scholarly journals Mathematical Modelling, Simulation, and Optimal Control of the 2014 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amira Rachah ◽  
Delfim F. M. Torres
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Optimal Control ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
World Health ◽  
Multiple Shooting ◽  
Multiple Shooting Method ◽  
Major Outbreak ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Spread Of Infection ◽  
The Impact

The Ebola virus is currently one of the most virulent pathogens for humans. The latest major outbreak occurred in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia in 2014. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the virus and simulate it. In this paper, we begin by studying a simple mathematical model that describes the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Liberia. Then, we use numerical simulations and available data provided by the World Health Organization to validate the obtained mathematical model. Moreover, we develop a new mathematical model including vaccination of individuals. We discuss different cases of vaccination in order to predict the effect of vaccination on the infected individuals over time. Finally, we apply optimal control to study the impact of vaccination on the spread of the Ebola virus. The optimal control problem is solved numerically by using a direct multiple shooting method.

scholarly journals Quarantine for Zika Virus? Where is the Science?

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 704-706 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristi L. Koenig
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Zika Virus ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Rapid Test ◽  
Signs And Symptoms ◽  
World Health ◽  
Virus Infections ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Spread Of Infection

AbstractIn January 2016, the World Health Organization warned that Zika virus is “spreading explosively” in the Americas and that up to 4 million infections could be present worldwide within a year. Soon thereafter, some politicians and authors publicly advocated for quarantine of travelers returning from regions where mosquitoes carrying Zika virus are prevalent. The public health tool of quarantine can be used to prevent the spread of infection by restricting the movement of persons who have been exposed to a deadly disease that can be transmitted from person to person before symptom onset. With 80% of Zika virus infections being asymptomatic, no rapid test being available to detect the virus, and primary transmission being via the bites of certain mosquitoes, application of quarantine in this setting is not scientifically sound or practically feasible. Rather, public health interventions should focus on preventing bites from infected mosquitoes, counseling pregnant women on the risks of fetal microcephaly and other birth defects, and identifying patients with signs and symptoms of Guillain-Barré syndrome. As was seen in the Ebola virus disease outbreak of 2014, non-evidence-based factors can influence policy decisions. Public health experts must ensure that policy makers are informed that quarantine is not a scientifically sound approach for the control of Zika virus. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;0:1–3)

scholarly journals Impacts of Ebola on Supply Chains in MRB Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 122-139
Author(s):  
Peter Davis Sumo
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chains ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
World Health ◽  
Governmental Agencies ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this paper is to present a science-based narrative of the impact of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) on the supply chains of the major commodities of Liberia. Scientific literatures from appropriate journals, newspapers, trade data of applicable ministries and governmental agencies, data on Ebola from websites of World Health Organization (WHO), Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), Center for Disease and Control and Prevention (CDC), World Bank, the International Monetary Funds (IMF) and other relevant institutions are used extensively while also employing a market chain approach to represent the overall supply chains of these products. The review reveals, among others, the significant disruption to the flow of goods and the decrease in output of the main export commodities of Liberia. It also shows a fall in the real GDP growth rate of the Mano River Basin (MRB) countries during the Ebola years. The paper identifies that the specific mechanisms through which the supply chains were disrupted were as a result of fear and government’s regulation. Additionally, it provides a practical conduit for the diversification of the rubber industry. Given the complex web of supply chains of just a single product, this effort is in no way an exhaustive review on the impact of the EVD on supply chains of commodities dealt with herein, let alone the overall impact of EVD on the country as a whole. Obviously, this review is also limited in terms of scope and extent. This review is a useful introduction to investigators who might want to commit to research in this particular aspect of the impact of the EVD vis-a-vis its impact on supply chains in Liberia or on a broader level, the MRB Countries.

scholarly journals Mathematical Modelling to Assess the Impact of Lockdown on COVID-19 Transmission in India: Model Development and Validation

