Domestic demand to boost Bolivia’s economic rebound

Significance Public investment halved in comparison with 2019 while on the supply side, mining, manufacturing and construction posted major slumps. All sectors contributed to the overall decline, with the exceptions of agriculture and public administration services. Impacts The risk of violent protests has diminished under President Arce but demonstrations demanding financial support and job security are likely. The banking sector, albeit well-capitalised, will continue suffering from loan restructurings. Until more progress is made with vaccinations, further waves of COVID-19 pose major risks to both public health and economic development.

Subject Bolivia's economic outlook. Significance Bolivia continues to buck the trend in terms of Latin American growth rates, with official expectations for growth this year of 4.7%, somewhat more than in 2016. Inflation is expected to remain at modest levels of around 4%. As in previous years since the collapse of gas prices, domestic demand will be the motor of growth. Impacts Levels of public investment will remain far higher than in most Latin American countries. Exports should stabilise this year, albeit at rates well below those of the 'super-cycle' years. A new gas-supply contract will need to be negotiated with Brazil over the course of the next year.


Subject Outlook for Peruvian growth. Significance With both external and domestic demand ebbing in the first few months of 2019, forecasters are reducing their estimates for GDP growth in 2019. Peru is exposed to a slowdown in growth in China, since it is by far its biggest export market and the main source of foreign investment. Public investment also appears to be slower than in previous years. Impacts Slower growth will impact negatively on employment and risk pushing up poverty levels. Business groups will increase their pressure on government to roll back social legislation on matters like labour stability. The relatively high level of reserves will cushion Peru from balance of payments pressures.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Salman Ahmed Shaikh

Purpose This study aims to propose a hybrid microfinance model that integrates various Islamic commercial and social finance institutions through Fintech for efficient and impactful results. The microfinance model caters to the financial and social intermediation needs through a set of financial services and non-financial support. Design/methodology/approach The study uses both a mathematical model and an empirical estimation using micro panel data to establish the core problem in microfinance operations. Conclusions from the mathematical model and estimated results in the empirical analysis are used to suggest an institutional design which embeds technology in the delivery of Islamic microfinance in an integrated structure. For screening and incentive conditions, the study gives illustration through numerical examples. Findings The mathematical model highlights the need for financial sustainability, outreach, scale and complementariness of non-financial factors such as commitment, repayment incentives and skills enhancement multiplier. In light of this, the proposed Islamic microfinance model is outlined to create synergies by integrating a diversity of funding sources through social savings and impact investments. The programme also blends financial services with non-financial support to ensure engagement and commitment on a long-term basis. It uses Fintech in various demand and supply-side operations to show how technology embeddedness can help in achieving cost efficiencies and extend outreach. Originality/value It is the first study in integrated institutional design in Islamic microfinance literature that embeds Fintech in both demand side and supply side operations comprehensively. The proposed model is conducive for enhancing outreach, scale and impact in the Islamic microfinancial services.


Significance State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD), which controls the civilian portion of government, is aiming to retain its parliamentary majority. The NLD and the politically powerful military have been leading the response to the COVID-19 crisis. Impacts The NLD will attract strong support from Myanmar’s ethnic Bamar majority but lose ground among minority voters. Myanmar’s banking sector will be hit hard by the economic fallout of the pandemic. The country’s weak public health infrastructure would struggle to cope with any surge in COVID-19 cases.


Subject Egyptian e-commerce. Significance The past decade has seen a rapid rise in the number of internet users in Egypt. The country now has the largest number of internet users in the Arab world. Cairo plans to benefit economically from a growing technologically-aware population by promoting e-commerce, and last April announced its intention to double the number of businesses selling products online by 2020. Impacts The government will scale up public investment in roads and technological infrastructure, facilitating online retail. The growth of online retailing will generate more profit for the banking sector. E-commerce may aid a transition away from cash dependency, which could reduce the size of the informal sector and increase tax revenue.


