Near-term financial market virus fears will be strong

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Debt Financing ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Global Recession ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Equity Index ◽  
High Chance

Significance More than 80,000 cases have been confirmed in China, and almost 10,000 cases in 68 other countries across six continents. The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) benchmark world equity index has plunged by more than 10% since February 19. Many investors fled to government bonds, driving the benchmark US ten-year treasury yield to a record low of 1.1%. Heightening investors’ fears, China’s official survey of its manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to a record low in February. Impacts Markets are almost pricing in a global recession but if the outbreak ends by April-June, there is a high chance that this will be avoided. US high-yield debt saw the third-largest dollar outflows ever in the last week of February; firms will struggle to access debt financing. If the infection rate falls as spring takes hold and temperatures rise in the Northern Hemisphere, this will help curb the outbreak. A long correction may be due as stock markets have risen for twelve years, but the length of this drop is highly uncertain. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan have cut their forecasts for US firms' profit growth this year towards zero; more downgrades could follow.

Central bank missteps are Emerging Europe's main risk

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Investors ◽  
Global Stock Markets ◽  
Equity Index

Subject The implications of a sharp rise in foreign holdings of local currency-denominated government bonds in Emerging Europe. Significance A surge in capital inflows into the Czech Republic and Turkey is increasing the scope for a disorderly sell-off in financial markets, as both the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the ECB begin simultaneously withdrawing monetary stimulus. While international investors’ appetite for higher-yielding assets remains strong because of low (or in some cases negative) bond yields in advanced economies, emerging markets (EM) are still vulnerable to the removal of stimulus by the Fed and the ECB. Impacts Global stock markets are at record highs: the rally in the S&P 500 equity index is now the second-strongest bull run in US history. Price pressures in Central Europe, particularly core inflation, will be subdued, except in the Czech Republic. This will allow central banks to maintain loose monetary policies which in turn will support regional bond markets.

The ECB will set the speed of global credit tightening

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Of Japan ◽  
Global Growth

Significance The ECB's plan could tip the scales towards tighter credit conditions globally. However, there are concerns about global growth -- particularly in the euro-area -- and government bonds are proving extremely sensitive to hawkish policy, fuelling financial market volatility. Impacts The VIX index of anticipated US equities volatility is back near a record low, but volatility may rise and remain higher than recent years. Fed rate hikes and US growth outpacing the euro-area will strengthen the dollar although the euro briefly rose on the news of ECB tapering. The ECB trails the Fed by some years in policy tightening and forming a plan for unwinding QE; this divergence will also boost the dollar. The Bank of Japan is buying vast quantities of government bonds and has no plans to remove stimulus as inflation is far below the 2% target. Investors are appreciating and trusting Fed Chair Jay Powell's attempts to speak plainly and less formulaically than predecessor Yellen.

Financial market buoyancy is fragile amid rising risks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Equity Fund ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Conditions ◽  
Forward Price ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Global Growth

Subject Financial market momentum. Significance Global bond and equity markets continue to rally after making their largest annual gains since 2010 last year. Markets are brushing off a plethora of risks, from the escalation in tensions between Tehran and Washington to concerns about weak global growth, particularly in Europe. While valuations are becoming dangerously stretched -- the forward price-to-earnings ratio of the benchmark S&P 500 index is at the highest since 2011 -- the absence of a credible catalyst for a sharp sell-off is helping to underpin positive sentiment. Financial conditions remain exceptionally loose. Impacts Demand for government bonds is building momentum and the ten-year US treasury yield is just 40 basis points above its all-time low of 2017. Emerging-market bond and equity fund inflows have momentum and while several risks could curb this, a sustained reversal is unlikely. The Shanghai stock market has lost 5% since Wuhan’s coronavirus outbreak spread beyond China on January 13; further falls are likely. Despite low market volatility, government debt markets are much more pessimistic than equity markets about global growth prospects.

Low euro-area growth supports case for ECB action

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
National Data ◽  
Deposit Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Area Growth ◽  
Near Term

Significance This is the same pace as in the third quarter, marking the eleventh consecutive quarter of expansion. For January-December, growth accelerated to 1.5% from 0.9% in 2014, in line with the December ECB staff projection. National data were generally below market expectations, but confirmed that the recovery remains on track. Impacts Private consumption will remain the primary growth driver in the near term, supported by recovering labour markets and low inflation. Inflation will stay subdued owing to falling oil prices; the recovery is too lacklustre to kick off a rise in prices. The ECB will expand its QE programme in March, cutting the deposit rate deeper into negative territory. After its recent rebound, the euro should weaken again as the ECB eases monetary policy further.

Monetary tightening could skim frothy markets

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
German Government ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank For International Settlements ◽  
Quarterly Review ◽  
Asset Classes ◽  
Market Valuations ◽  
Government Coalition

Subject Risk assets. Significance The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned of frothy financial-market valuations in its quarterly review on December 3. Overvaluation in several asset classes, including US equities and benchmark government bonds, in combination with monetary-stimulus withdrawal, increases the scope for a correction. Impacts Investors will continue to seek yield. Robust European growth will strenghten the euro against the dollar despite worries over the progress of German government coalition talks. Investors are worried about equity valuations, but a sustained sell-off is unlikely to occur without a sharp repricing in bond markets.