10.2196/19368 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. e19368 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bakiya Ambikapathy ◽  
Kamalanand Krishnamurthy
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Intervention Strategy ◽  
World Health ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Heavy Burden ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
In Transit ◽  
The Impact

Background The World Health Organization has declared the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) to be a public health emergency; at present, India is facing a major threat of community spread. We developed a mathematical model for investigating and predicting the effects of lockdown on future COVID-19 cases with a specific focus on India. Objective The objective of this work was to develop and validate a mathematical model and to assess the impact of various lockdown scenarios on COVID-19 transmission in India. Methods A model consisting of a framework of ordinary differential equations was developed by incorporating the actual reported cases in 14 countries. After validation, the model was applied to predict COVID-19 transmission in India for different intervention scenarios in terms of lockdown for 4, 14, 21, 42, and 60 days. We also assessed the situations of enhanced exposure due to aggregation of individuals in transit stations and shopping malls before the lockdown. Results The developed model is efficient in predicting the number of COVID-19 cases compared to the actual reported cases in 14 countries. For India, the model predicted marked reductions in cases for the intervention periods of 14 and 21 days of lockdown and significant reduction for 42 days of lockdown. Such intervention exceeding 42 days does not result in measurable improvement. Finally, for the scenario of “panic shopping” or situations where there is a sudden increase in the factors leading to higher exposure to infection, the model predicted an exponential transmission, resulting in failure of the considered intervention strategy. Conclusions Implementation of a strict lockdown for a period of at least 21 days is expected to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. However, a further extension of up to 42 days is required to significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19 in India. Any relaxation in the lockdown may lead to exponential transmission, resulting in a heavy burden on the health care system in the country.

Ebola virus disease: are you up to date?

2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (12) ◽  
pp. 572-577
Author(s):  
Daniel Beese ◽  
Gail Beckett
Keyword(s):  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Democratic Republic Of Congo ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
World Health ◽  
Republic Of Congo ◽  
Major Outbreak ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Uk ◽  
And Control

While the risk of seeing cases of Ebola in general practice in the UK remains low, Daniel Beese and Gail Beckett explain the importance of keeping up to date with what to do in light of the recent disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo In July 2019, an outbreak of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. During the last major outbreak, only a few patients with Ebola were cared for by the NHS, but media interest was high and public anxiety widespread. The fear of infection saw much time and effort put into developing a plethora of guidance, policies and protocols to prevent and control any potential risk of spread. As it is now 4 years since the last outbreak, it is an opportune time to review response arrangements.

scholarly journals Mathematical Modelling to Assess the Impact of Lockdown on COVID-19 Transmission in India: Model Development and Validation (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bakiya Ambikapathy ◽  
Kamalanand Krishnamurthy
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Intervention Strategy ◽  
World Health ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Heavy Burden ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
In Transit ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND The World Health Organization has declared the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) to be a public health emergency; at present, India is facing a major threat of community spread. We developed a mathematical model for investigating and predicting the effects of lockdown on future COVID-19 cases with a specific focus on India. OBJECTIVE The objective of this work was to develop and validate a mathematical model and to assess the impact of various lockdown scenarios on COVID-19 transmission in India. METHODS A model consisting of a framework of ordinary differential equations was developed by incorporating the actual reported cases in 14 countries. After validation, the model was applied to predict COVID-19 transmission in India for different intervention scenarios in terms of lockdown for 4, 14, 21, 42, and 60 days. We also assessed the situations of enhanced exposure due to aggregation of individuals in transit stations and shopping malls before the lockdown. RESULTS The developed model is efficient in predicting the number of COVID-19 cases compared to the actual reported cases in 14 countries. For India, the model predicted marked reductions in cases for the intervention periods of 14 and 21 days of lockdown and significant reduction for 42 days of lockdown. Such intervention exceeding 42 days does not result in measurable improvement. Finally, for the scenario of “panic shopping” or situations where there is a sudden increase in the factors leading to higher exposure to infection, the model predicted an exponential transmission, resulting in failure of the considered intervention strategy. CONCLUSIONS Implementation of a strict lockdown for a period of at least 21 days is expected to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. However, a further extension of up to 42 days is required to significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19 in India. Any relaxation in the lockdown may lead to exponential transmission, resulting in a heavy burden on the health care system in the country.

