scholarly journals Successive Bloodmeals Enhance Virus Dissemination Within Mosquitoes And Increase Transmission Potential

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip M. Armstrong ◽  
Hanna Ehrlich ◽  
Angela Bransfield ◽  
Joshua L. Warren ◽  
Virginia E. Pitzer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vector Competence ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
The Public ◽  
Virus Dissemination ◽  
Virus Escape ◽  
Extrinsic Incubation Period ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Transmission Status

SUMMARY PARAGRAPHThe recent Zika virus (ZIKV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) epidemics highlight the explosive nature of arthropod-borne (arbo) viruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes1,2. Vector competence and the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) are two key entomological parameters used to assess the public health risk posed by arboviruses3. These are typically measured empirically by offering mosquitoes an infectious bloodmeal and temporally sampling mosquitoes to determine infection and transmission status. This approach has been used for the better part of a century; however, it does not accurately capture the biology and behavior of many mosquito vectors which refeed frequently (every 2-3 days)4. Here we demonstrate that administration of a second non-infectious bloodmeal significantly shortens the EIP of ZIKV-infected Ae. aegypti by enhancing virus escape from the mosquito midgut. Similarly, a second bloodmeal increased the competence of this species for dengue virus and CHIKV. This effect was also observed for ZIKV in Aedes albopictus, suggesting that this species might be a more important vector than once thought and that this phenomenon may be common among other virus-vector pairings. Modeling of these findings reveals that a shortened EIP would result in a significant increase in the basic reproductive number, R0. This increase helps explain how Ae.aegypti can sustain an explosive epidemic like ZIKV despite its relatively poor vector competence in single-feed laboratory trials. Together, these data demonstrate a direct and unrecognized link between mosquito feeding behavior, EIP, and vector competence.

scholarly journals Understanding the effect of temperature on Bluetongue disease risk in livestock

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fadoua El Moustaid ◽  
Zorian Thronton ◽  
Hani Slamani ◽  
Sadie J. Ryan ◽  
Leah R. Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Disease Risk ◽  
Vector Competence ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Temperature Sensitive ◽  
Modeling Tools ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Thermal Range ◽  
Vector Borne

AbstractThe transmission of vector-borne diseases is governed by complex factors including pathogen characteristics, vector-host interactions, and environmental conditions. Temperature is a major driver for many vector-borne diseases including Bluetongue viral (BTV) disease, a midge-borne febrile disease of ruminants, notably livestock, whose etiology ranges from mild or asymptomatic to rapidly fatal, thus threatening animal agriculture and the economy of affected countries. Using modeling tools, we seek to predict where transmission can occur based on suitable temperatures for BTV. We fit thermal performance curves to temperature sensitive midge life history traits, using a Bayesian approach. Then, we incorporated these into a new formula for the disease basic reproductive number, R0, to include trait responses, for two species of key midge vectors, Culicoides sonorensis and Culicoides variipennis. Our results show that outbreaks of BTV are more likely between 15°C and 33°C with predicted peak transmission at 26°C. The greatest uncertainty in R0 is associated with the uncertainty in: mortality and fecundity of midges near optimal temperature for transmission; midges’ probability of becoming infectious post infection at the lower edge of the thermal range; and the biting rate together with vector competence at the higher edge of the thermal range. We compare our R0 to two other R0 formulations and show that incorporating thermal curves into all three leads to similar BTV risk predictions. To demonstrate the utility of this model approach, we created global suitability maps indicating the areas at high and long-term risk of BTV transmission, to assess risk, and anticipate potential locations of establishment.

