Potential effects of climate change on future snow avalanche activity in western Norway deduced from meteorological data

2018 ◽  
Vol 100 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katja Laute ◽  
Achim A. Beylich
2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Nyadzi

<p>The study examines how farmers’ observations of climate variability and change correspond with 42 years (1970-2011) meteorological data of temperature and rainfall. It shows how farmers in the Northern Region of Ghana adjust to the changing climate and explore the various obstacles that hinder the implementation of their adaptation strategies. With the help of an extension officer, 200 farmers from 20 communities were randomly selected based on their farming records. Temperatures over the last four decades (1970-2009) increased at a rate of 0.04 (± 0.41) ˚C and 0.3(± 0.13)˚C from 2010-2011 which is consistent to the farmers (82.5%) observations. Rainfall within the districts are characterised by inter-annual and monthly variability. It experienced an increased rate of 0.66 (± 8.30) mm from 1970-2009, which was inconsistent with the farmers (81.5%) observation. It however decreased from 2010-2011 at a huge rate of -22.49 (±15.90) mm which probably was the reason majority of the respondents claim rainfall was decreasing. Only 64.5% of the respondents had adjusted their farming activities because of climate variability and change. They apply fertilizers and pesticides, practice soil and water conservation, and irrigation for communities close to dams. Respondents desire to continue their current adaptation methods but may in the future consider changing crop variety, water-harvesting techniques, change crop production to livestock keeping, and possibly migrate to urban centers. Lack of climate change education, low access to credit and agricultural inputs are some militating factors crippling the farmers’ effort to adapt to climate change.</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabian Lehner ◽  
Imran Nadeem ◽  
Herbert Formayer

Abstract. Daily meteorological data such as temperature or precipitation from climate models is needed for many climate impact studies, e.g. in hydrology or agriculture but direct model output can contain large systematic errors. Thus, statistical bias adjustment is applied to correct climate model outputs. Here we review existing statistical bias adjustment methods and their shortcomings, and present a method which we call EQA (Empirical Quantile Adjustment), a development of the methods EDCDFm and PresRAT. We then test it in comparison to two existing methods using real and artificially created daily temperature and precipitation data for Austria. We compare the performance of the three methods in terms of the following demands: (1): The model data should match the climatological means of the observational data in the historical period. (2): The long-term climatological trends of means (climate change signal), either defined as difference or as ratio, should not be altered during bias adjustment, and (3): Even models with too few wet days (precipitation above 0.1 mm) should be corrected accurately, so that the wet day frequency is conserved. EQA fulfills (1) almost exactly and (2) at least for temperature. For precipitation, an additional correction included in EQA assures that the climate change signal is conserved, and for (3), we apply another additional algorithm to add precipitation days.


2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. e56026
Author(s):  
Gabriela Leite Neves ◽  
Jorim Sousa das Virgens Filho ◽  
Maysa de Lima Leite ◽  
Frederico Fabio Mauad

Water is an essential natural resource that is being impacted by climate change. Thus, knowledge of future water availability conditions around the globe becomes necessary. Based on that, this study aimed to simulate future climate scenarios and evaluate the impact on water balance in southern Brazil. Daily data of rainfall and air temperature (maximum and minimum) were used. The meteorological data were collected in 28 locations over 30 years (1980-2009). For the data simulation, we used the climate data stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R. It was considered two scenarios of the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a scenario with the historical data trend. The water balance estimates were performed for the current data and the simulated data, through the methodology of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). The moisture indexes were spatialized by the kriging method. These indexes were chosen as the parameters to represent the water conditions in different situations. The region assessed presented a high variability in water availability among locations; however, it did not present high water deficiency values, even with climate change. Overall, it was observed a reduction of moisture index in most sites and in all scenarios assessed, especially in the northern region when compared to the other regions. The second scenario of the IPCC (the worst situation) promoting higher reductions and dry conditions for the 2099 year. The impacts of climate change on water availability, identified in this study, can affect the general society, therefore, they must be considered in the planning and management of water resources, especially in the regional context


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 3845
Author(s):  
Guangbo Ren ◽  
Jianbu Wang ◽  
Yunfei Lu ◽  
Peiqiang Wu ◽  
Xiaoqing Lu ◽  
...  

