scholarly journals Modelling the Occurrence of the Novel Pandemic COVID-19 Outbreak– A Box and Jenkins Approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ajadi Nurudeen ◽  
Ogunsola Isqeel Adesegun ◽  
Damisa Adams Saddam
Keyword(s):  
Virus Disease ◽  
Recent Time ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Kpss Test ◽  
Trend Model ◽  
Respiratory Problem ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
Log Likelihood ◽  
The Future ◽  
Time Plot

AbstractThe corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a novel pandemic disease that spreads very fast and causes severe respiratory problem to its carrier and thereby results to death in some cases. In this research, we studied the trend, model Nigeria daily COVID-19 cases and forecast for the future occurrences in the country at large. We adopt the Box and Jenkins approach. The time plot showed that the cases of COVID-19 rises rapidly in recent time. KPSS test confirms the non-stationarity of the process (p < 0.05) before differencing. The test also confirmed the stationarity of the process (p > 0.05) after differencing. Various ARIMA (p,d,q) were examined with their respective AICs and Log-likelihood. ARIMA (1, 2, 1) was selected as the best model due to its least AIC (559.74) and highest log likelihood (−276.87). Both Shapiro-Wilk test and Box test performed confirm the fitness of the model (p > 0.05) for the series. Forecast for 30 days was then made for COVID-19 cases in Nigeria. Conclusively, the model obtained in this research can be used to model, monitor and forecast the daily occurrence of COVID-19 cases in Nigeria.

Clinical cases of eculizumab use as a part of complex therapy in patients with severe COVID-19.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Р.А. Майер ◽  
Б.А. Бакиров ◽  
А.А. Набиева ◽  
Д.А. Кудлай
Keyword(s):  
Virus Disease ◽  
Membrane Attack Complex ◽  
Lung Ventilation ◽  
Blood Analysis ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Reactive Protein ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
Complex Therapy ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Clinical Cases

Введение. В последние 2 года серьезной проблемой для всего мирового сообщества стало распространение новой коронавирусной (CoV) инфекции COVID-19 (COrona VIrus Disease-2019). Ввиду сложившихся событий в лечении COVID-19 активно стали применяться новые молекулы и уже зарегистрированные лекарственные препараты, доказавшие свою эффективность при других заболеваниях. Цель исследования: оценить эффективность применения препарата экулизумаб у пациентов с тяжелой формой течения COVID-19. Материалы и методы. Проанализированы 3 клинических случая применения препарата экулизумаб в составе комплексной терапии у пациентов с тяжелой формой течения COVID-19. Для оценки эффективности лечения проводился мониторинг основных клинико-лабораторных показателей, а также показателей, характеризующих воспалительный процесс при коронавирусной инфекции: общий анализ крови, биохимический анализ крови, проанализированы уровни таких показателей как ферритин, С-реактивный белок, интерлейкин-6, лактатдегидрогеназа и мембраноатакующий комплекс. Результаты. На фоне проводимой терапии выявлено снижение концентрации основных маркеров воспаления относительно исходных значений. Заключение. Комплексная терапия, включающая экулизумаб, облегчает течение заболевания, позволяет сократить длительность пребывания пациентов в отделении реанимации и интенсивной терапии, укорачивает срок их пребывания на искусственной вентиляции легких, тем самым снижая процент летальности. Background. In the past two years, the incidence of the novel coronavirus (CoV) infection COVID-19 (COrona Virus Disease-2019) has been a serious problem for the global community. Considering these circumstances, new molecules and already registered drugs that have proven their effectiveness in other diseases, began to be actively used in COVID-19 treatment. Objectives: to assess the effi cacy of eculizumab in patients with severe COVID-19. Patients/Methods. Three clinical cases of eculizumab use as a part of complex therapy in patients with severe COVID-19 have been analyzed. To assess the treatment efficacy, the main clinical and laboratory parameters and indicators of inflammatory process in coronavirus infection were monitored (clinical blood analysis, biochemical blood test, levels of ferritin, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, lactate dehydrogenase and membrane attack complex). Results. Under the therapy we found the reduction of concentration of the main inflammation markers relative to the initial values. Conclusions. Complex therapy with eculizumab facilitates the course of the disease, reduces the stay duration of patients in the intensive care unit, shortens the period of artificial lung ventilation, thereby reducing the mortality rate.

