scholarly journals Growth rates of modern science: a latent piecewise growth curve approach to model publication numbers from established and new literature databases

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lutz Bornmann ◽  
Robin Haunschild ◽  
Rüdiger Mutz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Modern Science ◽  
Growth Processes ◽  
Science System ◽  
Publication Data ◽  
Growth Of Science ◽  
Scientific Growth

AbstractGrowth of science is a prevalent issue in science of science studies. In recent years, two new bibliographic databases have been introduced, which can be used to study growth processes in science from centuries back: Dimensions from Digital Science and Microsoft Academic. In this study, we used publication data from these new databases and added publication data from two established databases (Web of Science from Clarivate Analytics and Scopus from Elsevier) to investigate scientific growth processes from the beginning of the modern science system until today. We estimated regression models that included simultaneously the publication counts from the four databases. The results of the unrestricted growth of science calculations show that the overall growth rate amounts to 4.10% with a doubling time of 17.3 years. As the comparison of various segmented regression models in the current study revealed, models with four or five segments fit the publication data best. We demonstrated that these segments with different growth rates can be interpreted very well, since they are related to either phases of economic (e.g., industrialization) and/or political developments (e.g., Second World War). In this study, we additionally analyzed scientific growth in two broad fields (Physical and Technical Sciences as well as Life Sciences) and the relationship of scientific and economic growth in UK. The comparison between the two fields revealed only slight differences. The comparison of the British economic and scientific growth rates showed that the economic growth rate is slightly lower than the scientific growth rate.

THE CAUSE OF HIGHER ECONOMIC GROWTH: ASSESSING THE LONG-TERM AND SHORT-TERM RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE

2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 229-250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Motasam Tatahi ◽  
Emre Ipekci Cetin ◽  
M. Koray Cetin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Dynamic Relationship

This study examines the cause of higher (5% or more) economic growth rates in countries around the world over the past 35 years. It explores the long- and short-term relationships between GDP and government expenditures in these countries. A panel data set of 60 countries over the period from 1976 to 2010 is deployed to implement pooled mean group estimation. Countries are divided into three economic growth rate groups: high, middle, and low. Panel-based/error correction models are used to estimate long-term equilibrium relationships and short-term dynamics between government expenditures and GDP growth rates. Results indicate that the hypothesis of a common long-term elasticity and a short-term dynamic relationship between GDP growth rates and government expenditures cannot be rejected for high group countries, whereas for middle group countries this is true only for the long term, not for the short term. No long-term or short-term relationship between these two variables exists for low-growth-rate countries.

Turning points in the economic development of South-American countries

10.12737/1471 ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 11-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
South American ◽  
Theory Approach ◽  
The World ◽  
Trading Partners

Growth rates of the South-American economies are assessed against the world economy growth rate. Turning points in economic development are identified based on the catastrophe theory approach, namely, by evaluating variances in the rates of economic growth. Turning points of economic growth are identified for the world economy and also for Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia and Chile. The said countries have grown faster than the world economy: Chile, Colombia and Venezuela have demonstrated the 4,5–5,5% growth rate, and Brazil – 3%. In terms of growth sustainability the said four countries could be ranged as follows (in descending order): Colombia, Brazil, Chile, Venezuela. All the four could be prospective business and trading partners. In terms of economic growth rates and sustainability or growth the most promising partners are Colombia and Brazil, followed by Chile and Venezuela as slightly less promising partners

Cooling Raw Milk: Change in the Spoilage Potential of Contaminating Pseudomonas

1995 ◽  
Vol 58 (8) ◽  
pp. 915-921 ◽  
Author(s):  
ALMUDENA JASPE ◽  
PILAR OVIEDO ◽  
LEONIDES FERNANDEZ ◽  
PETRA PALACIOS ◽  
CARMEN SANJOSE
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Proteolytic Activity ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Lipolytic Activity ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Raw Milk ◽  
Extracellular Proteinase ◽  
Pseudomonas Spp

