scholarly journals A Bayesian analysis of the total number of cases of the COVID 19 when only a few data is available. A case study in the state of Goias, Brazil

Author(s):  
Renato Rodrigues Silva ◽  
Wisley Donizetti Velasco ◽  
Wanderson da Silva Marques ◽  
Carlos Augusto Gonçalves Tibiriçá

AbstractThe outbreak of COVID 19 has been provoking several problems to the health system around the world. One of the concerning is the crash of the health system due to the increasing demand suddenly. To avoid it, knowing the total number and daily new cases is crucial. In this study, we fitted curves growth models using a Bayesian approach. We extracted information obtained from some countries to build the prior distribution of the model. The total number of cases of the COVID 19 in the state of Goias was analyzed. Results from analysis indicated that the date of the outbreak peak is between 51 and 68 days after the beginning. Moreover, the total number of cases is around 3180 cases. The analysis did not take into consideration possibles changes in government control measures. We hope this study can provide some valuable information to public health management.

2021 ◽  
Vol 263 (6) ◽  
pp. 206-214
Author(s):  
David Montes-González ◽  
Juan Miguel Barrigón-Morillas ◽  
Ana Cristina Bejarano-Quintas ◽  
Manuel Parejo-Pizarro ◽  
Guillermo Rey-Gozalo ◽  
...  

The pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) led to the need for drastic control measures around the world to reduce the impact on the health of the population. The confinement of people in their homes resulted in a significant reduction in human activity at every level (economic, social, industrial, etc.), which was reflected in a decrease in environmental pollution levels. Studying the evolution of parameters, such as the level of environmental noise caused by vehicle traffic in urban environments, makes it possible to assess the impact of this type of measure. This paper presents a case study of the acoustic situation in Cáceres (Spain) during the restriction period by means of long-term acoustic measurements at various points of the city.


Author(s):  
Tatyana Vladislavovna Plotnikova ◽  
Vadim Vitalyevich Kharin

The narcotics problem has plagued humanity throughout all stages of its development. However, in conditions of 21th century, the threat of narcotism has become very urgent. Studying the world experience in the narcotism control measures implementation, we can identify several main mechanisms of counteraction. In this study, we present and analyze these mechanisms in detail. As for Russia, we can say that we are implementing a repressive social control model, but there are rudiments and predispositions to a restrictive model. In general, the narcotics problem has plagued our country throughout history. We show the relation and ways of fight against narcotics in the conditions of different historical stages. However, in the 21th century, narcotic addiction has reached unprecedented proportions and now represents a very dangerous threat to our state. The involvement of a large number of people in such a harmful social phenomenon was influenced by a number of certain factors characteristic of Russia. The very dangerous threat of narcotism to the Russia national security is also shown by the state counteraction dynamism against this phenomenon. This study shows the main mechanisms of narcotism implementation.


Author(s):  
Suryo Guritno

<p>Progress in technology has make a method of delivery of goods that more and more efficient and effective of various modes of transportation. For four the last decade, the number of estimates trade in the sea has increase fourfold , from 8 trillion tons a nautical miles in 2008 (ICS : 2010). Throughout the 20th century , shipping industry the world has experienced the trend of increased the total volume of trade. The industrialized and liberalization the various peoples  triggered free trade and increasing demand for consumer products. In spite of multilateral diplomatic problems among nations , the development of world economy was advanced has caused the limits of the country began disguised, trade ships with any nationality , can be easily do their activities in any country , a ship that is manned by sailors of another race will interact with the parties outside the ship which certainly have different languages. The importance of english language proficiency in this context is to support boat safety because of several factors the case study of an accident of a vessel which is often occur because of a misunderstanding in communications where take care of less officer to take control of the english that well. The problems discussed in this journal is communication between a ship or bridge to bridge communication , and interen vessel in communication related to operational above a ship. Where the data in extract derived from case study accident a ship which occurs because<br />misunderstanding different language used above the ship it self .</p><p><strong>Keywords : Brige to Bridge, shipwreck, Deck Officer, Marine Communication Standard</strong></p><p><strong><br /></strong></p><p>Kemajuan teknologi telah membuat metode pengiriman barang yang semakin efisien dan efektif dari berbagai moda transportasi. Selama empat dekade terakhir, jumlah perkiraan perdagangan di laut telah meningkat empat kali lipat, dari hanya 8 triliun ton per mil laut pada tahun 2008 (ICS : 2010). Sepanjang abad ke-20, industry perkapalan dunia telah mengalami kecenderungan peningkatan total volume perdagangan. Meningkatnya industrialisasi dan liberalisasi ekonomi berbagai bangsa telah memicu perdagangan bebas dan miningkatnya permintaan untuk produk-produk konsumen. Terlepas dari persoalan diplomatik multilateral antar bangsa, perkembangan ekonomi dunia yang begitu pesat telah menyebabkan batas-batas negara mulai tersamarkan, kapal-kapal niaga dengan kebangsaan manapun, dapat dengan mudah melakukan kegiatannya di negara manapun, yang berarti suatu kapal yang diawaki oleh pelaut dari bangsa lain akan berinteraksi dengan pihak-pihak di luar kapalnya yang tentu saja memiliki bahasa yang berbeda. Pentingnya penguasaan bahasa Inggris dalam hal ini adalah untuk menunjang keselamatan kapal karena adanya beberapa faktor studi kasus kecelakaan kapal yang sering terjadi karena adanya kesalahpahaman dalam berkomunikasi dimana perwira jaga kurang menguasai bahasa Inggris dengan baik. Permasalahan yang akan dibahas pada jurnal ini adalah komunikasi antar kapal atau Bridge to Bridge Communication, maupun interen vessel in communication yang berhubungan erat dengan operasional diatas kapal. Dimana data yang di ambil berasal dari studi kasus kecelakaan kapal yang terjadi karena kesalahpahaman perbedaan bahasa yang<br />digunakan di atas kapal itu sendiri.</p><p><strong>Kata kunci : Komunikasi antar kapal, Kecelakaan kapal, Deck Officer, Standard Marine</strong><br /><strong>Communication</strong></p><p><strong><br /></strong></p>


