scholarly journals Exploiting the Abrupt 4 × CO2 Scenario to Elucidate Tropical Expansion Mechanisms

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 859-875 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rei Chemke ◽  
Lorenzo M. Polvani
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Phase Speed ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Minor Role ◽  
Tropopause Height ◽  
Cell Edge ◽  
Dry Zone ◽  
Poleward Shift

Future emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere are projected to result in significant circulation changes. One of the most important changes is the widening of the tropical belt, which has great societal impacts. Several mechanisms (changes in surface temperature, eddy phase speed, tropopause height, and static stability) have been proposed to explain this widening. However, the coupling between these mechanisms has precluded elucidating their relative importance. Here, the abrupt quadrupled-CO2 simulations of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are used to examine the proposed mechanisms. The different time responses of the different mechanisms allow us to disentangle and evaluate them. As suggested by earlier studies, the Hadley cell edge is found to be linked to changes in subtropical baroclinicity. In particular, its poleward shift is accompanied by an increase in subtropical static stability (i.e., a decrease in temperature lapse rate) with increased CO2 concentrations. These subtropical changes also affect the eddy momentum flux, which shifts poleward together with the Hadley cell edge. Transient changes in tropopause height, eddy phase speed, and surface temperature, however, were found not to accompany the poleward shift of the Hadley cell edge. The widening of the Hadley cell, together with the increase in moisture content, accounts for most of the expansion of the dry zone. Eddy moisture fluxes, on the other hand, are found to play a minor role in the expansion of the dry zone.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of the Intensity and Structure of Tropical Cyclones to Tropospheric Stability Conditions

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 411
Author(s):  
Tetsuya Takemi ◽  
Shota Yamasaki
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Tropopause Height ◽  
Temperature Lapse Rate ◽  
Warm Core

The intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) is controlled by their environmental conditions. In addition to the sea surface temperature, tropospheric temperature lapse rate and tropopause height are highly variable. This study investigates the sensitivity of the intensity and structure of TCs to environmental static stability with a fixed sea surface temperature by conducting a large ensemble of axisymmetric numerical experiments in which tropopause height and tropospheric temperature lapse rate are systematically changed based on the observed environmental properties for TCs that occurred in the western North Pacific. The results indicate that the intensity of the simulated TCs changes more sharply with the increase in the temperature lapse rate than with the increase in the tropopause height. The increases in the intensity of TCs are 1.3–1.9 m s−1 per 1% change of the lapse rate and 0.1–0.5 m s−1 per 1% change of the tropopause height. With the increase in the intensity of TCs, supergradient wind at low levels and double warm core structures are evident. Specifically, the formation of the warm core at the lower levels is closely tied with the intensification of TCs, and the temperature excess of the lower warm core becomes larger in higher lapse rate cases.

scholarly journals Hadley cell expansion in CMIP6 models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin M. Grise ◽  
Sean M. Davis
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Cell Expansion ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Cell Edge ◽  
Poleward Shift

Abstract. In response to increasing greenhouse gases, the subtropical edges of Earth's Hadley circulation shift poleward in global climate models. Recent studies have found that reanalysis trends in the Hadley cell edge over the past 30–40 years are within the range of trends simulated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and have documented seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries in these trends. In this study, we evaluate whether these conclusions hold for the newest generation of models (CMIP6). Overall, we find similar characteristics of Hadley cell expansion in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. In both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, the poleward shift of the Hadley cell edge in response to increasing greenhouse gases is 2–3 times larger in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), except during September–November. The trends from CMIP5 and CMIP6 models agree well with reanalyses, although prescribing observed coupled atmosphere-ocean variability allows the models to better capture reanalysis trends in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). We find two notable differences between CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. First, both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models contract the NH summertime Hadley circulation equatorward (particularly over the Pacific sector), but this contraction is larger in CMIP6 models due to their higher average climate sensitivity. Second, in recent decades, the poleward shift of the NH annual-mean Hadley cell edge is slightly larger in CMIP6 models. Increasing greenhouse gases drive similar trends in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, so the larger recent NH trends in CMIP6 models point to the role of other forcings, such as aerosols.

scholarly journals Determination of Tropical Belt Widening Using Multiple GNSS Radio Occultation Measurements

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed Darrag ◽  
Shuanggen Jin ◽  
Andrés Calabia ◽  
Aalaa Samy
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
Radio Occultation ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Tropopause Height ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Expansion Behavior ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Strong Contraction ◽  
A Minor