scholarly journals Response to the Novel Corona Virus (COVID-19) Pandemic Across Africa: Successes, Challenges, and Implications for the Future

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olayinka O. Ogunleye ◽  
Debashis Basu ◽  
Debjani Mueller ◽  
Jacqueline Sneddon ◽  
R. Andrew Seaton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The Novel ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
The Future

scholarly journals A Review on Automatic Covid-19 Lung Infection Detection from Different Imaging Techniques

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (VII) ◽  
pp. 3850-3856
Author(s):  
Sangeeta Singh
Keyword(s):  
World Health Organization ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Imaging Techniques ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
High Level ◽  
Precision Rate

Corona Virus Disease-2019 commonly known as COVID-19 which has been defined by the Novel Corona Virus. It is a family of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) and was first detected during respiratory outbreak. It was first reported to the World Health Organization on December 31, 2019. On January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 eruption a global health emergency. As of 27-May-2021 169,095,283 confirmed cases have been reported in the world and 2, 73, 67, 935 cases in India. It is required to identify the infection with high precision rate but there are lots of deficiency in the diagnosing system that may resulted false alarm rate. Initially it could be detected through throat saliva but now it can also be identified thought the impairment in lungs from computerized tomographical imaging technique. This paper reviewed various researches over COVID-19 diagnosis approach as well as the syndrome in respiratory organs. There are so many imaging techniques through which lungs impairments can be detected that may diagnose COVID-19 with high level of accuracy. CT scan image is the best alternative for diagnosing COVID-19.

scholarly journals COVID-19: The Pandemic Situation in the Context of India

2021 ◽  
pp. 456-463
Author(s):  
Daksh Hardaswani
Keyword(s):  
Virus Disease ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Physical And Mental Health ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Animal Virus ◽  
Therapeutic Drugs ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
Hand Wash ◽  
The World ◽  
Financial Impacts

The novel corona virus disease (COVID-19) is a pandemic due to the global health crisis it has created in the world and greatest challenges that it has introduced in this 21ST century. COVID-19 is the the 5th pandemic which was first reported in Wuhan, China and gradually spread into the other parts of the world. This virus is a spillover of an animal virus and then also adapted the ability of transferring human to human. The virus is highly contagious due to rapid spread and constantly evolves in the human population.  COVID-19 pandemic is a lot more than just a health emergency, but it is also socio-economic because people are losing jobs and income. The COVID-19 disease affects physical and mental health due to isolation. Moreover, more and more countries are affecting the cases of COVID-19 which are rising very rapidly day by day. Therefore, every country needs to several actions which accelerates their safety health, balance between the protection of health, prevent economic and social disruption due to this pandemic. In the spirit of the solidarity, we all need to be contributing our self to protect this situation. However, every country is equally responsible for determining the measures to prevent or decrease the viral transmission. Government authorizes also trying to act for reduce disease’s trajectory and they focus on develop the vaccination and therapeutic drugs.  Aim: To find causes, symptoms, awareness, Prevention, and treatment of COVID-19. Conclusion: The world is going by the critical situation and that is COVID-19 pandemic which is originated due to corona virus. Shortness of breath, fever and dry cough are most common symptoms of the novel corona virus. COVID-19 is highly contagious, so we must keep safe distance from other people and wear a mast hand wash our hands frequently. As it were together can we overcome the interwoven wellbeing and social and financial impacts of the widespread and anticipate its acceleration into an extended compassionate and nourishment security catastrophe, with the potential misfortune of as of now accomplished advancement picks up. 