An increasing demand for space travel, the creation of commercial enterprises and travel agencies in the field of space industry, the development of vehicles intended solely for the transportation of tourists to space – all this suggests that space can soon turn from a matter of scientific research into a tourist destination. Therefore, today the study of the state and prospects of space tourism development is a hot topic. The subject of research in the article is the development of space tourism in the world. The goal is to identify the main factors constraining the development of space tourism in the world. The objectives are to explore the economic benefits of space tourism development and the possibility of increasing commercial enterprises in the field of space industry; to evaluate key concepts involved in developing ways to reduce or eliminate social, economic problems arising in the field of space tourism. General scientific methods used: system analysis and factor analysis. The results of this study: the main economic advantages, disadvantages and problems of space tourism have been revealed; the state have been analyzed, and prospects for the development of space tourism have been identified; the need to study the fundamentals of space tourism development in the future have been determined, its impact on society and those who participate in it, the importance of upcoming efforts and possible policy recommendations have been evaluated. Special attention is paid to the review of space law treaties, agreements and conventions on space tourism. The authors conclude that space tourism is showing rapid development, and the space industry remains one of the promising investment sectors which may become the main direction of development of space activities in the future. Because space tourism is a certain market niche that can contribute to the use of infrastructure in space, especially due to the upcoming discoveries.


2019 ◽  
pp. 128-141
Author(s):  
I. V. Karikh ◽  
V. V. Myrgorod-Karpova

Most countries in the world are building a state system of financial control and control over international finances, taking into account the fundamental principles laid down in international legal sources and on the basis of world experience. The realization of the task of ensuring sustainable economic, social and political development of Ukraine requires further investigation of the problems of establishing effective control over international finances and initiating the reform process in this field, which can become a key element in the complex systemic transformations in the financial sphere and the construction of a new financial system of the state. We believe that Ukraine should look for the most important challenges of today, drawing on international experience in this field, with a view to its further use. The importance and importance of using foreign experience is also closely linked to the process of state integration into the world community and the implementation of international practice of financial control. Therefore, it is crucial for Ukraine to study foreign experience of financial control and to borrow appropriate experience in this field in order to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the domestic financial control system. It should be noted that the global practice in the field of financial control is extremely voluminous and multifaceted, it has different approaches to the organization and implementation of control measures, most of which have been validated over time. N. Lazareva and GV Dmitrenko point out that the choice of a particular model is based on the relevant factors: the state of democratic development of society and the level of construction of civil society, the specifics of the distribution of powers between branches of government, the normalized form of government, historically accepted in the state form of government, historically the way of development of statehood and development of institute of financial control [2, p. 68; 3, p. 22]. Most countries in the world have gone a long way in finding ways to develop and build financial control. The highest financial control authorities in most countries of the world have endured a long period of searching for their effective functioning and implementation of really effective control measures. For example, the National Audit Office of Great Britain was formed in 1120, the Regular Audit Organization of Belgium - 1386, the General Chamber of Prussia - 1714, the Main Accountancy Chamber of the Principality of Warsaw - 1808, etc. [4, p. 127]. Such bodies were far from the current vision of public authorities in the area of financial control. However, they have become the prototype of the current institutions, with a defined range of tasks, functions, powers and goals for their implementation. Given the challenges and needs of today, the powers of such institutions and bodies have been expanded to control the cash provided or received in the form of international financial assistance. Unfortunately, historically Ukraine has been deprived of the possibility of gradually building state institutions in this area. Gaining independence in 1991 put the country in a position to address key challenges to economic development and the effective functioning of public authorities and government. Considering this fact, we consider that foreign experience in any sphere for Ukraine is the most valuable source of solving urgent problems, including the borrowing of the world practice of organization of financial control, control in the sphere of international finances and proper regulatory fixing of such mechanism. Keywords: international finance, international financial assistance, control over international finance in Ukraine.