Subject Prospects for Central Europe in 2019. Significance After a strong cyclical upswing since 2014, the economies of Central Europe and the Baltic states (CEB) will experience more modest rates of GDP growth. A mix of base effects, stronger inflationary pressures and tighter monetary policy is expected to drive this trend, but domestic demand and public investment will remain key supports to GDP.


2020 ◽  
Vol 58 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellen N. Kersh ◽  
Cau D. Pham ◽  
John R. Papp ◽  
Robert Myers ◽  
Richard Steece ◽  
...  

ABSTRACT U.S. gonorrhea rates are rising, and antibiotic-resistant Neisseria gonorrhoeae (AR-Ng) is an urgent public health threat. Since implementation of nucleic acid amplification tests for N. gonorrhoeae identification, the capacity for culturing N. gonorrhoeae in the United States has declined, along with the ability to perform culture-based antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST). Yet AST is critical for detecting and monitoring AR-Ng. In 2016, the CDC established the Antibiotic Resistance Laboratory Network (AR Lab Network) to shore up the national capacity for detecting several resistance threats including N. gonorrhoeae. AR-Ng testing, a subactivity of the CDC’s AR Lab Network, is performed in a tiered network of approximately 35 local laboratories, four regional laboratories (state public health laboratories in Maryland, Tennessee, Texas, and Washington), and the CDC’s national reference laboratory. Local laboratories receive specimens from approximately 60 clinics associated with the Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project (GISP), enhanced GISP (eGISP), and the program Strengthening the U.S. Response to Resistant Gonorrhea (SURRG). They isolate and ship up to 20,000 isolates to regional laboratories for culture-based agar dilution AST with seven antibiotics and for whole-genome sequencing of up to 5,000 isolates. The CDC further examines concerning isolates and monitors genetic AR markers. During 2017 and 2018, the network tested 8,214 and 8,628 N. gonorrhoeae isolates, respectively, and the CDC received 531 and 646 concerning isolates and 605 and 3,159 sequences, respectively. In summary, the AR Lab Network supported the laboratory capacity for N. gonorrhoeae AST and associated genetic marker detection, expanding preexisting notification and analysis systems for resistance detection. Continued, robust AST and genomic capacity can help inform national public health monitoring and intervention.


2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (8) ◽  
pp. 3062-3080 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khar Mang Tan ◽  
Fakarudin Kamarudin ◽  
Amin Noordin Bany-Ariffin ◽  
Norhuda Abdul Rahim

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the firm efficiency or technical efficiency (TE), pure technical efficiency (PTE) and scale efficiency (SE) in the selected developed and developing Asia-Pacific countries. Design/methodology/approach The sample consists of a sum of 700 firms in selected developed and developing Asia-Pacific countries over the period from 2009 to 2015. The non-parametric data envelopment analysis under the production approach is used to investigate firm efficiency. Findings On average, this paper discovers that the firms in selected Asia-Pacific countries are moderately efficient. Scale inefficiency (SIE) is found to be the dominant source of firms’ technical inefficiency. The analysis of return to scale shows that the large firms tend to operate at decreasing return to scale level, while the small firms tend to operate at increasing return to scale level. Practical implications The findings from this paper provide significant insights to the policy makers and firm managers in promoting the efficient firms of Asia-Pacific countries. Originality/value The present paper conducts a critical analysis on return to scale in the firms sector of Asia-Pacific context, which is ignored by the past studies on firm efficiency since the analysis of return to scale is mostly emphasized on banking sector. The precise nature of SIE is important for a firm to be efficient in achieving the firm’s primary goals of profit maximization and sustaining market competitiveness.


2008 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 151-169
Author(s):  
Elvis Qenani-Petrela ◽  
Ron Mittelhammer ◽  
Philip Wandschneider

Many seasonal workers are housed in transitory accommodations, including tents and vehicles. In this study, we analyze the supply side of this problem by assuming that a public agent must house the workers through direct public investment. A peak load model is adapted to develop investment rules for the least-cost provision of seasonal worker housing, adding an interacting multi-season component to existing models. Based on this model and the data from three prototype projects, the majority of the least-cost investment would be in permanent, but seasonally occupied, housing.


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