scholarly journals Drop of Prevalence after Population Expansion: A lower prevalence for recessive disorders in a random mating population is a transient phenomenon during and after a growth phase

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis Aniello La Rocca ◽  
Julia Frank ◽  
Heidi Beate Bentzen ◽  
Jean-Tori Pantel ◽  
Konrad Gerischer ◽  
...  

Despite increasing data from population-wide sequencing studies, the risk for recessive disorders in consanguineous partnerships is still heavily debated. An important aspect that has not sufficiently been investigated theoretically, is the influence of inbreeding on mutation load and incidence rates when the population sizes change. We therefore developed a model to study these dynamics for a wide range of growth and mating conditions. In the phase of population expansion and shortly afterwards, our simulations show that there is a drop of diseased individuals at the expense of an increasing mutation load for random mating, while both parameters remain almost constant in highly consanguineous partnerships. This explains the empirical observation in present times that a high degree of consanguinity is associated with an increased risk of autosomal recessive disorders. However, it also states that the higher frequency of severe recessive disorders with developmental delay in inbred populations is a transient phenomenon before a mutation-selection balance is reached again.

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Regina Sá ◽  
Tiago Pinho-Bandeira ◽  
Guilherme Queiroz ◽  
Joana Matos ◽  
João Duarte Ferreira ◽  
...  

<b><i>Background:</i></b> Ovar was the first Portuguese municipality to declare active community transmission of SARS-CoV-2, with total lockdown decreed on March 17, 2020. This context provided conditions for a large-scale testing strategy, allowing a referral system considering other symptoms besides the ones that were part of the case definition (fever, cough, and dyspnea). This study aims to identify other symptoms associated with COVID-19 since it may clarify the pre-test probability of the occurrence of the disease. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> This case-control study uses primary care registers between March 29 and May 10, 2020 in Ovar municipality. Pre-test clinical and exposure-risk characteristics, reported by physicians, were collected through a form, and linked with their laboratory result. <b><i>Results:</i></b> The study population included a total of 919 patients, of whom 226 (24.6%) were COVID-19 cases and 693 were negative for SARS-CoV-2. Only 27.1% of the patients reporting contact with a confirmed or suspected case tested positive. In the multivariate analysis, statistical significance was obtained for headaches (OR 0.558), odynophagia (OR 0.273), anosmia (OR 2.360), and other symptoms (OR 2.157). The interaction of anosmia and odynophagia appeared as possibly relevant with a borderline statistically significant OR of 3.375. <b><i>Conclusion:</i></b> COVID-19 has a wide range of symptoms. Of the myriad described, the present study highlights anosmia itself and calls for additional studies on the interaction between anosmia and odynophagia. Headaches and odynophagia by themselves are not associated with an increased risk for the disease. These findings may help clinicians in deciding when to test, especially when other diseases with similar symptoms are more prevalent, namely in winter.


Genetics ◽  
2000 ◽  
Vol 156 (1) ◽  
pp. 457-467 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z W Luo ◽  
S H Tao ◽  
Z-B Zeng

Abstract Three approaches are proposed in this study for detecting or estimating linkage disequilibrium between a polymorphic marker locus and a locus affecting quantitative genetic variation using the sample from random mating populations. It is shown that the disequilibrium over a wide range of circumstances may be detected with a power of 80% by using phenotypic records and marker genotypes of a few hundred individuals. Comparison of ANOVA and regression methods in this article to the transmission disequilibrium test (TDT) shows that, given the genetic variance explained by the trait locus, the power of TDT depends on the trait allele frequency, whereas the power of ANOVA and regression analyses is relatively independent from the allelic frequency. The TDT method is more powerful when the trait allele frequency is low, but much less powerful when it is high. The likelihood analysis provides reliable estimation of the model parameters when the QTL variance is at least 10% of the phenotypic variance and the sample size of a few hundred is used. Potential use of these estimates in mapping the trait locus is also discussed.


