scholarly journals Projected Change in Wintertime Precipitation in California Using Projected Changes in Extratropical Cyclone Activity

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (9) ◽  
pp. 3451-3466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke Osburn ◽  
Kevin Keay ◽  
Jennifer L. Catto
Keyword(s):  
Storm Track ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
Direct Model ◽  
The Future ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Wintertime extratropical cyclones in the east Pacific region are the source of much of the precipitation over California. There is a lot of uncertainty in future projections of Californian precipitation associated with predicted changes in the jet stream and the midlatitude storm tracks. The question this work seeks to answer is how the changes in the frequency and the intensity of extratropical cyclones in the Pacific storm track influence future changes in Californian precipitation. The authors used an objective cyclone identification method applied to 25 CMIP5 models for the historical and RCP8.5 simulations and investigated the changing relationships between storm frequency, intensity and precipitation. Cyclone data from the historical simulations and differences between the historical and RCP8.5 simulations were used to “predict” the modeled precipitation in the RCP8.5 simulations. In all models, the precipitation predicted using historical relationships gives a lower future precipitation change than the direct model output. In the future, the relationship between track density and precipitation indicates that for the same number of tracks, more precipitation is received. The relationship between track intensity and precipitation (which is quite weak in the historical simulations) does not change in the future. This suggests that other sources, likely enhanced moisture availability, are more important than changes in the intensity of cyclones for the rainfall associated with the storm tracks.

scholarly journals CMIP5 Projection of Significant Reduction in Extratropical Cyclone Activity over North America

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (24) ◽  
pp. 9903-9922 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edmund K. M. Chang
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
Temporal Variance ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Storm Track Activity ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract Projections of storm-track changes over the continental United States and southern Canada made by 23 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have been compared to changes projected by 11 models from phase 3 of CMIP (CMIP3). Overall, under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) forcing, CMIP5 models project much more significant decreases in North American storm-track activity than CMIP3 models under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 scenario, with the largest decrease in summer and the smallest decrease in spring. The decrease is found both in temporal variance and cyclone statistics, with the frequency of strong cyclones projected to decrease by 15.9%, 6.6%, 32.6%, and 16.9% for winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. There is a strong consensus among the 23 models regarding the sign of the projected change, with less than 20% of the models projecting changes in the opposite sign in any of the storm-track parameters examined. Nevertheless, there are also significant model-to-model differences in the magnitude of the projected changes. Projected changes in mean flow baroclinicity have also been examined. Model-to-model differences in the projected storm-track change are found to correlate significantly with model-to-model differences in the projected change in a locally defined mean available potential energy (MAPE) across the ensemble of 34 CMIP5 and CMIP3 models, suggesting that the differences in the projected change in local MAPE can partly account for not only the model-to-model differences but also the differences between CMIP5 and CMIP3 projections. Examination of projected precipitation change suggests that models projecting larger decrease in North American storm-track activity also project a farther northward intrusion of the decrease in subtropical precipitation.

scholarly journals Spatial Patterns and Intensity of the Surface Storm Tracks in CMIP5 Models

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (13) ◽  
pp. 4965-4981 ◽  
Author(s):  
James F. Booth ◽  
Young-Oh Kwon ◽  
Stanley Ko ◽  
R. Justin Small ◽  
Rym Msadek
Keyword(s):  
Storm Track ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
Spatial Correlations ◽  
Boundary Current ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Stability ◽  
The North ◽  
Basin Scale

To improve the understanding of storm tracks and western boundary current (WBC) interactions, surface storm tracks in 12 CMIP5 models are examined against ERA-Interim. All models capture an equatorward displacement toward the WBCs in the locations of the surface storm tracks’ maxima relative to those at 850 hPa. An estimated storm-track metric is developed to analyze the location of the surface storm track. It shows that the equatorward shift is influenced by both the lower-tropospheric instability and the baroclinicity. Basin-scale spatial correlations between models and ERA-Interim for the storm tracks, near-surface stability, SST gradient, and baroclinicity are calculated to test the ability of the GCMs’ match reanalysis. An intermodel comparison of the spatial correlations suggests that differences (relative to ERA-Interim) in the position of the storm track aloft have the strongest influence on differences in the surface storm-track position. However, in the North Atlantic, biases in the surface storm track north of the Gulf Stream are related to biases in the SST. An analysis of the strength of the storm tracks shows that most models generate a weaker storm track at the surface than 850 hPa, consistent with observations, although some outliers are found. A linear relationship exists among the models between storm-track amplitudes at 500 and 850 hPa, but not between 850 hPa and the surface. In total, the work reveals a dual role in forcing the surface storm track from aloft and from the ocean surface in CMIP5 models, with the atmosphere having the larger relative influence.

