SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Belarus revealed by genomic and incidence data analysis

Since the emergence of COVID-19, a series of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) has been implemented by governments and public health authorities worldwide to control and curb the ongoing pandemic spread. From that perspective, Belarus is one of a few countries with a relatively modern healthcare system, where much narrower NPIs have been put in place. Given the uniqueness of this Belarusian experience, the understanding its COVID-19 epidemiological dynamics is essential not only for the local assessment, but also for a better insight into the impact of different NPI strategies globally. In this work, we integrate genomic epidemiology and surveillance methods to investigate the emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the country. The observed Belarusian SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity originated from at least eighteen separate introductions, at least five of which resulted in ongoing domestic transmissions. The introduction sources represent a wide variety of regions, although the proportion of regional virus introductions and exports from/to geographical neighbors appears to be higher than for other European countries. Phylodynamic analysis indicates a moderate reduction in the effective reproductive number R_e after the introduction of limited NPIs, with the reduction magnitude generally being lower than for countries with large-scale NPIs. On the other hand, the estimate of the Belarusian R_e at the early epidemic stage is comparable with this number for the neighboring ex-USSR country of Ukraine, where much broader NPIs have been implemented. The actual number of cases by the end of May, 2020 was predicted to be 2-9 times higher than the detected number of cases.

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SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Belarus in 2020 revealed by genomic and incidence data analysis

Communications Medicine ◽

10.1038/s43856-021-00031-1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Alina Nemira ◽

Ayotomiwa Ezekiel Adeniyi ◽

Elena L. Gasich ◽

Kirill Y. Bulda ◽

Leonid N. Valentovich ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Sociodemographic Factors ◽

Genomic Diversity ◽

Reproductive Number ◽

Cumulative Number ◽

Population Mobility ◽

Genomic Epidemiology ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been implemented worldwide to curb COVID-19 spread. Belarus is a rare case of a country with a relatively modern healthcare system, where highly limited NPIs have been enacted. Thus, investigation of Belarusian COVID-19 dynamics is essential for the local and global assessment of the impact of NPI strategies. Methods We integrate genomic epidemiology and surveillance methods to investigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Belarus in 2020. We utilize phylodynamics, phylogeography, and probabilistic bias inference to study the virus import and export routes, the dynamics of the effective reproduction number, and the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results Here we show that the estimated cumulative number of infections by June 2020 exceeds the confirmed case number by a factor of ~4 (95% confidence interval (2; 9)). Intra-country SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity originates from at least 18 introductions from different regions, with a high proportion of regional transmissions. Phylodynamic analysis indicates a moderate reduction of the effective reproductive number after the introduction of limited NPIs, but its magnitude is lower than for developed countries with large-scale NPIs. On the other hand, the effective reproduction number estimate is comparable with that for the neighboring Ukraine, where NPIs were broader. Conclusions The example of Belarus demonstrates how countries with relatively low outward population mobility continue to be integral parts of the global epidemiological environment. Comparison of the effective reproduction number dynamics for Belarus and other countries reveals the effect of different NPI strategies but also emphasizes the role of regional Eastern European sociodemographic factors in the virus spread.

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Digital proximity tracing on empirical contact networks for pandemic control

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-021-21809-w ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Author(s):

G. Cencetti ◽

G. Santin ◽

A. Longa ◽

E. Pigani ◽

A. Barrat ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Disease Outbreaks ◽

Physical Distance ◽

Contact Tracing ◽

Reproductive Number ◽

Modeling Framework ◽

Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽

Contact Patterns ◽

Contact Data ◽

The Impact

AbstractDigital contact tracing is a relevant tool to control infectious disease outbreaks, including the COVID-19 epidemic. Early work evaluating digital contact tracing omitted important features and heterogeneities of real-world contact patterns influencing contagion dynamics. We fill this gap with a modeling framework informed by empirical high-resolution contact data to analyze the impact of digital contact tracing in the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate how well contact tracing apps, coupled with the quarantine of identified contacts, can mitigate the spread in real environments. We find that restrictive policies are more effective in containing the epidemic but come at the cost of unnecessary large-scale quarantines. Policy evaluation through their efficiency and cost results in optimized solutions which only consider contacts longer than 15–20 minutes and closer than 2–3 meters to be at risk. Our results show that isolation and tracing can help control re-emerging outbreaks when some conditions are met: (i) a reduction of the reproductive number through masks and physical distance; (ii) a low-delay isolation of infected individuals; (iii) a high compliance. Finally, we observe the inefficacy of a less privacy-preserving tracing involving second order contacts. Our results may inform digital contact tracing efforts currently being implemented across several countries worldwide.