Transmission dynamics of primary pneumonic plague in the USA

2011 ◽  
Vol 140 (3) ◽  
pp. 554-560 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. F. HINCKLEY ◽  
B. J. BIGGERSTAFF ◽  
K. S. GRIFFITH ◽  
P. S. MEAD
Keyword(s):  
Severe Form ◽  
Antimicrobial Treatment ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Pneumonic Plague ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Using Data

SUMMARYPlague is thought to have killed millions during three catastrophic pandemics. Primary pneumonic plague, the most severe form of the disease, is transmissible from person-to-person and has the potential for propagating epidemics. Efforts to quantify its transmission potential have relied on published data from large outbreaks, an approach that artificially inflates the basic reproductive number (R0) and skews the distribution of individual infectiousness. Using data for all primary pneumonic plague cases reported in the USA from 1900 to 2009, we determined that the majority of cases will fail to transmit, even in the absence of antimicrobial treatment or prophylaxis. Nevertheless, potential for sustained outbreaks still exists due to superspreading events. These findings challenge current concepts regarding primary pneumonic plague transmission.

scholarly journals Transmission dynamics of SARS-COV-2 in China: impact of public health interventions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenbao Wang ◽  
Yiqin Chen ◽  
Qi Wang ◽  
Ping Cai ◽  
Ye He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
The Public ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Actual Growth ◽  
Global Threat ◽  
The Impact

AbstractCOVID-19 has become a global pandemic. However, the impact of the public health interventions in China needs to be evaluated. We established a SEIRD model to simulate the transmission trend of China. In addition, the reduction of the reproductive number was estimated under the current forty public health interventions policies. Furthermore, the infection curve, daily transmission replication curve, and the trend of cumulative confirmed cases were used to evaluate the effects of the public health interventions. Our results showed that the SEIRD curve model we established had a good fit and the basic reproductive number is 3.38 (95% CI, 3.25–3.48). The SEIRD curve show a small difference between the simulated number of cases and the actual number; the correlation index (H2) is 0.934, and the reproductive number (R) has been reduced from 3.38 to 0.5 under the current forty public health interventions policies of China. The actual growth curve of new cases, the virus infection curve, and the daily transmission replication curve were significantly going down under the current public health interventions. Our results suggest that the current public health interventions of China are effective and should be maintained until COVID-19 is no longer considered a global threat.

scholarly journals Predicting temperature-dependent transmission suitability of bluetongue virus in livestock

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fadoua El Moustaid ◽  
Zorian Thornton ◽  
Hani Slamani ◽  
Sadie J. Ryan ◽  
Leah R. Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Vector Competence ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Temperature Sensitive ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Modeling Tools ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Thermal Range ◽  
Vector Borne

AbstractThe transmission of vector-borne diseases is governed by complex factors including pathogen characteristics, vector–host interactions, and environmental conditions. Temperature is a major driver for many vector-borne diseases including Bluetongue viral (BTV) disease, a midge-borne febrile disease of ruminants, notably livestock, whose etiology ranges from mild or asymptomatic to rapidly fatal, thus threatening animal agriculture and the economy of affected countries. Using modeling tools, we seek to predict where the transmission can occur based on suitable temperatures for BTV. We fit thermal performance curves to temperature-sensitive midge life-history traits, using a Bayesian approach. We incorporate these curves into S(T), a transmission suitability metric derived from the disease’s basic reproductive number, $$R_0.$$ R 0 . This suitability metric encompasses all components that are known to be temperature-dependent. We use trait responses for two species of key midge vectors, Culicoides sonorensis and Culicoides variipennis present in North America. Our results show that outbreaks of BTV are more likely between 15$$^{\circ }$$ ∘ C and $$34^{\circ }\hbox { C}$$ 34 ∘ C , with predicted peak transmission risk at 26 $$^\circ$$ ∘  C. The greatest uncertainty in S(T) is associated with the following: the uncertainty in mortality and fecundity of midges near optimal temperature for transmission; midges’ probability of becoming infectious post-infection at the lower edge of the thermal range; and the biting rate together with vector competence at the higher edge of the thermal range. We compare three model formulations and show that incorporating thermal curves into all three leads to similar BTV risk predictions. To demonstrate the utility of this modeling approach, we created global suitability maps indicating the areas at high and long-term risk of BTV transmission, to assess risk and to anticipate potential locations of disease establishment.

scholarly journals Rubella vaccination in India: identifying broad consequences of vaccine introduction and key knowledge gaps

