Predator-prey instability: individual-level mechanisms for population-level results

AbstractSpecialist predators with oscillating dynamics are often strongly affected by the population dynamics of their prey, yet they do not always participate in a predator-prey cycle. Only those that exert strong population regulation of their prey do so. Inferring the strength and direction of the predator-prey coupling from time series therefore requires contrasting models with top-down versus bottom-up predator-prey dynamics. We examine such population-level coupling using multivariate autoregressive models. The models translate several hypotheses for the joint dynamics of population densities of the Icelandic gyrfalcon Falco rusticolus, and its prey, the rock ptarmigan Lagopus muta. The dynamics of both species are likely not only linked to each other but also to stochastic weather variables acting as confounding factors on the joint dynamics. The classical MAR(1) model, used most often in ecology, predicts that the times series exhibit predator-prey feedback (i.e., Granger causality): the predator helps to explain prey dynamics and the prey helps to explain predator dynamics. Weather, in the form of spring temperature, influences gyrfalcon population growth but not ptarmigan population growth, despite individual-level evidence that ptarmigan chicks can be strongly affected by weather. MAR(2) models, allowing for species to cycle independently from each other, further suggests alternative scenarios where a cyclic prey influence its predator but not the other way around; such bottom-up models produce a better fit but less realistic cross-correlation patterns. Simulations of MAR(1) and MAR(2) models further demonstrate that the top-down MAR(1) models are most likely to be misidentified as bottom-up dynamics than vice-versa. We therefore conclude that predator-prey feedback in the gyrfalcon-ptarmigan system is very likely, though bottom-up dynamics cannot be excluded with certainty. We finally discuss what sort of information is needed to advance the characterization of joint predator-prey dynamics in birds and other vertebrates.

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Complex eco-evolutionary dynamics induced by the coevolution of predator–prey movement strategies

Evolutionary Ecology ◽

10.1007/s10682-021-10140-x ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Christoph Netz ◽

Hanno Hildenbrandt ◽

Franz J. Weissing

Keyword(s):

Degrees Of Freedom ◽

Evolutionary Dynamics ◽

Rapid Evolution ◽

Population Level ◽

Coarse Grained ◽

Theoretical Research ◽

Strategy Space ◽

Predator Prey ◽

Individual Level ◽

Movement Strategies

AbstractThe coevolution of predators and prey has been the subject of much empirical and theoretical research that produced intriguing insights into the interplay of ecology and evolution. To allow for mathematical analysis, models of predator–prey coevolution are often coarse-grained, focussing on population-level processes and largely neglecting individual-level behaviour. As selection is acting on individual-level properties, we here present a more mechanistic approach: an individual-based simulation model for the coevolution of predators and prey on a fine-grained resource landscape, where features relevant for ecology (like changes in local densities) and evolution (like differences in survival and reproduction) emerge naturally from interactions between individuals. Our focus is on predator–prey movement behaviour, and we present a new method for implementing evolving movement strategies in an efficient and intuitively appealing manner. Throughout their lifetime, predators and prey make repeated movement decisions on the basis of their movement strategies. Over the generations, the movement strategies evolve, as individuals that successfully survive and reproduce leave their strategy to more descendants. We show that the movement strategies in our model evolve rapidly, thereby inducing characteristic spatial patterns like spiral waves and static spots. Transitions between these patterns occur frequently, induced by antagonistic coevolution rather than by external events. Regularly, evolution leads to the emergence and stable coexistence of qualitatively different movement strategies within the same population. Although the strategy space of our model is continuous, we often observe the evolution of discrete movement types. We argue that rapid evolution, coexistent movement types, and phase shifts between different ecological regimes are not a peculiarity of our model but a result of more realistic assumptions on eco-evolutionary feedbacks and the number of evolutionary degrees of freedom.

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Blood Pressure Trajectories Across the Life Course

American Journal of Hypertension ◽

10.1093/ajh/hpab009 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 34 (3) ◽

pp. 234-241

Author(s):

Norrina B Allen ◽

Sadiya S Khan

Keyword(s):

