scholarly journals Data-driven analysis on the simulations of the spread of COVID-19 under different interventions of China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ting Tian ◽  
Jingwen Zhang ◽  
Shiyun Lin ◽  
Yukang Jiang ◽  
Jianbin Tan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Latent Variables ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
The United States ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Potential Outcomes ◽  
Markov Structure ◽  
Short Time

ABSTRACTSince February 2020, COVID-19 has spread rapidly to more than 200 countries in the world. During the pandemic, local governments in China have implemented different interventions to efficiently control the spread of the epidemic. Characterizing transmission of COVID-19 under some typical interventions is essential to help countries develop appropriate interventions. Based on the pre-symptomatic transmission patterns of COVID-19, we established a novel compartmental model: Baysian SIHR model with latent Markov structure, which treated the numbers of infected and infectious individuals without isolation to be the latent variables and allowed the effective reproduction number to change over time, thus the effects of policies could be reasonably estimated. By using the epidemic data of Wuhan, Wenzhou and Shenzhen, we migrated the corresponding estimated policy modes to South Korea, Italy, and the United States and simulated the potential outcomes for these countries when they adopted similar policy strategies of three cities in China. We found that the mild interventions implemented in Shenzhen were effective to control the epidemic in the early stage, while more stringent policies which were issued in Wuhan and Wenzhou were necessary if the epidemic was more severe and needed to be controlled in a short time.

scholarly journals Public Compliance With Social Distancing Measures and SARS-CoV-2 Spread

2021 ◽  
pp. 003335492110112
Author(s):  
Hongjie Liu ◽  
Chang Chen ◽  
Raul Cruz-Cano ◽  
Jennifer L. Guida ◽  
Minha Lee
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Density Change ◽  
Regression Coefficients ◽  
Daily Growth Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Social Distancing

Objective We quantified the association between public compliance with social distancing measures and the spread of SARS-CoV-2 during the first wave of the epidemic (March–May 2020) in 5 states that accounted for half of the total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States. Methods We used data on mobility and number of COVID-19 cases to longitudinally estimate associations between public compliance, as measured by human mobility, and the daily reproduction number and daily growth rate during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in California, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York. Results The 5 states mandated social distancing directives during March 19-24, 2020, and public compliance with mandates started to decrease in mid-April 2020. As of May 31, 2020, the daily reproduction number decreased from 2.41-5.21 to 0.72-1.19, and the daily growth rate decreased from 0.22-0.77 to –0.04 to 0.05 in the 5 states. The level of public compliance, as measured by the social distancing index (SDI) and daily encounter-density change, was high at the early stage of implementation but decreased in the 5 states. The SDI was negatively associated with the daily reproduction number (regression coefficients range, –0.04 to –0.01) and the daily growth rate (from –0.009 to –0.01). The daily encounter-density change was positively associated with the daily reproduction number (regression coefficients range, 0.24 to 1.02) and the daily growth rate (from 0.05 to 0.26). Conclusions Social distancing is an effective strategy to reduce the incidence of COVID-19 and illustrates the role of public compliance with social distancing measures to achieve public health benefits.

The Rise of Anchor Institutions and the Threat to Community Health: Protecting Community Wealth, Building Community Power

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence T. Brown ◽  
Ashley Bachelder ◽  
Marisela B. Gomez ◽  
Alicia Sherrell ◽  
Imani Bryan
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
The United States ◽  
Public Health Research ◽  
Ethical Implications ◽  
Anchor Institutions ◽  
Health Related Research ◽  
Research Parks ◽  
Wealth Building

Academic institutions are increasingly playing pivotal roles in economic development and community redevelopment in cities around the United States. Many are functioning in the role of anchor institutions and building technology, biotechnology, or research parks to facilitate biomedical research. In the process, universities often partner with local governments, implementing policies that displace entire communities and families, thereby inducing a type of trauma that researcher Mindy Thompson Fullilove has termed “root shock.” We argue that displacement is a threat to public health and explore the ethical implications of university-led displacement on public health research, especially the inclusion of vulnerable populations into health-related research. We further explicate how the legal system has sanctioned the exercise of eminent domain by private entities such as universities and developers.Strategies that communities have employed in order to counter such threats are highlighted and recommended for communities that may be under the threat of university-led displacement. We also offer a critical look at the three dominant assumptions underlying university-sponsored development: that research parks are engines of economic development, that deconcentrating poverty via displacement is effective, and that poverty is simply the lack of economic or financial means. Understanding these fallacies will help communities under the threat of university-sponsored displacement to protect community wealth, build power, and improve health.

