scholarly journals Dynamic analysis and evaluation of asymptomatic infection in the spread of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuanqing Xu ◽  
Zonghao Zhang ◽  
Xiaotong Huang ◽  
Jingan Cui
Keyword(s):  
Recovery Period ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Symptomatic Infection ◽  
Actual Case ◽  
Analysis And Evaluation ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Asymptomatic Infections ◽  
Epidemic Development ◽  
Short Time

AbstractCOVID-19 has spread worldwide for nearly two years. Many countries have experienced repeated epidemics, that is, after the epidemic has been controlled for a period of time, the number of new cases per day is low, and the outbreak will occur again a few months later. In order to study the relationship between this low level of infection and the number of asymptomatic infections, and to evaluate the role of asymptomatic infections in the development of the epidemic, we have established an improved infectious disease dynamics model that can be used to evaluate the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, and fitted the epidemic data in the three flat periods in England. According to the obtained parameters, according to the calculation of the model, the proportion of asymptomatic infections in these three flat periods are 41%, 53% and 58% respectively. After the first flat period, the number of daily newly confirmed cases predicted by the model began to increase around July 1, 2020. After more than four months of epidemic spread, it reached a peak on November 12, which is consistent with the actual case situation. Unanimous. After the second flat period, the model predicts that the number of new confirmed cases per day will increase from about May 7, 2021, and after about 73 days of epidemic development, it will reach a peak on July 20, showing the overall trend of the epidemic. In the above, the predicted results of the model are consistent with the actual cases. After the third flat period, the number of daily newly diagnosed cases predicted by the model began to increase around December 1, 2021, and reached a peak in December, and the number of cases will drop to a very low level after May 2022. According to our research results, due to the large number of asymptomatic infections, the spread of the epidemic is not easy to stop completely in a short time. However, when the epidemic enters a period of flat time, nucleic acid testing is performed, and asymptomatic infections are isolated at home for 14 days (the recovery period of symptomatic infection is about 10 days) may be an option that can be considered to interrupt the transmission of the case.

scholarly journals Mathematical Model of the Role of Asymptomatic Infection in Outbreaks of Some Emerging Pathogens

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 184
Author(s):  
Nourridine Siewe ◽  
Bradford Greening ◽  
Nina H. Fefferman
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Emerging Diseases ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Disease Dynamics ◽  
Emerging Pathogens ◽  
Hypothetical Scenario ◽  
Asymptomatic Infections

Preparation for outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases is often predicated on beliefs that we will be able to understand the epidemiological nature of an outbreak early into its inception. However, since many rare emerging diseases exhibit different epidemiological behaviors from outbreak to outbreak, early and accurate estimation of the epidemiological situation may not be straightforward in all cases. Previous studies have proposed considering the role of active asymptomatic infections co-emerging and co-circulating as part of the process of emergence of a novel pathogen. Thus far, consideration of the role of asymptomatic infections in emerging disease dynamics have usually avoided considering some important sets of influences. In this paper, we present and analyze a mathematical model to explore the hypothetical scenario that some (re)emerging diseases may actually be able to maintain stable, endemic circulation successfully in an entirely asymptomatic state. We argue that an understanding of this potential mechanism for diversity in observed epidemiological dynamics may be of considerable importance in understanding and preparing for outbreaks of novel and/or emerging diseases.

scholarly journals Serum Cytokine Responses over the Entire Clinical-Immunological Spectrum of HumanLeishmania (L.) infantum chagasiInfection

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrícia Karla Ramos ◽  
Karina Inácio Carvalho ◽  
Daniela Santoro Rosa ◽  
Ana Paula Rodrigues ◽  
Luciana Vieira Lima ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Serum Levels ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Serum Cytokine ◽  
Symptomatic Infection ◽  
Serum Cytokines ◽  
Resistant Infection ◽  
Positive Correlations ◽  
Amazonian Brazil

