scholarly journals Estimating COVID-19 Virus Prevalence from Records of Testing Rate and Test Positivity

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arnout JW Everts
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Virus Prevalence ◽  
Testing Rate ◽  
Community Model ◽  
Unbiased Test ◽  
Prevalence Estimates ◽  
Initial Dataset ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
Epidemic Wave

ABSTRACTIntroductionPCR testing for COVID-19 is not done at random but selectively on suspected cases. This paper presents a method to estimate a “genuine Virus Prevalence” by quantifying and removing the bias related to selective testing.MethodsData used are from nine (9) neighbouring countries in Western Europe that record similar epidemic trends despite differences in Testing Rate. Regression analysis is used to establish a relationship of declining Test Positivity with increased Testing Rate. By extrapolating this trend to an “infinitely complete” Testing Rate, an unbiased Test Positivity or “genuine Virus Prevalence” is computed. Via pairing of “genuine Virus Prevalence” with Excess-Deaths, a “genuine Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) is also derived.ResultsPeak levels of “genuine Virus Prevalence” were around 0.5 to 2% during the 1st epidemic “wave” (week 10 to week 20) and are approaching similar levels in the ongoing 2nd “wave” (week 34 onward). “Genuine Virus Prevalence” estimates are close to reported Seroprevalence in the studied countries with a correlation coefficient of 0.58. “Genuine” IFR is found comparable to closed-community model IFR. Finally, results of community mass-testing in Slovakia are within the estimated range of “genuine Virus Prevalence”.ConclusionsEstimates of “genuine Virus Prevalence” benchmark favourably to other indications of virus prevalence suggesting the estimation method is robust and potentially deployable beyond this initial dataset of countries. “Genuine Virus Prevalence” curves suggest that during the 1st epidemic “wave”, curve flattening and waning happened at very modest levels of infection spread, either naturally or facilitated by government measures.

Using The Fully Modified M Method In Estimating The Effect Of Cultivated Area On Barley Production In Iraq For The Period 1970-2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (66) ◽  
pp. 101-110
Author(s):  
. Azhar Kadhim Jbarah ◽  
Prof Dr. Ahmed Shaker Mohammed
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Moving Average Models ◽  
Error Terms ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Barley Crop

The research is concerned with estimating the effect of the cultivated area of barley crop on the production of that crop by estimating the regression model representing the relationship of these two variables. The results of the tests indicated that the time series of the response variable values is stationary and the series of values of the explanatory variable were nonstationary and that they were integrated of order one ( I(1) ), these tests also indicate that the random error terms are auto correlated and can be modeled according to the mixed autoregressive-moving average models ARMA(p,q), for these results we cannot use the classical estimation method to estimate our regression model, therefore, a fully modified M method was adopted, which is a robust estimation methods, The estimated results indicate a positive significant relation between the production of barley crop and cultivated area.

scholarly journals On the Question of Medieval Artillery in the Muslim Regions of Contemporary Russia

Islamovedenie ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-40
Author(s):  
Nabiev Rustam Fanisovich ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Islamic Culture ◽  
The West ◽  
Muslim Countries ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Relationship Of

The article deals with the problem of the spread of artillery weapons from the East to the West through the territory of the Eurasian steppes. Among the regions important for the devel-opment of firearms were countries with Islamic culture, which are currently part of the Russian Federation and the CIS. They were one of the most important links in the movement of new technologies from the East to Europe. Evidence of the development of artillery in the northern Muslim countries is not only written sources, but also finds of genuine medieval weapons. The author shows that the Muslim peoples of northern Eurasia have contributed to the world process of the development and spread of firearms. The article substantiates the view that in the territory of Russia powder technologies, the newest at that time, began to be used much earlier than in Western Europe. The author also identifies a number of areas of research into the history of powder technologies in the medieval Muslim world, such as sources of information, regions, landscapes, the main ways of spreading technologies, as well as terminology from the standpoint of cultural relationship of languages

scholarly journals Relationship of Whitefly Population Build up with the Spread of TYLCV on Eight Tomato Varieties