Novel Coronavirus 2019 Outbreak: A Global Epidemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (12) ◽  
pp. 1458-1464
Author(s):  
Sweta Kamboj ◽  
Rohit Kamboj ◽  
Shikha Kamboj ◽  
Kumar Guarve ◽  
Rohit Dutt
Keyword(s):  
World Health ◽  
Upper Respiratory Tract ◽  
Global Epidemic ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Government ◽  
Tract Disease ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

Background: In the 1960s, the human coronavirus was designated, which is responsible for the upper respiratory tract disease in children. Back in 2003, mainly 5 new coronaviruses were recognized. This study directly pursues to govern knowledge, attitude and practice of viral and droplet infection isolation safeguard among the researchers during the outbreak of the COVID-19. Introduction: Coronavirus is a proteinaceous and infectious pathogen. It is an etiological agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Coronavirus, appeared in China from the seafood and poultry market last year, which has spread in various countries, and has caused several deaths. Methods: The literature data has been taken from different search platforms like PubMed, Science Direct, Embase, Web of Science, who.int portal and complied. Results: Corona virology study will be more advanced and outstanding in recent years. COVID-19 epidemic is a threatening reminder not solely for one country but all over the universe. Conclusion: In this review article, we encapsulated the pathogenesis, geographical spread of coronavirus worldwide, also discussed the perspective of diagnosis, effective treatment, and primary recommendations by the World Health Organization, and guidelines of the government to slow down the impact of the virus are also optimistic, efficacious and obliging for the public health. However, it will take a prolonged time in the future to overcome this epidemic.

viewpoint TIME TO RESTART: PROTOCOL OF RESUMPTION OF ACTIVITIES OF A DERMATOLOGICAL CLINIC OF A LEVEL II HOSPITAL IN THE COVID-19 ERA. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Diotallevi ◽  
Anna Campanati ◽  
Giulia Radi ◽  
Oriana Simonetti ◽  
Emanuela Martina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
World Health ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Staff Members ◽  
Level Ii ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Spread Of Infection ◽  
Hospital Wards ◽  
Medical And Healthcare

UNSTRUCTURED Two months have passed since the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the pandemic of the Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19), caused by the SARS CoV-2 virus, on March 11, 2020. Medical and healthcare workers have continued to be on the frontline to defeat this disease, however, continual changes are being made to their working habits which are proving to be difficult. Since the beginning of the pandemic, a major reorganisation of all hospital wards, including dermatological wards, has been carried out in order to make medical and nursing staff available in COVID wards and to prevent the spread of infection. These strategies, which were also adopted in our clinic, proved to be effective, as no staff members or patients were infected by the virus. Now, thanks to the global decrease in SARS-CovV2 infections, it is necessary to make dermatological wards accessible to patients again, but it is also essential to adopt specific protocols to avoid a new wave of infections.

ARIMA model for forecasting COVID-19 Death cases in India (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeya Sutha M
Keyword(s):  
Arima Model ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
World Health ◽  
The People ◽  
The World ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Spread Of Infection ◽  
Death Cases

UNSTRUCTURED COVID-19, the disease caused by a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is a highly contagious disease. On January 30, 2020 the World Health Organization declared the outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. As of July 25, 2020; 15,947,292 laboratory-confirmed and 642,814 deaths have been reported globally. India has reported 1,338,928 confirmed cases and 31,412 deaths till date. This paper presents different aspects of COVID-19, visualization of the spread of infection and presents the ARIMA model for forecasting the status of COVID-19 death cases in the next 50 days in order to take necessary precaution by the Government to save the people.