Blood Pressure ◽

Measurement Errors ◽

Clinical Care ◽

Population Level ◽

Cumulative Exposure ◽

Older Adulthood ◽

Individual Level ◽

The Life Course ◽

Level Group ◽

Improve Health

Abstract High blood pressure (BP) is a strong modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Longitudinal BP patterns themselves may reflect the burden of risk and vascular damage due to prolonged cumulative exposure to high BP levels. Current studies have begun to characterize BP patterns as a trajectory over an individual’s lifetime. These BP trajectories take into account the absolute BP levels as well as the slope of BP changes throughout the lifetime thus incorporating longitudinal BP patterns into a single metric. Methodologic issues that need to be considered when examining BP trajectories include individual-level vs. population-level group-based modeling, use of distinct but complementary BP metrics (systolic, diastolic, mean arterial, mid, and pulse pressure), and potential for measurement errors related to varied settings, devices, and number of readings utilized. There appear to be very specific developmental periods during which divergent BP trajectories may emerge, specifically adolescence, the pregnancy period, and older adulthood. Lifetime BP trajectories are impacted by both individual-level and community-level factors and have been associated with incident hypertension, multimorbidity (CVD, renal disease, cognitive impairment), and overall life expectancy. Key unanswered questions remain around the additive predictive value of BP trajectories, intergenerational contributions to BP patterns (in utero BP exposure), and potential genetic drivers of BP patterns. The next phase in understanding BP trajectories needs to focus on how best to incorporate this knowledge into clinical care to reduce the burden of hypertensive-related outcomes and improve health equity.

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Examining the Effects of the Sacramento Dockless E-Bike Share on Bicycling and Driving

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13010368 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 368

Author(s):

Dillon T. Fitch ◽

Hossain Mohiuddin ◽

Susan L. Handy

Keyword(s):

Travel Behavior ◽

Regression Models ◽

Population Level ◽

Panel Survey ◽

Multilevel Regression ◽

Combine Data ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Individual Level ◽

Before And After ◽

Bike Share

One way cities are looking to promote bicycling is by providing publicly or privately operated bike-share services, which enable individuals to rent bicycles for one-way trips. Although many studies have examined the use of bike-share services, little is known about how these services influence individual-level travel behavior more generally. In this study, we examine the behavior of users and non-users of a dockless, electric-assisted bike-share service in the Sacramento region of California. This service, operated by Jump until suspended due to the coronavirus pandemic, was one of the largest of its kind in the U.S., and spanned three California cities: Sacramento, West Sacramento, and Davis. We combine data from a repeat cross-sectional before-and-after survey of residents and a longitudinal panel survey of bike-share users with the goal of examining how the service influenced individual-level bicycling and driving. Results from multilevel regression models suggest that the effect of bike-share on average bicycling and driving at the population level is likely small. However, our results indicate that people who have used-bike share are likely to have increased their bicycling because of bike-share.

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Medication Adherence: Expanding the Conceptual Framework

American Journal of Hypertension ◽

10.1093/ajh/hpab046 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Marie Krousel-Wood ◽

Leslie S Craig ◽

Erin Peacock ◽

Emily Zlotnick ◽

Samantha O’Connell ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Older Adults ◽

Medication Adherence ◽

Conceptual Framework ◽

Clinical Outcomes ◽

Implicit Attitudes ◽

Explanatory Power ◽

Population Level ◽

Time Preferences ◽

Adherence Behavior ◽

Individual Level

Abstract Interventions targeting traditional barriers to antihypertensive medication adherence (AHMA) have been developed and evaluated, with evidence of modest improvements in adherence. Translation of these interventions into population-level improvements in adherence and clinical outcomes among older adults remains suboptimal. From the Cohort Study of Medication Adherence among Older adults (CoSMO), we evaluated traditional barriers to AHMA among older adults with established hypertension (N=1544; mean age=76.2 years, 59.5% women, 27.9% Black, 24.1% and 38.9% low adherence by proportion of days covered (i.e., PDC<0.80) and the 4-item Krousel-Wood Medication Adherence Scale (i.e., K-Wood-MAS-4≥1), respectively), finding that they explained 6.4% and 14.8% of variance in pharmacy refill and self-reported adherence, respectively. Persistent low adherence rates, coupled with low explanatory power of traditional barriers, suggest that other factors warrant attention. Prior research has investigated explicit attitudes toward medications as a driver of adherence; the roles of implicit attitudes and time preferences (e.g., immediate versus delayed gratification) as mechanisms underlying adherence behavior are emerging. Similarly, while associations of individual-level social determinants of health (SDOH) and medication adherence are well-reported, there is growing evidence about structural SDOH and specific pathways of effect. Building on published conceptual models and recent evidence, we propose an expanded conceptual framework that incorporates implicit attitudes, time preferences and structural SDOH, as emerging determinants that may explain additional variation in objectively and subjectively measured adherence. This model provides guidance for design, implementation and assessment of interventions targeting sustained improvement in implementation medication adherence and clinical outcomes among older women and men with hypertension.

