Citizen science and niche modeling to track and forecast the expansion of the brown marmorated stinkbug Halyomorpha halys (Stål, 1855)

AbstractHalyomorpha halys (Stål, 1855), the Brown Marmorated StinkBug (BMSB) is a highly successful invasive species native to eastern Asia that managed to spread into North America and Europe in recent decades. We set up a citizen science survey to monitor BMSB expansion in France in 2012 and analyzed the data it yielded between 2012 and 2019 to examine the local expansion of the insect. These data were gathered with occurrences form various sources (GBIF, literature) to calibrate a species niche model and assess potential current BMSB range. We evaluated the potential changes to the BMSB range due to climate change by projecting the model according to 6 global circulation models (GCM) and the shared socio-economic pathways SSP245 in two time periods 2021–2040 and 2041–2060. Citizen science allowed to track BMSB expansion in France and provided information about its phenology and its habitat preferences. The model highlighted the potential for further range expansion in Europe and illustrated the impact of climate change. These results could help managing the current BMSB invasion and the framework of this survey could contribute to a better preparedness of phytosanitary authorities either for the BMSB or other invasive pests.

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Reservoir yield intercomparison of large dams in Jaguaribe Basin-CE in climate change scenarios

RBRH ◽

10.1590/2318-0331.011716033 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 22 (0) ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Renato de Oliveira Fernandes ◽

Cleiton da Silva Silveira ◽

Ticiana Marinho de Carvalho Studart ◽

Francisco de Assis de Souza Filho

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Global Circulation ◽

Global Circulation Models ◽

Great Divergence ◽

Rainfall Runoff Model ◽

The Impact ◽

Reservoir Yield

ABSTRACT Climate changes can have different impacts on water resources. Strategies to adapt to climate changes depend on impact studies. In this context, this study aimed to estimate the impact that changes in precipitation, projected by Global Circulation Models (GCMs) in the fifth report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5) may cause on reservoir yield (Q90) of large reservoirs (Castanhão and Banabuiú), located in the Jaguaribe River Basin, Ceará. The rainfall data are from 20 GCMs using two greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The precipitation projections were used as input data for the rainfall-runoff model (SMAP) and, after the reservoirs’ inflow generation, the reservoir yields were simulated in the AcquaNet model, for the time periods of 2040-2069 and 2070-2099. The results were analyzed and presented a great divergence, in sign (increase or decrease) and in the magnitude of change of Q90. However, most Q90 projections indicated reduction in both reservoirs, for the two periods, especially at the end of the 21th century.

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Climate Change impacts the <i>Water Highway</i> project in Morocco

10.5194/hess-2019-238 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Nabil El Moçayd ◽

Suchul Kang ◽

Elfatih A. B. Eltahir

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Study Region ◽

Global Circulation ◽

Global Circulation Models ◽

The North ◽

Local Water ◽

The Impact

Abstract. The hydrology of Morocco is characterized by a significant spatial variability. Precipitation follows a sharp gradient decreasing from the North to the South. In order to redistribute water, a project is proposed to transfer 860 million m3 per year from the wet north to the arid southern regions, {Water Highway}. The present study aims to address the viability of the project including the effects of climate change in the watersheds located in the North. We perform Regional Climate Model (RCMs) simulations over the study region using boundary conditions from five different global circulation models (GCMs) and following two emissions scenarios RCP4.5 (with mitigation) and RCP8.5 (business as usual). The impact on precipitation is assessed and the decrease of available water quantity is estimated. Under RCP8.5 the project is likely unfeasible. However, under the RCP4.5 a rescaled version of this project may be feasible depending on how much water is allocated to satisfy the local water demand.

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Climate Change May Imperil Tea Production in the Four Major Tea Producers According to Climate Prediction Models

Agronomy ◽

10.3390/agronomy10101536 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (10) ◽

pp. 1536

Author(s):

Sadeeka Layomi Jayasinghe ◽

Lalit Kumar

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sri Lanka ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Characteristic Curve ◽