1970 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
AHMA Rahman ◽  
AM Akanda ◽  
AKM Ashraful Alam
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Tomato Yellow Leaf ◽  
Growth Stages ◽  
Whitefly Population ◽  
Key Words Prevalence ◽  
Virus Prevalence ◽  
Tomato Field ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
Leaf Curl Virus ◽  
The Relationship

The performance of eight tomato varieties namely BARI-T1 (Manik), BARI-T2 (Ratan), BARI-T4, BARI-T5, BARI-T6 (Apurba), BARI-T7 (Chaity), BARI-T11 and BARI-T12 were evaluated in respect to prevalence and spread of TYLCV (Tomato Yellow Leaf curl Virus) in relation to whitefly population buildup in the field. Data were collected on the three growth stages of the plant namely early (transplanting to first flowering) mid (first flowering to first harvesting) and late (first harvesting to last harvesting). The virus prevalence percentage in eight tomato varieties varied depending on early, mid and late stage of infection as well as tomato varieties. It ranged from 42 to 69%. There was a poor and insignificant quadratic polynomial relationship (y = -0.0059x 2 + 0.2826x – 1.5378 & R2 = 0.0962) between temperature and whitefly population build up in tomato field. The relationship between relative humidity and whitefly population build up in the field was found significant but negatively correlated (y = - 0.0321x 2 +4.5518x – 159.44 (R2 = 0.6769). The increase of whitefly population in the field was positively correlated with the spread of TYLCV in the tomato field (y = - 0.0002x 2 + 0.0297x + 1.0626 & R2 = 0.663). The highest and lowest prevalence of TYLCV was recorded in BARI-T6 and BARI-T11, respectively. In all the varieties, virus prevalence was found higher at mid stage followed by late and early stage of infection. Key words: Prevalence, TYLCV, whitefly.

Global prevalence of traumatic non-fatal limb amputation

2020 ◽  
pp. 030936462097225
Author(s):  
Cody L McDonald ◽  
Sarah Westcott-McCoy ◽  
Marcia R Weaver ◽  
Juanita Haagsma ◽  
Deborah Kartin
Keyword(s):  
North Africa ◽  
Burden Of Disease ◽  
Service Provision ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Global Burden Of Disease ◽  
Limb Amputation ◽  
Global Burden ◽  
Valuable Insight ◽  
Prevalence Estimates ◽  
Insight Into

Background: Reliable information on both global need for prosthetic services and the current prosthetist workforce is limited. Global burden of disease estimates can provide valuable insight into amputation prevalence due to traumatic causes and global prosthetists needed to treat traumatic amputations. Objectives: This study was conducted to quantify and interpret patterns in global distribution and prevalence of traumatic limb amputation by cause, region, and age within the context of prosthetic rehabilitation, prosthetist need, and prosthetist education. Study design: A secondary database descriptive study. Methods: Amputation prevalence and prevalence rate per 100,000 due to trauma were estimated using the 2017 global burden of disease results. Global burden of disease estimation utilizes a Bayesian metaregression and best available data to estimate the prevalence of diseases and injuries, such as amputation. Results: In 2017, 57.7 million people were living with limb amputation due to traumatic causes worldwide. Leading traumatic causes of limb amputation were falls (36.2%), road injuries (15.7%), other transportation injuries (11.2%), and mechanical forces (10.4%). The highest number of prevalent traumatic amputations was in East Asia and South Asia followed by Western Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East, high-income North America and Eastern Europe. Based on these prevalence estimates, approximately 75,850 prosthetists are needed globally to treat people with traumatic amputations. Conclusion: Amputation prevalence estimates and patterns can inform prosthetic service provision, education and planning.

scholarly journals Is Eurozone accumulating a historic lag toward Asia in the COVID-19 context?

