scholarly journals Electricity-consumption data reveals the economic impact and industry recovery during the pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinlei Wang ◽  
Caomingzhe Si ◽  
Jinjin Gu ◽  
Guolong Liu ◽  
Wenxuan Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Mobility Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Consumption Data ◽  
The Impact

AbstractCoping with the outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), many countries have implemented public-health measures and movement restrictions to prevent the spread of the virus. However, the strict mobility control also brought about production stagnation and market disruption, resulting in a severe worldwide economic crisis. Quantifying the economic stagnation and predicting post-pandemic recovery are imperative issues. Besides, it is significant to examine how the impact of COVID-19 on economic activities varied with industries. As a reflection of enterprises’ production output, high-frequency electricity-consumption data is an intuitive and effective tool for evaluating the economic impact of COVID-19 on different industries. In this paper, we quantify and compare economic impacts on the electricity consumption of different industries in eastern China. In order to address this problem, we conduct causal analysis using a difference-in-difference (DID) estimation model to analyze the effects of multi-phase public-health measures. Our model employs the electricity-consumption data ranging from 2019 to 2020 of 96 counties in the Eastern China region, which covers three main economic sectors and their 53 sub-sectors. The results indicate that electricity demand of all industries (other than information transfer industry) rebounded after the initial shock, and is back to pre-pandemic trends after easing the control measures at the end of May 2020. Emergency response, the combination of all countermeasures to COVID-19 in a certain period, affected all industries, and the higher level of emergency response with stricter movement control resulted in a greater decrease in electricity consumption and production. The pandemic outbreak has a negative-lag effect on industries, and there is greater resilience in industries that are less dependent on human mobility for economic production and activities.

scholarly journals Individually Optimal Choices can be Collectively Disastrous in COVID-19 Disease Control

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madison Stoddard ◽  
Debra Van Egeren ◽  
Kaitlyn Johnson ◽  
Smriti Rao ◽  
Josh Furgeson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Complete Suppression ◽  
Natural Immunity ◽  
Endemic Disease ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: The word ‘pandemic’ conjures dystopian images of bodies stacked in the streets and societies on the brink of collapse. Despite this frightening picture, denialism and noncompliance with public health measures are common in the historical record, for example during the 1918 Influenza pandemic or the 2015 Ebola epidemic. The unique characteristics of SARS-CoV-2—its high basic reproduction number (R0), time-limited natural immunity and considerable potential for asymptomatic spread—exacerbate the public health repercussions of noncompliance with interventions (such as vaccines and masks) to limit disease transmission. Our work explores the rationality and impact of noncompliance with COVID-19 disease control measures. Methods: In this work, we used game theory to explore when noncompliance confers a perceived benefit to individuals. We then used epidemiological modeling to predict the impact of noncompliance on control of COVID-19, demonstrating that the presence of a noncompliant subpopulation prevents suppression of disease spread. Results: Our modeling demonstrating that noncompliance is a Nash equilibrium under a broad set of conditions, and that the existence of a noncompliant population can result in extensive endemic disease in the long-term after a return to pre-pandemic social and economic activity. Endemic disease poses a threat for both compliant and noncompliant individuals; all community members are protected if complete suppression is achieved, which is only possible with a high degree of compliance. For interventions that are highly effective at preventing disease spread, however, the consequences of noncompliance are borne disproportionately by noncompliant individuals. Conclusions: In sum, our work demonstrates the limits of free-market approaches to compliance with disease control measures during a pandemic. The act of noncompliance with disease intervention measures creates a negative externality, rendering COVID-19 disease control ineffective in the short term and making complete suppression impossible in the long term. Our work underscores the importance of developing effective strategies for prophylaxis through public health measures aimed at complete suppression and the need to focus on compliance at a population level.

scholarly journals Public health implications of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: a rapid scoping review

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. e055781
Author(s):  
Mari Somerville ◽  
Janet A Curran ◽  
Justine Dol ◽  
Leah Boulos ◽  
Lynora Saxinger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Systematic Reviews ◽  
Scoping Review ◽  
Data Extraction ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Eligibility Criteria ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
Scoping Reviews ◽  
The Impact

