1628 Vaccination for Safe Surgery During The SARS-Cov-2 Pandemic: Modelling Study
Abstract Introduction Compared to the general population, in the postoperative period, surgical patients are both at increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and increased mortality in the event of SARS-CoV-2 infection. This study modelled the impact of preoperative vaccination of patients aged ≥70 years having elective inpatient surgery. Method The primary outcome was the number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent one death over one year following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. Postoperative SARS-CoV-2 incidence and adjusted mortality risk difference for SARS-CoV-2 infection were estimated from the prospective GlobalSurg-CovidSurg Week study (90,146 elective surgery patients across 1,595 hospitals in 115 countries), were used to estimate lives saved by vaccination in the first 30 postoperative days. SARS-CoV-2 case and death registration data from the Office for National Statistics was used to estimate NNTs for the general population. Best and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty around estimates. Results Among patients aged ≥70 years undergoing any type of surgery, NNT was estimated to be 332 (best case: 213; worst case: 690). NNT was lower in the cancer surgery subgroup (245 [150-545]). This was more favourable than the NNT for vaccination of the general population aged ≥70 (588 [403-1032]). Globally, vaccinating elective surgery patients aged ≥70 years preoperatively was projected to save 27,356 lives in one year compared to vaccinating the same patients after surgery. Conclusions Preoperative pathways should be set up for the vaccination of patients aged ≥70. In settings with limited vaccine availability, elective cancer surgery patients should be prioritised for vaccination.