The clinical-immunological spectrum of humanLeishmania (L.) infantum chagasiinfection in Amazonian Brazil was recently reviewed based on clinical, DTH, and IFAT (IgG) evaluations that identified five profiles: three asymptomatic (asymptomatic infection, AI; subclinical resistant infection, SRI; and indeterminate initial infection, III) and two symptomatic (symptomatic infection, SI; American visceral leishmaniasis, AVL; and subclinical oligosymptomatic infection, SOI). TNF-α, IL-4, IL-6, and IL-10 serum cytokines were analyzed using multiplexed Cytometric Bead Array in 161 samples from endemic areas in the Brazilian Amazon: SI [AVL] (21 cases), III (49), SRI (19), SOI (12), AI (36), and a control group [CG] (24). The highest IL-6 serum levels were observed in the SI profile (AVL); higher IL-10 serum levels were observed in SI than in SOI or CG and in AI and III than in SOI; higher TNF-αserum levels were seen in SI than in CG. Positive correlations were found between IL-6 and IL-10 serum levels in the SI and III profiles and between IL-6 and TNF-αand between IL-4 and TNF-αin the III profile. These results provide strong evidence for associating IL-6 and IL-10 with the immunopathogenesis of AVL and help clarify the role of these cytokines in the infection spectrum.

Tryptophan-Niacin Metabolism in Rat with Puromycin Aminonucleoside-Induced Nephrosis

2006 ◽  
Vol 76 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yukari Egashira ◽  
Shin Nagaki ◽  
Hiroo Sanada
Keyword(s):  
Body Weight ◽  
Urinary Excretion ◽  
Enzyme Activities ◽  
Treated Group ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Puromycin Aminonucleoside ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Key Enzyme

We investigated the change of tryptophan-niacin metabolism in rats with puromycin aminonucleoside PAN-induced nephrosis, the mechanisms responsible for their change of urinary excretion of nicotinamide and its metabolites, and the role of the kidney in tryptophan-niacin conversion. PAN-treated rats were intraperitoneally injected once with a 1.0% (w/v) solution of PAN at a dose of 100 mg/kg body weight. The collection of 24-hour urine was conducted 8 days after PAN injection. Daily urinary excretion of nicotinamide and its metabolites, liver and blood NAD, and key enzyme activities of tryptophan-niacin metabolism were determined. In PAN-treated rats, the sum of urinary excretion of nicotinamide and its metabolites was significantly lower compared with controls. The kidneyα-amino-β-carboxymuconate-ε-semialdehyde decarboxylase (ACMSD) activity in the PAN-treated group was significantly decreased by 50%, compared with the control group. Although kidney ACMSD activity was reduced, the conversion of tryptophan to niacin tended to be lower in the PAN-treated rats. A decrease in urinary excretion of niacin and the conversion of tryptophan to niacin in nephrotic rats may contribute to a low level of blood tryptophan. The role of kidney ACMSD activity may be minimal concerning tryptophan-niacin conversion under this experimental condition.

ROLE OF LIPID PROFILE IN OVARIAN CARCINOMA PATIENTS

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dr. Manisha ◽  
Dr. Ruchi Jindal
Keyword(s):  
Ovarian Cancer ◽  
Lipid Profile ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Ovarian Tumor ◽  
Ovarian Cancer Risk ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Medical College ◽  
Group I ◽  
History Of

Background: The term "ovarian cancer" includes several different types of cancer that  arise from cells of the ovary, most commonly, tumors arise from the epithelium or lining cells of the ovary.  Ovarian cancer risk is positively associated with higher consumption of dietary cholesterol and eggs, and inversely associated with a higher intake of vegetables. High consumption of fats may increase circulating estrogen levels, thus increasing the possibility of cell damage and proliferation that is responsible for cancerous growth. Material & Methods: The present study was conducted at Geetanjali Medical College and Hospital, Udaipur (Rajasthan). Total  100 cases (females) attending the obstetrics and gynecology department for some gynecological and other problem  were selected for this study between the age of 40-60 years, who were attending cancer centre at GEETANJALI MEDICAL COLLEGE AND  HOSPITAL, Udaipur (Rajasthan).                GROUP I: - It consisted of healthy females control subjects (n=50) .By routine examination and tests, we ensured that all the subjects were healthy and there were no signs and symptoms or history of ovarian tumor and diseases GROUP II: - It consisted of ovarian cancer females subjects (n=50) with a history of ovarian tumor. Results:   Higher level of cholesterol, LDL, VLDL and low level of HDL are found in ovarian cancer patients. Conclusion: The present study we highlights the importance and role of serum lipid profile in diagnosis, prognosis and recurrence of the disease. The study shows that serum level of cholesterol, LDL, VLDL was elevated in  patients of ovarian cancer while low level of HDL are found in ovarian cancer patients. Key words: lipid profile, ovarian cancer.

scholarly journals Waterlogging-Stress-Responsive LncRNAs, Their Regulatory Relationships with MiRNAs and Target Genes in Cucumber (Cucumis sativus L.)