ObjectivesThe four SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC; Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta) identified by May 2021 are highly transmissible, yet little is known about their impact on public health measures. We aimed to synthesise evidence related to public health measures and VOC.DesignA rapid scoping review.Data sourcesOn 11 May 2021, seven databases (MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Central Register of Controlled Trials, Epistemonikos’ L-OVE on COVID-19, medRxiv, bioRxiv) were searched for terms related to VOC, public health measures, transmission and health systems. No limit was placed on date of publication.Eligibility criteriaStudies were included if they reported on any of the four VOCs and public health measures, and were available in English. Only studies reporting on data collected after October 2020, when the first VOC was reported, were included.Data extraction and synthesisTitles, abstracts and full-text articles were screened by two independent reviewers. Data extraction was completed by two independent reviewers using a standardised form. Data synthesis and reporting followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews guidelines.ResultsOf the 37 included studies, the majority assessed the impact of Alpha (n=32) and were conducted in Europe (n=12) or the UK (n=9). Most were modelling studies (n=28) and preprints (n=28). The majority of studies reported on infection control measures (n=17), followed by modifying approaches to vaccines (n=13), physical distancing (n=6) and either mask wearing, testing or hand washing (n=2). Findings suggest an accelerated vaccine rollout is needed to mitigate the spread of VOC.ConclusionsThe increased severity of VOC requires proactive public health measures to control their spread. Further research is needed to strengthen the evidence for continued implementation of public health measures in conjunction with vaccine rollout. With no studies reporting on Delta, there is a need for further research on this and other emerging VOC on public health measures.

scholarly journals Accounting for imported cases in estimating the time-varying reproductive number of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim K. Tsang ◽  
Peng Wu ◽  
Eric H. Y. Lau ◽  
Benjamin J. Cowling
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Considerable Proportion ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Local Transmission

ABSTRACTBackgroundEstimating the time-varying reproductive number, Rt, is critical for monitoring transmissibility of an emerging infectious disease during outbreaks. When local transmission is effectively suppressed, imported cases could substantially impact transmission dynamics.MethodsWe developed methodology to estimate separately the Rt for local cases and imported cases, since certain public health measures aim only to reduce onwards transmission from imported cases. We applied the framework to data on COVID-19 outbreaks in Hong Kong.ResultsWe estimated that the Rt for local cases decreased from above one in the early phase of outbreak to below one after tightening of public health measures. Assuming the same infectiousness of local and imported cases underestimated Rt for local cases due to control measures targeting travelers.ConclusionsWhen a considerable proportion of all cases are imported, the impact of imported cases in estimating Rt is critical. The methodology described here can allow for differential infectiousness of local imported cases.

scholarly journals Emotional and Mental Wellbeing Following COVID-19 Public Health Measures on People Living With Dementia and Carers

2021 ◽  
pp. 089198872199681
Author(s):  
Kerry Hanna ◽  
Clarissa Giebel ◽  
Hilary Tetlow ◽  
Kym Ward ◽  
Justine Shenton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mental Health ◽  
Social Support ◽  
Support Services ◽  
Mental Wellbeing ◽  
Daily Lives ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Social Support Services ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Background: To date, there appears to be no evidence on the longer-term impacts caused by COVID-19 and its related public health restrictions on some of the most vulnerable in our societies. The aim of this research was to explore the change in impact of COVID-19 public health measures on the mental wellbeing of people living with dementia (PLWD) and unpaid carers. Method: Semi-structured, follow-up telephone interviews were conducted with PLWD and unpaid carers between June and July 2020. Participants were asked about their experiences of accessing social support services during the pandemic, and the impact of restrictions on their daily lives. Results: 20 interviews were conducted and thematically analyzed, which produced 3 primary themes concerning emotional responses and impact to mental health and wellbeing during the course of the pandemic: 1) Impact on mental health during lockdown, 2) Changes to mental health following easing of public health, and 3) The long-term effect of public health measures. Conclusions: The findings from this research shed light on the longer-term psychological impacts of the UK Government’s public health measures on PLWD and their carers. The loss of social support services was key in impacting this cohort mentally and emotionally, displaying a need for better psychological support, for both carers and PLWD.

