scholarly journals Nucleation process of the 2011 northern Nagano earthquake from nearby seismic observations

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kengo Shimojo ◽  
Bogdan Enescu ◽  
Yuji Yagi ◽  
Tetsuya Takeda
Keyword(s):  
Regional Scale ◽  
Slow Slip ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Central Japan ◽  
Waveform Data ◽  
Local Seismicity ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Inland Earthquake ◽  
Subsequent Activation ◽  
Short Times

AbstractThe 2011 magnitude (M) 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake was followed by seismicity activation in inland areas throughout Japan. An outstanding case is the M6.2 Northern Nagano earthquake, central Japan, occurred 13-h after the megathrust event, approximately 400 km away from its epicenter. The physical processes relating the occurrence of megathrust earthquakes and subsequent activation of relatively large inland earthquakes are not well understood. Here we use waveform data of a dense local seismic network to reveal with an unprecedented resolution the complex mechanisms leading to the occurrence of the M6.2 earthquake. We show that previously undetected small earthquakes initiated along the Nagano earthquake source fault at relatively short times after the Tohoku-oki megathrust earthquake, and the local seismicity continued intermittently until the occurrence of the M6.2 event, being likely ‘modulated’ by the arrival of surface waves from large, remote aftershocks off-shore Tohoku. About 1-h before the Nagano earthquake, there was an acceleration of micro-seismicity migrating towards its hypocenter. Migration speeds indicate potential localized slow-slip, culminating with the occurrence of the large inland earthquake, with fluids playing a seismicity-activation role at a regional scale.

scholarly journals Regional-scale brine migration along vertical pathways due to CO<sub>2</sub> injection – Part 2: A simulated case study in the North German Basin

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 2751-2775 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Kissinger ◽  
Vera Noack ◽  
Stefan Knopf ◽  
Wilfried Konrad ◽  
Dirk Scheer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Scale ◽  
Variable Density ◽  
Salt Transport ◽  
Saline Aquifers ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
The North ◽  
Initial Salt ◽  
Deep Saline Aquifers ◽  
Salt Distribution ◽  
German Basin

Abstract. Saltwater intrusion into potential drinking water aquifers due to the injection of CO2 into deep saline aquifers is one of the hazards associated with the geological storage of CO2. Thus, in a site-specific risk assessment, models for predicting the fate of the displaced brine are required. Practical simulation of brine displacement involves decisions regarding the complexity of the model. The choice of an appropriate level of model complexity depends on multiple criteria: the target variable of interest, the relevant physical processes, the computational demand, the availability of data, and the data uncertainty. In this study, we set up a regional-scale geological model for a realistic (but not real) onshore site in the North German Basin with characteristic geological features for that region. A major aim of this work is to identify the relevant parameters controlling saltwater intrusion in a complex structural setting and to test the applicability of different model simplifications. The model that is used to identify relevant parameters fully couples flow in shallow freshwater aquifers and deep saline aquifers. This model also includes variable-density transport of salt and realistically incorporates surface boundary conditions with groundwater recharge. The complexity of this model is then reduced in several steps, by neglecting physical processes (two-phase flow near the injection well, variable-density flow) and by simplifying the complex geometry of the geological model. The results indicate that the initial salt distribution prior to the injection of CO2 is one of the key parameters controlling shallow aquifer salinization. However, determining the initial salt distribution involves large uncertainties in the regional-scale hydrogeological parameterization and requires complex and computationally demanding models (regional-scale variable-density salt transport). In order to evaluate strategies for minimizing leakage into shallow aquifers, other target variables can be considered, such as the volumetric leakage rate into shallow aquifers or the pressure buildup in the injection horizon. Our results show that simplified models, which neglect variable-density salt transport, can reach an acceptable agreement with more complex models.

scholarly journals A review of operational, regional-scale, chemical weather forecasting models in Europe

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Kukkonen ◽  
T. Olsson ◽  
D. M. Schultz ◽  
A. Baklanov ◽  
T. Klein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Chemical Species ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Air Chemistry

Abstract. Numerical models that combine weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry are here referred to as chemical weather forecasting models. Eighteen operational chemical weather forecasting models on regional and continental scales in Europe are described and compared in this article. Topics discussed in this article include how weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry models are integrated into chemical weather forecasting systems, how physical processes are incorporated into the models through parameterization schemes, how the model architecture affects the predicted variables, and how air chemistry and aerosol processes are formulated. In addition, we discuss sensitivity analysis and evaluation of the models, user operational requirements, such as model availability and documentation, and output availability and dissemination. In this manner, this article allows for the evaluation of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the various modelling systems and modelling approaches. Finally, this article highlights the most prominent gaps of knowledge for chemical weather forecasting models and suggests potential priorities for future research directions, for the following selected focus areas: emission inventories, the integration of numerical weather prediction and atmospheric chemical transport models, boundary conditions and nesting of models, data assimilation of the various chemical species, improved understanding and parameterization of physical processes, better evaluation of models against data and the construction of model ensembles.

