scholarly journals Dynamics and Predictability of Downward-Propagating Stratospheric Planetary Waves Observed in March 2007

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (11) ◽  
pp. 3533-3550 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hitoshi Mukougawa ◽  
Shunsuke Noguchi ◽  
Yuhji Kuroda ◽  
Ryo Mizuta ◽  
Kunihiko Kodera
Keyword(s):  
Mean Field ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Planetary Waves ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Barotropic Instability ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Horizontal Structure ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Downward Propagation ◽  
Barotropic Vorticity

Abstract The predictability of a downward-propagating event of stratospheric planetary waves observed in early March 2007 is examined by conducting ensemble forecasts using an AGCM. It is determined that the predictable period of this event is about 7 days. Regression analysis using all members of an ensemble forecast also reveals that the downward propagation is significantly related to an amplifying quasi-stationary planetary-scale anomaly with barotropic structure in polar regions of the upper stratosphere. Moreover, the anomaly is 90° out of phase with the ensemble-mean field. Hence, the upper-stratospheric anomaly determines the subsequent vertical-propagating direction of incoming planetary waves from the troposphere by changing their vertical phase tilt, which depends on its polarity. Furthermore, the regressed anomaly is found to have similar horizontal structure to the pattern of greatest spread among members of the predicted upper-stratospheric height field, and the spread growth rate reaches a maximum prior to the occurrence of the downward propagation. Hence, the authors propose a working hypothesis that the regressed anomaly emerges as a result of the barotropic instability inherent to the upper-stratospheric circulation. In fact, the stability analysis for basic states constituting the ensemble-mean forecasted upper-stratospheric streamfunction field using a nondivergent barotropic vorticity equation on a sphere supports this hypothesis. Thus, the barotropic instability inherent to the distorted polar vortex in the upper stratosphere forced by incoming planetary waves from the troposphere determines whether the planetary waves are eventually absorbed or emitted downward in the stratosphere.

scholarly journals On the time-scales of the downward propagation and of the tropospheric planetary wave response to the stratospheric circulation

2010 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 339-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Nikulin ◽  
F. Lott
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Frequency Band ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Vertical Component ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Planetary Waves ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Wave Response ◽  
Downward Propagation

Abstract. Three datasets (the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, the ERA-40 reanalysis and the LMDz-GCM), are used to analyze the relationships between large-scale dynamics of the stratosphere and the tropospheric planetary waves during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter. First, a cross-spectral analysis clarifies the time scales at which downward propagation of stratospheric anomalies occurs in the low-frequency band (that is at periods longer than 50 days). At these periods the strength of the polar vortex, measured by the 20-hPa Northern Annular Mode (NAM) index and the wave activity flux, measured by the vertical component of the Eliassen-Palm flux (EPz) from both the troposphere and the stratosphere, are significantly related with each other and in lead-lag quadrature. While, in the low-frequency band of the downward propagation, the EPz anomalies of the opposite sign around NAM extremes drive the onset and decay of NAM events, we found that the EPz anomalies in the troposphere, are significantly larger after stratospheric vortex anomalies than at any time before. This marked difference in the troposphere is related to planetary waves with zonal wavenumbers 1–3, showing that there is a tropospheric planetary wave response to the earlier state of the stratosphere at low frequencies. We also find that this effect is due to anomalies in the EPz issued from the northern midlatitudes and polar regions.

scholarly journals Atmospheric tracers during the 2003–2004 stratospheric warming event and impact of ozone intrusions in the troposphere

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 13633-13666 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Liu ◽  
C. X. Liu ◽  
H. P. Wang ◽  
X. Tie ◽  
S. T. Gao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Planetary Waves ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
Ozone Flux ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Atmospheric Tracers

Abstract. We use the stratospheric/tropospheric chemical transport model MOZART-3 to study the distribution and transport of stratospheric O3 during the exceptionally intense stratospheric sudden warming event observed in January 2004 in the Northern polar region. A comparison between observations by the MIPAS instrument on board the ENVISAT spacecraft and model simulations shows that the evolution of the polar vortex and of planetary waves during the warming event plays an important role in controlling the spatial distribution of stratospheric ozone and the downward ozone flux in the lower stratospheric and upper tropospheric regions. Compared to the situation during the winter of 2002–2003, lower ozone concentrations were transported from the polar regions (polar vortex) to mid-latitudes, leading to exceptional large areas of low ozone concentrations outside the polar vortex and "low-ozone pockets" in the middle stratosphere. The unusually long-lasting stratospheric westward winds (easterlies) during the 2003–2004 event greatly restricted the upward propagation of planetary waves, causing the weak transport of ozone-rich air originated from low latitudes to the middle polar stratosphere (10 hPa). The restricted wave activities led to a reduced downward ozone flux from the lower stratosphere (LS) to the upper troposphere (UT), especially in East Asia. Consequently, in this region during wintertime (December and January), the column ozone between 100 and 300 hPa was about 10% lower during the 2003–2004 event compared to the situation in 2002–2003.