Global Circulation ◽

Global Circulation Models ◽

Precipitation Seasonality ◽

Maxent Modelling ◽

Climatic Scenarios ◽

The Impact

The threat of accelerating climate change on species distribution now and in the future is a topic of increasing research interest. However, little work has been undertaken to assess how shifting climates will affect the suitability of tea cultivation. Therefore, we used MaxEnt modelling to project the impact of current and future climatic scenarios on the potential distribution of tea across the four tea-producing countries of China, India, Kenya and Sri Lanka. Projections were made for the years 2050 and 2070 with three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using seven bioclimatic predictors under three global circulation models (GCMs). The current and future habitat suitability for tea predicted by the models produced a high accuracy rate, with high areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) for all tested RCPs under the three GCMs for the four countries. The mean true skill statistic (TSS) values for tea in Sri Lanka, Kenya, India and China were 0.80, 0.91, 0.91, and 0.74, respectively. The kappa values (k) of the current and future models for all four countries ranged from 0.40 to 0.75, which indicates that the overall performance of the model was good. The precipitation seasonality and annual precipitation were found to be the most influential variables in Sri Lanka and India, respectively, while annual mean temperature was the most effective contributor for determining the suitability of habitat for tea in Kenya and China. An important proviso is that some existing tea-growing areas will face reduced suitability for future tea cultivation suggesting that by 2050 there will be a drastic reduction in the optimal suitability by averages of 26.2%, 14%, and 4.7% in Kenya, Sri Lanka and China, respectively. The optimal suitability will be reduced by 15.1%, 28.6% and 2.6% in Kenya, Sri Lanka and China, respectively, by 2070. India displays an advantage in projected future climates as it gains optimal suitability areas of 15% by 2050 and 25% by 2070.

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Selection of the Optimum Global Circulation Model that Mimics the Circumstances of Egypt

International Journal of Recent Technology and Engineering - 2 ◽

10.35940/ijrte.f1229.059120 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 784-793

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Performance Indicators ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Mean Bias Error ◽

Bias Error ◽

Global Circulation ◽

Global Circulation Models ◽

Average Absolute Relative Error ◽

The Impact ◽

Precipitation And Temperature

Egyptian researchers in the field of climatic changes and their effects on various sectors, such as agriculture, water resources, health and social usually operate one of the Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and rely on its results. They considered its results as facts and real and they study the impact without reference to the uncertainty in their results. This is a major drawback to study the effect of climate changes on different sectors since there is a persuasive variation in the results of different models. Therefore, the impact analysis may result in building policies and develop alternatives in a way that is related to the real situation of the area under study. It has been found that the best global model or recycling models for the case of Egypt must be neutralized. It is an imperative component for building future policies to study the impact of climate change properly. The current study focuses on assessing the results of GCMs in Egypt. Previous reviews showed that there is no study to address this issue on Egypt. Thus, the following methodology was followed. Forty GCMs in Coupled Model Inter-comparing Project (CMIP5), are analyzed for the variable’s precipitation and temperature. These GCMs were Evaluated for Egypt for the climate variable precipitation rate through dividing the entire Egypt area to 110 cells each cell is square 100 km x 100 km. The precipitation and temperature were evaluated through applying five performance indicators. These indicators are listed as follow: i) coefficient of correlation (CoC) , ii) normalized root mean (NRMSE), absolute normalized mean bias error (ANMBE), average absolute relative error (AARE) and skill score (SS).The Payoff matrix (40 GCMs versus 5 indicators) is developed and then the entropy technique for determination of the performance indicators’ weights is applied. The Normalization technique was applied for each season out of 4 seasons that are winter, spring, summer and autumn on the performance indicators. These weights are applied to assist for ranking the 40 GCMs. The Ranking of these GCMs were obtained through a multi-criterion decision-making outranking method (PROMETHEE-2). Finally, it is proven that the “MPI-ESM-LR” GCM is found to be the best model for predicting the climate change parameters, (precipitation and temperature), all over Egypt compared to the other 39 models. The MPI-ESM-LR GCM model is developed by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Germany. It is recommended that the results of climate change projects for Egypt up until year 2100 has to apply the output results of the GCM named MPI-ESM-LR rather than other GCMs as long as it gives the most proper results for climate change projection of Egypt.

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A crowdsourcing approach to track the expansion of the brown marmorated stinkbug Halyomorpha halys (Stål, 1855) in France

Biodiversity Data Journal ◽

10.3897/bdj.9.e66335 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

Author(s):

Marguerite Chartois ◽

Jean-Claude Streito ◽

Éric Pierre ◽

Jean-Marc Armand ◽

Jonathan Gaudin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Invasive Species ◽

