scholarly journals Impact of measurement errors on the inferred stellar asteroseismic ages

2018 ◽  
Vol 620 ◽  
pp. A168 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Valle ◽  
M. Dell’Omodarme ◽  
P. G. Prada Moroni ◽  
S. Degl’Innocenti

Aims. We aim to perform a theoretical investigation on the direct impact of measurement errors in the observational constraints on the recovered age for stars in main sequence (MS) and red giant branch (RGB) phases. We assumed that a mix of classical (effective temperature Teff and metallicity [Fe/H]) and asteroseismic (Δν and νmax) constraints were available for the objects. Methods. Artificial stars were sampled from a reference isochrone and subjected to random Gaussian perturbation in their observational constraints to simulate observational errors. The ages of these synthetic objects were then recovered by means of a Monte Carlo Markov chains approach over a grid of pre-computed stellar models. To account for observational uncertainties the grid covers different values of initial helium abundance and mixing-length parameter, that act as nuisance parameters in the age estimation. Results. The obtained differences between the recovered and true ages were modelled against the errors in the observables. This procedure was performed by means of linear models and projection pursuit regression models. The first class of statistical models provides an easily generalizable result, whose robustness is checked with the second method. From linear models we find that no age error source dominates in all the evolutionary phases. Assuming typical observational uncertainties, for MS the most important error source in the reconstructed age is the effective temperature of the star. An offset of 75 K accounts for an underestimation of the stellar age from 0.4 to 0.6 Gyr for initial and terminal MS. An error of 2.5% in νmax resulted the second most important source of uncertainty accounting for about −0.3 Gyr. The 0.1 dex error in [Fe/H] resulted particularly important only at the end of the MS, producing an age error of −0.4 Gyr. For the RGB phase the dominant source of uncertainty is νmax, causing an underestimation of about 0.6 Gyr; the offset in the effective temperature and Δν caused respectively an underestimation and overestimation of 0.3 Gyr. We find that the inference from the linear model is a good proxy for that from projection pursuit regression models. Therefore, inference from linear models can be safely used thanks to its broader generalizability. Finally, we explored the impact on age estimates of adding the luminosity to the previously discussed observational constraints. To this purpose, we assumed – for computational reasons – a 2.5% error in luminosity, much lower than the average error in the Gaia DR2 catalogue. However, even in this optimistic case, the addition of the luminosity does not increase precision of age estimates. Moreover, the luminosity resulted as a major contributor to the variability in the estimated ages, accounting for an error of about −0.3 Gyr in the explored evolutionary phases.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Pina-Sánchez ◽  
David Buil-Gil ◽  
ian brunton-smith ◽  
Alexandru Cernat

Objectives: Assess the extent to which measurement error in police recorded crime rates impact the estimates of regression models exploring the causes and consequences of crime.Methods: We focus on linear models where crime rates are included either as the response or as an explanatory variable, in their original scale, or log-transformed. Two measurement error mechanisms are considered, systematic errors in the form of under-recorded crime, and random errors in the form of recording inconsistencies across areas. The extent to which such measurement error mechanisms impact model parameters is demonstrated algebraically, using formal notation, and graphically, using simulations.Results: Most coefficients and measures of uncertainty from models where crime rates are included in their original scale are severely biased. However, in many cases, this problem could be minimised, or altogether eliminated by log-transforming crime rates. This transforms the multiplicative measurement error observed in police recorded crime rates into a less harmful additive mechanism.Conclusions: The validity of findings from regression models where police recorded crime rates are used in their original scale is put into question. In interpreting the large evidence base exploring the effects and consequences of crime using police statistics we urge researchers to consider the biasing effects shown here. Equally, we urge researchers to log-transform crime rates before they are introduced in statistical models.


2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-71
Author(s):  
Wigiyanti Masodah

Offering credit is the main activity of a Bank. There are some considerations when a bank offers credit, that includes Interest Rates, Inflation, and NPL. This study aims to find out the impact of Variable Interest Rates, Inflation variables and NPL variables on credit disbursed. The object in this study is state-owned banks. The method of analysis in this study uses multiple linear regression models. The results of the study have shown that Interest Rates and NPL gave some negative impacts on the given credit. Meanwhile, Inflation variable does not have a significant effect on credit given. Keywords: Interest Rate, Inflation, NPL, offered Credit.


