Comparison of a new predictive model with other critical scores for predicting in-hospital mortality among children with pneumonia-related bacteremia

2021 ◽  
pp. jim-2020-001688
Author(s):  
Jilei Lin ◽  
Yin Zhang ◽  
Anchao Song ◽  
Nan Yang ◽  
Linyan Ying ◽  
...  

Prediction of mortality in children with pneumonia-related bacteremia is necessary for providing timely care and treatment. This study aims to develop and validate a nomogram and compare it with Pediatric Risk of Mortality III (PRISM III), Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score (Brighton PEWS) and Pediatric Critical Illness Score (PCIS), which are widely used in predicting in-hospital mortality in children with pneumonia-related bacteremia. This retrospective study collected clinical data of hospitalized children with pneumonia-related bacteremia in Chongqing, China (January 2013–May 2019). The nomogram was built using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The nomogram was compared with PRISM III, PEWS and PCIS in accuracy and clinical benefits in predicting in-hospital mortality in children with pneumonia-related bacteremia. A total of 242 children were included. The nomogram including time to first positivity of blood cultures (TTFP), serum albumin (ALB) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) was established. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the nomogram was 0.84 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.91) in the training set and 0.82 (95% CI 0.71 to 0.93) in the validating set. Good consistency was observed between the predictions and the actual observations, and the decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram was clinically useful. The results showed that the nomogram significantly performed better than the three critical scores. In conclusion, a nomogram-illustrated model incorporating TTFP, ALB and LDH for predicting in-hospital mortality in children with pneumonia-related bacteremia at the early stage was established and validated. It performed better than PRISM III, PEWS and PCIS.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yin Zhang ◽  
Jilei Lin ◽  
Zhou Fu ◽  
Jihong Dai

Abstract Background: The recognition of the development of poor outcomes in children with HAdV infection in early stage of the disease is vital because of high mortality rates. This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram in predicting risk of IMV in children with SAdVP at the early stage of the disease.Methods: The retrospective study collected clinical data of hospitalized children with SAdVP in general wards of a 1900-bed teaching hospital in Chongqing, China (2015-2019). The nomogram was built by using the multivariate logistic regression analysis. The performance of the nomogram was assessed by discrimination, calibration and clinical utility. Results: Two hundred and seven children with SAdVP were included. Age, level of albumin, atelectasis and creatine kinase MB isoenzyme were identified as predictors in the nomogram. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the nomogram was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.78-0.91) in the training set and 0.81 (95% CI, 0.69-0.94) in the validating set. A good consistency was observed between the predictions and the actual observations, and decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram was clinically useful. Conclusions: Nomogram to predict the risk of IMV in children with SAdVP in general wards was established and validated. It may be a valuable tool for clinicians to recognize the risk of IMV for children with SAdVP at the early stage of the disease.


BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. e043721
Author(s):  
Donald Richardson ◽  
Muhammad Faisal ◽  
Massimo Fiori ◽  
Kevin Beatson ◽  
Mohammed Mohammed

ObjectivesAlthough the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and its latest version NEWS2 are recommended for monitoring deterioration in patients admitted to hospital, little is known about their performance in COVID-19 patients. We aimed to compare the performance of the NEWS and NEWS2 in patients with COVID-19 versus those without during the first phase of the pandemic.DesignA retrospective cross-sectional study.SettingTwo acute hospitals (Scarborough and York) are combined into a single dataset and analysed collectively.ParticipantsAdult (≥18 years) non-elective admissions discharged between 11 March 2020 and 13 June 2020 with an index or on-admission NEWS2 electronically recorded within ±24 hours of admission to predict mortality at four time points (in-hospital, 24 hours, 48 hours and 72 hours) in COVID-19 versus non-COVID-19 admissions.ResultsOut of 6480 non-elective admissions, 620 (9.6%) had a diagnosis of COVID-19. They were older (73.3 vs 67.7 years), more often male (54.7% vs 50.1%), had higher index NEWS (4 vs 2.5) and NEWS2 (4.6 vs 2.8) scores and higher in-hospital mortality (32.1% vs 5.8%). The c-statistics for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 admissions was significantly lower using NEWS (0.64 vs 0.74) or NEWS2 (0.64 vs 0.74), however, these differences reduced at 72hours (NEWS: 0.75 vs 0.81; NEWS2: 0.71 vs 0.81), 48 hours (NEWS: 0.78 vs 0.81; NEWS2: 0.76 vs 0.82) and 24hours (NEWS: 0.84 vs 0.84; NEWS2: 0.86 vs 0.84). Increasing NEWS2 values reflected increased mortality, but for any given value the absolute risk was on average 24% higher (eg, NEWS2=5: 36% vs 9%).ConclusionsThe index or on-admission NEWS and NEWS2 offers lower discrimination for COVID-19 admissions versus non-COVID-19 admissions. The index NEWS2 was not proven to be better than the index NEWS. For each value of the index NEWS/NEWS2, COVID-19 admissions had a substantially higher risk of mortality than non-COVID-19 admissions which reflects the increased baseline mortality risk of COVID-19.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Ke ◽  
Yiwei Chen ◽  
Xiaoping Wang ◽  
Zhiyong Wu ◽  
qiongyao Zhang ◽  
...  