North America ◽

Citizen Science ◽

Halyomorpha Halys ◽

Severe Damage ◽

Eastern Asia ◽

The South ◽

Krasnodar Region ◽

Set Up

Halyomorpha halys (Stål, 1855), the brown marmorated stinkbug (BMSB) is a highly successful invasive species, native to eastern Asia. It has managed to spread into North America and Europe in recent decades, causing severe damage to various crops. BMSB has been detected in Europe in 2004 and has since expanded in more than 20 countries from Sweden to Greece and Spain to Turkey, the South European Territory of Russia (Krasnodar region) and Abkhazia. In 2012, we set up a citizen science survey to monitor BMSB expansion in France. The present crowdsourcing survey was initiated in 2012 and provided a large number of occurrence points of BMSB. These data allowed to track the expansion of the species in France from 2012 to 2019 and brought information about its phenology and distribution in various habitats. The dataset comprises both valid and invalid sightings, thereby allowing us to examine changes in the quality of citizen reports during the course of the survey. Despite a large proportion of misidentifications, the survey provided a large number of valid occurrences. Furthermore, valuable information on hemipterans of Pentatomidae and Coreidae families entering habitations were also gathered. The dataset also illustrates that, although designed for a large public, the Agiir application was mostly used by urban dwellers with very few sightings stemming from professionals of agricultural sectors.

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Opportunities for harnessing the increased contribution of glacier and snowmelt flows in the Ganges basin

Water Policy ◽

10.2166/wp.2013.008 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 15 (S1) ◽

pp. 9-25 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Bharat R. Sharma ◽

Devaraj de Condappa

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Aquifer Recharge ◽

Eastern India ◽

Ganges Basin ◽

Additional Water ◽

Set Up ◽

Tehri Dam ◽

The Ganges ◽

The Impact ◽

The Himalaya

The topography of the Ganges basin is highly variable, with the steep mountainous region of the Himalaya upstream and the large fertile plains in eastern India and Bangladesh downstream. The contribution from the glaciers to streamflows is supposed to be significant but there is uncertainty surrounding the impact of climate change on glaciers. An application of the Water Evaluation and Planning model was set up which contained an experimental glaciers module. The model also examined the possible impacts of an increase in temperature. The contribution from glaciated areas is significant (60–75%) in the Upper Ganges but reduces downstream, falling to about 19% at Farakka. Climate change-induced rise in temperature logically increases the quantity of snow and ice that melts in glaciated areas. However, this impact decreases from upstream (+8% to +26% at Tehri dam) to downstream (+1% to +4% at Farakka). Such increases in streamflows may create flood events more frequently, or of higher magnitude, in the upper reaches. Potential strategies to exploit this additional water may include the construction of new dams/reservoir storage and the development of groundwater in the basin through managed aquifer recharge. The riparian states of India, Nepal and Bangladesh could harness this opportunity to alleviate physical water scarcity and improve productivity.

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Potential Impact of Climate Change on Schistosomiasis: A Global Assessment Attempt

Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease ◽

10.3390/tropicalmed3040117 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 3 (4) ◽

pp. 117 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Guo-Jing Yang ◽

Robert Bergquist

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Meteorological Model ◽

Ambient Temperatures ◽

Global Circulation ◽

Global Circulation Models ◽

Parasite Stage ◽

Near Future

Based on an ensemble of global circulation models (GCMs), four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and several ongoing and planned Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that global, average temperatures will increase by at least 1.5 °C in the near future and more by the end of the century if greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions are not genuinely tempered. While the RCPs are indicative of various amounts of GHGs in the atmosphere the CMIPs are designed to improve the workings of the GCMs. We chose RCP4.5 which represented a medium GHG emission increase and CMIP5, the most recently completed CMIP phase. Combining this meteorological model with a biological counterpart model accounted for replication and survival of the snail intermediate host as well as maturation of the parasite stage inside the snail at different ambient temperatures. The potential geographical distribution of the three main schistosome species: Schistosoma japonicum, S. mansoni and S. haematobium was investigated with reference to their different transmission capabilities at the monthly mean temperature, the maximum temperature of the warmest month(s) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month(s). The set of six maps representing the predicted situations in 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for each species mainly showed increased transmission areas for all three species but they also left room for potential shrinkages in certain areas.

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Variations of Drought Tendency, Frequency, and Characteristics and Their Responses to Climate Change under CMIP5 RCP Scenarios in Huai River Basin, China

Water ◽

10.3390/w11102174 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

pp. 2174 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Jingcai Wang ◽

Hui Lin ◽

Jinbai Huang ◽

Chenjuan Jiang ◽

Yangyang Xie ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Eastern China ◽

Cmip5 Models ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Global Circulation Models ◽