2021 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 192-203
Author(s):  
J. Sapir ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Epidemic Wave ◽  
The Eu

The COVID-19 epidemic has shaken the world and affected the global economy. Coming from China, this epidemic has hit different countries in a close succession. Western Europe and the Eurozone were severely hit by the pandemy. The so-called “2nd wave” is creating havoc even in the countries that had quite well managed before – during the 1st wave of Spring 2020. Even with the vaccine, it is quite probable that economic recovery will be postponed to 2022–2023. Would the Eurozone accumulate a historic lag compared to Asia in the pandemy context? Analyses done by the end of September 2020, that is before the 2nd epidemic wave struck Europa, were already showing that the EU and the Eurozone, as some other advanced economies, fared worse in that context. This 2nd wave would quite probably strengthen this lagging.

scholarly journals FORMING THE LOCAL AUXILIARY POLICE AND ENGAGING ITS SUBDIVISIONS IN PUNITIVE OPERATIONS OF NAZI INVADERS ON THE TERRITORY OF ZHYTOMYR REGION IN 1941

2018 ◽  
pp. 219-239
Author(s):  
Іван Васильович Ковальчук
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Main Function ◽  
Dirty Work ◽  
The Public ◽  
Nazi Occupation ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Western Ukraine ◽  
Municipal Police ◽  
Relationship Of

The article considers the process of the Ukrainian local police formation within the structure of the auxiliary Ukrainian administration. It was determined that both Organizations of Ukrainian Nationalists had taken an active part in the process. The members of their march units arrived in Zhytomyr region. During the period of military administration the Nazi occupation authority specified the number of military personnel, the main functions and direct reporting relationship of the Ukrainian auxiliary police. Originally, the given formation was qualified as the public organization subordinated to the local authorities, however, commandant's offices could engage it to perform their tasks. Its aggregate number could not exceed 1% of the population of a specific populated locality. The main function of the auxiliary police was to tackle crime and protect different objects. In its arsenal, the police had the captured Soviet rifles and a set of 5 cartridges for each one. Within a short period of time the whole network of the auxiliary police was established on the territory of Zhytomyr region. It consisted of country commands, district, municipal and regional divisions.Among the governing bodies and municipal police, for example, in Zhytomyr city, there were many of those who came from Western Ukraine and political immigrants from Western Europe who arrived on the territory occupied by Nazi after the beginning of the Soviet-German war. Nevertheless, after some time the occupation authorities at first resorted to a dissolution of the Ukrainian auxiliary police formations, and then it was re-structured and staffed according to new plans and Nazi perspective. In that format the Ukrainian auxiliary police were fully deprived of both Organizations of Ukrainian Nationalists influence, imbedded into the occupation structure and had to carry out the dirty work Nazi could not do because of lack of human resources and means. Since that time Nazi occupation authorities engaged officials from different divisions and departments of the local auxiliary police in their punitive actions against the local population, in particular in a genocide of specific ethnic groups.

scholarly journals A visual-acoustic duet of painting and music in medieval aesthetics

2021 ◽  
Vol 266 ◽  
pp. 05006
Author(s):  
D.V. Gladkova ◽  
D.Yu. Dorofeyev
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Studies ◽  
Middle Ages ◽  
Art History ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Visual Anthropology ◽  
Symbolic Forms ◽  
Cultural Foundations ◽  
Interdisciplinary Nature ◽  
The Aesthetic ◽  
Relationship Of

The purpose of this work is to study the visual and acoustic relationship of painting and music in the Middle Ages. When writing the article the authors focused on modern sources and used such important for the socio-humanitarian sciences methods of research as comparative, phenomenological, semiotic, art history, cultural studies and visual anthropology, which determined the interdisciplinary nature of the study, which focuses of the aesthetic specificity of the perception of the phenomenal image. The significance of the study lies in the fact that the results obtained allow to better understand the cultural foundations of the non-verbal way of perception, the peculiarities of medieval culture and aesthetics of Western Europe and its semiotic and symbolic forms, primarily in the perspective of the interaction of painting and music in the sacred and everyday spaces of the existence of medieval man.

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