scholarly journals Revealing alarming changes in spatial coverage of joint hot and wet extremes across India

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Subhasmita Dash ◽  
Rajib Maity
Keyword(s):  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Base Line ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Multiple Variables ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Hydroclimatic Variables

AbstractCompared to any single hydroclimatic variable, joint extremes of multiple variables impact more heavily on the society and ecosystem. In this study, we developed new joint extreme indices (JEIs) using temperature and precipitation, and investigated its spatio-temporal variation with observed records across Indian mainland. Analysis shows an alarming rate of change in the spatial extent of some of the joint extreme phenomena, tending to remain above normal. For example, above normal hot nights and wet days events expands at a rate of 0.61% per year considering entire Indian mainland. If the historical trend continues at the same rate, consecutive cold and wet day events will drop below the threshold of mean value observed in the base line period (1981–2010) everywhere in the country by the end of the twenty-first century. In contrast, the entire country will be covered by hot nights and wet days events only (frequency of occurrence will cross the threshold of mean value observed in the base line period). This observation is also supported by the CMIP6 climate model outputs. It is further revealed that extremes of any single variable, i.e. either precipitation or temperature (e.g., Extreme Wet Days, Consecutive Wet Days, Hot Nights, and Cold Spell Duration Index), do not manifest such an alarming spatial expansion/contraction. This indicates that the consideration of the joint indices of hydroclimatic variables is more informative for the climate change impact analysis.

scholarly journals Incorrect Asian aerosols affecting the attribution and projection of regional climate change in CMIP6 models

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhili Wang ◽  
Lei Lin ◽  
Yangyang Xu ◽  
Huizheng Che ◽  
Xiaoye Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Wide Range

AbstractAnthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing has been shown as a critical driver of climate change over Asia since the mid-20th century. Here we show that almost all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models fail to capture the observed dipole pattern of aerosol optical depth (AOD) trends over Asia during 2006–2014, last decade of CMIP6 historical simulation, due to an opposite trend over eastern China compared with observations. The incorrect AOD trend over China is attributed to problematic AA emissions adopted by CMIP6. There are obvious differences in simulated regional aerosol radiative forcing and temperature responses over Asia when using two different emissions inventories (one adopted by CMIP6; the other from Peking university, a more trustworthy inventory) to driving a global aerosol-climate model separately. We further show that some widely adopted CMIP6 pathways (after 2015) also significantly underestimate the more recent decline in AA emissions over China. These flaws may bring about errors to the CMIP6-based regional climate attribution over Asia for the last two decades and projection for the next few decades, previously anticipated to inform a wide range of impact analysis.

High-Resolution Climate Change Impact Analysis on Expected Future Water Availability in the Upper Jordan Catchment and the Middle East

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1517-1531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Smiatek ◽  
Harald Kunstmann ◽  
Andreas Heckl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Full Range ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on the future water availability of the upper Jordan River (UJR) and its tributaries Dan, Snir, and Hermon located in the eastern Mediterranean is evaluated by a highly resolved distributed approach with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) run at 18.6- and 6.2-km resolution offline coupled with the Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM). The MM5 was driven with NCEP reanalysis for 1971–2000 and with Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), GCM forcings for 1971–2099. Because only one regional–global climate model combination was applied, the results may not give the full range of possible future projections. To describe the Dan spring behavior, the hydrological model was extended by a bypass approach to allow the fast discharge components of the Snir to enter the Dan catchment. Simulation results for the period 1976–2000 reveal that the coupled system was able to reproduce the observed discharge rates in the partially karstic complex terrain to a reasonable extent with the high-resolution 6.2-km meteorological input only. The performed future climate simulations show steadily rising temperatures with 2.2 K above the 1976–2000 mean for the period 2031–60 and 3.5 K for the period 2070–99. Precipitation trends are insignificant until the middle of the century, although a decrease of approximately 12% is simulated. For the end of the century, a reduction in rainfall ranging between 10% and 35% can be expected. Discharge in the UJR is simulated to decrease by 12% until 2060 and by 26% until 2099, both related to the 1976–2000 mean. The discharge decrease is associated with a lower number of high river flow years.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal impacts of aerial adulticide applications on populations of West Nile virus vector mosquitoes