Turbulent kinetic energy spectra and cascades in the polar atmosphere of Saturn

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter L. Read ◽  
Arrate Antuñano ◽  
Simon Cabanes ◽  
Greg Colyer ◽  
Teresa del Rio-Gaztelurrutia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Baroclinic Instability ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Energy Spectra ◽  
Horizontal Wind ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Zonal Wavenumber ◽  
Cloud Tops

<p>The regions of Saturn’s cloud-covered atmosphere polewards of 60<sup>o</sup> latitude are dominated in each hemisphere near the cloud tops by an intense, cyclonic polar vortex surrounded by a strong, high latitude eastward zonal jet. In the north, this high latitude jet takes the form of a remarkably regular zonal wavenumber m=6 hexagonal pattern that has been present at least since the Voyager spacecraft encounters with Saturn in 1980-81, and probably much longer. The origin of this feature, and the absence of a similar feature in the south, has remained poorly understood since its discovery. In this work, we present some new analyses of horizontal wind measurements at Saturn’s cloud tops polewards of 60 degrees in both the northern and southern hemispheres, previously published by Antuñano et al. (2015) using images from the Cassini mission, in which we compute kinetic energy spectra and the transfer rates of kinetic energy (KE) and enstrophy between different scales. 2D KE spectra are consistent with a zonostrophic regime, with a steep (~n<sup>-5</sup>) spectrum for the mean zonal flow (n is the total wavenumber) and a shallower Kolmogorov-like KE spectrum (~n<sup>-5/3</sup>) for the residual (eddy) flow, much as previously found for Jupiter’s atmosphere (Galperin et al. 2014; Young & Read 2017). Three different methods are used to compute the energy and enstrophy transfers, (a) as latitude-dependent zonal spectral fluxes, (b) as latitude-dependent structure functions and (c) as spatially filtered energy fluxes. The results of all three methods are largely in agreement in indicating a direct (forward) enstrophy cascade across most scales, averaged across the whole domain, an inverse kinetic energy cascade to large scales and a weak direct KE cascade at the smallest scales. The pattern of transfers has a more complex dependence on latitude, however. But it is clear that the m=6 North Polar Hexagon (NPH) wave was transferring KE into its zonal jet at 78<sup>o</sup> N (planetographic) at a rate of ∏<sub>E</sub> ≈ 1.8 x 10<sup>-4</sup> W kg<sup>-1</sup> at the time the Cassini images were acquired. This implies that the NPH was not maintained by a barotropic instability at this time, but may have been driven via a baroclinic instability or possibly from deep convection. Further implications of these results will be discussed.</p><p> </p><p>References</p><p>Antuñano, A., T. del Río-Gaztelurrutia, A. Sánchez-Lavega, and R. Hueso (2015), Dynamics of Saturn’s polar regions, J. Geophys. Res. Planets, 120, 155–176, doi:10.1002/2014JE004709.</p><p>Galperin, B., R. M.B. Young, S. Sukoriansky, N. Dikovskaya, P. L. Read, A. J. Lancaster & D. Armstrong (2014) Cassini observations reveal a regime of zonostrophic macroturbulence on Jupiter, Icarus, 229, 295–320.doi: 10.1016/j.icarus.2013.08.030</p><p>Young, R. M. B. & Read, P. L. (2017) Forward and inverse kinetic energy cascades in Jupiter’s turbulent weather layer, Nature Phys., 13, 1135-1140. Doi:10.1038/NPHYS4227</p><div> <div> <div> </div> </div> <div> <div> </div> </div> <div> <div> </div> </div> <div> <div> </div> </div> </div>

scholarly journals Ensemble Forecasting of Volcanic Emissions in Hawai’i

2015 ◽  
Vol 57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andre Kristofer Pattantyus ◽  
Steven Businger
Keyword(s):  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Dispersion Model ◽  
Probabilistic Forecast ◽  
Model Forecast ◽  
Volcanic Emissions ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Pollutant Concentrations ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Initial Comparison

