scholarly journals Experiments on Belief Formation in Networks

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veronika Grimm ◽  
Friederike Mengel
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Laboratory Experiment ◽  
Network Structure ◽  
Bayesian Model ◽  
The State ◽  
Belief Formation ◽  
The World ◽  
Degroot Model ◽  
Individual Decisions ◽  
Naive Model

Abstract We study belief formation in social networks using a laboratory experiment. Participants in our experiment observe an imperfect private signal on the state of the world and then simultaneously and repeatedly guess the state, observing the guesses of their network neighbors in each period. Across treatments we vary the network structure and the amount of information participants have about the network. Our first result shows that information about the network structure matters and in particular affects the share of correct guesses in the network. This is inconsistent with the widely used naive (deGroot) model. The naive model is, however, consistent with a larger share of individual decisions than the competing Bayesian model, whereas both models correctly predict only about 25%–30% of consensus beliefs. We then estimate a larger class of models and find that participants do indeed take network structure into account when updating beliefs. In particular they discount information from neighbors if it is correlated, but in a more rudimentary way than a Bayesian learner would.

scholarly journals Forecasting of Development Trends of Social Media Marketing in Ukraine

2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 41-45
Author(s):  
Z. P. Dvulit ◽  
O. Yu. Onyshchenko
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Social Network ◽  
The State ◽  
Social Media Marketing ◽  
Development Trends ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
High Level

The concept of social media marketing, its main tools and opportunities for using the company to communicate with clients and receive feedback are considered. The necessity of using social media marketing company has been determined, 48 % of consumers increase desire to buy a product of a brand that reacts sensitively to its customers in social media. The rating of the most popular social networks of the world is made. The state of social media marketing in Ukraine, tools of its application is investigated. The most used sites in Ukraine are considered and it is found that the first places in the rating are social networks. Three of the top five most popular sites are social networks. The rating of the most popular social networks in Ukraine is built. It is revealed that for Ukraine, social media marketing is relatively new, since it appeared only a few years ago, but today it has become quite powerful. Recently, there have been even special agencies that provide SMM services to companies. Despite the fact that SMM is only beginning to develop actively in Ukraine, it is worth noting how fast it develops and at what high level it is now. The number of users of social networks is increasing every minute both in the world and in Ukraine, further forecasts predict an even greater increase in interest in social networks in the future. It is revealed that in Ukraine the most popular social network is Facebook (in June 2017, Facebook reached 51.96 %). Based on the data on the use of social networks by online users, a forecast is made for the development of the five most popular social networks in Ukraine including Facebook, VKontake, YouTube, Instagram, Odnoklassniki. Based on the forecast it is defined that the number of users of such social networks as VKontakte and Odnoklassniki will decrease with time, and Youtube, Facebook, and Instagram will grow steadily.

The Logic of Revolutions

2019 ◽  
pp. 344-360
Author(s):  
Timur Kuran ◽  
Diego Romero
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Collective Action ◽  
Network Structure ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Diffusion Of Information ◽  
The World ◽  
Individual Decisions ◽  
Expected Payoffs ◽  
Individual Choices

However easily explicable in hindsight, revolutions are typically unforeseeable, because key determinants of individual decisions to join protests are unobservable. Coupled with the interdependence of individual choices, unobservability ensures that many revolutions occur through cascades. Surveying research on the dynamics of revolutions, this article evaluates insights into the connections between the likelihood of protests and individual freedoms. Other findings include: that network structure shapes motivations to participate in collective action; that social media facilitate mobilization and also quicken the diffusion of information through pre-established networks; that using social media as a mobilization tool poses growing personal risks as regimes learn to monitor the internet; and that a revolution may trigger other revolutions by altering individuals’ expected payoffs around the world.

scholarly journals Counterfactuals with Latent Information

2022 ◽  
Vol 112 (1) ◽  
pp. 343-368
Author(s):  
Dirk Bergemann ◽  
Benjamin Brooks ◽  
Stephen Morris
Keyword(s):  
Expected Utility ◽  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Information Structure ◽  
The State ◽  
Linear Inequalities ◽  
Differential Information ◽  
Infinite Dimensional ◽  
The World ◽  
Strategic Agents

We describe a methodology for making counterfactual predictions in settings where the information held by strategic agents and the distribution of payoff-relevant states of the world are unknown. The analyst observes behavior assumed to be rationalized by a Bayesian model, in which agents maximize expected utility, given partial and differential information about the state. A counterfactual prediction is desired about behavior in another strategic setting, under the hypothesis that the distribution of the state and agents’ information about the state are held fixed. When the data and the desired counterfactual prediction pertain to environments with finitely many states, players, and actions, the counterfactual prediction is described by finitely many linear inequalities, even though the latent parameter, the information structure, is infinite dimensional. (JEL D44, D82, D83)

scholarly journals Prediction of suicidal ideation in young people from the analysis of texts in social networks written in Mexican spanish: a review of the state of the art

2020 ◽  
pp. 29-33
Author(s):  
Gabriel AGUILERA-GONZÁLEZ ◽  
Christian PADILLA-NAVARRO ◽  
Carlos ZARATE-TREJO ◽  
Georges KHALAF
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Natural Language Processing ◽  
Early Detection ◽  
Natural Language ◽  
Language Processing ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
The State ◽  
World Health ◽  
Mexican Spanish ◽  
The World

Suicide prevention is one of the great issues of the current era. Institutions such as the World Health Organization, have continued to search for all possible alternatives for early detection and timely prevention. Suicide rates have grown more and more in the world, and Mexico, although it is not the country with the most suicides, is one of the countries with the highest growth in recent years. At present, the use of social networks has generated great changes in the way we communicate. Expressing yourself through a social network begins to be more common than expressing ourselves to human beings. Several studies, which will be presented later, show that it is possible to determine from the content of social networks: cases of depression, risk of suicide, and other mental problems. The use of technological tools, such as Natural Language Processing, has served as an effective ally for the early detection of risks, such as abuse, bullying or even detecting emotional problems. The present research seeks to carry out an in-depth analysis in the state of the art of the application of Natural Language Processing as an ally for the detection of suicide risk from the analysis of texts for Mexican Spanish in Social Networks.

