A rumor control competition model considering intervention of the official rumor-refuting information

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (09) ◽  
pp. 2050123
Author(s):  
Yi Zhang ◽  
Jiuping Xu ◽  
Yue Wu
Keyword(s):  
Model Simulation ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Mean Field ◽  
Field Method ◽  
Competition Model ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Release Time ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
The Government ◽  
Rumor Control

To avoid social and economic losses, governments need to control rumor propagation by releasing official rumor-refuting information (ORI) to dispel the rumors. Therefore, understanding the complex competition mechanism between ORI and rumors is key to successfully refuting rumors. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of the function of ORI in suppressing and quashing rumors. First, the influencing factors were determined from which a competition model was constructed and the quenched mean-field method employed to determine the rumor outbreak threshold. It was found that public cognition could affect the rumor threshold and lead to rumor depletion, which was confirmed in a model simulation. The simulation results also indicated that government credibility and the release time of ORI played a critical role in controlling rumors. Specifically, it was found that when government credibility was high, the ORI release was able to quash the rumor spread. And it is shown that the government should release the ORI as soon as possible, and ensure the continuous dissemination of ORI to dispel rumors effectively.

Pengelolaan Data Terintegrasi Berdasarkan Instrumen Akreditasi Perguruan Tinggi 3.0 Menggunakan Zachman Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ardhin Primadewi ◽  
Mukhtar Hanafi
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Self Evaluation ◽  
The Core ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
Performance Report ◽  
Total Data ◽  
Zachman Framework ◽  
The Government ◽  
Data Gap ◽  
Education Performance

Higher education in Indonesia is regulated by the government with the Higher Education Accreditation (APT). In APT 3.0, Higher Education is required to be able to present performance data in the form of a Higher Education Performance Report (LKPT) as a reference in making a Self-Evaluation Report (LED). However, it is necessary to have an in-depth analysis to determine the gaps in the data required by Higher Education according to the APT 3.0 standard. The process of integrating the samples refer to the Zachman Framework (ZF). The results of this simplification that the data is available in support of APT 3.0 approximately 79% of the total data both inside and outside the core business of Higher Education and is well managed in an integrated database. The remaining 21% of the data that are not available is spread across several information systems, especially SIMMawa, SIMHumas and Cooperation, and SIMAKU. This shows that the change in accreditation standards that have been in effect since April 2019 has created a significant data gap for Higher Education. This research also produced an alternative model of integrated data management that can be used as input for Information System developers in the Higher Education scope.

scholarly journals Public Personnel Management Process Capability Assessment

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebru Gökalp ◽  
Onur Demirörs ◽  
P. Erhan Eren
Keyword(s):  
Personnel Management ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Process Capability ◽  
Software Process Improvement ◽  
Management Process ◽  
Process Definition ◽  
Multiple Case ◽  
Generate Process ◽  
The Government ◽  
Definition Of

Personnel management plays a critical role in the success of public organizations. Our literature review shows that there is a lack of systematic guidance on how to improve Public Personnel Management Process (PPMP) quality. Software Process Improvement and Capability Determination (SPICE) is a process assessment framework that is successfully used by software organizations during the past two decades. The framework can also be used as a baseline to generate process capability models for different specific domains/sectors. We have utilized this approach for the government domain and we developed the process definition of PPMP. To observe the benefits and usability of the model, we have performed a multiple case study, including the assessments of three organizations’ PPMP capability levels and the development of action plans for PPMP improvement. The findings show that the proposed approach is applicable for identifying the PPMP capability levels and is capable of providing a roadmap for moving to the next level.