Abstract. In the last decades, Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) have provided an exceptional opportunity to retrieve atmospheric parameters globally through GNSS radio occultation (GNSS-RO). In this paper, data of 12 GNSS-RO missions from June 2001 to November 2020 with high resolution were used to investigate the possible widening of the tropical belt along with the probable drivers and impacts in both hemispheres. Applying both lapse rate tropopause (LRT) and cold point tropopause (CPT) definitions, the global tropopause height shows increase of approximately 36 m/decade and 60 m/decade, respectively. Moreover, the tropical edge latitude (TEL) estimated based on two tropopause height metrics, in the northern hemisphere (NH) and southern hemisphere (SH), are different from each other. For the first metric, subjective method, the tropical width from GNSS has expansion behavior in NH with ~ 0.41°/decade and a minor expansion in SH with ~ 0.08°/decade. In case of ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) there is no significant contraction in both NH and SH. For Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), there are expansion behavior in NH with ~ 0.34°/decade and strong contraction in SH with ~ −0.48°/decade. Using the second metric, objective method, the tropical width from GNSS has expansion in NH with ~ 0.13°/decade, and no significant expansion in SH. In case of ERA5, there is no significant signal in NH while SH has a minor contraction. AIRS has an expansion with ~ 0.13°/decade in NH, and strong contraction in SH with ~ −0.37°/decade. The variability of tropopause parameters (temperature and height) is maximum around the TEL locations at both hemispheres. The total column ozone (TCO) shows increasing rates globally, and the rate of increase at the SH is higher than that of the NH. There is a good agreement between the spatial and temporal patterns of TCO variability and the TEL location estimated from GNSS LRT height. Carbon dioxide (CO2), and Methane (CH4), the most important greenhouse gases (GHGs) and the main drivers of global warming, have a global increasing rate and the increasing rate of the NH is similar to that of the SH. The spatial pattern in the NH is located more pole ward than its equivalent at the SH. Both surface temperature and precipitation increase in time and have strong correlation with GNSS LRT height. Both show higher increasing rates at the NH, while the precipitation at the SH has slight decrease and the surface temperature increases. The surface temperature shows a spatial pattern with strong variability, which broadly agrees with the TEL locations. The spatial pattern of precipitation shows northward occurrence. In addition, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) has no direct connection with the TEL behavior.

Towards an Understanding of the Structure of Jupiter’s Atmosphere using the Ammonia Distribution and the Transformed Eulerian Mean Theory

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sukyoung Lee ◽  
Yohai Kaspi
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Velocity ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Scaling Analysis ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Temperature Lapse Rate ◽  
Ferrel Cell ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Transformed Eulerian Mean

AbstractThe structure and stability of Jupiter’s atmosphere is analyzed using transformed Eulerian mean (TEM) theory. Utilizing the ammonia distribution derived from microwave radiometer measurements of the Juno orbiter, the latitudinal and vertical distribution of the vertical velocity in the interior of Jupiter’s atmosphere is inferred. The resulting overturning circulation is then interpreted in the TEM framework to offer speculation of the vertical and meridional temperature distribution. In the extratropics, the analyzed vertical velocity field shows Ferrel-cell-like patterns associated with each of the jets. A scaling analysis of the TEM overturning circulation equation suggests that in order for the Ferrel-cell-like patterns to be visible in the ammonia distribution, the static stability of Jupiter’s weather layer should be on the order of 1 × 10−2 s−1. In the tropics, the ammonia distribution suggests strong upward motion which is reminiscent of the rising branch of the Hadley cell where the static stability is weaker. Taken together, the analysis suggests that the temperature lapse rate in the extratropics is markedly greater than that in the tropics. Because the cloud top temperature is nearly uniform across all latitudes, the analysis suggests that in the interior of the weather layer, there could exist a temperature gradient between the tropical and extratropical regions.

scholarly journals ITCZ Width Controls on Hadley Cell Extent and Eddy-Driven Jet Position and Their Response to Warming

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 1151-1166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver Watt-Meyer ◽  
Dargan M. W. Frierson
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Lower Latitude ◽  
Tropical Precipitation ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
Poleward Shift ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Zonal Momentum