scholarly journals The First Case of Reactive Arthritis Associated with SARS-CoV-2-Infection in A 4-Year Old Child

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie Gabriele Werner ◽  
Hans-Eckhard Langer
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Reactive Arthritis ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Case Presentation ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
First Case ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Right

Abstract Background: The novel coronavirus SARS‐CoV‐2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) and its associated disease COVID‐19 (Corona Virus Disease 19) has become a worldwide pandemic since its first cases in December 2019 in Wuhan Province in China. In Germany the pandemic started in February 2020.Case presentation: A 4 year old boy was presented and suffered from pain in the right hip. Arthrosonography demonstrated a significant effusion in the involved joint. The extended history revealed a slight but long lasting cold before. Serological findings were inconspicuous except for positive ELISA (Enzyme-linked Immuno Sorbent Assay) - test for SARS-CoV-2. Conclusion: In conclusion we believe that we can report the first case of reactive arthritis associated with SARS-CoV-2 in children.

ANALYSIS OF THE MULTIDIMENSIONAL IMPACTS OF CORONA VIRUS DISEASE-2019 (COVID-19) PANDEMIC

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 96-105
Author(s):  
Imran ◽  
Saima Sarir ◽  
Mamoon Khan Khattak ◽  
Intikhab Alam ◽  
Seema Zubair
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Research ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
First Century ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Travel And Tourism ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
Depth Interview ◽  
Depth Interviews

Purpose of the study: The twenty-first century has witnessed numerous impacts of the novel Corona Virus Disease-2019 (Covid-19) pandemic in different walks of life across the globe. The present study was designed to get a societal response regarding the multifaceted impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on the lives of the populace of the study locale. Methodology: The researchers selected a qualitative research approach for gaining in-depth insights on the issue at hand, wherein the data was collected from the potential participants through purposive sampling. The In-depth Interviews were conducted in district Swat which is one of the most affected districts from Covid-19. The In-depth Interview was used as a research instrument. The data was analyzed through thematic analysis. Main Findings: The study findings revealed that human lives are severely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. The routine life cycle was badly affected, and people were confined to their houses. Like other parts of the world, different sectors like education, health, rituals, social interaction, travel, and tourism are desperately affected. Resultantly, it drastically raised the socio-cultural and economic (especially unemployment) unrest situation in the region. Apart from these consequences, due to the Pandemic scenario, various socio-cultural rituals, events, and activities were at a halt due to the imposition of social distancing measures. Applications of this study: The findings can be utilized/generalized in the normal course of life keeping in view the multidimensional impacts of the Covid-19 in the region. This study could be utilized for future research studies on the same issue. Novelty/Originality of this study: Besides, the study has immense significance, such studies are novel in the region with such a distinct perspective that covers various aspects of the impacts of Covid-19 using a qualitative research approach.  

scholarly journals Infodemic: How an Epidemic of Misinformation Could Lead to a High Number of the Novel Corona Virus Disease Cases in Uganda

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Betty K. Nannyonga ◽  
Rhoda K. Wanyenze ◽  
Pontiano Kaleebu ◽  
John M. Ssenkusu ◽  
Freddie Sengooba ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Risk Communication ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Corona Virus

Misinformation during the COVID-19 outbreak has shaped our perception of the disease. Some people thinkthe disease is a bioweapon while others are convinced that it is a hoax. Heightened anxiety often producesfearful rumors, some of which are absurd while others seem plausible and are laced with some truths. But, how does misinformation affect disease spread? In this paper, we construct a mathematical model parameterized by Ugandan data, to study the effect of misinformation on community COVID-19 spread. The analysis shows that misinformation leads to high number of COVID-19 cases in a community, and the effect is highest in the rumour initiators and spreaders. This analysis underscores the importance of addressing misinformation in COVID risk communication.

scholarly journals Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on Educational Sector in Kerala

2021 ◽  
pp. 84-88
Author(s):  
Siji P S ◽  
Dr. Ranjini R. Varma
Keyword(s):  
Special Reference ◽  
Rare Disease ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Health Finance ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
The Impact