Author(s):  
Stefanie Van de Peer

The first case study deals with the ‘mother’ of Egyptian documentary making Ateyyat el Abnoudy, and traces her career as a lawyer, journalist and filmmaker. As a pioneer of politically engaged and socially preoccupied documentary, she has influenced many young female filmmakers. Since the early seventies, her films, both short and feature length, have been celebrated throughout the world at festivals and retrospectives, but remain controversial in Egypt itself. This case study looks in detail at her early short films, Horse of Mud (1971), Sad Song of Touha (1972) and The Sandwich (1975), as well as feature length documentaries Permissible Dreams (1982), Responsible Women (1994) and Days of Democracy (1996). Dealing with the lower classes, women’s issues, education and illiteracy among women, their personal status and their political situation in Egypt, the films reflect a concern with the subaltern woman. The filmmaker’s concern with the subaltern woman stems from an intellectual preoccupation with inequality and a professional insight into the unwillingness of the state to deal with women’s problems.


1987 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 41-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrice Franko-Jones

In Less than Twenty Years Brazil has become one of the ten largest exporters of conventional armaments in the world. How the Brazilian armaments industry has achieved such success offers a rich case study of an effective division of labor between state and firm. With the state acting as technological agent and ambassador to external markets, the firms have become innovators of internationally competitive armaments systems. Rather than being forced, by military control, to produce highly sophisticated weapons systems, Brazilian defense firms receive support to develop products which cater to an international demand for those conventional armaments which occupy a niche just below the technological frontier defined by the superpowers.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Weka ◽  
Dauda Bwala ◽  
Yinka Adedeji ◽  
Isioma Ifende ◽  
Anvou Davou ◽  
...  

Pigs are vital to the economy and critical in meeting the ever increasing demand for livestock and livestock products in most parts of the world. Pig is one of the oldest domesticated animals, though their ancestory is still shrouded in controversy due to lack of sufficient archaeological and genetic information. However, most of the breeds are thought to have descended from the Eurasian Wild Boar (Sus scrofa). This chapter will therefore look at the African pig under the following headings: Introduction, origin of pigs – genetic and historical/archaeological evidences, pig breeds in Africa, economic importance of pig production in Africa, marketing of pigs in Africa, herd health management of pigs in Africa, and challenges affecting pig production in Africa.


1939 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 292-317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elton Atwater

At a time when the subject of arms embargoes and arms export control is arousing considerable interest both at home and abroad, it is not untimely to examine the system of control which has developed in one of the chief arms producing and exporting countries of the world—Great Britain. Much attention has been devoted to the alleged evils of the international traffic in arms, and to the desirability of an effective government control over all armaments exports. Little consideration, on the other hand, has been given by writers to the question of how such control should be administered by a government, and what measures are actually involved. Taking the experience of Great Britain as a case study, the writer proposes in the following pages to trace the development of arms export control in that country, to examine the ways in which it has been administered, and to point out some of the difficulties which have been encountered. The present article may be looked upon, therefore, as a case study in the broader subject of national controls over the export of war materials.


2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 649-656
Author(s):  
Marco Agustin Liñan-Cabello ◽  
Ana Luz Quintanilla-Montoya ◽  
Cesar Sepúlveda-Quiroz ◽  
Omar D. Cervantes-Rosas

In Mexico, as in many other Latin American countries, the lack of a development plan and/or prevention in aquaculture to environmental variability is evident. In the State of Colima, aquaculture presents lags in terms of technical and productive capacity especially for growing tilapia Oreochromis spp. Surveys were performed to farmers and experts, in addition to consulting scientific literature sources, and identifying different risk factors arising from the practice of aquaculture in order to assess the vulnerability of the sector. The main risk factor associated with hydrometeorological phenomena, for which the need to define high-risk areas, even more, given the uncertainty of the same due to global climate change is recognized. This study proposes to implement a comprehensive program of technological conversion and control measures for alien species that also consider aquaculture production schemes based on the efficient use of water, and to consider using this endemic species for cultivation.


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