scholarly journals Estimating the parameters of SIR model of COVID-19 cases in India during lock down periods

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
DILIP KUMAR BAGAL ◽  
ARATI RATH ◽  
Abhishek Barua ◽  
Dulu Patnaik
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
The World ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Day By Day ◽  
Modelling Approach

From the pandemic scenario of COVID-19 disease cases in all over the world, the outbreak prediction becomes very complex for the emerging scientifically research. Several epidemiological mathematical models of spread are increasing day by day to forecast correctly. Here, the classical SIR modelling approach is carried out to study the different parameters of this model in case of India county. This type of approach analyzed by considering different governmental lock down measures in India. There are some assumptions were taken into account for fitting the model in Python simulation in each lock down scenario. The predicted parameters of SIR model showed some improvement in each case of lock down in India. The outcome results showed the extreme interventions should be taken to tackle this type of pandemic situation in near future.

scholarly journals Predicting COVID-19 Confirmed Cases using ARIMA Models in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ambreen Chaudhry ◽  
Aamer Ikram ◽  
Muazam Abbas ◽  
Mumtaz Ali Khan ◽  
Tayyab Rathore ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Health Professionals ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Public Health Professionals ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Behavior ◽  
Near Future

<p>· COVID-19 pandemic has emerged and spread rapidly across the world </p> <p>· Novel behavior of coronavirus has been seen in Pakistan</p> <p>· Number of COVID-19 cases has been increasing despite many control and preventive measures taken by government of Pakistan</p> <p>· Mathematical models help public health professionals estimate the size of epidemic in near future </p>

scholarly journals Predicting COVID-19 Confirmed Cases using ARIMA Models in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ambreen Chaudhry ◽  
Aamer Ikram ◽  
Muazam Abbas ◽  
Mumtaz Ali Khan ◽  
Tayyab Rathore ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Health Professionals ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Public Health Professionals ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Behavior ◽  
Near Future

<p>· COVID-19 pandemic has emerged and spread rapidly across the world </p> <p>· Novel behavior of coronavirus has been seen in Pakistan</p> <p>· Number of COVID-19 cases has been increasing despite many control and preventive measures taken by government of Pakistan</p> <p>· Mathematical models help public health professionals estimate the size of epidemic in near future </p>

scholarly journals Near-future Options of Electricity Generation for Sustainable Development: Trends and Prospects

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
FAZLUR RASHID ◽  
Mohammad U. H. Joardder
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
High Demand ◽  
Potential Source ◽  
Implementation Techniques ◽  
The World ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Day By Day

Electricity is an important part of our daily life and uses for different purposes. However, electricity generation sources are decreasing day by day and electricity mainly generates from renewable and conventional sources of energy. Proper management to create new conventional energy sources is challenging all over the world. Lack of conventional sources of energy, high demand for energy, less available land, and low budget for energy are some of the important factors that cause poor energy management all over the world. In this paper, different potential less attributed sources of energy are analyzed along with their implementation techniques to mitigate high electricity demand in near-future. This review shows that along with renewable and conventional sources of energy, less attended energy sources would be a potential source that can generate electricity. This review also presents that no improved techniques are needed to implement less attended sources of energy and can be implemented with sustainable techniques. This study also proposes implementation techniques of uncommon sources of energy for electricity generation with related challenges that could emerge during the implementation of these sources of energy. In this study, the electricity generation rate and their corresponding applications are also depicted. Proper steps and execution of less attended sources of energy would mitigate high energy demand all over the world and offers a cleaner environment for livelihood.

scholarly journals Waves of COVID-19 pandemic. Detection and SIR simulations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Nesteruk
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Sharp Increase ◽  
Statistical Approach ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
The World

Background. Unfortunately, the COVID-19 pandemic is still far from stabilizing. Of particular concern is the sharp increase in the number of diseases in June-July 2020. The causes and consequences of this sharp increase in the number of cases are still waiting for their researchers, but there is already an urgent need to assess the possible duration of the pandemic, the expected number of patients and deaths. The resumption of international passenger traffic needs the information for deciding which countries' citizens are welcome guests. Correct simulation of the infectious disease dynamics needs complicated mathematical models and many efforts for unknown parameters identification. Constant changes in the pandemic conditions (in particular, the peculiarities of quarantine and its violation, situations with testing and isolation of patients) cause various epidemic waves, lead to changes in the parameter values of the mathematical models. Objective. In this article, pandemic waves in Ukraine and in the world will be detected, calculated and discussed. The estimations for hidden periods, epidemic durations and final numbers of cases will be presented. The probabilities of meeting a person spreading the infection and reproduction numbers will be calculated for different countries and regions. Methods. We propose a simple method for the epidemic waves detection based on the differentiation of the smoothed number of cases. We use the known SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) model for the dynamics of the epidemic waves. The known exact solution of the SIR differential equations and statistical approach were modified and used. Results. The optimal values of the SIR model parameters were identified for four waves of pandemic dynamics in Ukraine and five waves in the world. The number of cases and the number of patients spreading the infection versus time were calculated. In particular, the pandemic probably began in August 2019. If current trends continue, the end of the pandemic should be expected no earlier than in March 2021 both in Ukraine and in the world, the global number of cases will exceed 20 million. The probabilities of meeting a person spreading the infection and reproduction numbers were calculated for different countries and regions. Conclusions. The SIR model and statistical approach to the parameter identification are helpful to make some reliable estimations of the epidemic waves. The number of persons spreading the infection versus time was calculated during all the epidemic waves. The obtained information will be useful to regulate the quarantine activities, to predict the medical and economic consequences of the pandemic and to decide which countries' citizens are welcome guests.