Brazil's third-quarter bounceback may not be sustained

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Immunisation Programme ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Emergency Assistance ◽  
Near Term

Significance The negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are still affecting the Brazilian economy. After a sharp recession in the first two quarters of the year, the economy partially recovered during the third quarter following the easing of anti-coronavirus lockdown measures. However, third-quarter growth was below market estimates and GDP remains below pre-pandemic levels. Impacts Emergency welfare assistance may be necessary well into 2021, despite mounting concerns over the fiscal deficit. The fiscal cost of emergency assistance will worry investors, but an end to aid could undermine fragile recovery. Delays in launching a COVID-19 immunisation programme put near-term economic recovery at risk.

The US Treasury market is vulnerable to stress

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Securities Market ◽  
Price Expectations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
The Us ◽  
Policy Conflicts ◽  
Treasury Market ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Corrective Intervention

Significance The US Treasuries securities market is the world's largest and most liquid financial market, and is relied on by market participants as a basis to price other risks. However, on several occasions in recent years, it has exhibited unusual behaviour under stress and required corrective intervention by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Impacts The rebound remains vulnerable to COVID-19 spread, and the ongoing need for supportive measures will stoke policy conflicts for some time. The firmer link between policy and price expectations means that miscommunication may be more disruptive than in the 2013 ‘taper tantrum’. The Fed tapering of bond purchases over the near term could trigger interest rate rises, testing the resilience of the Treasury market.

Rising political risks fuel financial market anxieties

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
The World ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Impact

Subject Global reflation trade falters as markets question Trump Significance US President Donald Trump warned in a newspaper interview on April 12 that the dollar was getting too strong and said that he would prefer the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low. His remarks were the latest challenge to the speculative bets that have underpinned surging stock markets since last November's US election. Since mid-March, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has fallen by 40 basis points and the dollar has weakened as confidence in Trump’s pro-business policies wanes and inflationary pressures soften across the world. Impacts Investors face greater near-term volatility in sterling assets as the June 8 UK election adds new uncertainty to the Brexit process. The recent volatility in oil prices will continue due to mounting uncertainty about the impact of production cuts by major producers. Euro-dollar volatility will heighten further if Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon both reach the second round of France's election.

Markets fear inadequacy of monetary and fiscal moves

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Conditions ◽  
Lehman Brothers ◽  
Household Incomes ◽  
Deep Recession

Subject Financial market volatility. Significance The COVID-19 pandemic, which has so far resulted in more than 34,000 confirmed deaths worldwide and infected over 720,000 people, is pushing the global economy into a deep recession and placing the financial system under the severest strain since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Investors remain sceptical about efforts to stimulate economies even though the world’s leading central banks and governments are adopting a 'whatever it takes' approach by pledging to spend trillions of dollars to stabilise markets, support business activity and shield household incomes. Impacts The trade-weighted dollar has lost 4.5% since March 19 but remains 3.0% higher than on March 9, adding to the tighter financial conditions. The Shanghai equities index has outperformed Western equities from mid-February; this will continue if Chinese activity recovers faster. The price of Brent crude oil has plunged this month, severely straining high-yield energy bonds and fuelling concerns about a debt crisis.

BOTANICAL COMPOSITION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF PERENNIAL GRASSES AGROPHYTOCENOSES WITH TETRAPLOID MEADOW CLOVER

1970 ◽  
pp. 59-62
Author(s):  
N. I. Kasatkina ◽  
Zh. S. Nelyubina
Keyword(s):  
Dry Weight ◽  
Single Species ◽  
Lotus Corniculatus ◽  
Specific Weight ◽  
Biological Properties ◽  
Phleum Pratense ◽  
Perennial Grasses ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Botanical Composition ◽  
The Third

The biological properties of plants, their mutual relations under different growth conditions and at different periods of their life, must be known for obtaining highly productive agrophytocenoses with participation of a meadow clover (Trifolium pratense L.). Botanical composition and fodder productivity of perennial grasses in agrocenoses with participation of meadow tetraploid clover Kudesnik were studied in 2014-2017. It was revealed that in the first and second years of use the agrophytocenosis, the yield of green mass was formed due to meadow tetraploid clover, the share of its participation in the first mowing was at level of 71-87% and 64-97% respectively. Specific weight of clover in multispecies agrocenoses considerably decreased by the third year of use: in the first mowing up to 32-68%, in the second - up to 8-52%. At the same time, the percentage of long-term herbaceous grasses increased: meadow timothy (Phleum pratense L.) - up to 34-54%, eastern galega (Galéga orientális Lam.) - up to 33%, changeable alfalfa (Medicago x varia Martyn) - up to 22-54%, lotus corniculatus (Lotus corniculatus L.) - up to 14-19%. The proportion of weed admixture in single-species clover planting was 12%, in agrocenoses - 2-14%. The grass mixtures clover + timothy and clover + alfalfa + timothy were less infested by weeds. High yield of dry weight of single-species sowing of meadow tetraploid clover was obtained in the first two years of use - 7.8 and 6.5 tons / ha, respectively. By the third year of use, the productivity of clover has decreased to 2.9 t / ha. On average, for three years of use, the highest yield (6.2-6.3 t / ha) was formed by agrocenoses meadow tetraploid clover + meadow timothy and meadow tetraploid clover + changeable alfalfa + meadow timothy.

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