scholarly journals Stochastic model for COVID-19 in slums: interaction between biology and public policies

Author(s):  
H.G. Solari ◽  
M.A. Natiello

AbstractWe present a mathematical model for the simulation of the development of an outbreak of COVID-19 in a slum area under different interventions. Instead of representing interventions as modulations of the parameters of a free running epidemic we introduce a model structure that accounts for the actions but does not assume the results. The disease is modelled in terms of the progression of viremia reported in scientific works. The emergence of symptoms in the model reflects the statistics of a nation-wide highly detailed database consisting of more than 62000 cases (about a half of the confirmed by RT-PCR tests) with recorded symptoms in Argentina. The stochastic model displays several of the characteristics of COVID-19 such as a high variability in the evolution of the outbreaks, including long periods in which they run undetected, spontaneous extinction followed by a late outbreak and unimodal as well as bimodal progressions of daily counts of cases (second waves without ad-hoc hypothesis). We show how the relation between undetected cases (including the “asymptomatic” cases) and detected cases changes as a function of the public policies, the efficiency of the implementation and the timing with respect to the development of the outbreak. We show also that the relation between detected cases and total cases strongly depends on the implemented policies and that detected cases cannot be regarded as a measure of the outbreak, being the dependency between total cases and detected cases in general not monotonic as a function of the efficiency in the intervention method. According to the model, it is possible to control an outbreak with interventions based on the detection of symptoms only in the case when the presence of just one symptom prompts isolation and the detection efficiency reaches about 80% of the cases. Requesting two symptoms to trigger intervention can be enough to fail in the goals.

Author(s):  
Stephen Tahan ◽  
Bijal A. Parikh ◽  
Lindsay Droit ◽  
Meghan A. Wallace ◽  
Carey-Ann D. Burnham ◽  
...  

Diagnostic assays for detecting SARS-CoV-2 are essential for patient management, infection prevention, and the public health response for COVID-19. The efficacy and reliability of these assays are of paramount importance in both tracking and controlling spread of the virus. Real-time RT-PCR assays rely on a fixed genetic sequence for primers and probe binding. Mutations can potentially alter the accuracy of these assays and lead to unpredictable analytical performance characteristics and false-negative results. Herein, we identify a G-to-U transversion (nucleotide 26372) in the SARS-CoV-2 E gene in three specimens with reduced viral detection efficiency using a widely available commercial assay. Further analysis of the public GISAID repository led to the identification of 18 additional genomes with this mutation, which reflect five independent mutational events. This work supports the use of dual-target assays to reduce the number of false-negative PCR results.


Intersections ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulderico Daniele ◽  
Stefano Pasta ◽  
Greta Persico

Roma migration from Eastern countries has been one of the main topics of public debate in Italy in the last decade. Roma people have been depicted as the biggest threat to citizens’ safety, especially in the biggest cities, and have become the target of special securitarian measures that revive old stereotypes. At the same time, thanks to various European bodies, Roma people have also became the targets of ad hoc inclusionary policies, such as the National Strategy for Inclusion. The deconstruction of the camp system for nomads was one of the basic targets of all the interventions. This article describes what happened to Roma migrants during the last ten years – from the ‘Nomad Emergency’ of 2007 until the present-day dismantling of the nomad camp system. It focuses on Roma migrants who live in the two Italian cities where most of the Romanian Roma have settled since the beginning of the 21st century: Milan and Rome. The paper analyzes the public policies that were implemented by national and local authorities, and highlights some of the strategies that Roma migrants use to cope with the dismantling of the nomad camp system.


Author(s):  
Federico VAZ ◽  
Sharon PRENDEVILLE

Described as units developing public policies in a design-oriented manner, Policy Labs are tasked to innovate to gain in policy effectiveness and efficiency. However, as public policymaking is a context-dependent activity, the way in which these novel organisations operate significantly differs. This study discusses the emergence of design approaches for policy innovation. The purpose is to map how Policy Labs in Europe introduce design approaches at distinct stages of the policymaking cycle. For this study, 30 organisations in Europe operating at various levels of government were surveyed. Based on the public policymaking process model, it investigates which design methods are Policy Labs deploying to innovate public policies. The study exposed a gap in the awareness of the utilised methods' nature. It also showed that the use of design methods is of less importance than the introduction of design mindsets for public policy innovation, namely ‘user-centredness’, ‘co-creation’, and ‘exploration’.


2017 ◽  
pp. 163
Author(s):  
Nicolás Gómez Núñez

En tres breves capítulos, el artículo pone a disposición las ideas básicas que cruzan la reflexión sobre las actividades económicas que las personas realizan en condiciones de pobreza, destacándose la preocupación sobre si estos desempeños pueden constituirse en alternativas de crecimiento económico a nivel local o si ellas son actores que inciden en las políticas públicas que organizan los supuestos del desarrollo.Palabras clave Actividades Económicas Autogestionadas / Autonomía / Capacitación / Desarrollo Endógeno.Abstract:In three brief chapters, the article displays the basic ideas that intersect the reflection on the economic activities that people perform in conditions of poverty, standing out the concern whether these performances can constitute in alternatives of economic growth at the local level or whether they are activities that affect the public policies which organize the theories of development.Key words Self-managed economic activities / Autonomy / Training / Endogenous Development


Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 1342
Author(s):  
Borja Nogales ◽  
Miguel Silva ◽  
Ivan Vidal ◽  
Miguel Luís ◽  
Francisco Valera ◽  
...  