Rheumatology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Kiadaliri ◽  
Martin Englund

Abstract Objective To determine the association between osteoarthritis (OA) and risk of hospitalization for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (HACSCs). Methods We included all individuals aged 40–85 years who resided in Skåne, Sweden on 31st December 2005 with at least one healthcare consultation during 1998–2005 (n = 515 256). We identified those with a main diagnosis of OA between January 1, 1998 and December 31, 2016. People were followed from January 1st 2006 until an HACSC, death, relocation outside Skåne, or December 31st 2016 (whichever occurred first). OA status was treated as a time-varying covariate (those diagnosed before January 1, 2006 considered as exposed for whole study period). We assessed relative (hazard ratios (HRs) using Cox proportional hazard model) and absolute (hazard difference using additive hazard model) effects of OA on HACSCs adjusted for potential confounders. Results Crude incidence rates of HACSCs were 239 (95% CI 235, 242) and 151 (150, 152) per 10 000 person-years among OA and non-OA persons, respectively. The OA persons had an increased risk of HACSCs (HR [95% CI] 1.11 [1.09, 1.13]) and its subcategories of medical conditions except chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR [95% CI] 0.86 [0.81, 0.90]). There were 20 (95% CI 16, 24) more HACSCs per 10 000 person-years in OA compared with non-OA persons. While HRs for knee and hip OA were generally comparable, only knee OA was associated with increased risk of hospitalization for diabetes. Conclusion OA is associated with an increased risk of HACSCs, highlighting the urgent need to improve outpatient care for OA patients.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (S1) ◽  
pp. s258-s259
Author(s):  
James Harrigan ◽  
Ebbing Lautenbach ◽  
Emily Reesey ◽  
Magda Wernovsky ◽  
Pam Tolomeo ◽  
...  

Background: Clinically diagnosed ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is common in the long-term acute-care hospital (LTACH) setting and may contribute to adverse ventilator-associated events (VAEs). Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a common causative organism of VAP. We evaluated the impact of respiratory P. aeruginosa colonization and bacterial community dominance, both diagnosed and undiagnosed, on subsequent P. aeruginosa VAP and VAE events during long-term acute care. Methods: We enrolled 83 patients on LTACH admission for ventilator weaning, performed longitudinal sampling of endotracheal aspirates followed by 16S rRNA gene sequencing (Illumina HiSeq), and bacterial community profiling (QIIME2). Statistical analysis was performed with R and Stan; mixed-effects models were fit to relate the abundance of respiratory Psa on admission to clinically diagnosed VAP and VAE events. Results: Of the 83 patients included, 12 were diagnosed with P. aeruginosa pneumonia during the 14 days prior to LTACH admission (known P. aeruginosa), and 22 additional patients received anti–P. aeruginosa antibiotics within 48 hours of admission (suspected P. aeruginosa); 49 patients had no known or suspected P. aeruginosa (unknown P. aeruginosa). Among the known P. aeruginosa group, all 12 patients had P. aeruginosa detectable by 16S sequencing, with elevated admission P. aeruginosa proportional abundance (median, 0.97; IQR, 0.33–1). Among the suspected P. aeruginosa group, all 22 patients had P. aeruginosa detectable by 16S sequencing, with a wide range of admission P. aeruginosa proportional abundance (median, 0.0088; IQR, 0.00012–0.31). Of the 49 patients in the unknown group, 47 also had detectable respiratory Psa, and many had high P. aeruginosa proportional abundance at admission (median, 0.014; IQR, 0.00025–0.52). Incident P. aeruginosa VAP was observed within 30 days in 4 of the known P. aeruginosa patients (33.3%), 5 of the suspected P. aeruginosa patients (22.7%), and 8 of the unknown P. aeruginosa patients (16.3%). VAE was observed within 30 days in 1 of the known P. aeruginosa patients (8.3%), 2 of the suspected P. aeruginosa patients (9.1%), and 1 of the unknown P. aeruginosa patients (2%). Admission P. aeruginosa abundance was positively associated with VAP and VAE risk in all groups, but the association only achieved statistical significance in the unknown group (type S error <0.002 for 30-day VAP and <0.011 for 30-day VAE). Conclusions: We identified a high prevalence of unrecognized respiratory P. aeruginosa colonization among patients admitted to LTACH for weaning from mechanical ventilation. The admission P. aeruginosa proportional abundance was strongly associated with increased risk of incident P. aeruginosa VAP among these patients.Funding: NoneDisclosures: None


