scholarly journals Analysis and Reduction of Systematic Errors through a Seamless Approach to Modeling Weather and Climate

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (22) ◽  
pp. 5933-5957 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. M. Martin ◽  
S. F. Milton ◽  
C. A. Senior ◽  
M. E. Brooks ◽  
S. Ineson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Systematic Errors ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract The reduction of systematic errors is a continuing challenge for model development. Feedbacks and compensating errors in climate models often make finding the source of a systematic error difficult. In this paper, it is shown how model development can benefit from the use of the same model across a range of temporal and spatial scales. Two particular systematic errors are examined: tropical circulation and precipitation distribution, and summer land surface temperature and moisture biases over Northern Hemisphere continental regions. Each of these errors affects the model performance on time scales ranging from a few days to several decades. In both cases, the characteristics of the long-time-scale errors are found to develop during the first few days of simulation, before any large-scale feedbacks have taken place. The ability to compare the model diagnostics from the first few days of a forecast, initialized from a realistic atmospheric state, directly with observations has allowed physical deficiencies in the physical parameterizations to be identified that, when corrected, lead to improvements across the full range of time scales. This study highlights the benefits of a seamless prediction system across a wide range of time scales.

Merged Statistical Analyses of Historical Monthly Precipitation Anomalies Beginning 1900

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (21) ◽  
pp. 5755-5770 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas M. Smith ◽  
Phillip A. Arkin ◽  
Mathew R. P. Sapiano ◽  
Ching-Yee Chang
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Phase Relationship ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Interannual Variations

Abstract A monthly reconstruction of precipitation beginning in 1900 is presented. The reconstruction resolves interannual and longer time scales and spatial scales larger than 5° over both land and oceans. Because of different land and ocean data availability, the reconstruction combines two separate historical reconstructions. One analyzes interannual variations directly by fitting gauge-based anomalies to large-scale spatial modes. This direct reconstruction is used for land anomalies and interannual oceanic anomalies. The other analyzes annual and longer variations indirectly from correlations with analyzed sea surface temperature and sea level pressure. This indirect reconstruction is used for oceanic variations with time scales longer than interannual. In addition, a method of estimating reconstruction errors is also presented. Over land the reconstruction is a filtered representation of the gauge data with data gaps filled. Over oceans the reconstruction gives an estimate of the atmospheric response to changing temperature and pressure, combined with interannual variations. The reconstruction makes it possible to evaluate global precipitation variations for periods much longer than the satellite period, which begins in 1979. Evaluations show some large-scale similarities with coupled model precipitation variations over the twentieth century, including an increasing tendency over the century. The reconstructed land and sea trends tend to be out of phase at low latitudes, similar to the out-of-phase relationship for interannual variations. This reconstruction may be used for climate monitoring, for statistical climate studies of the twentieth century, and for helping to evaluate dynamic climate models. In the future the possibility of improving the reconstruction will be explored by further improving the analysis methods and including additional data.

scholarly journals Canopy-scale biophysical controls of transpiration and evaporation in the Amazon Basin

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 4237-4264 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaniska Mallick ◽  
Ivonne Trebs ◽  
Eva Boegh ◽  
Laura Giustarini ◽  
Martin Schlerf ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Amazon Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Rooting Depth ◽  
Combining Data ◽  
Biophysical Controls

Abstract. Canopy and aerodynamic conductances (gC and gA) are two of the key land surface biophysical variables that control the land surface response of land surface schemes in climate models. Their representation is crucial for predicting transpiration (λET) and evaporation (λEE) flux components of the terrestrial latent heat flux (λE), which has important implications for global climate change and water resource management. By physical integration of radiometric surface temperature (TR) into an integrated framework of the Penman–Monteith and Shuttleworth–Wallace models, we present a novel approach to directly quantify the canopy-scale biophysical controls on λET and λEE over multiple plant functional types (PFTs) in the Amazon Basin. Combining data from six LBA (Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia) eddy covariance tower sites and a TR-driven physically based modeling approach, we identified the canopy-scale feedback-response mechanism between gC, λET, and atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (DA), without using any leaf-scale empirical parameterizations for the modeling. The TR-based model shows minor biophysical control on λET during the wet (rainy) seasons where λET becomes predominantly radiation driven and net radiation (RN) determines 75 to 80 % of the variances of λET. However, biophysical control on λET is dramatically increased during the dry seasons, and particularly the 2005 drought year, explaining 50 to 65 % of the variances of λET, and indicates λET to be substantially soil moisture driven during the rainfall deficit phase. Despite substantial differences in gA between forests and pastures, very similar canopy–atmosphere "coupling" was found in these two biomes due to soil moisture-induced decrease in gC in the pasture. This revealed the pragmatic aspect of the TR-driven model behavior that exhibits a high sensitivity of gC to per unit change in wetness as opposed to gA that is marginally sensitive to surface wetness variability. Our results reveal the occurrence of a significant hysteresis between λET and gC during the dry season for the pasture sites, which is attributed to relatively low soil water availability as compared to the rainforests, likely due to differences in rooting depth between the two systems. Evaporation was significantly influenced by gA for all the PFTs and across all wetness conditions. Our analytical framework logically captures the responses of gC and gA to changes in atmospheric radiation, DA, and surface radiometric temperature, and thus appears to be promising for the improvement of existing land–surface–atmosphere exchange parameterizations across a range of spatial scales.