TOURIST BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT IN UKRAINE

2019 ◽  
pp. 39-46
Author(s):  
Stefania Mosiuk ◽  
Igor Mosiuk ◽  
Vladimir Mosiuk
Keyword(s):  
National Economy ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Business Development ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
The State ◽  
Complete Analysis ◽  
Resource Potential ◽  
The World ◽  
Potential Resource ◽  
Favorable Conditions

The purpose of the article is to analyze and substantiate the development of tourism business in Ukraine as a priority component of the national economy. The methodology of this study is to use analytical, spatial, geographical, cultural and other methods. This methodological approach provided an opportunity to carry out a complete analysis of the state of the tourism industry of the state and to draw some conclusions.The scientific novelty lies in the coverage of the real and potential resource potential for the development of the recreational and tourism sphere in Ukraine, detailing the measures for the country ‘s entry into the world tourist market. Conclusions. Analyzing the state and prospects of tourism business development in Ukraine, it should be noted that this industry is one of the priority areas for improving the economy of the country. Historical, cultural – ethnographic, gastronomic, sanatorium and resort potentials of the country will lead the country into world leaders of the tourism industry when creating favorable conditions for investment and proper marketing.

Emotive Trending And Tracking of Tweets

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Sanjay Chhataru Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Social Network ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World ◽  
Complex Events

Popularity of the social media and the amount of importance given by an individual to social media has significantly increased in last few years. As more and more people become part of the social networks like Twitter, Facebook, information which flows through the social network, can potentially give us good understanding about what is happening around in our locality, state, nation or even in the world. The conceptual motive behind the project is to develop a system which analyses about a topic searched on Twitter. It is designed to assist Information Analysts in understanding and exploring complex events as they unfold in the world. The system tracks changes in emotions over events, signalling possible flashpoints or abatement. For each trending topic, the system also shows a sentiment graph showing how positive and negative sentiments are trending as the topic is getting trended.

The World Opened to Everyone. The Main Library of Krasnoyarsk Region has Celebrated 75-year Anniversary

2010 ◽  
pp. 99-100
Author(s):  
Julia N. Shubnikova
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
The State ◽  
Krasnoyarsk Region ◽  
The World ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Krasnodar Region

On the State Universal Scientific Library of the Krasnodar region, which is one of the largest regional libraries in the Russian Federation.

Digital Economy: New Opportunities and Threats for the Development of the World Economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 18-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. A. Strelkova
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Practical Experience ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Digital Economy ◽  
The State ◽  
Market Exchange ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The World ◽  
Business Structures ◽  
Definition Of

The paper examines various approaches to the definition of the term «digital economy» in the scientific and business environment along with factors and forms of its development in different countries taking into account the specifics of the current stage of the Russian economy, which is a matter of particular importance in seeking new sources of the world economy growth. The subject of the research is opportunities and threats inherent in the process of digitalization of economies and their impact on the operation of international and national markets as well as the development of the world economy as a whole. The purpose of the paper was to analyze the practical experience in the formation and development of the digital economy in foreign countries and Russia and identify the changes it brings to the activities of state institutions and business structures, established rules of market exchange, the process of promotion and use of innovations. All the above made it possible to determine the country-level specifics of the digital economy evolution reveal the contradictory nature of its manifestations and justify the necessity for active participation of the state in stimulation and support of potentially promising digital innovations in various sectors of the economy. It is concluded that the level of the digital economy development depends on the real-sector performance, the maturity of markets, the state of the national economy. It is highlighted that the criteria for a comprehensive assessment of the results of the economy digitalization must be developed.

KEY ASPECTS OF TRANSFORMATION OF THE STATE AUTHORITIES IN THE WORLD AND TO THE MODERN SOVERUM UKRAINE: A JOINT AND PERSONALITY

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (11) ◽  
pp. 164-174
Author(s):  
Оlena Fedorіvna Caracasidi
Keyword(s):  
Separation Of Powers ◽  
Human Life ◽  
State Power ◽  
The State ◽  
Public Power ◽  
The People ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
The World ◽  
Distribution Of Power ◽  
Key Aspects

The article deals with the fundamental, inherent in most of the countries of the world transformation of state power, its formation, functioning and division between the main branches as a result of the decentralization of such power, its subsidiarity. Attention is drawn to the specifics of state power, its func- tional features in the conditions of sovereignty of the states, their interconnec- tion. It is emphasized that the nature of the state power is connected with the nature of the political system of the state, with the form of government and many other aspects of a fundamental nature.It is analyzed that in the middle of national states the questions of legitima- cy, sovereignty of transparency of state power, its formation are acutely raised. Concerning the practical functioning of state power, a deeper study now needs a problem of separation of powers and the distribution of power. The use of this principle, which ensures the real subsidiarity of the authorities, the formation of more effective, responsible democratic relations between state power and civil society, is the first priority of the transformation of state power in the conditions of modern transformations of countries and societies. It is substantiated that the research of these problems will open up much wider opportunities for the provi- sion of state power not as a center authority, but also as a leading political structure but as a power of the people and the community. In the context of global democratization processes, such processes are crucial for a more humanistic and civilized arrangement of human life. It is noted that local self-government, as a specific form of public power, is also characterized by an expressive feature of a special subject of power (territorial community) as a set of large numbers of people; joint communal property; tax system, etc.

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