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
P McEwan ◽  
L Hoskin ◽  
K Badora ◽  
D Sugrue ◽  
G James ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), heart failure (HF), resistant hypertension (RHTN) and diabetes are at an increased risk of hyperkalaemia (HK) which can be potentially life-threatening, as a result of cardiac arrhythmias, cardiac arrest leading to sudden death. In these patients, renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors (RAASi), are used to manage several cardiovascular and renal conditions, and are associated with an increased risk of HK. Assessing the burden of HK in real-world clinical practice may concentrate relevant care on those patients most in need, potentially improving patient outcomes and efficiency of the healthcare system. Purpose To assess the burden of HK in a real-world population of UK patients with at least one of: RHTN, Type I or II diabetes, CKD stage 3+, dialysis, HF, or in receipt of a prescription for RAASi. Methods Primary and secondary care data for this retrospective study were obtained from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) and linked Hospital Episode Statistics (HES). Eligible patients were identified using READ codes defining the relevant diagnosis, receipt of indication-specific medication, or, in the case of CKD, an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≤60 ml/min/1.73m2 within the study period (01 January 2008 to 30 June 2018) or in the five-year lookback period (2003–2007). The index date was defined as 01 January 2008 or first diagnosis of an eligible condition or RAASi prescription, whichever occurred latest. HK was defined as K+ ≥5.0 mmol/L; thresholds of ≥5.5 mmol/L and ≥6.0 mmol/L were explored as sensitivity analyses. Incidence rates of HK were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results The total eligible population across all cohorts was 931,460 patients. RHTN was the most prevalent comorbidity (n=317,135; 34.0%) and dialysis the least prevalent (n=4,415; 0.5%). The majority of the eligible population were prescribed RAASi during follow-up (n=754,523; 81.0%). At a K+ threshold of ≥5.0 mmol/L, the dialysis cohort had the highest rate of HK (501.0 events per 1,000 patient-years), followed by HF (490.9), CKD (410.9), diabetes (355.0), RHTN (261.4) and the RAASi cohort (211.2) (Figure 1). This pattern was still observed at alternative threshold definitions of HK. Conclusion This large real-world study of UK patients demonstrates the burden of hyperkalaemia in high-risk patient populations from the UK. There is a need for effective prevention and treatment of HK, particularly in patients with CKD, dialysis or HF where increased incidence rates are observed which in turn will improve patient outcomes and healthcare resource usage. Figure 1. Rates of HK by condition Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Private company. Main funding source(s): AstraZeneca


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolette Stogios ◽  
Alexander Gdanski ◽  
Philip Gerretsen ◽  
Araba F. Chintoh ◽  
Ariel Graff-Guerrero ◽  
...  

AbstractSchizophrenia (SCZ) is a psychiatric disorder characterized by a wide range of positive, negative and cognitive symptoms, along with an increased risk of metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular disease that contribute to a 15–20-year reduced life expectancy. Autonomic dysfunction, in the form of increased sympathetic activity and decreased parasympathetic activity, is postulated to be implicated in SCZ and its treatment. The aim of this narrative review is to view SCZ through an autonomic lens and synthesize the evidence relating autonomic dysfunction to different domains of SCZ. Using various methods of assessing autonomic activity, autonomic dysfunction was found to be associated with multiple aspects of SCZ pathophysiology, including symptom severity, cognitive impairment, and the development of cardiometabolic comorbidities, such as metabolic syndrome and high BMI. The strongest association of low heart rate variability was noted among patients on antipsychotic treatment with high-affinity muscarinic antagonism (i.e., clozapine, olanzapine and quetiapine). The review will also suggest ways in which studying autonomic dysfunction can help reduce morbidity and mortality associated with SCZ and its treatment.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Fakhari ◽  
Mostafa Farahbakhsh ◽  
Elham Davtalab Esmaeili ◽  
Hosein Azizi

Abstract Background A detailed community-level understanding of socioeconomic status (SES) and sociocultural status (SCS) of suicides and suicide attempters (SAs) in a prospective design could have significant implications for policymakers at the local prevention and treatment levels. The effect of SCS and SES on SAs is poorly understood and investigated in Iran. The present study aimed to investigate the incidence, trend, and role of SES and SCS on suicide and SAs. Methods A longitudinal study was conducted based on the registry for SAs in Malekan County, Iran, from 2015 to 2018. Demographic characteristics, SES, SCS, incidence rates, and predictors of suicidal behaviors were measured via structured instruments. Simple and multiple logistic regressions were used to estimate crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results A total of 853 SAs (32 suicides and 821 attempts) were identified during the study. Trend analysis revealed that the suicide rate significantly decreased from 2014 (10.28) to 2018 (1.75) per 100,000. In the final multiple variable models, age (26–40), male sex, unemployment, antisocial activities, history of SA, hanging method, and season (spring) increased the suicide risk while religious commitment had protective effects on suicide. Conclusions Our findings indicated that demographic characteristics, low SES, and SCS are associated with suicide. In this county, trend of suicide and SA were decreased from 2014 to 2018. This study findings highlight the need to consider a wide range of contextual variables, socio-demographic, SES, and SCS in suicide prevention strategies. Improving inter-sectoral collaborations and policymakers’ attitudes are imperative for SA reduction.