Abstract BackgroundThe purpose of this study is to identify the risk factors of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and to evaluate the performance of traditional regression and machine learning prediction models.MethodsThe data of ACS patients who entered the emergency department of Fujian Provincial Hospital from January 1, 2017 to March 31, 2020 for chest pain were retrospectively collected. The study used univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify risk factors for in-hospital mortality of ACS patients. The traditional regression and machine learning algorithms were used to develop predictive models, and the sensitivity, specificity, and receiver operating characteristic curve were used to evaluate the performance of each model.ResultsA total of 7810 ACS patients were included in the study, and the in-hospital mortality rate was 1.75%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis found that age and levels of D-dimer, cardiac troponin I, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and calcium channel blockers were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. The study found that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the models developed by logistic regression, gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), random forest, and support vector machine (SVM) for predicting the risk of in-hospital mortality were 0.963, 0.960, 0.963, and 0.959, respectively. Feature importance evaluation found that NT-proBNP, LDH, and HDL cholesterol were top three variables that contribute the most to the prediction performance of the GBDT model and random forest model.ConclusionsThe predictive model developed using logistic regression, GBDT, random forest, and SVM algorithms can be used to predict the risk of in-hospital death of ACS patients. Based on our findings, we recommend that clinicians focus on monitoring the changes of NT-proBNP, LDH, and HDL cholesterol, as this may improve the clinical outcomes of ACS patients.


2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 1781 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Mazzaccaro ◽  
Francesca Giacomazzi ◽  
Matteo Giannetta ◽  
Alberto Varriale ◽  
Rosa Scaramuzzo ◽  
...  

Introduction: Aim of the study is to assess the occurrence of early stage coagulopathy and disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) in patients with mild to moderate respiratory distress secondary to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Materials and methods: Data of patients hospitalized from 18 March 2020 to 20 April 2020 were retrospectively reviewed. Two scores for the screening of coagulopathy (SIC and non-overt DIC scores) were calculated. The occurrence of thrombotic complication, death, and worsening respiratory function requiring non-invasive ventilation (NIV) or admission to ICU were recorded, and these outcomes were correlated with the results of each score. Chi-square test, receiver-operating characteristic curve, and logistic regression analysis were used as appropriate. p Values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant. Results: Data of 32 patients were analyzed. Overt-DIC was diagnosed in two patients (6.2%), while 26 (81.2%) met the criteria for non-overt DIC. Non-overt DIC score values ≥4 significantly correlated with the need of NIV/ICU (p = 0.02) and with the occurrence of thrombotic complications (p = 0.04). A score ≥4 was the optimal cut-off value, performing better than SIC score (p = 0.0018). Values ≥4 in patients with thrombotic complications were predictive of death (p = 0.03). Conclusions: Overt DIC occurred in 6.2% of non-ICU patients hospitalized for a mild to moderate COVID-19 respiratory distress, while 81.2% fulfilled the criteria for non-overt DIC. The non-overt DIC score performed better than the SIC score in predicting the need of NIV/ICU and the occurrence of thrombotic complications, as well as in predicting mortality in patients with thrombotic complications, with a score ≥4 being detected as the optimal cut-off.


2020 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 107602962093520
Author(s):  
Chunxia Wang ◽  
Yun Cui ◽  
Huijie Miao ◽  
Ting Sun ◽  
Ye Lu ◽  
...  