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (15) ◽  
pp. 8197
Author(s):  
Kinga Kęska ◽  
Michał Wojciech Szcześniak ◽  
Adela Adamus ◽  
Małgorzata Czernicka
Keyword(s):  
Target Genes ◽  
Recovery Period ◽  
Sufficient Information ◽  
Low Oxygen ◽  
Waterlogging Tolerance ◽  
Cucumis Sativus L ◽  
Waterlogging Stress ◽  
Non Coding Rna

Low oxygen level is a phenomenon often occurring during the cucumber cultivation period. Genes involved in adaptations to stress can be regulated by non-coding RNA. The aim was the identification of long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) involved in the response to long-term waterlogging stress in two cucumber haploid lines, i.e., DH2 (waterlogging tolerant—WL-T) and DH4 (waterlogging sensitive—WL-S). Plants, at the juvenile stage, were waterlogged for 7 days (non-primed, 1xH), and after a 14-day recovery period, plants were stressed again for another 7 days (primed, 2xH). Roots were collected for high-throughput RNA sequencing. Implementation of the bioinformatic pipeline made it possible to determine specific lncRNAs for non-primed and primed plants of both accessions, highlighting differential responses to hypoxia stress. In total, 3738 lncRNA molecules were identified. The highest number (1476) of unique lncRNAs was determined for non-primed WL-S plants. Seventy-one lncRNAs were depicted as potentially being involved in acquiring tolerance to hypoxia in cucumber. Understanding the mechanism of gene regulation under long-term waterlogging by lncRNAs and their interactions with miRNAs provides sufficient information in terms of adaptation to the oxygen deprivation in cucumber. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report concerning the role of lncRNAs in the regulation of long-term waterlogging tolerance by priming application in cucumber.

scholarly journals Impact of tumor-parenchyma biomechanics on liver metastatic progression: a multi-model approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yafei Wang ◽  
Erik Brodin ◽  
Kenichiro Nishii ◽  
Hermann B. Frieboes ◽  
Shannon M. Mumenthaler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Constitutive Relations ◽  
Elastic Tissue ◽  
Metastatic Progression ◽  
Patient Death ◽  
Metastatic Growth ◽  
Tumor Parenchyma ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Model Approach

AbstractColorectal cancer and other cancers often metastasize to the liver in later stages of the disease, contributing significantly to patient death. While the biomechanical properties of the liver parenchyma (normal liver tissue) are known to affect tumor cell behavior in primary and metastatic tumors, the role of these properties in driving or inhibiting metastatic inception remains poorly understood, as are the longer-term multicellular dynamics. This study adopts a multi-model approach to study the dynamics of tumor-parenchyma biomechanical interactions during metastatic seeding and growth. We employ a detailed poroviscoelastic model of a liver lobule to study how micrometastases disrupt flow and pressure on short time scales. Results from short-time simulations in detailed single hepatic lobules motivate constitutive relations and biological hypotheses for a minimal agent-based model of metastatic growth in centimeter-scale tissue over months-long time scales. After a parameter space investigation, we find that the balance of basic tumor-parenchyma biomechanical interactions on shorter time scales (adhesion, repulsion, and elastic tissue deformation over minutes) and longer time scales (plastic tissue relaxation over hours) can explain a broad range of behaviors of micrometastases, without the need for complex molecular-scale signaling. These interactions may arrest the growth of micrometastases in a dormant state and prevent newly arriving cancer cells from establishing successful metastatic foci. Moreover, the simulations indicate ways in which dormant tumors could “reawaken” after changes in parenchymal tissue mechanical properties, as may arise during aging or following acute liver illness or injury. We conclude that the proposed modeling approach yields insight into the role of tumor-parenchyma biomechanics in promoting liver metastatic growth, and advances the longer term goal of identifying conditions to clinically arrest and reverse the course of late-stage cancer.

scholarly journals COVID-19: systematic learning across boundaries requires a conceptual agreement

2021 ◽  
pp. 140349482110270
Author(s):  
Knut Ole Sundnes ◽  
Geir Sverre Braut
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Knowledge Base ◽  
External Validity ◽  
Evaluation Research ◽  
The Other ◽  
Basic Knowledge ◽  
Early Publication ◽  
Number Of Publications ◽  
Short Time

