scholarly journals The Logic of Ceasefires in Civil War

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Govinda Clayton ◽  
Valerie Sticher
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Third Parties ◽  
Bargaining Theory ◽  
Event Data ◽  
Peace Processes ◽  
Data Program ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Bargaining Problems

Abstract Ceasefires play a role in almost all civil war peace processes. Yet existing studies undertheorize the ways in which different logics drive the design of ceasefire agreements, and the effect this has on violence suspension. Building on bargaining theory and existing ceasefire literature, we identify different bargaining problems conflict parties face over the course of a conflict, and three classes of ceasefire design they use to address these problems. We argue that the effect of ceasefires is driven both by these underlying logics and by the provisions they contain. Building on the PA-X data to capture the provisions included within all written civil war ceasefires between 1990 and 2019, and using Uppsala Conflict Data Program georeferenced event data, we estimate models of ceasefire survival, with conflict deaths as the main measure of whether a ceasefire remains in place. We find that definitive ceasefires (i.e., agreements with demobilization and incompatibility provisions), followed by preliminary ceasefires (i.e., agreements with compliance mechanisms), are associated with longer periods of violence suspension than cessation of hostilities agreements that lack such provisions. We discuss the implications of our results for conflict parties and third parties seeking to facilitate the transition from war to peace.

scholarly journals Fragmentasi Pemberontak Dan Durasi Perang Sipil: Thailand Selatan Pasca Dimediasi Organisasi Kerjasama Islam

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 154
Author(s):  
Yurisa Irawan
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Qualitative Data ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Third Parties ◽  
Violent Conflict ◽  
Bargaining Theory ◽  
The Third ◽  
Southern Thailand ◽  
Hourglass Model ◽  
Mutual Agreement

Southern Thailand violent conflict, a civil war faced by Thailand Government against Pattani groups, has been lasted since 2004 without significant reconciliation.International organization, i.e., Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) has participated as the third actor striving for resolution. However, the conflict has been trapped in stagnancy. This study examines how three involving actors contributes to civil war duration. Third parties’ incapabilities, rebel fragmentation, and state’s power are the main reason why such a civil conflict could not reach a mutual agreement. Such conclusion is deduced based on qualitative data through two frameworks: Hourglass model and bargaining theory.

scholarly journals Bargaining Theory, Civil War Outcomes, and War Recurrence: Assessing the Results of Empirical Tests of the Theory

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caroline A. Hartzell
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Bargaining Theory ◽  
Intrastate Conflict ◽  
War Termination ◽  
Interstate War ◽  
Cast Doubt ◽  
Empirical Tests ◽  
War Outcomes ◽  
Bargaining Problems

Once ended, a significant number of civil wars recur. One influential empirical international relations theory on which scholars have drawn in an effort to provide an explanation for this phenomenon is the bargaining model of war. Devised initially for the study of interstate war, the theory posits that bargaining problems may prevent belligerents from reaching a deal that enables them to avoid a costly war. Bargaining problems also have been identified as contributing to the recurrence of armed intrastate conflict. Working within the framework of bargaining theory, a number of scholars have claimed that the most effective way to inhibit a return to civil war is to end the conflict via military victory as such an outcome is thought to help solve key bargaining problems. However, a growing number of empirical tests cast doubt on this proposition. An analysis of the results of these tests as well as new scholarship on civil war termination highlight some of the limitations inherent in employing a theory devised for the study of interstate war to analyze questions related to civil wars.

'A Very Quiet, Outspoken, Pleasant Gentleman [sic]': The United States Military Attaché's Reports on Baron von Ungern-Sternberg, March 1921

Inner Asia ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 365-377
Author(s):  
James Boyd
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil War ◽  
English Language ◽  
The United States ◽  
United States Military ◽  
Russian Civil War ◽  
Almost All

AbstractIn works dealing with modern Mongolia, the 'Mad' or 'Bloody' Baron UngernSternberg is always mentioned and, more often than not, the picture that is painted of him is a man driven by demons, someone who committed unspeakable atrocities against almost all he encountered. This article does not dispute that Ungern-Sternberg committed atrocities during the Russian civil War, but draws on contemporary english-language sources that suggest that the portrayal of the baron as a 'monster' is open to doubt.