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Urine Spot Samples Can Be Used to Estimate 24-Hour Urinary Sodium Excretion in Children

Journal of Nutrition ◽

10.1093/jn/nxy211 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 148 (12) ◽

pp. 1946-1953 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Magali Rios-Leyvraz ◽

Pascal Bovet ◽

René Tabin ◽

Bernard Genin ◽

Michel Russo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sodium Excretion ◽

Salt Intake ◽

Sodium Intake ◽

Population Level ◽

Urinary Sodium Excretion ◽

Cross Sectional Study ◽

Urinary Sodium ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

High Sodium ◽

Individual Level

ABSTRACT Background The gold standard to assess salt intake is 24-h urine collections. Use of a urine spot sample can be a simpler alternative, especially when the goal is to assess sodium intake at the population level. Several equations to estimate 24-h urinary sodium excretion from urine spot samples have been tested in adults, but not in children. Objective The objective of this study was to assess the ability of several equations and urine spot samples to estimate 24-h urinary sodium excretion in children. Methods A cross-sectional study of children between 6 and 16 y of age was conducted. Each child collected one 24-h urine sample and 3 timed urine spot samples, i.e., evening (last void before going to bed), overnight (first void in the morning), and morning (second void in the morning). Eight equations (i.e., Kawasaki, Tanaka, Remer, Mage, Brown with and without potassium, Toft, and Meng) were used to estimate 24-h urinary sodium excretion. The estimates from the different spot samples and equations were compared with the measured excretion through the use of several statistics. Results Among the 101 children recruited, 86 had a complete 24-h urine collection and were included in the analysis (mean age: 10.5 y). The mean measured 24-h urinary sodium excretion was 2.5 g (range: 0.8–6.4 g). The different spot samples and equations provided highly heterogeneous estimates of the 24-h urinary sodium excretion. The overnight spot samples with the Tanaka and Brown equations provided the most accurate estimates (mean bias: −0.20 to −0.12 g; correlation: 0.48–0.53; precision: 69.7–76.5%; sensitivity: 76.9–81.6%; specificity: 66.7%; and misclassification: 23.0–27.7%). The other equations, irrespective of the timing of the spot, provided less accurate estimates. Conclusions Urine spot samples, with selected equations, might provide accurate estimates of the 24-h sodium excretion in children at a population level. At an individual level, they could be used to identify children with high sodium excretion. This study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT02900261.

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Migration, acculturation, and the maintenance of between-group cultural variation

10.1101/234807 ◽

2017 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Alex Mesoudi

Keyword(s):

Social Learning ◽

Cultural Values ◽

Cultural Evolution ◽

Population Level ◽

Empirical Literature ◽

Cultural Variation ◽

Individual Level ◽

And Migration ◽

The Individual ◽

Social Learning Processes

AbstractHow do migration and acculturation (i.e. psychological or behavioral change resulting from migration) affect within- and between-group cultural variation? Here I answer this question by drawing analogies between genetic and cultural evolution. Population genetic models show that migration rapidly breaks down between-group genetic structure. In cultural evolution, however, migrants or their descendants can acculturate to local behaviors via social learning processes such as conformity, potentially preventing migration from eliminating between-group cultural variation. An analysis of the empirical literature on migration suggests that acculturation is common, with second and subsequent migrant generations shifting, sometimes substantially, towards the cultural values of the adopted society. Yet there is little understanding of the individual-level dynamics that underlie these population-level shifts. To explore this formally, I present models quantifying the effect of migration and acculturation on between-group cultural variation, for both neutral and costly cooperative traits. In the models, between-group cultural variation, measured using F statistics, is eliminated by migration and maintained by conformist acculturation. The extent of acculturation is determined by the strength of conformist bias and the number of demonstrators from whom individuals learn. Acculturation is countered by assortation, the tendency for individuals to preferentially interact with culturally-similar others. Unlike neutral traits, cooperative traits can additionally be maintained by payoff-biased social learning, but only in the presence of strong sanctioning institutions. Overall, the models show that surprisingly little conformist acculturation is required to maintain realistic amounts of between-group cultural diversity. While these models provide insight into the potential dynamics of acculturation and migration in cultural evolution, they also highlight the need for more empirical research into the individual-level learning biases that underlie migrant acculturation.