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen M. Holcomb ◽  
Robert C. Reiner ◽  
Christopher M. Barker
Keyword(s):  
West Nile Virus ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Larval Habitat ◽  
Post Treatment ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Dispersal Ability ◽  
Stochastic Variation ◽  
West Nile ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract Background Aerial applications of insecticides that target adult mosquitoes are widely used to reduce transmission of West Nile virus to humans during periods of epidemic risk. However, estimates of the reduction in abundance following these treatments typically focus on single events, rely on pre-defined, untreated control sites and can vary widely due to stochastic variation in population dynamics and trapping success unrelated to the treatment. Methods To overcome these limitations, we developed generalized additive models fitted to mosquito surveillance data collected from CO2-baited traps in Sacramento and Yolo counties, California from 2006 to 2017. The models accounted for the expected spatial and temporal trends in the abundance of adult female Culex (Cx.) tarsalis and Cx. pipiens in the absence of aerial spraying. Estimates for the magnitude of deviation from baseline abundance following aerial spray events were obtained from the models. Results At 1-week post-treatment with full spatial coverage of the trapping area by pyrethroid or pyrethrin products, Cx. pipiens abundance was reduced by a mean of 52.4% (95% confidence intrval [CI] − 65.6, − 36.5%) while the use of at least one organophosphate pesticide resulted in a mean reduction of 76.2% (95% CI − 82.8, − 67.9%). For Cx. tarsalis, at 1-week post-treatment with full coverage there was a reduction in abundance of 30.7% (95% CI − 54.5, 2.5%). Pesticide class was not a significant factor contributing to the reduction. In comparison, repetition of spraying over three to four consecutive weeks resulted in similar estimates for Cx. pipiens and estimates of somewhat smaller magnitude for Cx. tarsalis. Conclusions Aerial adulticides are effective for achieving a rapid short-term reduction of the abundance of the primary West Nile virus vectors, Cx. tarsalis and Cx. pipiens. A larger magnitude of reduction was estimated in Cx. pipiens, possibly due to the species’ focal distribution. Effects of aerial sprays on Cx. tarsalis populations are likely modulated by the species’ large dispersal ability, population sizes and vast productive larval habitat present in the study area. Our modeling approach provides a new way to estimate effects of public health pesticides on vector populations using routinely collected observational data and accounting for spatio-temporal trends and contextual factors like weather and habitat. This approach does not require pre-selected control sites and expands upon past studies that have focused on the effects of individual aerial treatment events.

scholarly journals Stable Carbon and Sulfur Isotope Characteristics of Stream Water in a Typical Karst Small Catchment, Southwest China

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 523
Author(s):  
Yang Tang ◽  
Ruiyin Han
Keyword(s):  
Water Samples ◽  
Chemical Weathering ◽  
Stream Water ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Small Catchment ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Δ13c Value ◽  
Different Seasons ◽  
Sources Of Solutes ◽  
Surface Water Samples

Surface water samples from the Maolan National Natural Reserved Park (MNNRP) were analyzed from Sept. 2013 to June 2014, for major ion concentrations (K+, Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+, Cl−, SO42−, HCO3−), δ13C-DIC and δ34S-SO42− to quantify the sources of solutes and chemical weathering. The results show that HCO3− and SO42− are the main anions in Banzhai watershed, which account for 86.2 and 10.4% of the total anion equivalent, respectively. While Ca2+ and Mg2+ account for 76.9 and 20.5%, respectively. Considerable Mg2+ in stream water indicates that it may be affected by dolomite weathering. stream water samples present the δ13C-DIC values in the range of −16.9‰~−10.8‰ (mean value was −13.9‰), which were lower than that of the groundwater. The δ34S-SO42− values ranged from −15.2‰ to 1.7‰ (mean value was −4.4‰). There was a negative correlation between HCO3− content and δ13C value, implying the result of the interaction of temperature and precipitation intensity in different seasons. The significant positive correlation between SO42− content and δ13C-DIC indicates that H2SO4 may be involved in the weathering process of carbonate rocks in small watershed scale. The content of SO42− in a school sample site was much higher than that of other sample sites for the interference from human sources. The δ34S values show that the average δ34S-SO42− in most sites is close to the δ34S isotopic values of Guizhou coal and rain, indicating that they may be affected by local coal.

scholarly journals Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 622
Author(s):  
Tugba Ozturk ◽  
F. Sibel Saygili-Araci ◽  
M. Levent Kurnaz
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Pronounced Increase ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Extreme Indices