scholarly journals Canopy-scale biophysical controls of transpiration and evaporation in the Amazon Basin

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaniska Mallick ◽  
Ivonne Trebs ◽  
Eva Boegh ◽  
Laura Giustarini ◽  
Martin Schlerf ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Amazon Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Combining Data

Abstract. Canopy and aerodynamic conductances (gC and gA) are some of the key land surface variables determining the land surface response of climate models. Their representation is crucial for predicting transpiration (λET) and evaporation (λEE), which has important implications for global climate change and water resource management. Here, we present a novel approach to directly quantify the controls of the canopy-scale conductances on λET and λEE over multiple plant functions types (PFTs) in the Amazon Basin. Combining data from six LBA (Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia) eddy covariance tower sites and a physically-based modeling approach, we identified the canopy-scale feedback-response mechanism between gC, λET, and atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (DA), which was originally postulated to occur at the leaf-scale. We show minor biophysical control on λET under wet conditions where net radiation (RN) determines 75 % to 80 % of the variances of λET. However, biophysical control on λET is amplified during the drought year (2005) and dry conditions, explaining 50 % to 65 % of the variances of λET. Despite substantial differences in gA, nearly similar “coupling” was found in forests and pastures due to the increase of gC induced by soil moisture. This suggests that the relative response of gC to per unit change of wetness is significantly higher compared to gA. Our results reveal the occurrence of a larger magnitude of hysteresis between λET and gC during the dry season for the pasture sites, which is attributed to relatively low soil water availability compared to the rainforest. Evaporation was significantly influenced by gA for all the PFTs and across all wetness conditions. Our analytical framework faithfully captures the responses of gC and gA to changing atmospheric radiation, DA, and surface skin temperature, and, thus appears to be promising for the improvement of existing land surface parameterisations at a range of spatial scales.

scholarly journals Repeated surveying over 6 years reveals that fine-scale habitat variables are key to tropical mountain ant assemblage composition and functional diversity

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mulalo M. Muluvhahothe ◽  
Grant S. Joseph ◽  
Colleen L. Seymour ◽  
Thinandavha C. Munyai ◽  
Stefan H. Foord
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Composition ◽  
High Altitude ◽  
Functional Diversity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Composition Analysis ◽  
Fine Scale

AbstractHigh-altitude-adapted ectotherms can escape competition from dominant species by tolerating low temperatures at cooler elevations, but climate change is eroding such advantages. Studies evaluating broad-scale impacts of global change for high-altitude organisms often overlook the mitigating role of biotic factors. Yet, at fine spatial-scales, vegetation-associated microclimates provide refuges from climatic extremes. Using one of the largest standardised data sets collected to date, we tested how ant species composition and functional diversity (i.e., the range and value of species traits found within assemblages) respond to large-scale abiotic factors (altitude, aspect), and fine-scale factors (vegetation, soil structure) along an elevational gradient in tropical Africa. Altitude emerged as the principal factor explaining species composition. Analysis of nestedness and turnover components of beta diversity indicated that ant assemblages are specific to each elevation, so species are not filtered out but replaced with new species as elevation increases. Similarity of assemblages over time (assessed using beta decay) did not change significantly at low and mid elevations but declined at the highest elevations. Assemblages also differed between northern and southern mountain aspects, although at highest elevations, composition was restricted to a set of species found on both aspects. Functional diversity was not explained by large scale variables like elevation, but by factors associated with elevation that operate at fine scales (i.e., temperature and habitat structure). Our findings highlight the significance of fine-scale variables in predicting organisms’ responses to changing temperature, offering management possibilities that might dilute climate change impacts, and caution when predicting assemblage responses using climate models, alone.