The study emphasis on the impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on educational sector in Kerala. The world has been experiencing a rare disaster of Covid-19 pandemic (corona virus disease) since 2019. Covid -19 pandemic has spread all over the world. Everybody are confused and so tensed and also excited about the pandemic because it is a rare disease and the medicine for the same is not yet innovated. Even scientists are not able to predict the future spread of the disease, so the only thing what the countries can do is to stop spreading the virus in the country. For that most of the countries in the world have been implementing quarantines, lockdowns and social distancing practices to contain the pandemic. Covid -19 pandemic has impacted every sector in the economy such as education, tourism, business, health, finance etc. In this context an attempt is made to examine the impact of covid-19 on Kerala’s economy. Here we examine the impact of Covid-19 pandemic on educational sector in Kerala and through this study the researcher tries to explain the positive as well as negative impacts of Covid -19 pandemic on educational sector in Kerala with special reference to Thrissur district.

scholarly journals How prepared were we? A study to assess the knowledge, attitude and practice of dental surgeons regarding the Covid 19 pandemic in district Dehradun

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-130
Author(s):  
Yogeshwari ◽  
Anubha Agarwal ◽  
Himanshu Aeran
Keyword(s):  
Virus Disease ◽  
Good Practice ◽  
World Health ◽  
Good Knowledge ◽  
Family Welfare ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
Online Questionnaire ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
Knowledge And Practice

The novel corona virus disease 2019 has been declared a global public health emergency & is affecting people across the globe. Dental Surgeons are at an invariably high risk of contracting COVID 19. Since all dentists are slowly resuming their full practice they shall be fully prepared. Aim of the study is to assess the knowledge, attitude & practise of Dental Surgeons regarding the novel Corona Virus Disease 2019 in District, Dehradun. An online Questionnaire was circulated among dental surgeons in District, Dehradun. The Questionnaire consisted of 5 sections: 1. Consent, 2. Epidemiological Data, 3. Knowledge Based Questions (11 Questions), 4. Attitude Based Questions (8 Questions), 5. Practice Based Questions (11 Questions). 107 responses were collected in total. Most dental surgeons had a degree of MDS (Masters of Dental Science): 60.7%. Good knowledge and practice scores were observed among 92.7% and 79.5% of the dental surgeons. Significant association of good knowledge scores with qualifications (p = 0.04) and years of practice (p = 0.02) was found; while good practice scores were associated with qualifications only (p = 0.03). Dental surgeons in district Dehradun were found to have good knowledge and practice scores, which is important to skirmish COVID-19. They are hence advised to follow the Center of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) World Health Organization (WHO), Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (MoHFW) guidelines in their clinics and should sensitize their staff as well. So that they themselves, their staff and patients all remain safe.

scholarly journals COVID-19: An Epidemiological Puzzle

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Subrata Baidya ◽  
Debosmita Paul ◽  
Purvita Chowdhury
Keyword(s):  
Short Communication ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
World Health Organisation ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Unknown Aetiology ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
Agent Interaction ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
Associated Variables

A cluster of pneumonia cases of unknown aetiology was reported from Wuhan, Hubei province of China on 31st December, 2019. The World Health Organisation (WHO) declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on 30th January, 2020. Thereafter, it has spread through China and reached the level of a pandemic expanding to 210 countries with 77.9M confirmed cases and 1.71M deaths as per Corona virus Disease (COVID-19) situation report issued by WHO based on data received upto 23rdDecember, 2020. A number of questions remain unanswered regarding pathogen-associated variables for amplification dynamics, host environment and agent interaction. This short communication makes an effort to compile the information gathered from published articles of renowned journals and newsletters to explore the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19. Hereby in this article, authors have tried to assemble the epidemiological lacunae created by the novel characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Corona Virus-2) which presently pose a rather puzzling transmission dynamics of COVID-19 that still remain unanswered.

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