scholarly journals The impact of COVID-19 on the care of people living with noncommunicable diseases in low- and middle-income countries: an online survey of physicians and pharmacists in nine countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Bullen ◽  
Jessica McCormack ◽  
Amanda Calder ◽  
Varsha Parag ◽  
Kannan Subramaniam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
World Health ◽  
Noncommunicable Diseases ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Low And Middle Income

Abstract Background: The global COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted healthcare worldwide. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where people may have limited access to affordable quality care, the COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to have a particularly adverse impact on the health and healthcare of individuals with noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). A World Health Organization survey found that disruption of delivery of healthcare for NCDs was more significant in LMICs than in high-income countries. However, the study did not elicit insights into the day-to-day impacts of COVID-19 on healthcare by front-line healthcare workers (FLHCWs). Aim: To gain insights directly from FLHCWs working in countries with a high NCD burden, and thereby identify opportunities to improve the provision of healthcare during the current pandemic and in future healthcare emergencies. Methods: We recruited selected frontline healthcare workers (general practitioners, pharmacists, and other medical specialists) from nine countries to complete an online survey (n = 1347). Survey questions focused on the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on clinical practice and NCDs; barriers to clinical care during the pandemic; and innovative responses to the many challenges presented by the pandemic. Findings: The majority of FLHCWs responding to our survey reported that their care of patients had been impacted both adversely and positively by the public health measures imposed. Most FLHCs (95%) reported a deterioration in the mental health of their patients. Conclusions: Continuity of care for NCDs as part of pandemic preparedness is needed so that chronic conditions are not exacerbated by public health measures and the direct impacts of the pandemic.

scholarly journals “No Entry into New South Wales”: COVID-19 and the Historic and Contemporary Trajectories of the Effects of Border Closures on an Australian Cross-Border Community

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 610
Author(s):  
Dirk H. R. Spennemann
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
New South ◽  
Community Integration ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
The State ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Border Community ◽  
South Wales

Given its intensity, rapid spread, geographic reach and multiple waves of infections, the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020/21 became a major global disruptor with a truly cross-sectoral impact, surpassing even the 1918/19 influenza epidemic. Public health measures designed to contain the spread of the disease saw the cessation of international travel as well as the establishment of border closures between and within countries. The social and economic impact was considerable. This paper examines the effects of the public health measures of “ring-fencing” and of prolonged closures of the state border between New South Wales and Victoria (Australia), placing the events of 2020/21 into the context of the historic and contemporary trajectories of the border between the two states. It shows that while border closures as public-health measures had occurred in the past, their social and economic impact had been comparatively negligible due to low cross-border community integration. Concerted efforts since the mid-1970s have led to effective and close integration of employment and services, with over a quarter of the resident population of the two border towns commuting daily across the state lines. As a result, border closures and state-based lockdown directives caused significant social disruption and considerable economic cost to families and the community as a whole. One of the lessons of the 2020/21 pandemic will be to either re-evaluate the wisdom of a close social and economic integration of border communities, which would be a backwards step, or to future-proof these communities by developing strategies, effectively public health management plans, to avoid a repeat when the next pandemic strikes.

scholarly journals Harnessing testing strategies and public health measures to avert COVID-19 outbreaks during ocean cruises

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerardo Chowell ◽  
Sushma Dahal ◽  
Raquel Bono ◽  
Kenji Mizumoto
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Contact Network ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Testing Strategies ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

AbstractTo ensure the safe operation of schools, workplaces, nursing homes, and other businesses during COVID-19 pandemic there is an urgent need to develop cost-effective public health strategies. Here we focus on the cruise industry which was hit early by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 40 cruise ships reporting COVID-19 infections. We apply mathematical modeling to assess the impact of testing strategies together with social distancing protocols on the spread of the novel coronavirus during ocean cruises using an individual-level stochastic model of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. We model the contact network, the potential importation of cases arising during shore excursions, the temporal course of infectivity at the individual level, the effects of social distancing strategies, different testing scenarios characterized by the test’s sensitivity profile, and testing frequency. Our findings indicate that PCR testing at embarkation and daily testing of all individuals aboard, together with increased social distancing and other public health measures, should allow for rapid detection and isolation of COVID-19 infections and dramatically reducing the probability of onboard COVID-19 community spread. In contrast, relying only on PCR testing at embarkation would not be sufficient to avert outbreaks, even when implementing substantial levels of social distancing measures.