2015 ◽  
Vol 113 (01) ◽  
pp. 185-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun-Cheng Wang ◽  
Cheng-Li Lin ◽  
Guei-Jane Wang ◽  
Chiz-Tzung Chang ◽  
Fung-Chang Sung ◽  
...  

SummaryWhether atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) remains controversial. From Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2000 (LHID2000), we identified 11,458 patients newly diagnosed with AF. The comparison group comprised 45,637 patients without AF. Both cohorts were followed up to measure the incidence of deep-vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE). Univariable and multivariable competing-risks regression model and Kaplan-Meier analyses with the use of Aelon-Johansen estimator were used to measure the differences of cumulative incidences of DVT and PE, respectively. The overall incidence rates (per 1,000 person-years) of DVT and PE between the AF group and non-AF groups were 2.69 vs 1.12 (crude hazard ratio [HR] = 1.92; 95 % confidence interval [CI] = 1.54-2.39), 1.55 vs 0.46 (crude HR = 2.68; 95 % CI = 1.97-3.64), respectively. The baseline demographics indicated that the members of the AF group demonstrated a significantly older age and higher proportions of comorbidities than non-AF group. After adjusting for age, sex, and comorbidities, the risks of DVT and PE remained significantly elevated in the AF group compared with the non-AF group (adjusted HR = 1.74; 95 %CI = 1.36-2.24, adjusted HR = 2.18; 95 %CI = 1.51-3.15, respectively). The Kaplan-Meier curve with the use of Aelon-Johansen estimator indicated that the cumulative incidences of DVT and PE were both more significantly elevated in the AF group than in the non-AF group after a long-term follow-up period (p<0.01). In conclusion, the presence of AF is associated with increased risk of VTE after a long-term follow-up period.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (14) ◽  
pp. 3116
Author(s):  
Florence Lai ◽  
Nathaniel Mercaldo ◽  
Cassandra M. Wang ◽  
Giovi G. Hersch ◽  
Herminia Diana Rosas

Adults with Down syndrome (DS) have an exceptionally high prevalence of Alzheimer disease (AD), with an earlier age of onset compared with the neurotypical population. In addition to beta amyloid, immunological processes involved in neuroinflammation and in peripheral inflammatory/autoimmune conditions are thought to play important roles in the pathophysiology of AD. Individuals with DS also have a high prevalence of autoimmune/inflammatory conditions which may contribute to an increased risk of early AD onset, but this has not been studied. Given the wide range in the age of AD onset in those with DS, we sought to evaluate the relationship between the presence of inflammatory conditions and the age of AD onset. We performed a retrospective study on 339 adults with DS, 125 who were cognitively stable (CS) and 214 with a diagnosis of AD. Data were available for six autoimmune conditions (alopecia, celiac disease, hypothyroidism, psoriasis, diabetes and vitamin B12 deficiency) and for one inflammatory condition, gout. Gout was associated with a significant delay in the age of AD onset by more than 2.5 years. Our data suggests that inflammatory conditions may play a role in the age of AD onset in DS. Further studies are warranted.


PEDIATRICS ◽  
1985 ◽  
Vol 76 (5) ◽  
pp. 741-749
Author(s):  
Thomas B. Newman

To investigate the recent 150% increase in the reported incidence of ventricular septal defects (VSDs) in the United States, the epidemiology of ventricular septal defects was examined. The apparent incidence of VSDs is highly dependent on case finding methods, and more complete diagnosis and reporting probably account for the increase in reported incidence. Variations in case ascertainment also account for the small differences in incidence in studies from different places. The several known risk factors for VSD, including a family history of congenital heart disease and exposure to certain drugs, infectious agents, and maternal metabolic disturbances, explain few cases. Incidence rates are similar in different races and seasons and are unrelated to maternal age, birth order, sex, and socioeconomic status. VSDs occur naturally in a wide range of mammals and in birds, which also have four-chambered hearts. Despite identical genes and similar prenatal environments, the concordance rate in identical twins is only about 10%. The consistency of incidence among individuals with widely differing genes and environments and the frequency of discordance in identical twins suggest that VSDs often occur as random errors in development, at a frequency largely determined by the complexity of normal cardiac morphogenesis. This hypothesis has two major implications: many VSDs are not preventable and parents need not feel responsible for VSDs in their children.


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