A group of 80 Pseudomonas spp. strains isolated from raw milk shortly after milking was compared to another group of 81 obtained from the same sample after incubating it at 7°C for 3 days. Comparison of both collections of strains included growth rates at 7°C and 21°C and production of extracellular proteinase, lipase, and siderophores. The strains selected after cold incubation showed an average to-fold higher growth rate at 7°C, 1,000-fold more proteolytic activity, and 280-fold more lipolytic activity than those found before the incubation. At 21°C, however, they grew half as quickly as the strains isolated before the incubation. In all but one of the 161 Pseudomonas strains tested, there was some production of siderophores, and yields were only moderately increased in the strains obtained after incubation of the milk at 7°C. These changes in spoilage-related properties took place while global Pseudomonas counts increased only 13-fold. Distribution frequencies of the variables tested, their correlation coefficients, and regression models are shown.

scholarly journals Development of a Methodological Approach to Medium-Term Forecasting of the Regional Economic Growth Based on the Decomposition of Macro-Forecast Indicators for Russia

2020 ◽  
pp. 63-74
Author(s):  
Andrey Polynev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Regional Economic Growth ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Federal Districts ◽  
The Russian Federation

The article presents a methodological approach to the development of a medium-term forecast of GRP growth rates in regions (subjects of the Russian Federation and Federal districts) in the context of the main types of economic activity based on the decomposition of macroeconomic forecast indicators for Russia. The key factors that have a significant impact on the dynamics of the current regional economic growth, including macroeconomic, territorial and external ones, should be taken into account in forecasts of regional development. The author mentions examples of domestic practices of scientific research in the field of forecasting in the regions of Russia according to the main macroeconomic indicators, including GRP. The paper states the methodological basis and fundamental principles of forecasting of regional indicators of the economic growth according to the main types of economic activity. As a key factor an indicator determining the dynamics of production in the sectors of regional economy, the growth rate of investments into fixed capital is used which is determined by the presence of a functional relationship between these characteristics on the basis of the multiplier ratio. On the basis of the developed methodological approach, the author estimates the growth rate of GRP of Russian regions according to the main types of economic activity for the period until 2024. The paper presents the results of the GRP forecast for Federal districts, as well as the share of GRP investments in them. The article shows the regions of the Russian Federation with the highest GRP growth rates in the medium term and trends of changes in the levels of interregional differentiation in investment and economic activity in Russia from 2000 to 2017 and for the forecasted period until 2024.

scholarly journals A Longitudinal Assessment of Tax Reforms and National Income in Nigeria: 1971-2014

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 43
Author(s):  
Innocent Augustine Nwaorgu ◽  
Wilson E. Herbert ◽  
Francis Onyilo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
National Income ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Personal Income Tax ◽  
Value Added Tax ◽  
Tax Reforms

<p>This study assesses the impact of tax reforms on Nigeria’s national income over the period, 1971 to 2014. Using a variety of growth indicators signifying tax reforms, our regression model specified growth rate of national income (proxied by GDP) as a function of growth rates in these indicators. Diagnostic tests (F-statistics, Adjusted R-Square and Durbin-Watson) were carried out to ascertain the robustness of the parameter estimates. We found that tax reforms significantly improved national income and economic growth during the period of study, especially growth rates of value added tax and personal income tax. Our results show that growth rate of personal income tax has a positive significant effect on the national income and economic growth, while that of value added tax has a negative significant effect on growth of national income. The growth components of company income tax and petroleum profit tax are positive but not statistically significant. On the other hand, reforms in custom and excise duties were found to yield negative and statistically non-significant effect. The leading conclusions from these findings are: (1) strategic tax reforms significantly influence the behaviour of national income and GDP; (2) tax policy significantly fosters the growth of national income; and (3) policy makers, especially Ministry of Finance and Federal Inland Revenue Service and their state counterparts, should give requisite attention to tax policy issues, in the light of their obvious implications on growth of the national income and economic development.</p>

scholarly journals Modelling of the еconomic growth factors: The case of the Ural regions and the Russian Federation

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 112-131
Author(s):  
Daria S. Benz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Growth Factors ◽  
Technological Innovation ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Outcome Variable ◽  
Fixed Assets ◽  
Per Capita

