Occupational mobility over the business cycle

2014 ◽  
Vol 35 (6) ◽  
pp. 873-897 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liis Roosaar ◽  
Pille Mõtsmees ◽  
Urmas Varblane
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Occupational Mobility ◽  
Lower Probability ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Occupational Change ◽  
Interaction Terms ◽  
The Business Cycle

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine how occupational mobility varies over the business cycle and how selected factors contribute to occupational mobility in different stages of the business cycle. Design/methodology/approach – Using annual micro data from the Estonian Labour Force Survey (2001-2010) and implementing probit models with interaction terms, the paper investigates occupational mobility as a change of occupation in two successive years during recovery, boom and recession periods. Findings – The analysis indicates that occupational mobility is higher during the recovery and boom periods and lower during the recession stage. The demographic characteristics (gender, marital status, knowledge of local language) influence the probability for occupational change during the recovery stage of the business cycle. The position of employees in the occupational hierarchy is significant during the recovery and boom periods. Employees working in the public sector have a lower probability for occupational change compared with private sector employees during the recession. Training has a positive effect on occupational mobility during recession. Tenure reduces the probability of occupational mobility over the whole business cycle. Originality/value – The paper contributes to the literature by providing new results about the role of different factors of occupational mobility over the business cycle. This is among the few studies addressing the variation in the occupational mobility of employees from the public and private sectors. Interactions between the position of the employees in the occupational hierarchy and the ownership form of their employers and the economic sectors add to the understanding about the mechanism of occupational mobility over the business cycle stages.

Government spending shocks and economic growth: additional evidence from cyclical behavior of fiscal policy

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olumide Olusegun Olaoye ◽  
Ukafor Ukafor Okorie ◽  
Oluwatosin Odunayo Eluwole ◽  
Mahmood Butt Fawwad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
The State ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Spending Shocks ◽  
The Business Cycle

PurposeThis study examines the asymmetric effect of government spending on economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1980–2017. Specifically, this study investigates whether the response of economic growth to government spending shocks differs according to the nature of shocks on them. In addition, the authors examine whether the stabilizing effects of fiscal policies are dependent on the state of the business cycle.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopts the linear fiscal reaction function in addition to the nonlinear regression model of Hatemi-J (2011, 2012), Granger and Yoon (2002), which allows us to separate negative shocks from positive shocks to government spending. Similarly, the authors adopt the generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques of Hansen (1982) to account for simultaneity and endogeneity problems inherent in dynamic model.FindingsThe authors’ findings reveal that there is evidence of asymmetry in the government spending–economic growth nexus in Nigeria over the period of study. Specifically, the authors find that the response of economic growth to government spending shocks differs according to the nature of shocks on them. More specifically, the study established that the stabilizing effects of fiscal policies are dependent on the state of the business cycle.Originality/valueUnlike the traditional method of modeling asymmetry, which adopts the simple inclusion of a squared government spending term or by the inclusion of a cubic government spending term, the model adopted in this study allows us to model shocks and show how the responses of economic growth to government expenditure differ according to the nature of shocks on them.

scholarly journals The Vietnamese business cycle in an estimated small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Phuong V. Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Research Paper ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Business Cycle

PurposeThe primary purpose of this paper is to investigate the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in Vietnam. To this end, the author develops a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (SOE-NK-DSGE) model. Accordingly, this model includes various features, such as habit consumption, staggered price, price indexation, incomplete exchange-rate pass-through (ERPT), the failures of the law of one price (LOOP) and the uncovered interest rate parity. It is then estimated by using the Bayesian technique and Vietnamese data 1999Q1–2017Q1. Based on the estimated model, this paper analyzes the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in this emerging economy. Indeed, this research paper is the first attempt at developing and estimating the SOE-NK-DSGE model with the Bayesian technique for Vietnam.Design/methodology/approachA SOE-NK-DSGE model—Bayesian estimation.FindingsThis paper analyzes the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in Vietnam.Originality/valueThis research paper is the first attempt at developing and estimating the SOE-NK-DSGE model with the Bayesian technique for Vietnam.

Interbank financing and business cycle in Europe

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (6) ◽  
pp. 1280-1291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ly Kim Cuong ◽  
Vo Xuan Vinh
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Financial Structure ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Liquidity Shock

Purpose The knowledge of the link between interbank financing and business cycle fluctuations is important in assessing the stability and soundness of the banking sector. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the simultaneous relationship between interbank financing and the business cycle with respect to the financial structure of the bank-based and market-based systems in European countries by using bank-level data from 2007 to 2011. Design/methodology/approach The study employs an innovative instrumenting technique with an instrument of the financial structure to address the simultaneous determination of interbank financing and the business cycle. Findings The results suggest that banks establish pro-cyclical interbank borrowing by increasing their interbank position during booms and reducing it during downturns. Bank-based system performs better in redistributing the liquidity in the economy than the market-based system when there are imperfectly correlated liquidity shocks across regions during the 2007–2009 financial crisis. Practical implications The improvement of banks’ liquidity risk management should be aligned with a specific financial system. The macro-prudential supervisor should require banks in the market-based system to disclose their interbank position on the extent of risk exposure during the liquidity shock period to stabilize the EU banking industry. Originality/value This study is the first to provide policy makers with some novel empirical results concerning the linkage among bank liquidity, the macroeconomic condition and financial structure.