1989 göçü sonrası Bulgaristan göçmenlerinin yemek kültüründeki değişim

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 227-245
Author(s):  
Cahit Kahraman ◽  
İlhan Güneş ◽  
Nanae Kahraman
Keyword(s):  
Eating Habits ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Food Culture ◽  
Rapid Progress ◽  
Canned Food ◽  
Product Range ◽  
The World ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Day By Day ◽  
Made In

1989 göçü öncesi, dünyada eşzamanlı olarak gittikçe gelişen ve zenginleşen mutfak kültürü, Bulgaristan Türklerini de etkilemiştir. Pazardaki çeşitlilik arttıkça, yemek alışkanlıkları da değişime uğramıştır. Büyük göçten sadece 30-40 sene evvel kısıtlı imkânlar ile sınırlı sayıda yemek çeşidi üretilirken, alım gücünün artmasıyla yemek kültüründe de hızlı gelişmeler olmuştur. Artan ürün çeşitliliği yemeklere de yansımış, farklı lezzetler mutfaklara girmiştir. Göçmen yemekleri denilince hamur işleri, börek ve pideler akla gelir. Ayrıca, göçmenlerin çok zengin turşu, komposto ve konserve kültürüne sahip oldukları da bilinir. Bu çalışma, 1989 öncesi Bulgaristan’ın farklı bölgelerinde yaşayan Türklerin yemek alışkanlıklarına ışık tutmakla birlikte, göç sonrasında göçmen mutfak kültüründe bir değişiklik oluşup oluşmadığını konu almaktadır. Bu amaçla, 1989 yılında Türkiye’ye göç etmiş 50 kişiye 8 sorudan oluşan anket düzenlenmiştir. Bu verilerden yola çıkarak oluşan bulgular derlenmiş ve yeni tespitler yapılmıştır. Ayrıca, Türkiye’nin farklı bölgelerine yerleşen göçmenler, kendi göçmen pazarlarını kurmuşlardır. Bulgaristan’dan getirilen ürünlerin bu pazarlarda satılması böyle bir arz talebin hala devam ettiğine işaret etmektedir.ABSTRACT IN ENGLISHThe Diversity in Cuisine Culture of the Immigrants from Bulgaria After 1989 MigrationThe Cuisine culture that has been developing and getting rich day by day contemporaneously in the world before 1989 migration has also had an impact on Bulgarian Turks. By the increase in diversity in the market, eating habits have changed. While producing a limited number of food types with limited opportunities just some 30 or 40 years before the ‘Big Migration’, there has been a rapid progress in food culture by the help of the increase in purchase power. Enhancing product range has been reflected in food, and different tastes have entered the cuisines. When we say immigrant, the first things that come to our mind are pastry, flan and pitta bread. Moreover, it is also known that immigrants have a very rich cuisine culture of pickle, stewed fruit, and canned food. This study aims both to disclose the eating habits of Turks living in different regions of Bulgaria before 1989 and to determine whether there has been a difference in immigrant cuisine culture before and after the migration. For this purpose, a questionnaire consisting of 8 questions has been administered to 50 people who migrated to Turkey in 1989. The results gathered from these data have been compiled and new determinations have been made. In addition, immigrants that settled in different regions of Turkey have set their own immigrant markets. The fact that the products brought from Bulgaria are being sold in these markets shows that this kind of supply and demand still continues.

A Compact Embodiment of Pluralities and Denial of Origins: Atwood’s The Year of The Flood

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 141
Author(s):  
Rana Sağıroğlu
Keyword(s):  
Science Fiction ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Social Order ◽  
Margaret Atwood ◽  
Rapid Change ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The World ◽  
Narrative Techniques ◽  
Why Questions ◽  
Near Future

Margaret Atwood, one of the most spectacular authors of postmodern movement, achieved to unite debatable and in demand critical points of 21st century such as science fiction, postmodernism and ecocriticism in the novel The Year of The Flood written in 2009. The novel could be regarded as an ecocritical manifesto and a dystopic mirror against today’s degenerated world, tending to a superficial base to keep the already order in use, by moving away from the fundamental solution of all humanity: nature. Although Atwood does not want her works to be called science fiction, it is obvious that science fiction plays an introductory role and gives the novel a ground explaining all ‘why’ questions of the novel. However, Atwood is not unjust while claiming that her works are not science fiction because of the inevitable rapid change of 21st century world becoming addicted to technology, especially Internet. It is easily observed by the reader that what she fictionalises throughout the novel is quite close to possibility, and the world may witness in the near future what she creates in the novel as science fiction. Additionally, postmodernism serves to the novel as the answerer of ‘how’ questions: How the world embraces pluralities, how heterogeneous social order is needed, and how impossible to run the world by dichotomies of patriarchal social order anymore. And lastly, ecocriticism gives the answers of ‘why’ questions of the novel: Why humanity is in chaos, why humanity has organized the world according to its own needs as if there were no living creatures apart from humanity. Therefore, The Year of The Flood meets the reader as a compact embodiment of science fiction, postmodernism and ecocriticism not only with its theme, but also with its narrative techniques.