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XarxaSalut, network of municipalities for health, Valencia Region (Spain): policy process evaluation

European Journal of Public Health ◽

10.1093/eurpub/ckaa165.235 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽

Author(s):

R Peiró Pérez ◽

E Pérez Sanz ◽

E Legaz Sanchez ◽

J Quiles Izquierdo ◽

Grupo XarxaSalut

Keyword(s):

Process Evaluation ◽

Citizen Participation ◽

Policy Process ◽

Local Level ◽

Common Language ◽

Health Authorities ◽

Open Questions ◽

Economic Support ◽

Public Health Authorities ◽

The Impact

Abstract “XarxaSalut” started in 2017, with the municipalities that have taken the commitment to boost the Promotion of Health (HP) at the local level through community participation, intersectorality and equity perspective. The objective is to present a policy process evaluation (2'5 years) of the implementation of XarxaSalut. Different approaches have been used; a questionnaire addressed to the municipalities at the time of adhesion including data on intersectorality, participation, HP actions and open questions; description of instruments that Regional Public Health Authorities (RPHA) has mobilized and an analysis of barriers and strengths made by the coordination office. In 2017, 17 municipalities were joined, being 197 in February 2020 (70% of the population). 65% are in a process of an organizational change through the intersectoral, decision making and participative working group. 35% are doing analysis of determinants and /or health situation, assets maps and a prioritization of HP actions. The main barriers identified by municipalities are lack of economic and personal resources, and difficulties in achieve citizen participation. The main benefits were the optimization of resources, the exchange of experiences, training, or economic support from the RPHA. Some support instruments develop for RPHA are a collection of guides for community development, funds that the municipalities can apply to support actions related with training, HP action on vulnerable population, on asset maps, participation processes, vulnerable neighborhoods, etc.; Community actions have been included in the “Health Observatory” to give visibility and social support to XarxaSalut. Interdisciplinary training processes with health and municipal professionals have been made in order to develop a common language and strength the competences for HP. Lesson learned: The need to improve coordination and a common language between different types of participants and professionals Key messages The decision makers and professionals in the municipalities understand the impact in health of the policies developed at local level but needs guide and support to deal with it. The coordination between different administrations and primary health at local level and the misunderstandings about health and their determinants are the main aspect to reinforce.

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Audio Mining: The Role of Vocal Tone in Persuasion

Journal of Consumer Research ◽

10.1093/jcr/ucab012 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Xin (Shane) Wang ◽

Shijie Lu ◽

X I Li ◽

Mansur Khamitov ◽

Neil Bendle

Keyword(s):

Empirical Study ◽

Large Scale ◽

Controlled Experiments ◽

The Core ◽

Content Model ◽

Stereotype Content ◽

Key Indicators ◽

The Impact ◽

Insight Into

Abstract Persuasion success is often related to hard-to-measure characteristics, such as the way the persuader speaks. To examine how vocal tones impact persuasion in an online appeal, this research measures persuaders’ vocal tones in Kickstarter video pitches using novel audio mining technology. Connecting vocal tone dimensions with real-world funding outcomes offers insight into the impact of vocal tones on receivers’ actions. The core hypothesis of this paper is that a successful persuasion attempt is associated with vocal tones denoting (1) focus, (2) low stress, and (3) stable emotions. These three vocal tone dimensions—which are in line with the stereotype content model—matter because they allow receivers to make inferences about a persuader’s competence. The hypotheses are tested with a large-scale empirical study using Kickstarter data, which is then replicated in a different category. In addition, two controlled experiments provide evidence that perceptions of competence mediate the impact of the three vocal tones on persuasion attempt success. The results identify key indicators of persuasion attempt success and suggest a greater role for audio mining in academic consumer research.