The COVID-19 epidemic has revealed a shortage of basic knowledge and understanding of pandemics, especially regarding their dynamics and how to contain them. The results are a host of governments’ decrees and instructions, one replacing the other, often within the same week. It has further, in a truly short time, resulted in an overwhelming number of publications, many of them prioritising early publication over quality. This commentary addresses the concept of structured research related to disasters and how the use of endorsed guidelines will facilitate well-designed evaluation research with improved rigour and external validity, even if applied retrospectively. The outcome should be a solidified knowledge base. Further, the important role of public health efforts is to be highlighted, as their role has proved crucial during the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Where to go to in chlamydia control? From infection control towards infectious disease control

2021 ◽  
pp. sextrans-2021-054992
Author(s):  
Jan E A M van Bergen ◽  
Bernice Maria Hoenderboom ◽  
Silke David ◽  
Febe Deug ◽  
Janneke C M Heijne ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chlamydia Infection ◽  
Limited Evidence ◽  
Future Directions ◽  
Tubal Factor Infertility ◽  
Effectiveness Analysis ◽  
Population Prevalence ◽  
Tubal Factor ◽  
Health Relevance ◽  
Asymptomatic Infections

ObjectivesThe clinical and public health relevance of widespread case finding by testing for asymptomatic chlamydia infections is under debate. We wanted to explore future directions for chlamydia control and generate insights that might guide for evidence-based strategies. In particular, we wanted to know the extent to which we should pursue testing for asymptomatic infections at both genital and extragenital sites.MethodsWe synthesised findings from published literature and from discussions among national and international chlamydia experts during an invitational workshop. We described changing perceptions in chlamydia control to inform the development of recommendations for future avenues for chlamydia control in the Netherlands.ResultsDespite implementing a range of interventions to control chlamydia, there is no practice-based evidence that population prevalence can be reduced by screening programmes or widespread opportunistic testing. There is limited evidence about the beneficial effect of testing on pelvic inflammatory disease prevention. The risk of tubal factor infertility resulting from chlamydia infection is low and evidence on the preventable fraction remains uncertain. Overdiagnosis and overtreatment with antibiotics for self-limiting and non-viable infections have contributed to antimicrobial resistance in other pathogens and may affect oral, anal and genital microbiota. These changing insights could affect the outcome of previous cost–effectiveness analysis.ConclusionThe balance between benefits and harms of widespread testing to detect asymptomatic chlamydia infections is changing. The opinion of our expert group deviates from the existing paradigm of ‘test and treat’ and suggests that future strategies should reduce, rather than expand, the role of widespread testing for asymptomatic chlamydia infections.

scholarly journals Pain therapy to reduce perioperative complications

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 158-166
Author(s):  
Stephan M. Freys ◽  
Esther Pogatzki-Zahn
Keyword(s):  
Postoperative Pain ◽  
Postoperative Complications ◽  
Adverse Events ◽  
Acute Pain ◽  
Surgical Procedure ◽  
Pain Therapy ◽  
Recovery Period ◽  
Acute Pain Therapy

AbstractThe incidence rates of adverse events secondary to any operation are a well-known problem in any surgical field. One outstanding example of such adverse events is postoperative pain. Thus, the incidence of acute postoperative pain following any surgical procedure and its treatment are central issues for every surgeon. In the times of Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) programs, acute pain therapy became an increasingly well investigated and accepted aspect in almost all surgical subspecialties. However, if it comes to the reduction of postoperative complications, in the actual context of postoperative pain, surgeons tend to focus on the operative process rather than on the perioperative procedures. Undoubtedly, postoperative pain became an important factor with regard to the quality of surgical care: both, the extent and the quality of the surgical procedure and the extent and the quality of the analgesic technique are decisive issues for a successful pain management. There is growing evidence that supports the role of acute pain therapy in reducing postoperative morbidity, and it has been demonstrated that high pain scores postoperatively may contribute to a complicated postoperative course. This overview comprises the current knowledge on the role of acute pain therapy with regard to the occurrence of postoperative complications. Most of the knowledge is derived from studies that primarily focus on the type and quality of postoperative pain therapy in relation to specific surgical procedures and only secondary on complications. As far as existent, data that report on the recovery period after surgery, on the rehabilitation status, on perioperative morbidity, on the development of chronic pain after surgery, and on possible solutions of the latter problem with the institution of transitional pain services will be presented.

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