Bringing the Real World of Science to Children: A Partnership of the American Museum of Natural History and the City University of New York

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony G Picciano ◽  
Robert V. Steiner
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
Natural History ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Compulsory Education ◽  
Development Program ◽  
The United States ◽  
American Museum ◽  
The World ◽  
The City

Every child has a right to an education. In the United States, the issue is not necessarily about access to a school but access to a quality education. With strict compulsory education laws, more than 50 million students enrolled in primary and secondary schools, and billions of dollars spent annually on public and private education, American children surely have access to buildings and classrooms. However, because of a complex and competitive system of shared policymaking among national, state, and local governments, not all schools are created equal nor are equal education opportunities available for the poor, minorities, and underprivileged. One manifestation of this inequity is the lack of qualified teachers in many urban and rural schools to teach certain subjects such as science, mathematics, and technology. The purpose of this article is to describe a partnership model between two major institutions (The American Museum of Natural History and The City University of New York) and the program designed to improve the way teachers are trained and children are taught and introduced to the world of science. These two institutions have partnered on various projects over the years to expand educational opportunity especially in the teaching of science. One of the more successful projects is Seminars on Science (SoS), an online teacher education and professional development program, that connects teachers across the United States and around the world to cutting-edge research and provides them with powerful classroom resources. This article provides the institutional perspectives, the challenges and the strategies that fostered this partnership.

Markets, Technological Change and Economic Growth (The Quaid-i-Azam Lecture)

1994 ◽  
Vol 33 (4I) ◽  
pp. 327-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard G. Lipsey
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Common Ground ◽  
The United States ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
Canadian Institute ◽  
Primary Focus ◽  
Short Time

I am honoured to be invited to give this lecture before so distinguished an audience of development economists. For the last 21/2 years I have been director of a project financed by the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research and composed of a group of scholars from Canada, the United States, and Israel.I Our brief is to study the determinants of long term economic growth. Although our primary focus is on advanced industrial countries such as my own, some of us have come to the conclusion that there is more common ground between developed and developing countries than we might have first thought. I am, however, no expert on development economics so I must let you decide how much of what I say is applicable to economies such as your own. Today, I will discuss some of the grand themes that have arisen in my studies with our group. In the short time available, I can only allude to how these themes are rooted in our more detailed studies. In doing this, I must hasten to add that I speak for myself alone; our group has no corporate view other than the sum of our individual, and very individualistic, views.

A modern method of treating initial caries for children using the infltration method

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-8
Author(s):  
A. U. Zamurayeva ◽  
Е. T. Supiyeva ◽  
B Sh. Orynbayeva
Keyword(s):  
Pathogenic Bacteria ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Modern Method ◽  
Modern Technology ◽  
White Spot ◽  
Tooth Decay ◽  
Low Viscosity ◽  
Initial Caries ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Infiltration Method

Relevance. The modern method of infiltration provides an opportunity to stop the spread of pathogenic bacteria and the development of caries at the white spot stage, replacing the destroyed enamel cells with special polymers having low viscosity and high penetrating ability. The stabilization of the process is achieved in a short time with the maximum safety of their tissues. Purpose. Treatment of initial tooth decay in children by infiltration, assessment of the effectiveness and advantages of modern technology. Materials and methods. Clinical examination was carried out according to generally accepted methods. Additionally, a laser diagnostic method was used using the KaVo DIAGNOdent device (Germany). The LLP Dentistry Center «Zhaik Dent» and the LLP «Concept» used the Icon system for the treatment of initial caries and after orthodontic treatment for 25 children with 54 teeth. Results. At the end of tooth treatment with the Icon infiltration method, parents and the child were given recommendations: from the next day, brush your teeth 2 times a day, rinse your mouth regularly after eating, do not drink drinks, products with coloring substances. To monitor the result of treatment, the child was prescribed for reexamination after 7-10 days, after one month, in the following periods – once a year.After working with the material of the Icon system, the authors noted the pronounced effects of the treatment of initial caries by the method of infiltration.Conclusions. 1. The method of infiltration is a modern and promising technology for the treatment of dental caries at an early stage without losing healthy tissues. 2. The Icon infiltration method makes it possible to stop the spread of pathogenic bacteria and develop tooth decay at the white spot stage, replacing the destroyed enamel cells with special polymers having low viscosity and high penetrating ability. 3. The stabilization of the carious process is achieved in a short time with the maximum preservation of the tooth's tissues. 

Bossa Mundo

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
K.E. Goldschmitt
Keyword(s):  
Local Governments ◽  
Film Music ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Political ◽  
National Brand ◽  
Brazilian Music ◽  
Media Environment ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Media ◽  
Rich Countries

Bossa Mundo chronicles how Brazilian music has been central to Brazil’s national brand in the United States and the United Kingdom since the late 1950s. Scholarly texts on Brazilian popular music generally focus on questions of music and national identity, and when they discuss the music’s international popularity, they keep the artists, recordings, and live performances as the focus, ignoring the process of transnational mediation. This book fills a major gap in Brazilian music studies by analyzing the consequences of moments when Brazilian music was popular in Anglophone markets, with a focus on the media industries. With subject matter as varied as jazz, film music, dance fads, DJ/remix culture, and new models of musical distribution, the book demonstrates how the mediation of Brazilian music in an increasingly crowded transnational marketplace has had lasting consequences for the creative output celebrated by Brazil as part of its national brand. Through a discussion of the political meaning of mass-mediated music in chronologically organized chapters, the book shifts the scholarly focus on the music’s transnational popularity from the scholarly framework of representing Otherness to broader considerations of a media environment where listeners and intermediaries often have differing priorities. The book provides a new model for studying music from culturally rich countries in the Global South where local governments often leverage stereotypes in their national branding project.