Characterizing the effectiveness of COVID-19 mitigation measures: A data-centric approach (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukman Olagoke ◽  
Ahmet E. Topcu
Keyword(s):  
Control Measure ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
The World ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND COVID-19 represents a serious threat to both national health and economic systems. To curb this pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a series of COVID-19 public safety guidelines. Different countries around the world initiated different measures in line with the WHO guidelines to mitigate and investigate the spread of COVID-19 in their territories. OBJECTIVE The aim of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of these control measures using a data-centric approach. METHODS We begin with a simple text analysis of coronavirus-related articles and show that reports on similar outbreaks in the past strongly proposed similar control measures. This reaffirms the fact that these control measures are in order. Subsequently, we propose a simple performance statistic that quantifies general performance and performance under the different measures that were initiated. A density based clustering of based on performance statistic was carried out to group countries based on performance. RESULTS The performance statistic helps evaluate quantitatively the impact of COVID-19 control measures. Countries tend show variability in performance under different control measures. The performance statistic has negative correlation with cases of death which is a useful characteristics for COVID-19 control measure performance analysis. A web-based time-line visualization that enables comparison of performances and cases across continents and subregions is presented. CONCLUSIONS The performance metric is relevant for the analysis of the impact of COVID-19 control measures. This can help caregivers and policymakers identify effective control measures and reduce cases of death due to COVID-19. The interactive web visualizer provides easily digested and quick feedback to augment decision-making processes in the COVID-19 response measures evaluation. CLINICALTRIAL Not Applicable

scholarly journals The impact of coronavirus outbreak on breastfeeding guidelines among Brazilian hospitals and maternity services: a cross-sectional study

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Walusa Assad Gonçalves-Ferri ◽  
◽  
Fábia Martins Pereira-Cellini ◽  
Kelly Coca ◽  
Davi Casale Aragon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
World Health ◽  
Breastfeeding Support ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Maternity Services ◽  
Community Needs ◽  
Care Services ◽  
Skin Contact ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background The World Health Organization recognizes exclusive breastfeeding a safe source of nutrition available for children in most humanitarian emergencies, as in the current pandemic caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Despite the Brazilian national guideline protecting breastfeeding practices, there are many concerns about protecting infants from their infected mothers. This study aimed to analyze how the Brazilian hospitals and maternity services promote and support mothers suspected or diagnosed with coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Methods This is a descriptive cross-sectional and multicenter study which collected data from 24 Brazilian hospitals and maternity services between March and July 2020. Representatives of the institutions completed a questionnaire based on acts to promote and support breastfeeding, the Baby-Friendly Hospital Initiative, and Brazil’s federal law recommendations. Results The results showed that in delivery rooms, 98.5% of the services prohibited immediate and uninterrupted skin-to-skin contact between mothers and their infants and did not support mothers to initiate breastfeeding in the first hour. On the postnatal ward, 98.5% of the services allowed breastfeeding while implementing respiratory hygiene practices to prevent transmission of COVID-19. Companions for mothers were forbidden in 83.3% of the hospitals. Hospital discharge was mostly between 24 and 28 h (79.1%); discharge guidelines were not individualized. Additionally, a lack of support was noticed from the home environment’s health community network (83.3%). Hospital and home breast pumping were allowed (87.5%), but breast milk donation was not accepted (95.8%). There was a lack of guidance regarding the use of infant comforting strategies. Guidelines specific for vulnerable populations were not covered in the material evaluated. Conclusions In Brazil, hospitals have not followed recommendations to protect, promote, and support breastfeeding during the COVID-19 outbreak. The disagreement between international guidelines has been a major issue. The absence of recommendations on breastfeeding support during the pandemic led to difficulties in developing standards among hospitals in different regions of Brazil and other countries worldwide. The scientific community needs to discuss how to improve maternal and infant care services to protect breastfeeding in the current pandemic.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document