Vitronectin (VTN) is a key regulator of coagulation, but clinical relevance of serum VTN in pediatric sepsis remains poorly defined. The aim of this study was to access the value of serum VTN level on pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission in children with sepsis. Pediatric patients with sepsis were enrolled from January 2018 to December 2018. The serum VTN levels were determined on PICU admission, and the association of serum VTN level with PICU mortality and organ dysfunction was assessed. Serum VTN levels were significantly lower in nonsurvivors compared with survivors, in patients with septic shock compared with patients with sepsis, or in patients with sepsis-associated acute liver injury (ALI) compared with patients without ALI. Serum VTN level was associated with PICU mortality (odds ratio [OR]: 0.958, 95% CI: 0.927-0.996; P = .010) or ALI (OR: 0.956, 95% CI: 0.915-0.999; P = .046), but not shock (OR: 0.996, 95% CI: 0.977-1.016; P =.716). The area under receiver operating characteristic curve for VTN in predicting the occurrence of ALI during PICU stay and PICU mortality were 0.760 (95% CI: 0.627- 0.893) and 0.737 (95% CI: 0.544-0.931), respectively. Moreover, VTN plus pediatric risk of mortality (PRISM) III had a better clinical utility according to decision curve analysis compared with VTN or PRISM III alone. These findings suggest that serum VTN level is associated with sepsis-associated ALI and PICU mortality, and VTN plus PRISM III is a powerful predictor of PICU mortality in pediatric patients with sepsis, which have a better clinical benefit compared with VTN or PRISM III alone.


2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 79-87
Author(s):  
Valeria Caramello ◽  
Valentina Beux ◽  
Alessandro Vincenzo De Salve ◽  
Alessandra Macciotta ◽  
Fulvio Ricceri ◽  
...  

We evaluated the prognostic performance of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), quick-SOFA (qSOFA), modified early warning score (MEWS), lactates and procalcitonin in septic patients. Prospective study on adults with sepsis in the Emergency Department (ED). Area under the Receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated to assess how scores predict mortality at 30 and 60 days (d) and upon admission to Intensive care unit (ICU). Among 469 patients, mortality was associated with higher SOFA, qSOFA, MEWS and lactates level. ICU admission was associated with higher SOFA, procalcitonin and MEWS. Prognostic performance for mortality were: SOFA AUC 30 d 0.76 (0.69-0.81); 60 d 0.74 (0.68-0.79); qSOFA AUC 30 d 0.72 (0.66-0.79); 60 d 0.73 (0.67-0.78) and lactates AUC 30 d 0.71 (0.60-0.82); 60d 0.65 (0.54- 0.73). For the outcome ICU admission, procalcitonin had the highest AUC [0.66 (0.56-0.64], followed by SOFA [0.61 (0.54-0.69)] and MEWS [0.60 (0.53-0.67)]. SOFA, qSOFA and lactates assessment after arrival in the ED have a good performance in detecting patients at risk of mortality for sepsis. Procalcitonin is useful to select patients that will need ICU admission.


PeerJ ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. e7227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaobin Jiang ◽  
Ping Jiang ◽  
Yuanshen Mao

Background With an increasing number of motor vehicle crashes, there is an urgent need in emergency departments (EDs) to assess patients with multiple trauma quickly, easily, and reliably. Trauma severity can range from a minor to major threats to life or bodily function. In-hospital mortality and trauma severity prediction in such cases is crucial in the ED for the management of multiple trauma and improvement of the outcome of these patients. Previous studies have examined the performance of Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) or Circulation, Respiration, Abdomen, Motor, and Speech (CRAMS) score based solely on mortality prediction or injury severity prediction. However, to the best of our knowledge, the performances of both scoring systems on in-hospital mortality and trauma severity prediction have not been compared previously. This retrospective study evaluated the value of MEWS and CRAMS score to predict in-hospital mortality and trauma severity in patients presenting to the ED with multiple traumatic injuries. Methods All study subjects were multiple trauma patients. Medical data of 1,127 patients were analyzed between January 2014 and April 2018. The MEWS and CRAMS score were calculated, and logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis were conducted to investigate their performances regarding in-hospital mortality and trauma severity prediction. Results For in-hospital mortality prediction, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCs) for MEWS and CRAMS score were 0.90 and 0.91, respectively, indicating that both of them were good in-hospital mortality predictors. Further, our study indicated that the CRAMS score performed better in trauma severity prediction, with an AUROC value of 0.84, which was higher than that of MEWS (AUROC = 0.77). For trauma severity prediction, the optimal cut-off value for MEWS was 2, while that of the CRAMS score was 8. Conclusions We found that both MEWS and CRAMS score can be used as predictors for trauma severity and in-hospital mortality for multiple trauma patients, but that CRAMS score was superior to MEWS for trauma severity prediction. CRAMS score should be prioritized in the prediction of trauma severity due to its excellence as a multiple trauma triage tool and potential contribution to rapid emergency rescue decisions.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shruti Jain ◽  
Anurag Agrawal ◽  
Lalit Singh ◽  
Rajeev Tandon