Micromechanics Method to Evaluate Fatigue Life of Ni-Based Superalloys during Morphological Evolution

2008 ◽  
Vol 385-387 ◽  
pp. 221-224
Author(s):  
Wen Ping Wu ◽  
Ya Fang Guo ◽  
Yue Sheng Wang
Keyword(s):  
Fatigue Life ◽  
Plastic Strain ◽  
Life Prediction ◽  
Morphological Evolution ◽  
Mean Field ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Field Method ◽  
External Stress ◽  
Equivalent Inclusion ◽  
Evolution Of Precipitates

A quantitative life prediction method has been proposed to evaluate fatigue life during morphological evolution of precipitates in Ni-based superalloys. The method is essentially based on Eshelby’s equivalent inclusion theory and Mori-Tanaka’s mean field method. The shape stability and life prediction are discussed when the external stress and matrix plastic strain are applied. The calculated results show that the fatigue life is closely related with microstructures evolution of precipitates. The magnitude and sign of the external stress and matrix plastic strain have an important effect on fatigue life of Ni-based superalloys during the morphological evolution of precipitates.

Costa Rica in 1948: Cold War or Local War?

1996 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 465-493 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcia Olander
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Cold War ◽  
Costa Rica ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Costa Rican ◽  
Panama Canal Zone ◽  
First Case ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Cold War ◽  
The U.S

The years following World War Two produced a strong resurgence of U.S. intervention in Central America and the Caribbean couched in Cold War terms. Although the U.S. intervention in Guatemala to overthrow the government of Jacobo Arbenz in 1954 has generally been seen as the first case of Cold War covert anti-Communist intervention in Latin America, several scholars have raised questions about U.S. involvement in a 1948 Costa Rican civil war in which Communism played a critical role. In a 1993 article in The Americas, Kyle Longley argued that “the U.S. response to the Costa Rican Revolution of 1948, not the Guatemalan affair, marked the origins of the Cold War in Latin America.” The U.S. “actively interfered,” and achieved “comparable results in Costa Rica as in Guatemala: the removal of a perceived Communist threat.” Other authors have argued, even, that the U.S. had prepared an invasion force in the Panama Canal Zone to pacify the country. The fifty years of Cold War anti-Communism entitles one to be skeptical of U.S. non-intervention in a Central American conflict involving Communism. Costa Ricans, aware of a long tradition of U.S. intervention in the region, also assumed that the U.S. would intervene. Most, if not all, were expecting intervention and one key government figure described U.S. pressure as like “the air, which is felt, even if it cannot be seen.” Yet, historians must do more than just “feel” intervention. Subsequent Cold War intervention may make it difficult to appraise the 1948 events in Costa Rica objectively. Statements like Longley's that “it is hard to believe that in early 1948 … Washington would not favor policies that ensured the removal of the [Communist Party] Vanguard,” although logical, do not coincide with the facts of the U.S. role in the conflict.

scholarly journals How Do Political Features Influence the Co-Production of Government Projects? A Case Study of a Medium-Sized Chinese City

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7600
Author(s):  
Wenting Ma ◽  
Rui Mu ◽  
Martin de Jong
Keyword(s):  
Performance Measurement ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Chinese City ◽  
Production Stages ◽  
Political Background ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Western Experience ◽  
The Impact

Co-production is a solution by which the government provides public services. Co-production theory is built upon Western experience and currently focuses on the types of co-production in different policy stages, the barriers and governance strategies for co-production. However, little attention is paid to how political background will influence the co-production process. To fill the gap, we analyzed a case of co-production that occurred in China, and we characterized the political background as consisting of three main political features: political mobility, central–local relations, and performance measurement. Based on an in-depth case study of a government project in a medium-sized Chinese city, the impact and the changes of political features affecting governmental projects in different co-production stages are analyzed and assessed. We find that political features play a critical role in the co-production of China’s large government projects and may separately and jointly affect co-production. Government performance measurement affects the co-design and co-implementation of projects. Political mobility and changes in local government and performance measurement also affect the co-implementation continuity of the project. Political focus affects the co-design of projects. Central-local relations influence the support from higher government and the actual practices of lower government in the co-implementation stage.

scholarly journals Creating Ecotourism in Costa Rica, 1970–2000

2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 146-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
GEOFFREY JONES ◽  
ANDREW SPADAFORA
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Knowledge Spillovers ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Environmentally Sustainable ◽  
National Image ◽  
Positive Externalities ◽  
Resource Endowment ◽  
The Government ◽  
New Industry