scholarly journals Short-Term Interaction between Silent and Devastating Earthquakes in Mexico

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Víctor Cruz-Atienza ◽  
Josué Tago ◽  
Carlos Villafuerte ◽  
Meng Wei ◽  
Ricardo Garza-Girón ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Waves ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Slow Slip ◽  
Aseismic Slip ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Plate Interface ◽  
Slow Slip Events ◽  
Large Earthquakes

Abstract Triggering of large earthquakes on a fault that hosts aseismic slip or, conversely, triggering of slow slip events (SSE) by passing seismic waves involves seismological questions with major hazard implications. Just a few observations plausibly suggest that such interactions actually happen in nature. In this study we show that three recent devastating earthquakes in Mexico are likely related to SSEs, describing a cascade of events interacting with each other on a regional scale via quasi-static and/or dynamic perturbations. Such interaction seems to be conditioned by the transient memory of Earth materials subject to the “traumatic” stressing produced by the seismic waves of the great Mw8.2 Tehuantepec earthquake, which strongly disturbed the aseismic beating over a 650 km long segment of the subduction plate interface. Our results imply that seismic hazard in large populated areas is a short-term evolving function of seismotectonic processes that are often observable.

Episodic fluid pressure cycling controls earthquake sequences on subduction megathrusts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Dal Zilio ◽  
Taras Gerya
Keyword(s):  
Fluid Flow ◽  
Finite Difference Methods ◽  
Fluid Pressure ◽  
Seismogenic Zone ◽  
Slow Slip ◽  
Aseismic Slip ◽  
Earthquake Physics ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Pressure Cycling ◽  
Crustal Stresses

&lt;p&gt;A major goal in earthquake physics is to derive a constitutive framework for fault slip that captures the dependence of friction on lithology, sliding velocity, temperature, and pore fluid pressure. Here, we present a newly-developed two-phase flow numerical model &amp;#8212; which couples solid rock deformation and pervasive fluid flow &amp;#8212; to show how crustal stresses and fluid pressures within subducting megathrust evolve before and during slow slip and fast events. This unified 2D numerical framework couples inertial mechanical deformation and fluid flow by using finite difference methods, marker-in-cell technique, and poro-visco-elasto-plastic rheology. An adaptive time stepping allows the correct resolution of both long- and short-time scales, ranging from years to milliseconds during the dynamic propagation of dynamic rupture.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We investigate how permeability and its spatial distribution control the interseismic coupling along the megathrust interface, the interplay between seismic and aseismic slip, and the nucleation of large earthquakes. While a constant permeability leads to more regular seismic cycles, a depth dependent permeability contributes substantially to the development of two distinct megathrust zones: a shallow, locked seismogenic zone and a deep, narrow aseismic segment characterized by slow-slip events. Furthermore, we show that without requiring any specific friction law, our models reveal that permeability, episodic stress transfer and fluid pressure cycling control the predominant slip mode along the subduction megathrust. Furthermore, we analyze how rate dependent strength and dilatation affect rupture propagation and arrest. Our preliminary results show that fluid-solid poro-visco-elasto-plastic coupling behaves similarly to rate- and state-dependent friction. In this context, fluid pressure plays the role of state parameter whose time evolution is governed by: (i) the short-term elasto-plastic collapse of pores inside faults during the rupture (coseismic self-pressurization of faults) and (ii) the long-term pore-pressure diffusion from the faults into surrounding rocks (post- and interseismic relaxation of fluid pressure). This newly-developed numerical framework contributes to improve our understanding of the physical mechanisms underlying large megathrust earthquakes, and demonstrate that fluid play a key role in controlling the interplay between seismic and aseismic slip.&lt;/p&gt;

Modeling the Interaction between Slow Slip Events and Earthquake Ruptures in the Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica. 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lise Alalouf ◽  
Yajing Liu
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Computation Time ◽  
Seismogenic Zone ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Slow Slip ◽  
Coseismic Slip ◽  
Slow Slip Events ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Earthquake Ruptures

