scholarly journals Constructing a Coincident Economic Indicator for India: How Well Does It Track Gross Domestic Product?

2021 ◽  
Vol 38 (02) ◽  
pp. 237-277
Author(s):  
SOUMYA BHADURY ◽  
SAURABH GHOSH ◽  
PANKAJ KUMAR
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Economic Indicator ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Dynamic Factor ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Contemporaneous Correlation ◽  
Out Of Sample

In India, the first official estimate of quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) is released approximately 7–8 weeks after the end of the reference quarter. To provide an early estimate of current quarter GDP growth, we construct Coincident Economic Indicators for India (CEIIs) using a sequentially expanding list of 6, 9, and 12 high-frequency indicators. These indicators represent various sectors, display high contemporaneous correlation with GDP, and track GDP turning points well. CEII-6 includes domestic economic activity indicators, while CEII-9 incorporates indicators of trade and services and CEII-12 adds financial indicators in the model. We include a financial block in CEII-12 to reflect the growing influence of the financial sector on economic activity. CEIIs are estimated using a dynamic factor model which extracts a common trend underlying the high-frequency indicators. The extracted trend provides a real-time assessment of the state of the economy and helps identify sectors contributing to economic fluctuations. Furthermore, GDP nowcasts using CEIIs show considerable gains in both in-sample and out-of-sample accuracy. In particular, we observe that our GDP growth nowcast closely tracks the recent slowdown in the Indian economy.

Analyzing and management of health care expenditure and gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate by adaptive neuro-fuzzy technique

2016 ◽  
Vol 64 ◽  
pp. 524-530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Mladenović ◽  
Miloš Milovančević ◽  
Svetlana Sokolov Mladenović ◽  
Vladislav Marjanović ◽  
Biljana Petković
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Health Care Expenditure ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy

scholarly journals ECONOMETRICS OF NATIONAL SECURITY AND DEFENSE OF UKRAINE

2021 ◽  
pp. 44-52
Author(s):  
Y. Marko ◽  
V. Kuzmenko
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
National Security ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Weak Efficiency ◽  
State Budget ◽  
External Threats ◽  
Gas Market

The article provides the importance of Ukraine's economic development to ensure national security, highlights the main internal and external threats to Ukraine's national security, such as: hybrid economic war, the "needle" of loans from the International Monetary Fund, communal tariffs, opening the gas market in Ukraine, inefficient introduction of the circulation of domestic agricultural lands and insufficient use of the capabilities of the country's economy. The cyclical nature of economic development is practically proved by distinguishing four phases of economic development of the studied countries for the last ten years, weak efficiency of economic policy of Ukraine and possible applied mechanisms of economic growth. An econometric analysis of GDP of Ukraine and countries that occupy the largest share in Ukrainian imports of goods, the budget of Ukraine and the budget of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine using the method of least squares and even linear regressions, calculated the intensity of changes in Ukraine's economic processes. The model of gross domestic product of Ukraine depending on the gross domestic product of China, Poland, Russia, Turkey, Germany, Italy, Belarus, the United States and France (nine-factor model), as well as the model of Ukraine's defense budget depending on the domestic gross domestic product product, budget expenditures, taxes, minimum and average wages and inflation (seven-factor model). On the example of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine as a public sector institution, the registration algorithm for economic (additional) activities by military units and the distribution of revenues to increase the special fund of the state budget of Ukraine and create recovery of the country economy in general.

scholarly journals Tingkat Bagi Hasil, Pertumbuhan Likuiditas, dan Produk Domestik Bruto Terhadap Simpanan Mudharabah

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-25
Author(s):  
Ismayana Marhamah
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Hypothesis Testing ◽  
Hypothesis Test ◽  
Profit Sharing ◽  
T Test ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
Test Result

This study aims to determine the effect of profit sharing growth, liquidity growth, gross domestic product (GDP) growth, of mudharabah saving growth in general islamic banks. The variables studied are the influence of profit sharing rate, liquidity growth, gross domestic product (GDP) growth as independent variable and mudharabah saving growth as dependent variable. The population in this study are sharia islamic banks registered in Bank Indonesia (BI) and the amount of gross domestic productquarter-year period 2012-2016.The result of hypothesis testing (t test) shows that the profit sharing growth and gross domestic product partially has significant effect to mudharabah saving growth. Then the test result of liquidity growth partially has no effect and not significant to mudharabah saving growth. The results of simultaneous hypothesis test (test F), show that all independent variabels in this study has significant effect to mudharabah saving growth.