Between the 1970s and the 2000s, Costa Rica became established as the world’s leading ecotourism destination. This article argues that although Costa Rica benefited from biodiversity and a pleasant climate, the country’s preeminence in ecotourism requires more than a natural resource endowment explanation. While previous literature has emphasized the efforts of the government and nongovernment organizations, this article demonstrates the critical role of small entrepreneurs in the co-creation of the industry. Making extensive use of oral history, the article explores the role of tour companies in drawing affluent Western ecotourists to the country, and of the creators of ecolodges and other forms of accommodation in providing them with somewhere to stay. Clustering created positive externalities, drawing new entrepreneurs into the industry who could also learn from knowledge spillovers. There were downsides to the new industry. The creation of the national image of a natural paradise enabled many businesses which were not environmentally sustainable to free ride on the green image.

Extended mean-field method for predicting yield behaviors of porous materials

2007 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masakazu Tane ◽  
Tetsu Ichitsubo ◽  
Masahiko Hirao ◽  
Hideo Nakajima
Keyword(s):  
Porous Materials ◽  
Mean Field ◽  
Field Method

scholarly journals Estimation of the Extreme Distribution Model of Economic Losses Due to Outbreaks Using the POT Method with Newton Raphson Iteration

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-45
Author(s):  
Riza Adrian Ibrahim ◽  
Sukono Sukono ◽  
Riaman Riaman
Keyword(s):  
Estimation Method ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Value Theory ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Extreme Distribution ◽  
Newton Raphson ◽  
The Government ◽  
Raphson Iteration

Extreme distribution is the distribution of a random variable that focuses on determining the probability of small values in the tail areaof the distribution. This distribution is widely used in various fields, one of which is reinsurance. An outbreak catastrophe is non-natural disaster that can pose an extreme risk of economic loss to a country that is exposed to it. To anticipate this risk, the government of a country can insure it to a reinsurance company which is then linkedto bonds in the capital market so that new securities are issued, namely outbreakcatastrophe bonds. In pricing, knowledge of the extreme distribution of economic losses due to outbreak catastrophe is indispensable. Therefore, this study aims to determine the extreme distribution model of economic losses due to outbreak catastrophe whose models will be determined by the approaches and methods of Extreme Value Theory and Peaks Over Threshold, respectively. The threshold value parameter of the model will be estimated by Kurtosis Method, while the other parameters will be estimated with Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method based on Newton-Raphson Iteration. The result of the research obtained is the resulting model of extreme value distribution of economic losses due to outbreak catastrophe that can be used by reinsurance companies as a tool in determining the value of risk in the outbreak catastrophe bonds.

scholarly journals ESTIMATION OF THE ECONOMIC LOSSES POTENTIAL DUE TO UNDERWEIGHT TODDLERS IN INDONESIA IN 2013

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 111
Author(s):  
Brigitte Sarah Renyoet
Keyword(s):  
Secondary Data ◽  
Premature Death ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Health And Nutrition ◽  
Nutrition Programs ◽  
Central Statistical ◽  
The Government ◽  
Statistical Agency

Millions of children and adolescents in Indonesia today still show a high number of premature death in children who are moderately malnourished and severely malnourished. The research objective was to calculate the estimated economic losses potential due to underweight among toddlers in Indonesia. This was a descriptive research by analyzing secondary data of nutritional status and socio-economic indicators in 2013 from the Indonesian Ministry of Health and Central Statistical Agency. The formula to calculate potential economic loss is based on Konig’s formula (1995) and the correction factor from research by Horton (1999). The results showed that the average economic loss in 32 provinces in Indonesia is approximately IDR 93 billion – IDR 417 billion, which seen from the GRDP percentage, the economic loss due to a decrease in productivity amounted to 2% and 9% or about 0.1–0.7% of the average GRDP of the provinces in Indonesia. Nationally, economic losses due to low productivity in underweight toddlers reach IDR 3,054 billion – IDR 13,746 billion (0.04–0.2%) of Indonesia’s total GDP. The results of this study are expected to show that the importance of this issue was handled and can assist the government in planning for health and nutrition programs targeted to human resources in Indonesia qualifi ed and productive.

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