Huai River Basin ◽

Huai River ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

Huai River Basin (HRB) is an important food and industrial production area and a frequently drought-affected basin in eastern China. It is necessary to consider the future drought development for reducing the impact of drought disasters. Three global circulation models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), such as CNRM-CM5 (CNR), HadGEM2-ES (Had) and MIROC5 (MIR), were used to assessment the future drought conditions under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios, namely, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), statistical method, Mann-Kendall test, and run theory were carried out to study the variations of drought tendency, frequency, and characteristics and their responses to climate change. The research showed that the three CMIP5 models differ in describing the future seasonal and annual variations of precipitation and temperature in the basin and thus lead to the differences in describing drought trends, frequency, and drought characteristics, such as drought severity, drought duration, and drought intensity. However, the drought trend, frequency, and characteristics in the future are more serious than the history. The drought frequency and characteristics tend to be strengthened under the scenario of high concentration of RCP8.5, and the drought trend is larger than that of low concentration of RCP4.5. The lower precipitation and the higher temperature are the main factors affecting the occurrence of drought. All three CMIP5 models show that precipitation would increase in the future, but it could not offset the evapotranspiration loss caused by significant temperature rise. The serious risk of drought in the future is still higher. Considering the uncertainty of climate models for simulation and prediction, attention should be paid to distinguish the effects of different models in the future drought assessment.

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Assessing the impact of climate change on crop management in winter wheat – a case study for Eastern Austria

The Journal of Agricultural Science ◽

10.1017/s0021859616000083 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 154 (7) ◽

pp. 1153-1170 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

E. EBRAHIMI ◽

A. M. MANSCHADI ◽

R. W. NEUGSCHWANDTNER ◽

J EITZINGER ◽

S. THALER ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Management Practices ◽

Crop Management ◽

Weather Data ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Management Scenarios ◽

Global Circulation Models ◽

Daily Weather Data ◽

Eastern Austria ◽

The Impact

SUMMARYClimate change is expected to affect optimum agricultural management practices for autumn-sown wheat, especially those related to sowing date and nitrogen (N) fertilization. To assess the direction and quantity of these changes for an important production region in eastern Austria, the agricultural production systems simulator was parameterized, evaluated and subsequently used to predict yield production and grain protein content under current and future conditions. Besides a baseline climate (BL, 1981–2010), climate change scenarios for the period 2035–65 were derived from three Global Circulation Models (GCMs), namely CGMR, IPCM4 and MPEH5, with two emission scenarios, A1B and B1. Crop management scenarios included a combination of three sowing dates (20 September, 20 October, 20 November) with four N fertilizer application rates (60, 120, 160, 200 kg/ha). Each management scenario was run for 100 years of stochastically generated daily weather data. The model satisfactorily simulated productivity as well as water and N use of autumn- and spring-sown wheat crops grown under different N supply levels in the 2010/11 and 2011/12 experimental seasons. Simulated wheat yields under climate change scenarios varied substantially among the three GCMs. While wheat yields for the CGMR model increased slightly above the BL scenario, under IPCM4 projections they were reduced by 29 and 32% with low or high emissions, respectively. Wheat protein appears to increase with highest increments in the climate scenarios causing the largest reductions in grain yield (IPCM4 and MPEH-A1B). Under future climatic conditions, maximum wheat yields were predicted for early sowing (September 20) with 160 kg N/ha applied at earlier dates than the current practice.

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Assessment of impact of climate change on water resources: a long term analysis of the Great Lakes of North America

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-12-239-2008 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 239-255 ◽

Cited By ~ 48

Author(s):

E. McBean ◽

H. Motiee

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Water Resources ◽

North America ◽

Great Lakes ◽

Great Lakes Basin ◽

Historical Trends ◽

Global Circulation Models ◽

The Impact

Abstract. In the threshold of the appearance of global warming from theory to reality, extensive research has focused on predicting the impact of potential climate change on water resources using results from Global Circulation Models (GCMs). This research carries this further by statistical analyses of long term meteorological and hydrological data. Seventy years of historical trends in precipitation, temperature, and streamflows in the Great Lakes of North America are developed using long term regression analyses and Mann-Kendall statistics. The results generated by the two statistical procedures are in agreement and demonstrate that many of these variables are experiencing statistically significant increases over a seven-decade period. The trend lines of streamflows in the three rivers of St. Clair, Niagara and St. Lawrence, and precipitation levels over four of the five Great Lakes, show statistically significant increases in flows and precipitation. Further, precipitation rates as predicted using fitted regression lines are compared with scenarios from GCMs and demonstrate similar forecast predictions for Lake Superior. Trend projections from historical data are higher than GCM predictions for Lakes Michigan/Huron. Significant variability in predictions, as developed from alternative GCMs, is noted. Given the general agreement as derived from very different procedures, predictions extrapolated from historical trends and from GCMs, there is evidence that hydrologic changes particularly for the precipitation in the Great Lakes Basin may be demonstrating influences arising from global warming and climate change.

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