<div class="page" title="Page 1"><div class="section"><div class="layoutArea"><div class="column"><p><span>Deterministic model forecasts do not convey to the end users the forecast uncertainty the models possess as a result of physics parameterizations, simplifications in model representation of physical processes, and errors in initial conditions. This lack of understanding leads to a level of uncertainty in the forecasted value when only a single deterministic model forecast is available. Increasing computational power and parallel software architecture allows multiple simulations to be carried out simultaneously that yield useful measures of model uncertainty that can be derived from ensemble model results. The Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integration Trajectory and Dispersion model has the ability to generate ensemble forecasts. A meteorological ensemble was formed to create probabilistic forecast products and an ensemble mean forecast for volcanic emissions from the Kilauea volcano that impacts the state of Hawai’i. The probabilistic forecast products show uncertainty in pollutant concentrations that are especially useful for decision-making regarding public health. Initial comparison of the ensemble mean forecasts with observations and a single model forecast show improvements in event timing for both sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosol forecasts. </span></p></div></div></div></div><p> </p>

scholarly journals Comparison of SMILES ClO profiles with other satellite and balloon-based measurements

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 613-663 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Sagawa ◽  
T. O. Sato ◽  
P. Baron ◽  
E. Dupuy ◽  
N. Livesey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Error ◽  
Michelson Interferometer ◽  
Space Station ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Middle Latitude ◽  
Information And Communications Technology ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
Spectral Bandwidth ◽  
Level 2

Abstract. We evaluate the quality of ClO profiles derived from the Superconducting Submillimeter-Wave Limb-Emission Sounder (SMILES) on the International Space Station (ISS). Version 2.1.5 of the level-2 product generated by the National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT) is the subject of this study. Based on error analysis simulations the systematic error was estimated as 5–10 pptv at the pressure range of 80–20 hPa, 35 pptv at the ClO peak altitude (~ 4 hPa), and 5–10 pptv at pressures &amp;leq; 0.5 hPa for daytime mid-latitude conditions. For nighttime measurements, a systematic error of 8 pptv was estimated for the ClO peak altitude (~ 2 hPa). The SMILES NICT v2.1.5 ClO profiles agree with those derived from another level-2 processor developed by JAXA within of the bias uncertainties, except for the nighttime measurements in the low and middle latitude region where the SMILES NICT v2.1.5 profiles have a negative bias of ~ 30 pptv in the lower stratosphere. This bias is considered to be due to the use of a limited spectral bandwidth in the retrieval process, which makes it difficult to distinguish between the ClO signal and wing contributions of spectral features outside the bandwidth. In the middle and upper stratosphere outside the polar regions, no significant systematic bias was found for the SMILES NICT ClO profile with respect to datasets from other instruments such as the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), the Odin Sub-Millimetre Radiometer (SMR), and the Envisat Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS), which demonstrates the scientific usability of the SMILES ClO data including the diurnal variations. Inside the chlorine-activated polar vortex the SMILES NICT v2.1.5 ClO profiles show larger volume mixing ratios by 0.3 ppbv (30%) at 50 hPa compared to those of the JAXA processed profiles. This discrepancy is also considered to be an effect of the limited spectral bandwidth in the retrieval processing. We also compared the SMILES NICT ClO profiles of chlorine-activated polar vortex conditions with those measured by the balloon-borne instruments Terahertz and submillimeter Limb Sounder (TELIS) and the MIPAS-balloon (MIPAS-B).

scholarly journals Impact of a Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter Scheme on Warm Season Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (5) ◽  
pp. 1887-1908 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey D. Duda ◽  
Xuguang Wang ◽  
Fanyou Kong ◽  
Ming Xue ◽  
Judith Berner
Keyword(s):  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Potential Utility ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Surface Observations

The efficacy of a stochastic kinetic energy backscatter (SKEB) scheme to improve convection-allowing probabilistic forecasts was studied. While SKEB has been explored for coarse, convection-parameterizing models, studies of SKEB for convective scales are limited. Three ensembles were compared. The SKMP ensemble used mixed physics with the SKEB scheme, whereas the MP ensemble was configured identically but without using the SKEB scheme. The SK ensemble used the SKEB scheme with no physics diversity. The experiment covered May 2013 over the central United States on a 4-km Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model domain. The SKEB scheme was successful in increasing the spread in all fields verified, especially mid- and upper-tropospheric fields. Additionally, the rmse of the ensemble mean was maintained or reduced, in some cases significantly. Rank histograms in the SKMP ensemble were flatter than those in the MP ensemble, indicating the SKEB scheme produces a less underdispersive forecast distribution. Some improvement was seen in probabilistic precipitation forecasts, particularly when examining Brier scores. Verification against surface observations agree with verification against Rapid Refresh (RAP) model analyses, showing that probabilistic forecasts for 2-m temperature, 2-m dewpoint, and 10-m winds were also improved using the SKEB scheme. The SK ensemble gave competitive forecasts for some fields. The SK ensemble had reduced spread compared to the MP ensemble at the surface due to the lack of physics diversity. These results suggest the potential utility of mixed physics plus the SKEB scheme in the design of convection-allowing ensemble forecasts.