The impact of global warming–induced intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) narrowing onto the higher-latitude circulation is examined in the GFDL Atmospheric Model, version 2.1 (AM2.1), run over zonally symmetric aquaplanet boundary conditions. A striking reconfiguration of the deep tropical precipitation from double-peaked, off-equatorial ascent to a single peak at the equator occurs under a globally uniform +4 K sea surface temperature (SST) perturbation. This response is found to be highly sensitive to the SST profile used to force the model. By making small (≤1 K) perturbations to the surface temperature in the deep tropics, varying control simulation precipitation patterns with both single and double ITCZs are generated. Across the climatologies, narrower regions of ascent correspond to more equatorward Hadley cell edges and eddy-driven jets. Under the global warming perturbation, the experiments in which there is narrowing of the ITCZ show significantly less expansion of the Hadley cell and somewhat less poleward shift of the eddy-driven jet than those without ITCZ narrowing. With a narrower ITCZ, the ascending air has larger zonal momentum, causing more westerly upper-tropospheric subtropical wind. In turn, this implies 1) the subtropical jet will become baroclinically unstable at a lower latitude and 2) the critical (zero wind) line will shift equatorward, allowing midlatitude eddies to propagate farther equatorward. Both of these mechanisms modify the Hadley cell edge position, and the latter affects the jet position.

scholarly journals Understanding the Time Scales of the Tropospheric Circulation Response to Abrupt CO2 Forcing in the Southern Hemisphere: Seasonality and the Role of the Stratosphere

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (21) ◽  
pp. 8497-8515 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin M. Grise ◽  
Lorenzo M. Polvani
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Global Mean Surface Temperature ◽  
Tropospheric Circulation ◽  
Dry Zone ◽  
Global Mean

This study examines the time scales of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropospheric circulation response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations in models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In response to an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2, the midlatitude jet stream and poleward edge of the Hadley circulation shift poleward on the time scale of the rising global-mean surface temperature during the summer and fall seasons but on a much more rapid time scale during the winter and spring seasons. The seasonally varying time scales of the SH circulation response are closely tied to the meridional temperature gradient in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere and, in particular, to temperatures in the SH polar lower stratosphere. During summer and fall, SH polar lower-stratospheric temperatures cool on the time scale of warming global surface temperatures, as the lifting of the tropopause height with tropospheric warming is associated with cooling at lower-stratospheric levels. However, during winter and spring, SH polar lower-stratospheric temperatures cool primarily from fast time-scale radiative processes, contributing to the faster time-scale circulation response during these seasons. The poleward edge of the SH subtropical dry zone shifts poleward on the time scale of the rising global-mean surface temperature during all seasons in response to an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2. The dry zone edge initially follows the poleward shift in the Hadley cell edge but is then augmented by the action of eddy moisture fluxes in a warming climate. Consequently, with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, key features of the tropospheric circulation response could emerge sooner than features more closely tied to rising global temperatures.

scholarly journals Hadley cell expansion in CMIP6 models

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (9) ◽  
pp. 5249-5268 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin M. Grise ◽  
Sean M. Davis
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Cell Expansion ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Cell Edge ◽  
Poleward Shift

Abstract. In response to increasing greenhouse gases, the subtropical edges of Earth's Hadley circulation shift poleward in global climate models. Recent studies have found that reanalysis trends in the Hadley cell edge over the past 30–40 years are within the range of trends simulated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and have documented seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries in these trends. In this study, we evaluate whether these conclusions hold for the newest generation of models (CMIP6). Overall, we find similar characteristics of Hadley cell expansion in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. In both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, the poleward shift of the Hadley cell edge in response to increasing greenhouse gases is 2–3 times larger in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), except during September–November. The trends from CMIP5 and CMIP6 models agree well with reanalyses, although prescribing observed coupled atmosphere–ocean variability allows the models to better capture reanalysis trends in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). We find two notable differences between CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. First, while both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models contract the NH summertime Hadley circulation equatorward (particularly over the Pacific sector), this contraction is larger in CMIP6 models due to their higher average climate sensitivity. Second, in recent decades, the poleward shift of the NH annual-mean Hadley cell edge is slightly larger in CMIP6 models. Increasing greenhouse gases drive similar trends in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, so the larger recent NH trends in CMIP6 models point to the role of other forcings, such as aerosols.