Recognition of Belligerency and the Spanish War

1937 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 398-413 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vernon A. O'Rourke
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Spanish Civil War ◽  
Third Parties ◽  
The Other ◽  
The World ◽  
Illegal Acts ◽  
Legal Sense ◽  
High Seas

Few problems raised by the Spanish civil war are more interesting than those growing out of the fact that a state of war, in the legal sense, does not exist; belligerent rights have been accorded to neither of the contestants by third Powers. Consequently, on January 8 of this year, Germany turned over to the rebel authorities two Spanish loyalist vessels captured in retaliation to an “act of piracy”—an indictment earned by the loyalist government for its seizure of the German freighter, Palos. One may feel justifiably surprised that a government almost universally recognized as legitimate can be charged with piratical activities. Further reflection reveals that the Spanish situation presents many more questions concerning the rights and duties of the contestants as against third parties. In the absence of the recognition of belligerency, what are the rights of loyalist and rebel ships on the high seas? In the territorial waters of Spain? May the fascist or socialistic factions establish blockades? What are the powers and validity of their prize courts? Who is answerable for the illegal acts of the rebels should they lose—or be victorious? What claims will the Spanish Government have as against third Powers should one or the other prove successful? May the loyalist authorities by simple decree close to neutral trade the ports held by the insurgents? Moreover, how would all of these matters be affected if the maritime Powers of the world were to recognize the existence of a state of war, i.e., belligerency, in Spain? And, finally, in view of the magnitude and duration of the struggle, is there any justification for withholding such recognition?

scholarly journals Immigration of British Coal Miners in the Civil War Decade

1978 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 357-375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Zahl Gottlieb
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil War ◽  
The United States ◽  
Foreign Born ◽  
United States Census ◽  
Coal Miners ◽  
Economic Depression ◽  
Wage Earners ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Cost

British coal miners immigrated to the United States in increasing numbers during the Civil War decade. Their movement from the collieries gathered momentum in the early war years and reached its peak in 1869. In 1862, almost all of the immigrants entering the United States who listed their occupation as “miner” were from Britain. As shown in the table, such men accounted for more than 73% of all immigrant miners in each of the following years of the decade for which data are available, with the exception of 1864. In 1870, the 57,214 British immigrant miners listed in the United States Census represented more than 60% of all foreign-born miners (94,719) in the country. The movement from Britain had already slowed when news of the American economic depression that began in 1873 reached the collieries in Britain, where an extraordinary demand for iron in the early 1870's had hiked coal miners' wages far above normal levels. However, when employment in the American coalfields was readily available in the 1860's and early 1870's, the risk involved in spending hard-won savings on the journey, which cost approximately £5 and took ten days by steamer, appeared reasonable. In comparison with other wage earners coal miners in Britain were relatively well-paid. They could, therefore, accumulate the cost of the trans-Atlantic passage during “good-times” at home.

scholarly journals II. Notes on the Life of Thomas Rainborowe, Officer in the Army and Navy in the service of the Parliament of England

Archaeologia ◽  
1880 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-64
Author(s):  
Edward Peacock
Keyword(s):  
Seventeenth Century ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Great Degree ◽  
The Other ◽  
Modern History ◽  
Biographical Dictionary ◽  
The Common ◽  
Common Memory ◽  
Almost All

The want of a really good biographical dictionary of Englishmen is, perhaps, more felt by those whose vocation it is to investigate the details of the great civil war of the seventeenth century than by students of any other class. The fame of three or four of the leading spirits of the time has eclipsed in the common memory almost all the other people who took an important part in the struggle between Charles the First and his Parliament. Such must be in a great degree the case whenever the dramatic interest of the story centres in the actions of one commanding intellect or the misfortunes and errors of a single sufferer; but there is, we believe, no other great crisis in modern history where the less known have been permitted to remain so entirely unknown as the time of which we speak.