scholarly journals Anomalous quasi-stationary planetary waves over the Antarctic region in 1988 and 2002

2008 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 1101-1108 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. V. Grytsai ◽  
O. M. Evtushevsky ◽  
G. P. Milinevsky
Keyword(s):  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Amplitude Distribution ◽  
Stationary Wave ◽  
Planetary Waves ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Latitudinal Position ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Peak Value

Abstract. Anomalies in the Antarctic total ozone and amplitudes of the quasi-stationary planetary waves in the lower stratosphere temperature during the winter and spring of 1988 and 2002 have been compared. Westward displacement of the quasi-stationary wave (QSW) extremes by 50°–70° relative to the preceding years of the strong stratospheric polar vortex in 1987 and 2001, respectively, was observed. A dependence of the quasi-stationary wave ridge and trough positions on the strength of the westerly zonal wind in the lower stratosphere is shown. Comparison of the QSW amplitude in the lower stratosphere temperature in July and August shows that the amplitude distribution with latitude in August could be considered as a possible indication of the future anomalous warming in Antarctic spring. In August 2002, the QSW amplitude of 10 K at the edge region of the polar vortex (60° S–65° S) preceded the major warming in September, whereas in August 1988, the highest 7 K amplitude at 55° S preceded the large warming in the next months. These results suggest that the peak value of the lower stratosphere temperature QSW amplitude and the peak latitudinal position in late winter can influence the southern polar vortex strength in spring.

scholarly journals Analysis of Ensemble Mean Forecasts: The Blessings of High Dimensionality

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (5) ◽  
pp. 1699-1712 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Christiansen
Keyword(s):  
High Dimensional ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Analytical Results ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Community Standard ◽  
Better Than

Abstract In weather and climate sciences ensemble forecasts have become an acknowledged community standard. It is often found that the ensemble mean not only has a low error relative to the typical error of the ensemble members but also that it outperforms all the individual ensemble members. We analyze ensemble simulations based on a simple statistical model that allows for bias and that has different variances for observations and the model ensemble. Using generic simplifying geometric properties of high-dimensional spaces we obtain analytical results for the error of the ensemble mean. These results include a closed form for the rank of the ensemble mean among the ensemble members and depend on two quantities: the ensemble variance and the bias both normalized with the variance of observations. The analytical results are used to analyze the GEFS reforecast where the variances and bias depend on lead time. For intermediate lead times between 20 and 100 h the two terms are both around 0.5 and the ensemble mean is only slightly better than individual ensemble members. For lead times larger than 240 h the variance term is close to 1 and the bias term is near 0.5. For these lead times the ensemble mean outperforms almost all individual ensemble members and its relative error comes close to −30%. These results are in excellent agreement with the theory. The simplifying properties of high-dimensional spaces can be applied not only to the ensemble mean but also to, for example, the ensemble spread.

scholarly journals Ensemble Regression

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (7) ◽  
pp. 2365-2379 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Unger ◽  
Huug van den Dool ◽  
Edward O’Lenic ◽  
Dan Collins
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Ensemble Member ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Ensemble Spread ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Standard Linear ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
Ensemble Regression

A regression model was developed for use with ensemble forecasts. Ensemble members are assumed to represent a set of equally likely solutions, one of which will best fit the observation. If standard linear regression assumptions apply to the best member, then a regression relationship can be derived between the full ensemble and the observation without explicitly identifying the best member for each case. The ensemble regression equation is equivalent to linear regression between the ensemble mean and the observation, but is applied to each member of the ensemble. The “best member” error variance is defined in terms of the correlation between the ensemble mean and the observations, their respective variances, and the ensemble spread. A probability density function representing the ensemble prediction is obtained from the normalized sum of the best-member error distribution applied to the regression forecast from each ensemble member. Ensemble regression was applied to National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) forecasts of seasonal mean Niño-3.4 SSTs on historical forecasts for the years 1981–2005. The skill of the ensemble regression was about the same as that of the linear regression on the ensemble mean when measured by the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), and both methods produced reliable probabilities. The CFS spread appears slightly too high for its skill, and the CRPS of the CFS predictions can be slightly improved by reducing its ensemble spread to about 0.8 of its original value prior to regression calibration.

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