Current pandemic-induced downturn has made the problem of economic growth even more acute for the Ural regions of Russia. The national economy is stagnating and trans mits the same processes to the regional economies. The paper aims to identify the economic growth factors for eight Ural regions and for the national economy as a whole. The author mod els the functions of economic growth for regions that are part of both the Ural Federal District and the Ural macroregion, thereby consciously expanding the study for comparative analysis. Methodologically, the paper relies on the theory of economic growth and theory of produc tion (works of C. W. Cobb, P. H. Douglas, R. M. Solow). The author uses econometric tools and builds regressions for eight regions and the national economy, where the outcome variable is the growth rate of gross regional product. The independent variables include the growth rates of the following indicators: industrial production, employment, investments in fixed assets, cost of fixed assets, average per capita incomes, costs of technological innovations. The source of statistical information is Rosstat data covering the period 1995–2018. Based on the constructed functions, the researcher draws a number of conclusions. For the majority of the Ural regions, as well as for the Russian economy, the deciding and the most elastic factor is the growth rate of industrial production. Results among regions vary, but in total, the growth rate of average per capita incomes is the second most important factor. The increase in employment affects greatly the economic growth, especially in those regions that have seen a drastic decline in the labour force over the past decades. The costs of technological innovation do not demonstrate high elasticity. The author suggests that the reason is that their amount is extremely small. Even high growth rates of costs of technological innovation do not produce a visible result, since their level remains catastrophically low. The results of the study can be used in the regional and national socioeconomic development strategies, as well as serve a basis for further economic studies.

Forming Sources of Long-run Growth: How to Understand Them?

2014 ◽  
pp. 4-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Idrisov ◽  
S. Sinelnikov-Murylev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Accelerate Growth ◽  
Budget Institutions

The paper analyzes the inconsequence and problems of Russian economic policy to accelerate economic growth. The authors consider three components of growth rate (potential, Russian business cycle and world business cycle components) and conclude that in order to pursue an effective economic policy to accelerate growth, it has to be addressed to the potential (long-run) growth component. The main ingredients of this policy are government spending restructuring and budget institutions reform, labor and capital markets reforms, productivity growth.

Economic Growth and Macro Variables in India: An Empirical Study

2015 ◽  
pp. 42-59
Author(s):  
Saba Ismail ◽  
Shahid Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Domestic Capital ◽  
The Government ◽  
Macro Variables ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth

The research objective of this paper is to explore the empirical linkages between economic growth and foreign direct investment (FDI), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and trade openness in India (TOP) over the period 1980 to 2013. The study reveals a positive relationship between economic growth and FDI, GFCF and TOP. This study establishes a strong unidirectional causal flow from changes in FDI, trade openness and capital formation to the economic growth rates of India. The impulse response function traces the positive influence of these macro variables on the GDP growth rates of India. The study also reveals that the volatility of GDP growth rates in India is mainly attributed to the variation in the level of GFCF and FDI. The study concludes that the FDI inflows and the size of capital formation are the main determinants of economic growth. In view of this, it is expected that the government of India should provide more policy focus on promoting FDI inflows and domestic capital formations to increase its economic growth in the long-term.

Analyzing the current effectiveness of the Russian economy's design

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 1476-1496
Author(s):  
V.V. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Mineral Resources ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Moscow Oblast ◽  
Structural Balance ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Stability

Subject. The article discusses Russia’s economy and analyzes its effectiveness. Objectives. The study attempts to determine to what extent Russia’s economy is effective. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and the statistical analysis. Results. I discovered significant fluctuations of the structural balance due to changing growth rates of the total gross national debt denominated in the national currency, and the stability of growth rates of governmental revenue. Changes in the RUB exchange rate and an additional growth in GDP are the main stabilizers of the structural balance, as they depend on hydrocarbon export. As a result of the analysis of cash flows, I found that the exports slowed down. Financial resources are strongly centralized, since Moscow and the Moscow Oblast are incrementing their share in the export of mineral resources, oil and refining products and import of electrical machines and equipment. Conclusions and Relevance. The fact that the Russian economy has been effectively organized is proved with the centralization of the economic power and the limits through the cross-regional corporation, such as Moscow and the Moscow Oblast, which is resilient to any regional difficulties ensuring the economic growth and sustainable development. The findings would be valuable for the political and economic community to outline and substantiate actions to keep rates of the economic growth and sustainable development of the Russian economy.

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