Statistical Projection of the North Atlantic Storm Tracks

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (7) ◽  
pp. 1509-1522 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kajsa M. Parding ◽  
Rasmus Benestad ◽  
Abdelkader Mezghani ◽  
Helene B. Erlandsen
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future ◽  
The North Atlantic

AbstractA method for empirical–statistical downscaling was adapted to project seasonal cyclone density over the North Atlantic Ocean. To this aim, the seasonal mean cyclone density was derived from instantaneous values of the 6-h mean sea level pressure (SLP) reanalysis fields. The cyclone density was then combined with seasonal mean reanalysis and global climate model projections of SLP or 500-hPa geopotential height to obtain future projections of the North Atlantic storm tracks. The empirical–statistical approach is computationally efficient because it makes use of seasonally aggregated cyclone statistics and allows the future cyclone density to be estimated from the full ensemble of available CMIP5 models rather than from a smaller subset. However, the projected cyclone density in the future differs considerably depending on the choice of predictor, SLP, or 500-hPa geopotential height. This discrepancy suggests that the relationship between the cyclone density and SLP, 500-hPa geopotential height, or both is nonstationary; that is, that the statistical model depends on the calibration period. A stationarity test based on 6-hourly HadGEM2-ES data indicated that the 500-hPa geopotential height was not a robust predictor of cyclone density.

Drivers of biases in the extratropical storm tracks in CMIP6

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Priestley ◽  
Duncan Ackerley ◽  
Jennifer Catto ◽  
Kevin Hodges ◽  
Ruth McDonald ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Ocean Coupling ◽  
Coupled Climate Models ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

<p>Extratropical cyclones are the leading driver of the day-to-day weather variability and wintertime losses for Europe. In the latest generation of coupled climate models, CMIP6, it is hoped that with improved modelling capabilities come improvements in the structure of the storm track and the associated cyclones. Using an objective cyclone identification and tracking algorithm the mean state of the storm tracks in the CMIP6 models is assessed as well as the representation of explosively deepening cyclones. Any developments and improvements since the previous generation of models in CMIP5 are discussed, with focus on the impact of model resolution on storm track representation. Furthermore, large-scale drivers of any biases are investigated, with particular focus on the role of atmosphere-ocean coupling via associated AMIP simulations and also the influence of large-scale dynamical and thermodynamical features.</p>

Evaluation of Historical and Future Cool Season Precipitation over the Eastern United States and Western Atlantic Storm Track Using CMIP5 Models

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 451-467 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelly Lombardo ◽  
Brian A. Colle ◽  
Zhenhai Zhang
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Cool Season ◽  
Western Atlantic ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract This study analyzed the contribution of cyclones to projected changes in cool season (1 November–31 March) precipitation over the eastern United States and western North Atlantic Ocean. First, global climate model simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were compared to Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Climate Prediction Center (CPC) precipitation analyses for the period 1979–2004. The CMIP5 ensemble mean realistically reproduced the historical distribution of regional precipitation with no discernable effect because of model spatial resolution. Subsequently, the projected changes in precipitation on cyclone and noncyclone days under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario were quantified. While precipitation on both types of days was projected to increase, the increase on noncyclone days (23%) was greater than the increase on cyclone days (12%). The increase in precipitation on cyclone days occurred despite a decrease in the number of cyclone days. This increase can be attributed primarily to a shift toward more frequent extreme precipitation events coupled with a decline in light precipitation events.