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Electroencephalographic Evidence for Individual Neural Inertia in Mice That Decreases With Time

Frontiers in Systems Neuroscience ◽

10.3389/fnsys.2021.787612 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 15 ◽

Author(s):

Andrzej Z. Wasilczuk ◽

Qing Cheng Meng ◽

Andrew R. McKinstry-Wu

Keyword(s):

Stochastic Model ◽

Path Dependence ◽

Inbred Mice ◽

Population Level ◽

Supervised Machine Learning ◽

State Transitions ◽

Intrinsic Resistance ◽

Linear Discriminant ◽

Individual Level ◽

Increased Risk

Previous studies have demonstrated that the brain has an intrinsic resistance to changes in arousal state. This resistance is most easily measured at the population level in the setting of general anesthesia and has been termed neural inertia. To date, no study has attempted to determine neural inertia in individuals. We hypothesize that individuals with markedly increased or decreased neural inertia might be at increased risk for complications related to state transitions, from awareness under anesthesia, to delayed emergence or confusion/impairment after emergence. Hence, an improved theoretical and practical understanding of neural inertia may have the potential to identify individuals at increased risk for these complications. This study was designed to explicitly measure neural inertia in individuals and empirically test the stochastic model of neural inertia using spectral analysis of the murine EEG. EEG was measured after induction of and emergence from isoflurane administered near the EC50 dose for loss of righting in genetically inbred mice on a timescale that minimizes pharmacokinetic confounds. Neural inertia was assessed by employing classifiers constructed using linear discriminant or supervised machine learning methods to determine if features of EEG spectra reliably demonstrate path dependence at steady-state anesthesia. We also report the existence of neural inertia at the individual level, as well as the population level, and that neural inertia decreases over time, providing direct empirical evidence supporting the predictions of the stochastic model of neural inertia.

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Modelling the HIV-Associated TB Epidemic and the Impact of Interventions Aimed at Epidemic Control

HIV and Tuberculosis ◽

10.1007/978-3-030-29108-2_3 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 25-55

Author(s):

P. J. Dodd ◽

C. Pretorius ◽

B. G. Williams

Keyword(s):

Natural History ◽

Mathematical Models ◽

Population Level ◽

Explicit Representation ◽

Epidemic Control ◽

Future Directions ◽

Individual Level ◽

Tuberculosis Epidemiology ◽

History Of ◽

The Impact

Abstract In this chapter, we focus on mathematical models of tuberculosis epidemiology (TB) that include interactions with HIV and an explicit representation of transmission. We review the natural history of TB and illustrate how its features are simplified and incorporated in mathematical models. We then review the ways HIV influences the natural history of TB, the interventions that have been considered in models, and the way these individual-level effects are represented in models. We then go on to consider population-level effects, reviewing the TB/HIV modelling literature. We first review studies whose focus was on purely epidemiological modelling, and then studies whose focus was on modelling the impact of interventions. We conclude with a summary of the uses and achievements of TB/HIV modelling and some suggested future directions.

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General intelligence disentangled via a generality metric for natural and artificial intelligence

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-01997-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

José Hernández-Orallo ◽

Bao Sheng Loe ◽

Lucy Cheke ◽

Fernando Martínez-Plumed ◽

Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh

Keyword(s):

Task Difficulty ◽

Population Level ◽

Limited Resources ◽

General Intelligence ◽

Individual Level ◽

Cognitive Efficiency ◽

Comprehensive Performance ◽

Individual Measure ◽

Level Of Difficulty ◽

The Individual

AbstractSuccess in all sorts of situations is the most classical interpretation of general intelligence. Under limited resources, however, the capability of an agent must necessarily be limited too, and generality needs to be understood as comprehensive performance up to a level of difficulty. The degree of generality then refers to the way an agent’s capability is distributed as a function of task difficulty. This dissects the notion of general intelligence into two non-populational measures, generality and capability, which we apply to individuals and groups of humans, other animals and AI systems, on several cognitive and perceptual tests. Our results indicate that generality and capability can decouple at the individual level: very specialised agents can show high capability and vice versa. The metrics also decouple at the population level, and we rarely see diminishing returns in generality for those groups of high capability. We relate the individual measure of generality to traditional notions of general intelligence and cognitive efficiency in humans, collectives, non-human animals and machines. The choice of the difficulty function now plays a prominent role in this new conception of generality, which brings a quantitative tool for shedding light on long-standing questions about the evolution of general intelligence and the evaluation of progress in Artificial General Intelligence.

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