scholarly journals Cities Exacerbate Climate Warming

Urban Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Lahouari Bounoua ◽  
Kurtis Thome ◽  
Joseph Nigro
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
The Us

Urbanization is a complex land transformation not explicitly resolved within large-scale climate models. Long-term timeseries of high-resolution satellite data are essential to characterize urbanization within land surface models and to assess its contribution to surface temperature changes. The potential for additional surface warming from urbanization-induced land use change is investigated and decoupled from that due to change in climate over the continental US using a decadal timescale. We show that, aggregated over the US, the summer mean urban-induced surface temperature increased by 0.15 °C, with a warming of 0.24 °C in cities built in vegetated areas and a cooling of 0.25 °C in cities built in non-vegetated arid areas. This temperature change is comparable in magnitude to the 0.13 °C/decade global warming trend observed over the last 50 years caused by increased CO2. We also show that the effect of urban-induced change on surface temperature is felt above and beyond that of the CO2 effect. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider urbanization feedback to put a limit on the worldwide mean temperature increase.

scholarly journals Coupling between Large-Scale Atmospheric Processes and Mesoscale Land–Atmosphere Interactions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains during Summer. Part II: Mean Impacts of the Mesoscale

2004 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 1247-1258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher P. Weaver
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Surface Heterogeneity ◽  
Atmospheric Modeling ◽  
Mesoscale Circulations ◽  
Southern Great Plains ◽  
Atmospheric Processes

Abstract This is Part II of a two-part study of mesoscale land–atmosphere interactions in the summertime U.S. Southern Great Plains. Part I focused on case studies drawn from monthlong (July 1995–97), high-resolution Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) simulations carried out to investigate these interactions. These case studies were chosen to highlight key features of the lower-tropospheric mesoscale circulations that frequently arise in this region and season due to mesoscale heterogeneity in the surface fluxes. In this paper, Part II, the RAMS-simulated mesoscale dynamical processes described in the Part I case studies are examined from a domain-averaged perspective to assess their importance in the overall regional hydrometeorology. The spatial statistics of key simulated mesoscale variables—for example, vertical velocity and the vertical flux of water vapor—are quantified here. Composite averages of the mesoscale and large-scale-mean variables over different meteorological or dynamical regimes are also calculated. The main finding is that, during dry periods, or similarly, during periods characterized by large-scale-mean subsidence, the characteristic signature of surface-heterogeneity-forced mesoscale circulations, including enhanced vertical motion variability and enhanced mesoscale fluxes in the lowest few kilometers of the atmosphere, consistently emerges. Furthermore, the impact of these mesoscale circulations is nonnegligible compared to the large-scale dynamics at domain-averaged (200 km × 200 km) spatial scales and weekly to monthly time scales. These findings support the hypothesis that the land– atmosphere interactions associated with mesoscale surface heterogeneity can provide pathways whereby diurnal, mesoscale atmospheric processes can scale up to have more general impacts at larger spatial scales and over longer time scales.

scholarly journals Persistent magnetic vortex flow at a supergranular vertex

2018 ◽  
Vol 610 ◽  
pp. A84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iker S. Requerey ◽  
Basilio Ruiz Cobo ◽  
Milan Gošić ◽  
Luis R. Bellot Rubio
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Fields ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vortex Flow ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Magnetic Vortex ◽  
Magnetic Feature ◽  
Magnetic Element ◽  
Flow Maps ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Intensity Images

Context. Photospheric vortex flows are thought to play a key role in the evolution of magnetic fields. Recent studies show that these swirling motions are ubiquitous in the solar surface convection and occur in a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Their interplay with magnetic fields is poorly characterized, however. Aims. We study the relation between a persistent photospheric vortex flow and the evolution of a network magnetic element at a supergranular vertex. Methods. We used long-duration sequences of continuum intensity images acquired with Hinode and the local correlation-tracking method to derive the horizontal photospheric flows. Supergranular cells are detected as large-scale divergence structures in the flow maps. At their vertices, and cospatial with network magnetic elements, the velocity flows converge on a central point. Results. One of these converging flows is observed as a vortex during the whole 24 h time series. It consists of three consecutive vortices that appear nearly at the same location. At their core, a network magnetic element is also detected. Its evolution is strongly correlated to that of the vortices. The magnetic feature is concentrated and evacuated when it is caught by the vortices and is weakened and fragmented after the whirls disappear. Conclusions. This evolutionary behavior supports the picture presented previously, where a small flux tube becomes stable when it is surrounded by a vortex flow.