Climate change has profoundly affected global ecological security. The most vulnerable region on Earth is the high-latitude Arctic. Identifying the changes in vegetation coverage and glaciers in high-latitude Arctic coastal regions is important for understanding the process and impact of global climate change. Ny-Ålesund, the northern-most human settlement, is typical of these coastal regions and was used as a study site. Vegetation and glacier changes over the past 35 years were studied using time series remote sensing data from Landsat 5/7/8 acquired in 1985, 1989, 2000, 2011, 2015 and 2019. Site survey data in 2019, a digital elevation model from 2009 and meteorological data observed from 1985 to 2019 were also used. The vegetation in the Ny-Ålesund coastal zone showed a trend of declining and then increasing, with a breaking point in 2000. However, the area of vegetation with coverage greater than 30% increased over the whole study period, and the wetland moss area also increased, which may be caused by the accelerated melting of glaciers. Human activities were responsible for the decline in vegetation cover around Ny-Ålesund owing to the construction of the town and airport. Even in areas with vegetation coverage of only 13%, there were at least five species of high-latitude plants. The melting rate of five major glaciers in the study area accelerated, and approximately 82% of the reduction in glacier area occurred after 2000. The elevation of the lowest boundary of the five glaciers increased by 50–70 m. The increase in precipitation and the average annual temperature after 2000 explains the changes in both vegetation coverage and glaciers in the study period.


2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Li ◽  
Jianhua Xu ◽  
Zhongsheng Chen ◽  
Benfu Zhao

Based on the hydrological and meteorological data of the upper reaches of Shiyang River basin in Northwest China from 1960 to 2009, this paper analyzed the change in runoff and its related climatic factors, and estimated the contribution of climate change and human activity to runoff change by using the moving T test, cumulative analysis of anomalies and multiple regression analysis. The results showed that temperature revealed a significant increasing trend, and potential evaporation capacity decreased significantly, while precipitation increased insignificantly in the past recent 50 years. Although there were three mutations in 1975, 1990 and 2002 respectively, runoff presented a slight decreasing trend in the whole period. The contributions of climate change and human activity to runoff change during the period of 1976-2009 were 45% and 55% respectively.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-22
Author(s):  
Muhammad Taqui ◽  
Jabir Hussain Syed ◽  
Ghulam Hassan Askari

Pakistan’s largest city, Karachi, which is industrial centre and economic hub needs focus in research and development of every field of Engineering, Science and Technology. Urbanization and industrialization is resulting bad weather conditions which prolongs until a climate change. Since, Meteorology serves as interdisciplinary field of study, an analytical study of real and region-specific meteorological data is conducted which focuses on routine, extreme and engineering meteorology of metropolitan city Karachi. Results of study endorse the meteorological parameters relationship and establish the variability of those parameters for Karachi Coastal Area. The rise of temperature, decreasing trend of atmospheric pressure, increment in precipitation and fall in relative humidity depict the effects of urbanization and industrialization. The recorded extreme maximum temperature of 45.50C (on June 11, 1988) and the extreme minimum temperature of 4.5 0C(on January 1, 2007) is observed at Karachi south meteorological station. The estimated temperature rise in 32 years is 0.9 0C, which is crossing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted/estimated limit of 2oC rise per century. The maximum annual precipitation of 487.0mm appearing in 1994 and the minimum annual precipitation of 2.5mm appearing in 1987 is observed at same station which is representative meteorological station for Karachi Coast. Further Engineering meteorological parameters for heating ventilation air condition (HVAC) system design for industrial purpose are deduced as supporting data for coastal area site study for industrial as well as any follow-up engineering work in the specified region.