Dynamic Factors and Asset Pricing

2010 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 707-737 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongzhi (Lawrence) He ◽  
Sahn-Wook Huh ◽  
Bong-Soo Lee
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Dynamic Factor ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Dynamic Factors ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Competing Models ◽  
Fama And French

AbstractThis study develops an econometric model that incorporates features of price dynamics across assets as well as through time. With the dynamic factors extracted via the Kalman filter, we formulate an asset pricing model, termed the dynamic factor pricing model (DFPM). We then conduct asset pricing tests in the in-sample and out-of-sample contexts. Our analyses show that the ex ante factors are a key component in asset pricing and forecasting. By using the ex ante factors, the DFPM improves upon the explanatory and predictive power of other competing models, including unconditional and conditional versions of the Fama and French (1993) 3-factor model. In particular, the DFPM can explain and better forecast the momentum portfolio returns, which are mostly missed by alternative models.

scholarly journals DYNAMIC FACTOR MODEL OF GDP SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF UKRAINE

2018 ◽  
pp. 17-22
Author(s):  
Larysa Zomchak ◽  
Anastasiia Rakova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Dynamic Factor ◽  
Dynamic Factor Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Econometric Methods ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Main Components

Introduction. The short-term (quarterly) forecast of GDP is based on factor variables of the financial and non-financial sectors of the economy, indicators of foreign economic activity, indicators of economic activity, etc. Although the statistics of these indicators are available on a monthly basis, but its disclosure comes with a certain lag, and values over time can be reviewed and clarified. These data can be used to estimate the quarterly value of GDP before the official information about its empirical volume is published. Purpose. The article aims to forecast the quarterly real GDP of Ukraine by means of a dynamic factor model on the basis of the quarterly and monthly values of the main social and economic macro indicators of Ukraine. The method (methodology). To achieve the task, we have used the econometric methods of macroeconomic modelling, namely the dynamic factor model, the Kalman filter, the method of the main components, etc. Results. The forecast of GDP of Ukraine for the first two quarters of 2018 has been obtained with the help of a dynamic factor model. On the basis of comparison of the obtained forecast with the empirical values of Ukraine's GDP for the similar period, which is published by the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, it has been proven the adequacy of the model and the high quality of the results has been concluded.

scholarly journals Applying the ARIMA Model to the Process of Forecasting GDP and CPI in the Jordanian Economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
Abdullah Ghazo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Domestic Product

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and consumer price index (CPI) are significant indicators to describe and evaluate economic activity and levels of development. They are also often used by decision makers so as to plan economic policy. This paper aims at modeling and predicting GDP and CPI in Jordan. In order to achieve this goal, the study applied the Box- Jenkins (JB) methodology for the period 1976-2019. Based on the results, ARIMA (3,1,1) found to be the best model for the GDP. In addition, ARIMA (1,1,0) was the best model for forecasting the CPI. The results were supported with the findings of the stationarity and identification rules test of time series under using AIC and SIC criterion. The forecasted values of the GDP and the CPI for the next three years (2020-2022) were (29342.12, 32095.10, 35106.36 million JD) and (128.31, 133.28, 139.28) respectively. Compared with 2019, the GDP is forecasted to decrease in 2020, while the CPI is forecasted to increase in 2020. This implies that the Jordanian economy is tending toward stagflation. After 2020, both GDP and CPI increased, which indicates that Jordanian economy is tending toward cost-push inflation.

scholarly journals Oil Price Shocks and Economic Activity: The Asymmetric Cointegration Approach in South Africa

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 685-713 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ntokozo Nzimande ◽  
Simiso Msomi
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Asymmetric Response ◽  
Asymmetric Cointegration

This study examines the link between oil prices and economic activity proxied by gross domestic product in the context of South Africa. The study employs the asymmetric approach proposed by Schorderet (2004) and advanced by Lardic and Mignon (2008). Asymmetric cointegration is used because it is believed that increasing and decreasing oil prices do not have similar or equal impacts on economic activity. In this study we document evidence for an asymmetric response of economic activity to oil price shocks. Further, our findings suggest that negative oil price shocks are important relative to positive oil price shocks.

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