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The Impact of Covid-19 Public Health Policies on Persons with Disability and their Caregivers in Malta

International Journal of Social Science Research and Review ◽

10.47814/ijssrr.v4i2.88 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (2) ◽

pp. 25-37

Author(s):

Andrew Camilleri ◽

Samantha Pace Gasan ◽

Andrew Azzopardi

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

World Health Organisation ◽

World Health ◽

Persons With Disabilities ◽

Health Authorities ◽

Essential Services ◽

Public Health Authorities ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Restrictive Measures ◽

The Impact

On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared a global health pandemic, due to the spread of a novel coronavirus, later named “Covid-19”. The spread of Covid-19 led to social isolation, distancing and a number of restrictive measures in Malta. The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of Covid-19 and the subsequent restrictive measures on persons with disability and their caregivers and families in Malta. Using thematic analysis, the study found that a variety of impacts ranging from a sense of isolation, lack of essential services being provided, additional difficulties encountered at the place of work and education and measures that were not sufficiently tailored for persons with disability issued by public health authorities. Underlying the additional difficulties brought about by Covid-19, structural difficulties to access essential services as well as ignorance from policy makers and politicians and the added “vulnerable-ization” of persons with disabilities were found to be highly impacting factors that pervade the experience of persons with disabilities and their caregivers.

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Geospatial Analysis and Mapping Strategies for Fine Grained and Detailed COVID-19 Data With Geographic Information Systems

10.21203/rs.3.rs-273514/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

ÁNGEL MIRAMONTES CARBALLADA ◽

JOSE BALSA-BARREIRO

Keyword(s):

Geographic Location ◽

Social Contact ◽

Temporal Behaviour ◽

Fine Grained ◽

Health Authorities ◽

Public Health Authorities ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

Media Reports ◽

Predictive Risk ◽

The Impact

Abstract The CoVID-19 pandemic is showing a dramatic impact across the world. To the tragedy of the loss of human lives, we must add the great uncertainty that the new coronavirus is causing to our lives. Governments and public health authorities must be able to respond this emergency by taking the appropriate decisions for minimizing the impact of the virus. In the absence of an immediate solution, governments have concentrated their efforts on adopting non-pharmaceutical interventions for restricting the mobility of people and reducing the social contact. Health authorities are publishing most of data for supporting their interventions and policies. The geographic location of the cases is a vital information with exceptional value for analysing the spatio-temporal behaviour of the virus, doing feasible to anticipate potential outbreaks and to elaborate predictive risk mapping. In fact, a great number of media reports, research papers, and web-browsers have presented the COVID-19 disease spreading by using maps. However, processing and visualization of this sort of data presents some aspects that must be carefully reviewed. Based on our experience with fine-grained and detailed data related to COVID-19 in a Spanish region, we present a bunch of mapping strategies and good practices using geospatial tools. The ultimate goal is create appropriate maps at any spatial scale while avoiding conflicts with data such as those related to patients’ privacy.

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CAN INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT ALLEVIATE MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY? — EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

The Singapore Economic Review ◽

10.1142/s0217590821440021 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-34

Author(s):

YONGBO GE ◽

YUEXIAO ZHU ◽

WENQIANG ZHANG ◽

XIAORAN KONG

Keyword(s):

Poverty Alleviation ◽

Capital Accumulation ◽

High Speed ◽

Large Scale ◽

Multidimensional Poverty ◽

Infrastructure Development ◽

Public Infrastructure ◽

Regional Heterogeneity ◽

The Impact ◽

Insight Into

We investigate the impact of the construction of large-scale high-speed railways (HSRs) on regional multidimensional poverty in China. We find that the opening of HSRs can reduce this poverty indicator. This association is robust to a series of checks. Regarding the mechanisms, the opening of HSRs can improve regional accessibility, enhance local tourism, increase labor mobility and promote human capital accumulation, which alleviates multidimensional poverty. Further research indicates the regional heterogeneity of the effect. This research supplements poverty alleviation theory from the perspective of public infrastructure and offers insight into how multidimensional poverty arises and how it can be alleviated.