The Effect of a Strong Zonal Jet Stream on the Temporal Evolution of Baroclinic Eddies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Or Hadas ◽  
Yohai Kaspi
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Baroclinic Instability ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Similar Response ◽  
Jet Streams ◽  
Eddy Activity ◽  
Zonal Jets ◽  
The Pacific

<p>The midlatitude storm tracks are one of the most prominent features of the extratropical climate. Much of our understanding of what controls the storm tracks comes from linear theory of baroclinic instability, which explains generally most of the observed response of storms to the general circulation. One example to where this approach is lacking is the Pacific midwinter minimum, a decrease in the eddy activity over the Pacific storm track during midwinter when baroclinicity is at its peak due to extremely strong zonal jets. A similar response was found recently for the Atlantic storm track<strong>,</strong> in correlation to periods of strong zonal jets. Following on these findings we study the effect of strong zonal jet streams on eddy activity in the midlatitudes. In order to isolate the effect of the jet strength we used several idealized GCM experiments with different jet strengths, and analyze the formed storm track from a Lagrangian perspective by using a storm tracking algorithm. In both the Eulerian analysis and analysis of the tracks a strong reduction of high level eddy activity is prominent, as well as a modest weakening of the low-level activity. The observed response is then further analyzed by studying the connection between the upper and lower wave and how it changes with jet-stream intensity. </p><p> </p>

scholarly journals The Annual Cycle of Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks. Part I: Seasons

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (6) ◽  
pp. 1743-1760 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. J. Hoskins ◽  
K. I. Hodges
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Meridional Wind ◽  
Diagnostic Techniques ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Close Relationship

Abstract In this paper and Part II a comprehensive picture of the annual cycle of the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks is presented and discussed for the first time. It is based on both feature tracking and Eulerian-based diagnostics, applied to vorticity and meridional wind in the upper and lower troposphere. Here, the storm tracks, as diagnosed using both variables and both diagnostic techniques, are presented for the four seasons for each of the two levels. The oceanic storm tracks retain much of their winter mean intensity in spring with only a small change in their latitude. In the summer they are much weaker, particularly in the Pacific and are generally farther poleward. In autumn the intensities are larger again, comparable with those in spring, but the latitude is still nearer to that of summer. However, in the lower troposphere in the eastern ocean basins the tracking metrics show northern and southern tracks that change little with latitude through the year. The Pacific midwinter minimum is seen in upper-troposphere standard deviation diagnostics, but a richer picture is obtained using tracking. In winter there are high intensities over a wide range of latitudes in the central and eastern Pacific, and the western Pacific has high track density but weak intensity. In the lower troposphere all the diagnostics show that the strength of the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks are generally quite uniform over the autumn–winter–spring period. There is a close relationship between the upper-tropospheric storm track, particularly that based on vorticity, and tropopause-level winds and temperature gradients. In the lower troposphere, in winter the oceanic storm tracks are in the region of the strong meridional SST gradients, but in summer they are located in regions of small or even reversed SST gradients. However, over North America the lower-tropospheric baroclinicity and the upstream portion of the Atlantic storm track stay together throughout the year.

scholarly journals The Role of Extratropical Cyclones and Fronts for Southern Ocean Freshwater Fluxes

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (16) ◽  
pp. 6205-6224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukas Papritz ◽  
Stephan Pfahl ◽  
Irina Rudeva ◽  
Ian Simmonds ◽  
Harald Sodemann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Freshwater Flux ◽  
Freshwater Fluxes ◽  
South Indian ◽  
The Pacific

Abstract In this study, the important role of extratropical cyclones and fronts for the atmospheric freshwater flux over the Southern Ocean is analyzed. Based on the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), the freshwater flux associated with cyclones is quantified and it is revealed that the structure of the Southern Hemispheric storm track is strongly imprinted on the climatological freshwater flux. In particular, during austral winter the spiraliform shape of the storm track leads to a band of negative freshwater flux bending toward and around Antarctica, complemented by a strong freshwater input into the midlatitude Pacific, associated with the split storm track. The interannual variability of the wintertime high-latitude freshwater flux is shown to be largely determined by the variability of strong precipitation (>75th percentile). Using a novel and comprehensive method to attribute strong precipitation uniquely to cyclones and fronts, it is demonstrated that over the Southern Ocean between 60% and 90% of the strong precipitation events are due to these synoptic systems. Cyclones are the dominant cause of strong precipitation around Antarctica and in the midlatitudes of the Atlantic and the Pacific, while in the south Indian Ocean and the eastern Atlantic fronts bring most of the strong precipitation. A detailed analysis of the spatial variations of intense front and cyclone precipitation associated with the interannual variability of the wintertime frequency of cyclones in the midlatitude and high-latitude branches of the Pacific storm track underpins the importance of considering both fronts and cyclones in the analysis of the interannual variability of freshwater fluxes.

scholarly journals Are the Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks Significantly Correlated?