scholarly journals Expansion of the Southern Hemisphere Hadley Cell in Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (20) ◽  
pp. 8067-8077 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Nguyen ◽  
C. Lucas ◽  
A. Evans ◽  
B. Timbal ◽  
L. Hanson
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Dry Zone ◽  
Poleward Shift ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Increasing Trends

Abstract Changes of the Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell over the twentieth century are investigated using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) and coupled model simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Trends computed on a 30-yr sliding window on the 20CR dataset reveal a statistically significant expansion of the Hadley cell from 1968 forced by an increasing surface global warming. This expansion is strongly associated with the intensification and poleward shift of the subtropical dry zone, which potentially explain the increasing trends of droughts in the subtropical regions such as southern Australia, South America, and Africa. Coupled models from the CMIP5 do not adequately simulate the observed amount of the Hadley expansion, only showing an average of one-fourth of the expansion as determined from the 20CR and only when simulations include greenhouse gas forcing as opposed to simulations including natural forcing only.

scholarly journals Summer Westerly Jet in Northern Hemisphere during the Mid-Holocene: A Multi-Model Study

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1193
Author(s):  
Chuchu Xu ◽  
Mi Yan ◽  
Liang Ning ◽  
Jian Liu
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Dynamic Processes ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Meridional Temperature Gradient ◽  
The North ◽  
Westerly Jet ◽  
Poleward Shift ◽  
Thermodynamic Processes

The upper-level jet stream, a narrow band of maximum wind speed in the mid-latitude westerlies, exerts a considerable influence on the global climate by modulating the transport and distribution of momentum, heat and moisture. In this study by using four high-resolution models in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 3, the changes of position and intensity of the northern hemisphere westerly jet at 200 hPa in summer during the mid-Holocene (MH), as well as the related mechanisms, are investigated. The four models show similar performance on the westerly jet. At the hemispheric scale, the simulated westerly jet has a poleward shift during the MH compared to the preindustrial period. The warming in arctic and cooling in the tropics during the MH are caused by the orbital changes of the earth and the precipitation changes, and it could lead to the weakened meridional temperature gradient and pressure gradient, which might account for the poleward shift of the westerly jet from the thermodynamic perspective. From the dynamic perspective, two maximum centers of eddy kinetic energy are simulated over the North Pacific and North Atlantic with the north deviation, which could cause the northward movement of the westerly jet. The weakening of the jet stream is associated with the change of the Hadley cell and the meridional temperature gradient. The largest weakening is over the Pacific Ocean where both the dynamic and the thermodynamic processes have weakening effects. The smallest weakening is over the Atlantic Ocean, and it is induced by the offset effects of dynamic processes and thermodynamic processes. The weakening over the Eurasia is mainly caused by the dynamic processes.

scholarly journals A New Methodology for Estimating the Surface Temperature Lapse Rate Based on Grid Data and Its Application in China

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1617 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yun Qin ◽  
Guoyu Ren ◽  
Tianlin Zhai ◽  
Panfeng Zhang ◽  
Kangmin Wen
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
North China ◽  
Seasonal Pattern ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Vertical Gradient ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Grid Data ◽  
Temperature Lapse Rate

Land surface temperature (LST) is an important parameter in the study of the physical processes of land surface. Understanding the surface temperature lapse rate (TLR) can help to reveal the characteristics of mountainous climates and regional climate change. A methodology was developed to calculate and analyze land-surface TLR in China based on grid datasets of MODIS LST and digital elevation model (DEM), with a formula derived on the basis of the analysis of the temperature field and the height field, an image enhancement technique used to calculate gradient, and the fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering applied to identify the seasonal pattern of the TLR. The results of the analysis through the methodology showed that surface temperature vertical gradient inversion widely occurred in Northeast, Northwest, and North China in winter, especially in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region, the northern and the western parts of the Greater Khingan Mountains, the Lesser Khingan Mountains, and the northern area of Northwest and North China. Summer generally witnessed the steepest TLR among the four seasons. The eastern Tibetan Plateau showed a distinctive seasonal pattern, where the steepest TLR happened in winter and spring, with a shallower TLR in summer. Large seasonal variations of TLR could be seen in Northeast China, where there was a steep TLR in spring and summer and a strong surface temperature vertical gradient inversion in winter. The smallest seasonal variation of TLR happened in Central and Southwest China, especially in the Ta-pa Mountains and the Qinling Mountains. The TLR at very high altitudes (>5 km) was usually steeper than at low altitudes, in all months of the year.

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