scholarly journals Public service motivation in the Chinese public and private sectors

2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dermot McCarthy ◽  
Ping Wei ◽  
Fabian Homberg ◽  
Vurain Tabvuma
Keyword(s):  
Public Service ◽  
Public Service Motivation ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
The Public ◽  
Municipal District ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to statistically test if the public service motivation (PSM) measure operates in the same way across the public and private sectors of a municipal district in China. It also contrasts the relationship between PSM and workplace outcomes across sectors and employee age groups. Design/methodology/approach Survey data from independent samples of public (n=220) and private (n=230) sector employees in the Changsha Municipal District of China is used. The analysis tests for invariance across groups, before comparing mean values and regression weights. Findings Only in respect of one PSM dimension do findings show a significant higher mean in the public sector. No significant difference is found on the impact of PSM on employee performance across sectors, while it is in the private sector that PSM has the greater impact on intention to leave. Findings also show no marked impact of age upon outcomes. Research limitations/implications This study provides an initial set of results and further research will need to be undertaken to verify them. The limited sample size and narrow geographical focus, although in line with similar studies on China, means the ability to draw generalisations is limited. The reliance on self-reported measures means issues with common method bias cannot be ignored. Measures were taken during data collection to minimise issues of bias and a set of post-hoc test results are provided. Practical implications The recruitment of employees with higher levels of PSM can be expected to play a role in achieving better outcomes, regardless of sector and age profile. Originality/value The PSM measure has been applied by researchers across various economic sectors. This paper is one of the first to statistically test if the concept and its measure operates in the same way across sectors. The paper contributes to the on-going debate on PSM in the context of China and its relationship with a number of key output variables. Finally, the paper contributes to the emerging debate on changing workforce demographics and their role in shaping outcomes.

Evaluating financial stress indicators: evidence from Indian data

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sruti Mundra ◽  
Motilal Bicchal
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Financial Stress ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
Stress Indicators ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stress Indices ◽  
Macroeconomic Effect ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Systemic Stress

Purpose The purpose of this study is to assess alternative financial stress indicators for India in terms of tracing crisis events, mapping with the business cycle and the macroeconomic effect of stress indices. Design/methodology/approach The study constructs the composite indicator of systemic stress of Hollo, Kremer and Lo Duca (2012) for India using two different methods for computing time-varying cross-correlation matrix, namely, exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) and dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (DCC-GARCH). The derived indices are evaluated with widely used, equal variance and principal component weighting indices in terms of tracing stress events, mapping with the business cycles and the macroeconomic effect. For this purpose, the study identifies various episodes of financial stress and uses the business cycle dates in the sample covering from January 2001 to October 2018. Findings The results suggest that stress indices based on EWMA and DCC-GARCH accurately identify the well-known stress periods and capture the recession dates and show an adverse effect on economic activity. Primarily, the DCC-GARCH-based stress index emerges as a better indicator of stress because it efficiently locates all the major-minor events, traces the build-up of stress and reverts to the normal level during stable times. Practical implications The DCC-GARCH-based stress index is a very useful indicator for policymakers in regularly monitoring India’s financial conditions and providing timely identification of systemic stress to avoid adverse repercussion effects of the financial crisis. Originality/value The 2007–2008 financial crisis and subsequent recurrent instability in the financial markets highlighted the requirement for an appropriate financial stress indicator for a timely assessment of the system-wide financial stress. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that incorporates the systemic nature of financial stress in the construction of stress indices for India and provides a holistic evaluation of the financial stress from an emerging country’s perspective.

Labour market flexibility and spatial mobility

2014 ◽  
Vol 35 (6) ◽  
pp. 746-752 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raul Eamets ◽  
Krista Jaakson
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Job Search ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Occupational Mobility ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Spatial Mobility ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Labour Market Flexibility

Purpose – Recent economic recession has highlighted the role of labour market flexibility as a key factor of competitiveness of a country. Despite the fact that labour mobility can essentially be seen as part of labour market flexibility, there is notable research gap concerning spatial mobility and other facets of labour market flexibility. The purpose of this special issue is to fill these gaps. Design/methodology/approach – The papers in the special issue represent various quantitative methods and databases, whereas mainly micro data (workplace, labour force or immigrant surveys, job search portal, etc.) is used. However, the type of labour market flexibility addressed is both micro- and macro-level. Findings – It is demonstrated that labour occupational mobility is determined by the business cycle, numerical flexibility, occupational categories, and sector. Spatial mobility may have counterintuitive effects on individual occupational mobility depending on gender and it is related to various flexibilities in the workplace. It is also suggested that different types of flexibilities on a firm level are interdependent of each other. Originality/value – The special issue adds to the labour market related knowledge by integrating labour market flexibility and mobility. Individually, both phenomena have been studied before, but not much research is devoted to their inter-linkages. The special issue also contributes by examining labour market flexibility and spatial mobility in the context of different countries, economic cycles, and institutional settings.