scholarly journals Rapid disappearance of influenza following the implementation of COVID-19 mitigation measures in Hamilton, Ontario

2021 ◽  
Vol 47 (04) ◽  
pp. 202-208
Author(s):  
Kevin Zhang ◽  
Avika Misra ◽  
Patrick J Kim ◽  
Seyed M Moghadas ◽  
Joanne M Langley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
Respiratory Virus ◽  
Respiratory Viruses ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Nasopharyngeal Swab ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Bayesian Linear Regression ◽  
Syncytial Virus ◽  
The Impact

Background: Public health measures, such as physical distancing and closure of schools and non-essential services, were rapidly implemented in Canada to interrupt the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We sought to investigate the impact of mitigation measures during the spring wave of COVID-19 on the incidence of other laboratory-confirmed respiratory viruses in Hamilton, Ontario. Methods: All nasopharyngeal swab specimens (n=57,503) submitted for routine respiratory virus testing at a regional laboratory serving all acute-care hospitals in Hamilton between January 2010 and June 2020 were reviewed. Testing for influenza A and B, respiratory syncytial virus, human metapneumovirus, parainfluenza I–III, adenovirus, and rhinovirus/enterovirus was done routinely using a laboratory-developed polymerase chain reaction multiplex respiratory viral panel. A Bayesian linear regression model was used to determine the trend of positivity rates of all influenza samples for the first 26 weeks of each year from 2010 to 2019. The mean positivity rate of Bayesian inference was compared with the weekly reported positivity rate of influenza samples in 2020. Results: The positivity rate of influenza in 2020 diminished sharply following the population-wide implementation of COVID-19 interventions. Weeks 12–26 reported 0% positivity for influenza, with the exception of 0.1% reported in week 13. Conclusion: Public health measures implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with a reduced incidence of other respiratory viruses and should be considered to mitigate severe seasonal influenza and other respiratory virus pandemics.

scholarly journals Quantifying contact patterns in response to COVID-19 public health measures in Canada

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabrielle Brankston ◽  
Eric Merkley ◽  
David N. Fisman ◽  
Ashleigh R. Tuite ◽  
Zvonimir Poljak ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Skewed Distribution ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Region Of Residence ◽  
Control Procedures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Made In

Abstract Background A variety of public health measures have been implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada to reduce contact between individuals. The objective of this study was to provide empirical contact pattern data to evaluate the impact of public health measures, the degree to which social contacts rebounded to normal levels, as well as direct public health efforts toward age- and location-specific settings. Methods Four population-based cross-sectional surveys were administered to members of a paid panel representative of Canadian adults by age, gender, official language, and region of residence during May (Survey 1), July (Survey 2), September (Survey 3), and December (Survey 4) 2020. A total of 4981 (Survey 1), 2493 (Survey 2), 2495 (Survey 3), and 2491 (Survey 4) respondents provided information about the age and setting for each direct contact made in a 24-h period. Contact matrices were constructed and contacts for those under the age of 18 years imputed. The next generation matrix approach was used to estimate the reproduction number (Rt) for each survey. Respondents with children under 18 years estimated the number of contacts their children made in school and extracurricular settings. Results Estimated Rt values were 0.49 (95% CI: 0.29–0.69) for May, 0.48 (95% CI: 0.29–0.68) for July, 1.06 (95% CI: 0.63–1.52) for September, and 0.81 (0.47–1.17) for December. The highest proportion of reported contacts occurred within the home (51.3% in May), in ‘other’ locations (49.2% in July) and at work (66.3 and 65.4% in September and December). Respondents with children reported an average of 22.7 (95% CI: 21.1–24.3) (September) and 19.0 (95% CI 17.7–20.4) (December) contacts at school per day per child in attendance. Conclusion The skewed distribution of reported contacts toward workplace settings in September and December combined with the number of reported school-related contacts suggest that these settings represent important opportunities for transmission emphasizing the need to support and ensure infection control procedures in both workplaces and schools.

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