scholarly journals Investigation of an EHV-1 Outbreak in the United States Caused by a New H752 Genotype

Pathogens ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 747
Author(s):  
Nicola Pusterla ◽  
Samantha Barnum ◽  
Julia Miller ◽  
Sarah Varnell ◽  
Barbara Dallap-Schaer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Clinical Signs ◽  
Amino Acid Position ◽  
High Viral Load ◽  
The United States ◽  
Neurological Deficits ◽  
Diagnostic Challenge ◽  
Genotype I ◽  
Flunixin Meglumine ◽  
Nasal Secretions

Here we report on an EHV-1 outbreak investigation caused by a novel genotype H752 (histidine in amino acid position 752 of the ORF 30 gene). The outbreak involved 31 performance horses. Horses were monitored over a period of 35 days for clinical signs, therapeutic outcome and qPCR results of EHV-1 in blood and nasal secretions. The morbidity of the EHV-1 outbreak was 84% with 26 clinically infected horses displaying fever and less frequently anorexia and distal limb edema. Four horses showed mild transient neurological deficits. Clinically diseased horses experienced high viral load of EHV-1 in blood and/or nasal secretions via qPCR, while subclinically infected horses had detectable EHV-1 mainly in nasal secretions. The majority of infected horses showed a rise in antibody titers to EHV-1 during the outbreak. All 31 horses were treated with valacyclovir, while clinically infected horses further received flunixin meglumine and sodium heparin. This investigation highlights various relevant aspects of an EHV-1 outbreak caused by a new H752 genotype: (i) importance of early detection of EHV-1 infection; (ii) diagnostic challenge to assess H752 genotype; (iii) apparent benefit of valacyclovir use in the early stage of the outbreak; and (iv) weekly testing of blood and nasal secretions by qPCR in order to monitor individual infection status and lift quarantine.

scholarly journals Learning health systems in primary care: a systematic scoping review

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Danielle M. Nash ◽  
Zohra Bhimani ◽  
Jennifer Rayner ◽  
Merrick Zwarenstein
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Quality Improvement ◽  
Health Systems ◽  
Scoping Review ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Point Of Care ◽  
The United States ◽  
Stage Of Development ◽  
Integrated Health ◽  
Google Search

Abstract Background Learning health systems have been gaining traction over the past decade. The purpose of this study was to understand the spread of learning health systems in primary care, including where they have been implemented, how they are operating, and potential challenges and solutions. Methods We completed a scoping review by systematically searching OVID Medline®, Embase®, IEEE Xplore®, and reviewing specific journals from 2007 to 2020. We also completed a Google search to identify gray literature. Results We reviewed 1924 articles through our database search and 51 articles from other sources, from which we identified 21 unique learning health systems based on 62 data sources. Only one of these learning health systems was implemented exclusively in a primary care setting, where all others were integrated health systems or networks that also included other care settings. Eighteen of the 21 were in the United States. Examples of how these learning health systems were being used included real-time clinical surveillance, quality improvement initiatives, pragmatic trials at the point of care, and decision support. Many challenges and potential solutions were identified regarding data, sustainability, promoting a learning culture, prioritization processes, involvement of community, and balancing quality improvement versus research. Conclusions We identified 21 learning health systems, which all appear at an early stage of development, and only one was primary care only. We summarized and provided examples of integrated health systems and data networks that can be considered early models in the growing global movement to advance learning health systems in primary care.

scholarly journals Despite vaccination, China needs non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 in 2021

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Yang ◽  
Valentina Marziano ◽  
Xiaowei Deng ◽  
Giorgio Guzzetta ◽  
Juanjuan Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Synergetic Effect ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Natural Immunity ◽  
Epidemic Threshold ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Large Populations ◽  
One Year ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractCOVID-19 vaccination is being conducted in over 200 countries and regions to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission and return to a pre-pandemic lifestyle. However, understanding when non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can be lifted as immunity builds up remains a key question for policy makers. To address this, we built a data-driven model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for China. We estimated that, to prevent the escalation of local outbreaks to widespread epidemics, stringent NPIs need to remain in place at least one year after the start of vaccination. Should NPIs alone be capable of keeping the reproduction number (Rt) around 1.3, the synergetic effect of NPIs and vaccination could reduce the COVID-19 burden by up to 99% and bring Rt below the epidemic threshold in about 9 months. Maintaining strict NPIs throughout 2021 is of paramount importance to reduce COVID-19 burden while vaccines are distributed to the population, especially in large populations with little natural immunity.

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