scholarly journals Job separation rates of immigrants and natives in the UK during the Great Recession

2017 ◽  
Vol 38 (7) ◽  
pp. 1036-1054
Author(s):  
Dafni Papoutsaki
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Uk

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the probability of job separations of immigrants and natives in the UK before and during the economic crisis of 2008. Design/methodology/approach A mixed proportional hazard duration model with a semi-parametric piecewise constant baseline hazard is used on a data sample of inflows into employment. Findings It is found that the crisis increased the probability of exits to unemployment for all groups, while immigrants from the new countries of the European Union seemed to have the lowest hazard towards unemployment even after controlling for their demographic and labour market characteristics. More specifically, even when we account for the fact that they tend to cluster in jobs that are most vulnerable to the business cycle, they are still less likely to exit dependent employment than natives. However, this migrant group is adversely affected by the crisis the most. Research limitations/implications Possible implications of out-migration of the lower performers are discussed. Originality/value This paper makes use of the panel element of the UK Quarterly Labour Force Survey, and uses duration analysis on the individual level to assess the labour market outcomes of natives and immigrants in the UK.

The role of non-formal lifelong learning at different points in the business cycle

2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 334-352 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helena Corrales-Herrero ◽  
Beatriz Rodríguez-Prado
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Lifelong Learning ◽  
Labour Market Situation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Market Situation ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Unemployed ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Despite the widely recognised importance of lifelong learning, there are mixed results on its causal economic impact. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how economic conditions change the composition of participants in non-formal lifelong learning and whether the business cycle is relevant for the impact of non-formal lifelong learning on employability. Design/methodology/approach Non-linear decomposition techniques and matching estimators based on multidimensional covariates are applied to the Spanish sample of the European Adult Education Survey. The analysis controls for background, human capital and personal traits and draws a distinction between unemployed and employed workers. Findings The results show major differences in the volume and composition of participants before and during the Great Recession. In addition, there is a business cycle dependence of the effectiveness of non-formal lifelong learning that varies with the individual labour market situation. While lifelong learning proves more effective for the unemployed in recessions, for the employed the impact is greater in expansions. Originality/value The paper provides new evidence on the scant results of the moderating effect of the business cycle on the impact of lifelong learning. The analysis is not restricted to training implemented within public programmes, but rather extends to any kind of non-formal lifelong learning undertaken by unemployed and employed workers. In this sense, the analysis provides information about the optimal moment to invest in lifelong learning from both the policymaker and individual as well as firm perspective.

Consumption, unemployment and the Great Recession

2016 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 724-743
Author(s):  
Joaquín Alegre ◽  
Llorenç Pou
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Job Loss ◽  
Consumption Smoothing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Household Members ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Spells ◽  
Unemployment Persistence

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test whether households with members that experience job loss shocks are able to protect their previous level of consumption. The paper also tests whether consumption protection is affected when spells persist through time. Design/methodology/approach – The paper estimates an intertemporal consumption model, where households try to smooth their marginal utility over time. For that purpose it analyses Spanish household budget surveys that span a long period, 1999-2012, including the Great Recession. Unlike most consumption datasets, this microdata is designed as a panel and provides detailed information for all consumption categories as well as household members’ labour status. Findings – The paper finds that consumption smoothing is dependent on the household member facing the unemployment transition. In particular, only main breadwinner’s unemployment transitions affects consumption smoothing. It also shows that the consumption drop persists beyond the period of the job loss for ongoing spells, although it follows a decreasing pattern. Finally, the estimation results are stable over the business cycle. Practical implications – The results suggest that Spanish households are not capable of fully insuring against main breadwinner’s unemployment shocks. Further, the results show that this effect remains up to two years for ongoing unemployment spells. Thus these results highlight a welfare loss by Spanish households with unemployed members. Originality/value – The paper extends the usual analysis of job loss shocks by the main breadwinner to include the cases of both the spouse and the rest of household members, who tend to account for most unemployment. Further, it tests for unemployment persistence. Finally, it checks the sensitivity of the results to the business cycle, including the Great Recession.

scholarly journals Predicting Korea’ business-cycle regimes using OnBid auction data

2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 116-133
Author(s):  
Jin Gi Kim ◽  
Hyun-Tak Lee ◽  
Bong-Gyu Jang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Asset Management ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Corporate Managers ◽  
Auction Market ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This paper examines whether the successful bid rate of the OnBid public auction, published by Korea Asset Management Corporation, can identify and forecast the Korea business-cycle expansion and contraction regimes characterized by the OECD reference turning points. We use logistic regression and support vector machine in performing the OECD regime classification and predicting three-month-ahead regime. We find that the OnBid auction rate conveys important information for detecting the coincident and future regimes because this information might be closely related to deleveraging regarding default on debt obligations. This finding suggests that corporate managers and investors could use the auction information to gauge the regime position in their decision-making. This research has an academic significance that reveals the relationship between the auction market and the business-cycle regimes.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document