scholarly journals Influence of the representation of convection on the mid-Holocene West African Monsoon

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 1665-1684
Author(s):  
Leonore Jungandreas ◽  
Cathy Hohenegger ◽  
Martin Claussen
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
West African ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
African Monsoon ◽  
Monsoonal Precipitation

Abstract. Global climate models experience difficulties in simulating the northward extension of the monsoonal precipitation over north Africa during the mid-Holocene as revealed by proxy data. A common feature of these models is that they usually operate on grids that are too coarse to explicitly resolve convection, but convection is the most essential mechanism leading to precipitation in the West African Monsoon region. Here, we investigate how the representation of tropical deep convection in the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) climate model affects the meridional distribution of monsoonal precipitation during the mid-Holocene by comparing regional simulations of the summer monsoon season (July to September; JAS) with parameterized and explicitly resolved convection. In the explicitly resolved convection simulation, the more localized nature of precipitation and the absence of permanent light precipitation as compared to the parameterized convection simulation is closer to expectations. However, in the JAS mean, the parameterized convection simulation produces more precipitation and extends further north than the explicitly resolved convection simulation, especially between 12 and 17∘ N. The higher precipitation rates in the parameterized convection simulation are consistent with a stronger monsoonal circulation over land. Furthermore, the atmosphere in the parameterized convection simulation is less stably stratified and notably moister. The differences in atmospheric water vapor are the result of substantial differences in the probability distribution function of precipitation and its resulting interactions with the land surface. The parametrization of convection produces light and large-scale precipitation, keeping the soils moist and supporting the development of convection. In contrast, less frequent but locally intense precipitation events lead to high amounts of runoff in the explicitly resolved convection simulations. The stronger runoff inhibits the moistening of the soil during the monsoon season and limits the amount of water available to evaporation in the explicitly resolved convection simulation.

scholarly journals Comparison of generalized non-data-driven lake and reservoir routing models for global-scale hydrologic forecasting of reservoir outflow at diurnal time steps

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 2711-2729 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph L. Gutenson ◽  
Ahmad A. Tavakoly ◽  
Mark D. Wahl ◽  
Michael L. Follum
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Army Corps ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Large Spatial Scale ◽  
Reservoir Routing ◽  
Routing Methods ◽  
Improved Model

Abstract. Large-scale hydrologic forecasts should account for attenuation through lakes and reservoirs when flow regulation is present. Globally generalized methods for approximating outflow are required but must contend with operational complexity and a dearth of information on dam characteristics at global spatial scales. There is currently no consensus on the best approach for approximating reservoir release rates in large spatial scale hydrologic forecasting, particularly at diurnal time steps. This research compares two parsimonious reservoir routing methods at daily steps: Döll et al. (2003) and Hanasaki et al. (2006). These reservoir routing methods have been previously implemented in large-scale hydrologic modeling applications and have been typically evaluated seasonally. These routing methods are compared across 60 reservoirs operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The authors vary empirical coefficients for both reservoir routing methods as part of a sensitivity analysis. The method proposed by Döll et al. (2003) outperformed that presented by Hanasaki et al. (2006) at a daily time step and improved model skill over most run-of-the-river conditions. The temporal resolution of the model influences model performances. The optimal model coefficients varied across the reservoirs in this study and model performance fluctuates between wet years and dry years, and for different configurations such as dams in series. Overall, the method proposed by Döll et al. (2003) could enhance large-scale hydrologic forecasting, but can be subject to instability under certain conditions.

scholarly journals Economics of the disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (25) ◽  
pp. 12261-12269 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Nordhaus
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Social Cost ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Small Contribution ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

Concerns about the impact on large-scale earth systems have taken center stage in the scientific and economic analysis of climate change. The present study analyzes the economic impact of a potential disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS). The study introduces an approach that combines long-run economic growth models, climate models, and reduced-form GIS models. The study demonstrates that social cost–benefit analysis and damage-limiting strategies can be usefully extended to illuminate issues with major long-term consequences, as well as concerns such as potential tipping points, irreversibility, and hysteresis. A key finding is that, under a wide range of assumptions, the risk of GIS disintegration makes a small contribution to the optimal stringency of current policy or to the overall social cost of climate change. It finds that the cost of GIS disintegration adds less than 5% to the social cost of carbon (SCC) under alternative discount rates and estimates of the GIS dynamics.

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