2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 184-203
Author(s):  
Arshad Ashraf ◽  
Ghani Akbar

Cryosphere-fed kuhl irrigation system forms a major lifeline for agriculture and livelihood development in the Himalayan region. The system is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts like glacier retreat, glacial lake outburst floods, snow avalanches and landslides especially in the upper Indus Basin (UIB). It is necessary to conduct reassessment of climate change impacts and find coping strategies for sustainable agriculture development in this mountainous region. In the present study, risks of glacier depletion , lakes outburst flood, snow avalanche and landslide hazards impacting cryosphere-fed kuhl irrigation system in 10 river basins of the UIB of Pakistan were analyzed using multi-hazard indexing approach. High risk of glacier depletion was observed in the Astore and Swat river basins likely because of the combined effect of reduced snow precipitation and rising warm temperatures in these basins. The risk of expansion in aggregate lake area was high in the Indus sub-basin, moderate in the five basins (i.e., Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, Shingo and Astore), while it was low in the four basins (i.e., Swat, Chitral, Gilgit and Jhelum). More than 2% areas of Hunza and Shigar basins in the Karakoram range exhibited high risk of snow avalanche and landslide (SAL) hazard, while moderate SAL hazard was found in >40% areas of Chitral, Gilgit, Hunza and Shigar river basins. An effective early warning mechanism and provision of adequate resources for preparedness are essential to cope with negative impacts of climate change on irrigated agriculture in this region in future.


Geomorphology ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 218 ◽  
pp. 3-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Armelle Decaulne ◽  
Ólafur Eggertsson ◽  
Katja Laute ◽  
Achim A. Beylich

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jana Sillmann ◽  
Melanie Burford ◽  
Miriam Stackpole Dahl

&lt;p&gt;Extreme floods with severe impacts have hit municipalities in Western Norway in recent decades and they will become more intense and frequent with global warming. We present a project that focused on providing an approach for visualizing climate change information for decision-makers challenged with planning resilient infrastructure and preparedness measures for future flood impacts. We have chosen visual storytelling through a short film as the most suitable and effective tool for building a communication strategy to reach out to local and regional decision-makers on the one hand and the research community on the other.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The objective was to present and communicate results from a research project in a film by focusing on low-probability high-impact events using a storyline approach. The scope of the research project was to provide Norwegian stakeholders with a realistic representation of how an observed high-impact event of the past will look like under projected future climate conditions (Schaller et al. 2020, Hegdahl et al. 2020). Recent high-impact flood events in Norway have emphasized the need for more proactive climate change adaptation. This requires local, actionable and reliable climate information to support the decision making as well as awareness and consideration of barriers to adaptation. Thus, a seamless chain from global climate system modelling over high-resolution hydrological modelling to impact assessments is needed. We have therefore taken a novel &quot;Tales of future weather&quot; approach (Hazeleger et al. 2015), which suggests that scenarios tailored to a specific region and stakeholder context in combination with numerical weather prediction models will offer a more realistic picture of what future weather might look like, hence facilitating adaptation planning and implementation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The film we produced particularly focuses on the extreme flood event in October 2005 that affected people (including fatalities) in Bergen municipality, how the event can be seen in context of historic floods and its atmospheric drivers. It tells the story of people having experienced this event and how Bergen municipality was responding to that event.&amp;#160; One key objective of the film is to drive interest and attention to the event-based storyline approach (Sillmann et al. 2020) to facilitate uptake of climate information and to empower decision makers with new knowledge and tools to assist them in their decision making.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;References&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Hazeleger, W., B. Van den Hurk, E. Min, G-J. Van Oldenborgh, A. Petersen, D. Stainforth, D., E. Vasileiadou, and L. Smith, 2015: Tales of future weather. Nature Climate Change, 5, 107-113, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2450.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Hegdahl, T.J., K. Engeland, M. M&amp;#252;ller and J. Sillmann, 2020: Atmospheric River induced floods in western Norway &amp;#8211; under present and future climate, J. Hydrometeorology, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-19-0071.1.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Schaller, N., J. Sillmann, M. Mueller, R. Haarsma, W. Hazeleger, T. Jahr Hegdahl, T. Kelder, G. van den Oord, A. Weerts, and K. Whan, 2020: The role of spatial and temporal model resolution in a flood event storyline approach in Western Norway, Weather and Climate Extremes, 29, doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100259.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Sillmann, J., T. G. Shepherd, B. van den Hurk, W. Hazeleger, O. Martius, J. Zscheischler, 2020: Event-based storylines to address climate risk, Earth&amp;#8217;s Future, doi: 10.1029/2020EF001783.&lt;/p&gt;


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