INTRODUCTION: Hospitalisation due to acute exacerbations of COPD is common, and subsequent mortality high. The DECAF and BAP 65 score was derived for accurate prediction of mortality and risk stratification to inform patient care. We aimed to validate these scores, and to compare them. Comparison of DECAF, BAP-65 scores in predicting in hospital mortality in AECOPD MATERIAL AND METHODS: 106 patients of AECOPD, admitted during 6 months period were scored at admission using all 2 scores and their ability to predict in-hospital mortality was analysed. RESULTS: On receiver-operator characteristic curve analysis, the area under curve for prediction of in-hospital mortality was 0.791and 0.885 respectively for DECAF and BAP-65 scores respectively. Thus, among the two scoring systems BAP-65 had maximum area under curve while DECAF had minimum area under curve. Sensitivity and specificity values for prediction of in-hospital mortality were 83.3% and 54.3% for DECAF and 83.3% and 84.0% for BAP-65. Thus BAP-65 was the best predictor with adequate sensitivity and specificity for the in-hospital mortality.CONCLUSION: BAP-65 was most effective in prediction of in-hospital mortality


Diagnostics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1011
Author(s):  
Peng Luo ◽  
Zheng Fang ◽  
Ping Zhang ◽  
Yang Yang ◽  
Hua Zhang ◽  
...  

This study aimed to explore the ability of combination model of ultrasound radiomics score (Rad-score) and the thyroid imaging, reporting and data system by the American College of Radiology (ACR TI-RADS) in predicting benign and malignant thyroid nodules (TNs). Up to 286 radiomics features were extracted from ultrasound images of TNs. By using the lowest probability of classification error and average correlation coefficients (POE + ACC) and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), we finally selected four features to establish Rad-score (Vertl-RLNonUni, Vertl-GLevNonU, WavEnLH-s4 and WavEnHL-s5). DeLong’s test and decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that the method of combining Rad-score and ACR TI-RADS had the best performance (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC = 0.913 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.881–0.939) and 0.899 (95%CI, 0.840–0.942) in the training group and verification group, respectively), followed by ACR TI-RADS (AUC = 0.898 (95%CI, 0.863–0.926) and 0.870 (95%CI, 0.806–0.919) in the training group and verification group, respectively), and followed by Rad-score (AUC = 0.750 (95%CI, 0.704–0.792) and 0.750 (95%CI, 0.672–0.817) in the training group and verification group, respectively). We concluded that the ability of ultrasound Rad-score to distinguish benign and malignant TNs was not as good as that of ACR TI-RADS, and the ability of the combination model of Rad-score and ACR TI-RADS to discriminate benign and malignant TNs was better than ACR TI-RADS or Rad-score alone. Ultrasound Rad-score might play a potential role in improving the differentiation of malignant TNs from benign TNs.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 1915
Author(s):  
Dong-Ki Kim ◽  
Dong-Hun Lee ◽  
Byung-Kook Lee ◽  
Yong-Soo Cho ◽  
Seok-Jin Ryu ◽  
...  

The present study aimed to analyze and compare the prognostic performances of the Revised Trauma Score (RTS), Injury Severity Score (ISS), Shock Index (SI), and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) for in-hospital mortality in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). This retrospective observational study included severe trauma patients with TBI who visited the emergency department between January 2018 and December 2020. TBI was considered when the Abbreviated Injury Scale was 3 or higher. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. In total, 1108 patients were included, and the in-hospital mortality was 183 patients (16.3% of the cohort). Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were performed for the ISS, RTS, SI, and MEWS with respect to the prediction of in-hospital mortality. The area under the curves (AUCs) of the ISS, RTS, SI, and MEWS were 0.638 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.603–0.672), 0.742 (95% CI, 0.709–0.772), 0.524 (95% CI, 0.489–0.560), and 0.799 (95% CI, 0.769–0.827), respectively. The AUC of MEWS was significantly different from the AUCs of ISS, RTS, and SI. In multivariate analysis, age (odds ratio (OR), 1.012; 95% CI, 1.000–1.023), the ISS (OR, 1.040; 95% CI, 1.013–1.069), the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score (OR, 0.793; 95% CI, 0.761–0.826), and body temperature (BT) (OR, 0.465; 95% CI, 0.329–0.655) were independently associated with in-hospital mortality after adjustment for confounders. In the present study, the MEWS showed fair performance for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with TBI. The GCS score and BT seemed to have a significant role in the discrimination ability of the MEWS. The MEWS may be a useful tool for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with TBI.


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