In this study, projected changes in climate extreme indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were investigated over Middle East and North Africa. Changes in the daily maximum and minimum temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices were analyzed for the end of the 21st century compared to the reference period 1971–2000 using regional climate model simulations. Regional climate model, RegCM4.4 was used to downscale two different global climate model outputs to 50 km resolution under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results generally indicate an intensification of temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices with increasing radiative forcing. In particular, an increase in annual minimum of daily minimum temperatures is more pronounced over the northern part of Mediterranean Basin and tropics. High increase in warm nights and warm spell duration all over the region with a pronounced increase in tropics are projected for the period of 2071–2100 together with decrease or no change in cold extremes. According to the results, a decrease in total wet-day precipitation and increase in dry spells are expected for the end of the century.

Future Extreme Climates Projection over Huang-Huai-Hai Region of China

2014 ◽  
Vol 955-959 ◽  
pp. 3887-3892 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huang He Gu ◽  
Zhong Bo Yu ◽  
Ji Gan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Huai River ◽  
The Future

This study projects the future extreme climate changes over Huang-Huai-Hai (3H) region in China using a regional climate model (RegCM4). The RegCM4 performs well in “current” climate (1970-1999) simulations by compared with the available surface station data, focusing on near-surface air temperature and precipitation. Future climate changes are evaluated based on experiments driven by European-Hamburg general climate model (ECHAM5) in A1B future scenario (2070-2099). The results show that the annual temperature increase about 3.4 °C-4.2 °C and the annual precipitation increase about 5-15% in most of 3H region at the end of 21st century. The model predicts a generally less frost days, longer growing season, more hot days, no obvious change in heat wave duration index, larger maximum five-day rainfall, more heavy rain days, and larger daily rainfall intensity. The results indicate a higher risk of floods in the future warmer climate. In addition, the consecutive dry days in Huai River Basin will increase, indicating more serve drought and floods conditions in this region.

scholarly journals Emerging Anthropogenic Influences on the Southcentral Alaska Temperature and Precipitation Extremes and Related Fires in 2019

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 82
Author(s):  
Uma S. Bhatt ◽  
Rick T. Lader ◽  
John E. Walsh ◽  
Peter A. Bieniek ◽  
Richard Thoman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Historical Context ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Southcentral Alaska ◽  
Meteorological Observations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

The late-season extreme fire activity in Southcentral Alaska during 2019 was highly unusual and consequential. Firefighting operations had to be extended by a month in 2019 due to the extreme conditions of hot summer temperature and prolonged drought. The ongoing fires created poor air quality in the region containing most of Alaska’s population, leading to substantial impacts to public health. Suppression costs totaled over $70 million for Southcentral Alaska. This study’s main goals are to place the 2019 season into historical context, provide an attribution analysis, and assess future changes in wildfire risk in the region. The primary tools are meteorological observations and climate model simulations from the NCAR CESM Large Ensemble (LENS). The 2019 fire season in Southcentral Alaska included the hottest and driest June–August season over the 1979–2019 period. The LENS simulation analysis suggests that the anthropogenic signal of increased fire risk had not yet emerged in 2019 because of the CESM’s internal variability, but that the anthropogenic signal will emerge by the 2040–2080 period. The effect of warming temperatures dominates the effect of enhanced precipitation in the trend towards increased fire risk.

scholarly journals Validation of the HIRHAM-Simulated Indian Summer Monsoon Circulation

2010 ◽  
Vol 2010 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Polanski ◽  
Annette Rinke ◽  
Klaus Dethloff
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Topographic Features ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Simulated Precipitation

The regional climate model HIRHAM has been applied over the Asian continent to simulate the Indian monsoon circulation under present-day conditions. The model is driven at the lateral and lower boundaries by European reanalysis (ERA40) data for the period from 1958 to 2001. Simulations with a horizontal resolution of 50 km are carried out to analyze the regional monsoon patterns. The focus in this paper is on the validation of the long-term summer monsoon climatology and its variability concerning circulation, temperature, and precipitation. Additionally, the monsoonal behavior in simulations for wet and dry years has been investigated and compared against several observational data sets. The results successfully reproduce the observations due to a realistic reproduction of topographic features. The simulated precipitation shows a better agreement with a high-resolution gridded precipitation data set over the central land areas of India and in the higher elevated Tibetan and Himalayan regions than ERA40.

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