5G communications have become an enabler for the creation of new and more complex networking scenarios, bringing together different vertical ecosystems. Such behavior has been fostered by the network function virtualization (NFV) concept, where the orchestration and virtualization capabilities allow the possibility of dynamically supplying network resources according to its needs. Nevertheless, the integration and performance of heterogeneous network environments, each one supported by a different provider, and with specific characteristics and requirements, in a single NFV framework is not straightforward. In this work we propose an NFV-based framework capable of supporting the flexible, cost-effective deployment of vertical services, through the integration of two distinguished mobile environments and their networks: small sized unmanned aerial vehicles (SUAVs), supporting a flying ad hoc network (FANET) and vehicles, promoting a vehicular ad hoc network (VANET). In this context, a use case involving the public safety vertical will be used as an illustrative example to showcase the potential of this framework. This work also includes the technical implementation details of the framework proposed, allowing to analyse and discuss the delays on the network services deployment process. The results show that the deployment times can be significantly reduced through a distributed VNF configuration function based on the publish–subscribe model.


Author(s):  
Sebastián Videla ◽  
Aurema Otero ◽  
Sara Martí ◽  
M. Ángeles Domínguez ◽  
Nuria Fabrellas ◽  
...  

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic started in December 2019 and still is a major global health challenge. Lockdown measures and social distancing sparked a global shift towards online learning, which deeply impacted universities’ daily life, and the University of Barcelona (UB) was not an exception. Accordingly, we aimed to determine the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic at the UB. To that end, we performed a cross-sectional study on a sample of 2784 UB members (n = 52,529). Participants answered a brief, ad hoc, online epidemiological questionnaire and provided a nasal swab for reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) SARS-CoV-2 analysis and a venous blood sample for SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody assay. Total prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection (positive RT-PCR or positive IgG) was 14.9% (95%CI 13.3 to 17.0%). Forty-four participants (1.6%, 95%CI: 1.2–2.1%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR. IgG against SARS-CoV-2 was observed in 12.8% (95%CI: 11.6–14.1%) of participants. Overall, while waiting for population vaccination and/or increased herd immunity, we should concentrate on identifying and isolating new cases and their contacts.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jasim AlAradi ◽  
Rawan A Rahman AlHarmi ◽  
Mariam AlKooheji ◽  
Sayed Ali Almahari ◽  
Mohamed Abdulla Isa ◽  
...  

Abstract This is a case series of five patients with acute abdomen requiring surgery who tested positive for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and were asymptomatic, with the purpose of detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in peritoneal fluid. Nasopharyngeal swab was done as a prerequisite for admission or prior to admission as part of random testing. Two methods of viral testing were employed: Xpert® Xpress SARS-CoV-2 (rapid test) and real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Either or both tests were done, with the former performed for patients requiring surgery immediately. Surgery was performed within 24–36 h from admission. Peritoneal fluid swabs were obtained for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 using RT-PCR test. Swabs were immediately placed in viral transfer media and delivered to the public health laboratory in an ice bag. SARS-CoV-2 was not detected in peritoneal swabs. Due to the limited number of patients, further studies are required; yet, protective measures should still be taken by surgeons when dealing with COVID-19 cases.


2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 217-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wasana Bandara ◽  
Scott Bailey ◽  
Paul Mathiesen ◽  
Jo McCarthy ◽  
Chris Jones

Business process management (BPM) in the public sector is proliferating globally, but has its contextual challenges. Ad hoc process improvement initiatives across governmental departments are not uncommon. However, as for all organisations, BPM efforts that are coordinated across the organisation will reap better outcomes than those conducted in isolation. BPM education plays a vital role in supporting such organisation-wide BPM efforts. This teaching case is focused on the sustainable development and progression of enterprise business process management (E-BPM) capabilities at the Federal Department of Human Services: a large Australian federal government agency. The detailed case narrative vividly describes the case organisation, their prior and present BPM practices and how they have attempted BPM at an enterprise level, capturing pros and cons of the journey. A series of student activities pertaining to E-BPM practices is provided with model answers (covering key aspects of BPM governance, strategic alignment, culture, people, IT, methods, etc.). This case provides invaluable insights into E-BPM efforts in general and BPM within the public sector. It can be useful to BPM educators as a rich training resource and to BPM practitioners seeking guidance for their E-BPM efforts.


2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 444-472 ◽  
Author(s):  
Perry Maxfield Waldman Sherouse

In recent years, cars have steadily colonized the sidewalks in downtown Tbilisi. By driving and parking on sidewalks, vehicles have reshaped public space and placed pedestrian life at risk. A variety of social actors coordinate sidewalk affairs in the city, including the local government, a private company called CT Park, and a fleet of self-appointed st’aianshik’ebi (parking attendants) who direct drivers into parking spots for spare change. Pedestrian activists have challenged the automotive conquest of footpaths in innovative ways, including art installations, social media protests, and the fashioning of ad hoc physical barriers. By safeguarding sidewalks against cars, activists assert ideals for public space that are predicated on sharp boundaries between sidewalk and street, pedestrian and machine, citizen and commodity. Politicians and activists alike connect the sharpness of such boundaries to an imagined Europe. Georgia’s parking culture thus reflects not only local configurations of power among the many interests clamoring for the space of the sidewalk, but also global hierarchies of value that form meaningful distinctions and aspirational horizons in debates over urban public space. Against the dismal frictions of an expanding car system, social actors mobilize the idioms of freedom and shame to reinterpret and repartition the public/private distinction.


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