2004 ◽  
Vol 17 (21) ◽  
pp. 4230-4244 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edmund K. M. Chang
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Aircraft Observations ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Aircraft Data ◽  
Northern Hemisphere Winter

Abstract In this study, the correlation between the Northern Hemisphere winter Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks is examined using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40), as well as unassimilated aircraft observations. By examining month-to-month variability in the 250-hPa meridional velocity variance, the correlation between the two storm track peaks is found to be as high as 0.5 during the winters between 1975/76 and 1998/99. Here, it is shown that the correlation between the two storm tracks can be clearly detected from the aircraft data. Further analyses of the reanalysis data show that the correlation can also be seen in other eddy variance and covariance statistics, including the poleward heat flux at the 700-hPa level. The correlation between the two storm tracks, as seen in both reanalysis datasets, is shown to be much weaker during the period 1957/58–1971/72, suggesting a possible regime transition from largely uncorrelated storm tracks to highly correlated storm tracks during the 1970s. However, during this earlier period, the number of aircraft observations is insufficient to verify the low correlation seen in the reanalyses. Thus, low biases in the reanalyses during the earlier period cannot be ruled out. An ensemble of four GCM simulations performed using the GFDL GCM forced by global observed SST variations between 1950 and 1995 has also been examined. The correlation between the two storm tracks in the GCM simulations is much lower (0.18) than that observed, even if the analysis is restricted to the GCM simulations from the period 1975/76–1994/95. A Monte Carlo test shows that the observed correlation and the GCM correlation are statistically distinct at the 1% level. Correlations between the Southern Hemisphere summer Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks have also been examined based on the reanalyses datasets. The results suggest that the amplitude of the SH summer Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks are not significantly correlated, showing that seeding of the Atlantic storm track by the Pacific storm track does not necessarily lead to significant correlations between the two storm tracks.

scholarly journals Intraseasonal variability of wind waves in the western South Atlantic: the role of cyclones and the Pacific South-American pattern

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dalton Kei Sasaki ◽  
Carolina Barnez Gramcianinov ◽  
Belmiro Castro ◽  
Marcelo Dottori
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
South Atlantic ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
South American ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Cyclone Genesis

Abstract. Extratropical cyclones are known to generate extreme significant wave height (swh) values in the western South Atlantic (wSA), which are highly influenced by intraseasonal scales. This work aims to investigate the importance of intraseasonal time scales (30–180 days) in the regional wave climate and its atmospheric forcing. The variability is explained by analyzing the storm track modulation due to westerlies winds. These winds present time-scales and spatial patterns compatible with the intraseasonal component of the Pacific South–American (PSA) patterns. The analysis are made using ECMWF’s ERA5 from 1979 to 2019 and a database of extratropical cyclones based on the same reanalysis. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the 10 m zonal wind and swh are used to assess the westerlies and waves regime in the wSA. The EOF1 of u10 presented a core centred at 45° W and 40° S, while the EOF2 is represented by two cores organized into a see-saw pattern with a center between 30° S–40° S and another to the south of 40° S. Composites of cyclone genesis and track densities, and swh fields were calculated based on the phases of both EOFs. In short, EOF phases presenting cores with a positive (negative) u10 anomaly provides a favorable (unfavorable) environment for cyclone genesis and track densities and, therefore, positive (negative) swh anomalies. The modulation of the cyclones track are significant for extreme values of the swh. The spatial patterns of the EOFs of u10 are physically and statistically consistent with 200 hPa and 850 hPa geopotential height signals from the Pacific, indicating the importance of the remote influence of the PSA patterns over the wSA.

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