scholarly journals Federico García Lorca : el 75 aniversario de su muerte

2011 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 113-122
Author(s):  
Eszter Katona
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Spanish Civil War ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Historical Memory ◽  
The Body ◽  
Birth Date ◽  
Federico Garcia Lorca ◽  
Franco Regime ◽  
The Family ◽  
Almost All

The anniversary of Federico Garría Lorca's death and the outbreak of the Spanish Civil War is closely intertwined in the Spanish public awareness. The poet's birth date is equally an important date in the his toy of the Iberian nation, as Spain has lost its last colonies in 1898. Besides these two memorable dates, we also have to highlight 2007, when the Historical Memory Law (Ley de Memoria Histórica) was enacted, aiming to rehabilitate the victims of the Civil War and the Franco regime. This measure has launched such an avalanche on Spanish public life, that affected almost all the society in some way. The family of Garcia Lorca also had to take a commitment as the resting place of their world-famous relative was still unknown. In addition to the identification of the body of the dead poet, Lorca's homosexuality is a constant topic in literary and historical arríes. Today, Spanish society accepts the sexual orientation of the poet, but it remains disputed whether it had a real effec t on Lorca's poetry. Lorca's Hungarian popularity began in 1947 when Gypsy Ballads was issued then the premier of Bernarda in 1955, and has remained unbroken ever since. In connection with this year's anniversary, this study aims to present these three topics — the location of Lorca's resting place, Lorca's homosexuality, Lorca's reception in Hungary.

What’s going on next door? Irregular leader change in neighboring countries, uncertainty, and civil war

2020 ◽  
pp. 002234332091309
Author(s):  
Casper Sakstrup
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Third Parties ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Spatial Analyses ◽  
Access To Information ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Foreign Policy Change ◽  
Leader Change

Uncertainty about capabilities or resolve is a prominent explanation for war between states. However, we know comparatively little about uncertainty as a cause of armed conflict between domestic actors. This article proposes that irregular leader change in a neighboring country generates uncertainty about third-party resolve and thus increases the likelihood of intrastate armed conflict. I argue that domestic actors take potential third parties’ capabilities and resolve into account when bargaining, that neighboring countries are important potential third parties, and that irregular leader change among these potential third parties results in uncertainty because there is an increased risk of foreign policy change combined with limited access to information. With uncertain estimates of third-party resolve, the risk of bargaining failure and armed conflict increases. Global spatial analyses spanning 1946–2014 corroborate the argument. As expected, I find that irregular leader change in one or more neighboring countries increases the probability of intrastate armed conflict onset. The results are robust across three different distance thresholds for neighboring countries, using time and country fixed effects and several alternative model specifications. Overall, this article advances our knowledge about uncertainty as a cause of civil war and sheds new light on the adverse consequences of irregular leader change.

The Legacy of Conflict: Reconstruction and Migration in the Aftermath of Civil War in Tajikistan

2021 ◽  
pp. 019791832110254
Author(s):  
Michelle L. O’Brien
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Resource Center ◽  
Combining Data ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Data Program ◽  
Development Resource ◽  
The Relationship

How do civil war and subsequent reconstruction efforts affect international migration? Although a wealth of evidence points to violent conflict’s effects on contemporaneous migration and although a rich body of literature examines development’s effects on migration, we know less about the intersection of conflict, development, and migration. This article examines the intersection of these factors nearly a decade after the 1992–1997 civil war in Tajikistan, combining data from the 2007 Tajikistan Living Standards Survey, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, and original interviews. In a series of logistic regression models, I show that conflict fatalities do not have a direct effect on subsequent migration, while the number of years a district has had a development resource center directly increases the likelihood of migrating. However, the interaction between development and conflict is negative and significant. These findings suggest that conflict’s legacy does not directly impact the likelihood of respondents migrating but instead changes the nature of the relationship between development and migration. This finding illuminates conflict’s potential long-term consequences for migration and extends the migration-development nexus by addressing the role of conflict in the relationship between development and migration. In particular, it suggests that migration research in conflict-affected countries should incorporate measures of both conflict and development, even after a given conflict has ended.

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