Objective: While the use of intraoperative laser angiography (SPY) is increasing in mastectomy patients, its impact in the operating room to change the type of reconstruction performed has not been well described. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether SPY angiography influences post-mastectomy reconstruction decisions and outcomes. Methods and materials: A retrospective analysis of mastectomy patients with reconstruction at a single institution was performed from 2015-2017.All patients underwent intraoperative SPY after mastectomy but prior to reconstruction. SPY results were defined as ‘good’, ‘questionable’, ‘bad’, or ‘had skin excised’. Complications within 60 days of surgery were compared between those whose SPY results did not change the type of reconstruction done versus those who did. Preoperative and intraoperative variables were entered into multivariable logistic regression models if significant at the univariate level. A p-value <0.05 was considered significant. Results: 267 mastectomies were identified, 42 underwent a change in the type of planned reconstruction due to intraoperative SPY results. Of the 42 breasts that underwent a change in reconstruction, 6 had a ‘good’ SPY result, 10 ‘questionable’, 25 ‘bad’, and 2 ‘had areas excised’ (p<0.01). After multivariable analysis, predictors of skin necrosis included patients with ‘questionable’ SPY results (p<0.01, OR: 8.1, 95%CI: 2.06 – 32.2) and smokers (p<0.01, OR:5.7, 95%CI: 1.5 – 21.2). Predictors of any complication included a change in reconstruction (p<0.05, OR:4.5, 95%CI: 1.4-14.9) and ‘questionable’ SPY result (p<0.01, OR: 4.4, 95%CI: 1.6-14.9). Conclusion: SPY angiography results strongly influence intraoperative surgical decisions regarding the type of reconstruction performed. Patients most at risk for flap necrosis and complication post-mastectomy are those with questionable SPY results.


Foods ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 490
Author(s):  
Alioune Diop ◽  
Jean–Michel Méot ◽  
Mathieu Léchaudel ◽  
Frédéric Chiroleu ◽  
Nafissatou Diop Ndiaye ◽  
...  

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of the harvest stage, ripening conditions and maturity on color changes of cv. ‘Cogshall’ and cv. ‘Kent’ variety mangoes during drying. A total of four harvests were undertaken, and the fruits were ripened at 20 and 35 °C for five different ripening times at each temperature. At each ripening time, mangoes were dried at 60 °C/30% RH/1.5 m/s for 5 h. A wide physico-chemical and color variability of fresh and dry pulp was created. The relationships according to the L*, H* and C* coordinates were established using mixed covariance regression models in relation to the above pre- and postharvest (preprocess) parameters. According to the L* coordinate results, browning during drying was not affected by the preprocess parameters. However, dried slices from mangoes ripened at 35 °C exhibited better retention of the initial chroma, and had a greater decrease in hue than dried slices from mangoes ripened at 20 °C. However, fresh mango color, successfully managed by the pre- and postharvest conditions, had more impact on dried mango color than the studied parameters. The preprocess parameters were effective levers for improving fresh mango color, and consequently dried mango color.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Müller ◽  
Manuela Bombana ◽  
Monika Heinzel-Gutenbrenner ◽  
Nikolaus Kleindienst ◽  
Martin Bohus ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Mental disorders are related to high individual suffering and significant socio-economic burdens. However, it remains unclear to what extent self-reported mental distress is related to individuals’ days of incapacity to work and their medical costs. This study aims to investigate the impact of self-reported mental distress for specific and non-specific days of incapacity to work and specific and non-specific medical costs over a two-year span. Method Within a longitudinal research design, 2287 study participants’ mental distress was assessed using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). HADS scores were included as predictors in generalized linear models with a Tweedie distribution with log link function to predict participants’ days of incapacity to work and medical costs retrieved from their health insurance routine data during the following two-year period. Results Current mental distress was found to be significantly related to the number of specific days absent from work and medical costs. Compared to participants classified as no cases by the HADS (2.6 days), severe case participants showed 27.3-times as many specific days of incapacity to work in the first year (72 days) and 10.3-times as many days in the second year (44 days), and resulted in 11.4-times more medical costs in the first year (2272 EUR) and 6.2-times more in the second year (1319 EUR). The relationship of mental distress to non-specific days of incapacity to work and non-specific medical costs was also significant, but mainly driven from specific absent days and specific medical costs. Our results also indicate that the prevalence of presenteeism is considerably high: 42% of individuals continued to go to work despite severe mental distress. Conclusions Our results show that self-reported mental distress, assessed by the HADS, is highly related to the days of incapacity to work and medical costs in the two-year period. Reducing mental distress by improving preventive structures for at-risk populations and increasing access to evidence-based treatments for individuals with mental disorders might, therefore, pay for itself and could help to reduce public costs.


Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (10) ◽  
pp. 3415
Author(s):  
Hursuong Vongsachang ◽  
Aleksandra Mihailovic ◽  
Jian-Yu E ◽  
David S. Friedman ◽  
Sheila K. West ◽  
...  

Understanding periods of the year associated with higher risk for falling and less physical activity may guide fall prevention and activity promotion for older adults. We examined the relationship between weather and seasons on falls and physical activity in a three-year cohort of older adults with glaucoma. Participants recorded falls information via monthly calendars and participated in four one-week accelerometer trials (baseline and per study year). Across 240 participants, there were 406 falls recorded over 7569 person-months, of which 163 were injurious (40%). In separate multivariable regression models incorporating generalized estimating equations, temperature, precipitation, and seasons were not significantly associated with the odds of falling, average daily steps, or average daily active minutes. However, every 10 °C increase in average daily temperature was associated with 24% higher odds of a fall being injurious, as opposed to non-injurious (p = 0.04). The odds of an injurious fall occurring outdoors, as opposed to indoors, were greater with higher average temperatures (OR per 10 °C = 1.46, p = 0.03) and with the summer season (OR = 2.69 vs. winter, p = 0.03). Falls and physical activity should be understood as year-round issues for older adults, although the likelihood of injury and the location of fall-related injuries may change with warmer season and temperatures.


Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 299
Author(s):  
Jaime Pinilla ◽  
Miguel Negrín

The interrupted time series analysis is a quasi-experimental design used to evaluate the effectiveness of an intervention. Segmented linear regression models have been the most used models to carry out this analysis. However, they assume a linear trend that may not be appropriate in many situations. In this paper, we show how generalized additive models (GAMs), a non-parametric regression-based method, can be useful to accommodate nonlinear trends. An analysis with simulated data is carried out to assess the performance of both models. Data were simulated from linear and non-linear (quadratic and cubic) functions. The results of this analysis show how GAMs improve on segmented linear regression models when the trend is non-linear, but they also show a good performance when the trend is linear. A real-life application where the impact of the 2012 Spanish cost-sharing reforms on pharmaceutical prescription is also analyzed. Seasonality and an indicator variable for the stockpiling effect are included as explanatory variables. The segmented linear regression model shows good fit of the data. However, the GAM concludes that the hypothesis of linear trend is rejected. The estimated level shift is similar for both models but the cumulative absolute effect on the number of prescriptions is lower in GAM.


Buildings ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 96
Author(s):  
Paul Mathew ◽  
Lino Sanchez ◽  
Sang Hoon Lee ◽  
Travis Walter

Increasing concern over higher frequency extreme weather events is driving a push towards a more resilient built environment. In recent years there has been growing interest in understanding how to evaluate, measure, and improve building energy resilience, i.e., the ability of a building to provide energy-related services in the event of a local or regional power outage. In addition to human health and safety, many stakeholders are keenly interested in the ability of a building to allow continuity of operations and minimize business disruption. Office buildings are subject to significant economic losses when building operations are disrupted due to a power outage. We propose “occupant hours lost” (OHL) as a means to measure the business productivity lost as the result of a power outage in office buildings. OHL is determined based on indoor conditions in each space for each hour during a power outage, and then aggregated spatially and temporally to determine the whole building OHL. We used quasi-Monte Carlo parametric energy simulations to demonstrate how the OHL metric varies due to different building characteristics across different climate zones and seasons. The simulation dataset was then used to develop simple regression models for assessing the impact of ten key building characteristics on OHL. The most impactful were window-to-wall ratio and window characteristics. The regression models show promise as a simple means to assess and screen for resilience using basic building characteristics, especially for non-critical facilities where it may not be viable to conduct detailed engineering analysis.


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