&lt;p&gt;Subduction zones are where the largest earthquakes occur. In the past few decades, scientists have also discovered the presence of episodic aseismic slip, including slow slip events (SSEs), along most of the subduction zones. However, it is still unclear how these SSEs can influence megathrust earthquake ruptures. The Costa Rica subduction zone is a particularly interesting area because a SSE was recorded 6 months before the 2012 Mw7.6 earthquake in the Nicoya Peninsula, suggesting a potential stress transfer from the SSE to the earthquake slip zone. SSEs beneath the Nicoya Peninsula were also recorded both updip and downdip the seismogenic zone, making it a unique area to study the complex interaction between SSEs and earthquakes.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;As most of the shallow SSEs were recorded around the Nicoya Peninsula, we chose to start using a 1D planar fault embedded in a homogeneous elastic half-space, with different dipping angles following several geometric profiles of the subduction fault beneath the Nicoya Peninsula section of the Costa Rica margin. This 1D modelling study allows us to better investigate the interaction between shallow and deep SSEs and megathrust earthquakes with high numerical resolution and relatively short computation time. The model provides information on the long-term seismic history by reproducing the different stages of the seismic cycle (interseismic slip, shallow and deep episodic slow slip, and coseismic slip).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We study the influence of the variation of numerical parameters and frictional properties on the recurrence interval, maximum slip velocity and cumulative slip of SSEs (both shallow and deep) and earthquakes and their interaction with each other. We then compare our results with GPS and seismic observations (i.e. cumulative slip, characteristic duration, moment rate, depth and size of the rupture, equivalent magnitude) to identify an optimal set of model parameters to understand the interaction between various modes of subduction fault deformation.&lt;/p&gt;

Episodic fluid pressure cycling controls the interplay between Slow Slip Events and Large Megathrust Earthquakes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudio Petrini ◽  
Luca Dal Zilio ◽  
Taras Gerya
Keyword(s):  
Fluid Flow ◽  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Finite Difference Methods ◽  
Fluid Pressure ◽  
Slow Slip ◽  
Aseismic Slip ◽  
Slow Slip Events ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Pressure Cycling ◽  
Crustal Stresses

&lt;p&gt;Slow slip events (SSEs) are part of a spectrum of aseismic processes that relieve tectonic stress on faults. Their occurrence in subduction zones have been suggested to trigger megathrust earthquakes due to perturbations in fluid pressure. However, examples to date have been poorly recorded and physical observations of temporal fluid pressure fluctuations through slow slip cycles remain elusive. Here, we use a newly developed two-phase flow numerical model &amp;#8212; which couples solid rock deformation and pervasive fluid flow &amp;#8212; to show how crustal stresses and fluid pressures within subducting megathrust evolve before and during slow slip and regular events. This unified 2D numerical framework couples inertial mechanical deformation and fluid flow by using finite difference methods, marker-in-cell technique, and poro-visco-elasto-plastic rheologies. Furthermore, an adaptive time stepping allows the correct resolution of both long- and short-time scales, ranging from years to milliseconds during the dynamic propagation of earthquake rupture.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Here we show how permeability and its spatial distribution control the degree of locking along the megathrust interface and the interplay between seismic and aseismic slip. While a constant permeability leads to more regular seismic cycles, a depth dependent permeability contributes substantially to the development of two distinct megathrust zones: a shallow, locked seismogenic zone and a deep, narrow aseismic segment characterized by SSEs. Furthermore, we show that without requiring any specific friction law, our model shows that permeability, episodic stress transfer and fluid pressure cycling control the predominant slip mode along the subduction megathrust. Specifically, we find that the up-dip propagation of episodic SSEs systematically decreases the fault strength due to a continuous accumulation and release of fluid pressure within overpressured subducting interface, thus affecting the timing of large megathrust earthquakes. These results contribute to improve our understanding of the physical driving forces underlying the interplay between seismic and aseismic slip, and demonstrate that slow slip events may prove useful for short-term earthquake forecasts.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Do slow slip events trigger large and great megathrust earthquakes?

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (10) ◽  
pp. eaat8472 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Voss ◽  
T. H. Dixon ◽  
Z. Liu ◽  
R. Malservisi ◽  
M. Protti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Power Law ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Failure Stress ◽  
Slow Slip ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Slow Slip Events ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Coulomb Failure ◽  
Earthquake Nucleation

Slow slip events have been suggested to trigger subduction earthquakes. However, examples to date have been poorly recorded, occurring offshore, where data are sparse. Better understanding of slow slip events and their influence on subsequent earthquakes is critical for hazard forecasts. We analyze a well-recorded event beginning 6 months before the 2012 Mw (moment magnitude) 7.6 earthquake in Costa Rica. The event migrates to the eventual megathrust rupture. Peak slip rate reached a maximum of 5 mm/day, 43 days before the earthquake, remaining high until the earthquake. However, changes in Mohr-Coulomb failure stress at the hypocenter were small (0.1 bar). Our data contradict models of earthquake nucleation that involve power law acceleration of slip and foreshocks. Slow slip events may prove useful for short-term earthquake forecasts.

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