2017 ◽  
Vol 146 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. K. WINTER ◽  
S. PRAMANIK ◽  
J. LESSLER ◽  
M. FERRARI ◽  
B. T. GRENFELL ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Vaccination Programme ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Childhood Vaccination ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Indian States ◽  
The Public ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYRubella virus infection typically presents as a mild illness in children; however, infection during pregnancy may cause the birth of an infant with congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). As of February 2017, India began introducing rubella-containing vaccine (RCV) into the public-sector childhood vaccination programme. Low-level RCV coverage among children over several years can result in an increase in CRS incidence by increasing the average age of infection without sufficiently reducing rubella incidence. We evaluated the impact of RCV introduction on CRS incidence across India's heterogeneous demographic and epidemiological contexts. We used a deterministic age-structured model that reflects Indian states’ rural and urban area-specific demography and vaccination coverage levels to simulate rubella dynamics and estimate CRS incidence with and without RCV introduction to the public sector. Our analysis suggests that current low-level private-sector vaccination has already slightly increased the burden of CRS in India. We additionally found that the effect of public-sector RCV introduction depends on the basic reproductive number, R0, of rubella. If R0 is five, a value empirically estimated from an array of settings, CRS incidence post-RCV introduction will likely decrease. However, if R0 is seven or nine, some states may experience short-term or annual increases in CRS, even if a long-term total reduction in cases (30 years) is expected. Investment in population-based serological surveys and India's fever/rash surveillance system will be key to monitoring the success of the vaccination programme.

scholarly journals Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a mid-size city of China

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongjun Zhao ◽  
Xiaoxiao Lu ◽  
Wenhui Lun ◽  
Tiegang Li ◽  
Boqi Rao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Case Series ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
The Public ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Asymptomatic Patients ◽  
History Of ◽  
Multifaceted Interventions ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

Abstract Background An outbreak of pneumonia, COVID-19 associated with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in Wuhan city and then rapidly spread to other cities. Wenzhou is located approximately 900 km from Wuhan, which was experiencing an outbreak that was severe at the time but is considered modest as the epidemic became a pandemic. We described the epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 outside of the epicenter to help understand the transmission pattern in a mid-sized Chinese city. Methods To investigate the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the COVID-19, we described case series of 473 patients with confirmed COVID-19 in Wenzhou, China from January 27 to March 16, 2020. We described the public health interventions of COVID-19 and evaluated the effect of interventions by the effective reproduction number (Rt). Results The median age of all patients was 47.6 years, 48.4% of whom were female. 33.8% of the patients had a history of residence in Wuhan. Fever (71.7%) and cough (43.1%) were the most common symptoms. In addition, three kinds of unconventional cases were observed, namely 4.9% asymptomatic patients, 7.6% confirmed patients who had no link to Wuhan city but contact with individuals from Wuhan without any symptoms at the time of contact, and 12.9% confirmed patients who had an unknown source of transmission. We estimated that the basic reproductive number (R0) was 2.75 (95% CI: 2.37–3.23). The Rt fluctuated within the range of 2.50 to 3.74 from January 11 to January 16 while gradually reached a peak of 3.74 on January 16. Rt gradually decreased after January 16 and decreased to 1.00 on January 30. Rt continually decreased and reached the lowest point (0.03) on February 21, 2020. Conclusion Our study presented the possibility of asymptomatic carriers affected with SARS-CoV-2, and transmission by these three kinds of unconventional patients in Wenzhou may be an important characteristic of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. The evaluation showed that a series of multifaceted interventions proved effective in controlling the epidemic of COVID-19. These findings might provide valuable examples of control policies for countries or areas in combatting the global pandemic of COVID-19.

scholarly journals The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Sanche ◽  
Yen Ting Lin ◽  
Chonggang Xu ◽  
Ethan Romero-Severson ◽  
Nick Hengartner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Case Reports ◽  
Individual Case ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Strong Control

AbstractThe novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.One-sentence summaryBy collecting and analyzing spatiotemporal data, we estimated the transmission potential for 2019-nCoV.