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Impact of data accuracy on the evaluation of COVID-19 mitigation policies

Data & Policy ◽

10.1017/dap.2021.25 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 3 ◽

Author(s):

Michele Starnini ◽

Alberto Aleta ◽

Michele Tizzoni ◽

Yamir Moreno

Keyword(s):

Epidemiological Data ◽

Surveillance Data ◽

Inaccurate Data ◽

Health Authorities ◽

The Social ◽

Containment Measures ◽

Public Health Authorities ◽

Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽

The Impact ◽

Extreme Care

Abstract Evaluating the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic is crucial to maximize the epidemic containment while minimizing the social and economic impact of these measures. However, this endeavor crucially relies on surveillance data publicly released by health authorities that can hide several limitations. In this article, we quantify the impact of inaccurate data on the estimation of the time-varying reproduction number $ R(t) $ , a pivotal quantity to gauge the variation of the transmissibility originated by the implementation of different NPIs. We focus on Italy and Spain, two European countries among the most severely hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. For these two countries, we highlight several biases of case-based surveillance data and temporal and spatial limitations in the data regarding the implementation of NPIs. We also demonstrate that a nonbiased estimation of $ R(t) $ could have had direct consequences on the decisions taken by the Spanish and Italian governments during the first wave of the pandemic. Our study shows that extreme care should be taken when evaluating intervention policies through publicly available epidemiological data and call for an improvement in the process of COVID-19 data collection, management, storage, and release. Better data policies will allow a more precise evaluation of the effects of containment measures, empowering public health authorities to take more informed decisions.

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Proton Pump Inhibitors and Risk of Dementia: A Hypothesis Generated but Not Adequately Tested

American Journal of Alzheimer s Disease & Other Dementias® ◽

10.1177/15333175211062413 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 36 ◽

pp. 153331752110624

Author(s):

Mishah Azhar ◽

Lawrence Fiedler ◽

Patricio S. Espinosa ◽

Charles H. Hennekens

Keyword(s):

Proton Pump Inhibitors ◽

Proton Pump ◽

Real World ◽

Large Scale ◽

Basic Research ◽

The United States ◽

Epidemiological Studies ◽

Real World Data ◽

Health Authorities ◽

Public Health Authorities

We reviewed the evidence on proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) and dementia. PPIs are among the most widely utilized drugs in the world. Dementia affects roughly 5% of the population of the United States (US) and world aged 60 years and older. With respect to PPIs and dementia, basic research has suggested plausible mechanisms but descriptive and analytic epidemiological studies are not inconsistent. In addition, a single large-scale randomized trial showed no association. When the evidence is incomplete, it is appropriate for clinicians and researchers to remain uncertain. Regulatory or public health authorities sometimes need to make real-world decisions based on real-world data. When the evidence is complete, then the most rational judgments for individual patients the health of the general public are possible At present, the evidence on PPIs and dementia suggests more reassurance than alarm. Further large-scale randomized evidence is necessary to do so.

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The importance of sustained compliance with physical distancing during COVID-19 vaccination rollout

10.21203/rs.3.rs-390037/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Alexandra Teslya ◽

Ganna Rozhnova ◽

Thi Mui Pham ◽

Daphne van Wees ◽

Hendrik Nunner ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Vaccination Coverage ◽

Vaccine Coverage ◽

Transmission Model ◽

Cumulative Number ◽

Vaccination Rates ◽

Contact Rates ◽

Health Authorities ◽

Public Health Authorities ◽

Vaccination Campaigns ◽

The Impact

Abstract Mass vaccination campaigns against SARS-CoV-2 are under way in many countries with the hope that increasing vaccination coverage will enable reducing current physical distancing measures. Compliance with these measures is waning, while more transmissible virus variants such as B.1.1.7 have emerged. Using SARS-CoV-2 transmission model we investigated the impact of the feedback between compliance, the incidence of infection, and vaccination coverage on the success of a vaccination programme in the population where waning of compliance depends on vaccine coverage. Our results suggest that the combination of fast waning compliance, slow vaccination rates, and more transmissible variants may result in a higher cumulative number of infections than in a situation without vaccination. These adverse effects can be alleviated if vaccinated individuals do not revert to pre-pandemic contact rates, and if non-vaccinated individuals remain compliant with physical distancing measures. Both require convincing, clear and appropriately targeted communication strategies by public health authorities.

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