Awareness on Sustainability Perspective among Consumers’ of Tea

2019 ◽  
Vol 118 (7) ◽  
pp. 111-116
Author(s):  
Dr. M. Ayisha Millath ◽  
Dr. K. Malik Ali
Keyword(s):  
Sample Size ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Health Benefits ◽  
High Price ◽  
Educational Qualification ◽  
Lack Of Information ◽  
The World ◽  
Correlation Result ◽  
Day By Day

Tea is an imperative beverage elsewhere in the world.  The need and demand for tea are increasing day by day.  Tea Association of USA expects continued growth in tea sales due to awareness on its health benefits. There are more than 3000 kinds of tea varieties are there but only four varieties are widely used. The authors investigated the opinion on sustainability perspectives and problems faced by them while they intend to buy. Willing Participants are included in survey with the sample size of 237.  The correlation result revealed that there is a positive relationship between educational qualification and sustainability perspectives of tea products among consumers. .  It is also found that lack of information and high price were the major problems faced by tea consumers while intend to buy sustainable tea. So the tea manufacturers and processors must throw light on these issues to improve its preference among consumers.

The Supply-Demand Research of Cultural and Tourism Industries Policies in China with the Impact of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-24
Author(s):  
Dr. Jianfei Yang
Keyword(s):  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Cultural Industries ◽  
Real Situation ◽  
The Real ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Post Period

COVID-19 has made a bad influence on economic and society including cultural and tourism industry in China，2020.The industry has received a huge loss in the first quarter of the year and the situation is getting worse in the near future. It is believed that there will be a long impact for the country even the world. In order to recover the industry, Chinese government has published series of policies to support the enterprises and clusters to reduce the bad influence of COVID-19. This paper mainly uses filed survey and documentary research to map the real situation of the industry. It tries to find the policy demand of the industries and then analyze the policies published by government to conquer COVID-19. Meanwhile it will focus on whether the supply meet the demand and give suggestions on how to promote the policy efficiency in the post period of COVID-19 in China. Keywords: Evaluation; Cultural Industries; Policy; Park; Pandemic

The chronicle of COVID-19: possible strategies to curb the pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajesh Kumar ◽  
Seetha Harilal ◽  
Abdullah G. Al-Sehemi ◽  
Githa Elizabeth Mathew ◽  
Simone Carradori ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Research And Development ◽  
Vaccine Development ◽  
Therapeutic Strategies ◽  
Antiviral Drugs ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Virus ◽  
Day By Day

: COVID-19, an epidemic that emerged in Wuhan, has become a pandemic affecting worldwide and is in a rapidly evolving condition. Day by day, the confirmed cases and deaths are increasing many folds. SARS-CoV-2 is a novel virus; therefore, limited data are available to curb the disease. Epidemiological approaches, isolation, quarantine, social distancing, lockdown, and curfew are being employed to halt the spread of the disease. Individual and joint efforts all over the world are producing a wealth of data and information which are expected to produce therapeutic strategies against COVID-19. Current research focuses on the utilization of antiviral drugs, repurposing strategies, vaccine development as well as basic to advanced research about the organism and the infection. The review focuses on the life cycle, targets, and possible therapeutic strategies, which can lead to further research and development of COVID-19 therapy.

YOGAINTOCLASSROOM PRACTICES:NEED OF THEHOUR

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (36) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jasmeet Bedi
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Mental Stress ◽  
Growing Up ◽  
Educational Organization ◽  
Psychological Performance ◽  
The World ◽  
Teachers And Students ◽  
Classroom Studies ◽  
Day By Day

We are living in the world of 21st century which is known as the world of ‘Mental Stress’ in these circumstances, knowledge amplifies day by day. There is a knowledge explosion in the world, hence each and every person tries to get this knowledge by new andmost recent mediasand they also use it. In this direction there is a qualitative growing up in the person for in receipt of knowledge and its use by appreciative. In the same way, we notice the qualitative addition in the educational organization, teachers and students, which are going to get knowledge. In these circumstances teachers and students feel a perplexity. Learner or student of today is not only physically unhealthy but also mentally or emotionally. So it becomes duty or responsibility of a teacher to incorporate such practices in his classroom so that stress, tension, anxiety, frustration etc. of their students reduces which ultimately affect upon their academic as well as socio-psychological performance. The present paper throws light on benefits of yoga into classroom, studies conducted on the same, challenges before a teacher.

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