scholarly journals Internal versus external determinants of Schistosoma japonicum transmission in irrigated agricultural villages

2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (67) ◽  
pp. 272-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert C. Spear
Keyword(s):  
Retrospective Analysis ◽  
Surface Waters ◽  
Human Infection ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Free Swimming ◽  
Rural Infrastructure ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Limited Sensitivity

Currently schistosomiasis transmission has been suppressed to low levels in many historically endemic areas of China by widespread use of praziquantel in human and bovine populations and application of niclosamide for snail control. However, re-emergent transmission has signalled the need for sustainable interventions beyond these repeated chemical interventions. To take advantage of ongoing investment in rural infrastructure, an index of schistosomiasis transmission potential is needed to identify villages where environmental modifications would be particularly effective. Based on a retrospective analysis of data from 10 villages in Sichuan Province, an index linked to the basic reproductive number is shown to have promise in meeting this need. However, a lack of methods for estimating the spatial components of the proposed metric and for estimating the import of cercariae and miracidia from neighbouring villages leads to significant uncertainty in its estimation. These findings suggest a priority effort to develop methods for measuring the free-swimming forms of the parasite in surface waters. This need is underscored by the high cost and limited sensitivity of current methods for diagnosing human infection and mounting evidence of the inadequacy of snail surveys to identify environments supporting low levels of transmission.

scholarly journals Spatially Adjusted Time-varying Reproductive Numbers: Understanding the Geographical Expansion of Urban Dengue Outbreaks

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ta-Chou Ng ◽  
Tzai-Hung Wen
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Heterogeneity ◽  
New Method ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Severe Dengue ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Dengue Transmission ◽  
Dengue Outbreaks

AbstractThe basic reproductive number (R0) is a fundamental measure used to quantify the transmission potential of an epidemic in public health practice. However, R0 cannot reflect the time-varying nature of an epidemic. A time-varying effective reproductive number Rt can provide more information because it tracks the subsequent evolution of transmission. However, since it neglects individual-level geographical variations in exposure risk, Rt may smooth out interpersonal heterogeneous transmission potential, obscure high-risk spreaders, and hence hamper the effectiveness of control measures in spatial dimension. Therefore, this study proposes a new method for quantifying spatially adjusted (time-varying) reproductive numbers that reflects spatial heterogeneity in transmission potential among individuals. This new method estimates individual-level effective reproductive numbers (Rj) and a summarized indicator for population-level time-varying reproductive number (Rt). Data from the five most severe dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998–2015 were used to demonstrate the ability of the method to highlight early spreaders contributing to the geographic expansion of dengue transmission. Our results show spatial heterogeneity in the transmission potential of dengue among individuals and identify the spreaders with the highest Rj during the epidemic period. The results also reveal that super-spreaders are usually early spreaders that locate at the edges of the epidemic foci, which means that these cases could be the drivers of the expansion of the outbreak. Therefore, our proposed method depicts a more detailed spatial-temporal dengue transmission process and identifies the significant role of the edges of the epidemic foci, which could be weak spots in disease control and prevention.

scholarly journals Assessing the potential risk of Zika virus epidemics in temperate areas with established Aedes albopictus populations

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (15) ◽  
Author(s):  
Giorgio Guzzetta ◽  
Piero Poletti ◽  
Fabrizio Montarsi ◽  
Frederic Baldacchino ◽  
Gioia Capelli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Aedes Albopictus ◽  
Potential Risk ◽  
Zika Virus ◽  
Vector Competence ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Epidemic Threshold ◽  
Oceanic Climate ◽  
Mosquito Infection

Based on 2015 abundance of Aedes albopictus in nine northern Italian municipalities with temperate continental/oceanic climate, we estimated the basic reproductive number R0 for Zika virus (ZIKV) to be systematically below the epidemic threshold in most scenarios. Results were sensitive to the value of the probability of mosquito infection after biting a viraemic host. Therefore, further studies are required to improve models and predictions, namely evaluating vector competence and potential non-vector transmissions.

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