An Evaluation of the Utility of a Decision-Maker-Driven Climate Hazard Assessment Tool

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 147-157
Author(s):  
Rachel E. Riley
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Boundary Organization ◽  
South Central ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
High Utility

AbstractDecision-makers who have little to no formal training in atmospheric science are increasingly accessing and interpreting climate data and information within planning contexts. Many climate decision support tools (DSTs) have been developed to support decision-making across a variety of sectors and scales, but evaluation of such tools has only recently begun to take place. This study conducted a summative evaluation of the utility of a decision-maker-driven climate hazard assessment tool, the Simple Planning Tool (SPT), a climate DST. The SPT was inspired by and codeveloped with emergency managers, planners, and a boundary organization in two south-central U.S. states. The SPT’s target audience was surveyed to assess the tool’s utility, including its saliency, credibility, trustworthiness, and reasons for and impact of information use on decision-making. A high utility was found despite a relatively limited user base at the time of the study. In addition, SPT users represented a range of jurisdictional sizes, geographical scales, and years of experience. Although the small user sample limits generalizability of the study, it is likely a realistic reflection of the number of emergency managers and planners in the two states who are actively and regularly incorporating climate hazards into planning. The data also indicate that climate boundary organizations and climate service providers should work toward utilizing trusted information sources, channels, and procedures within the sectors to which their tool applies to help increase decision-maker awareness and use of their tool.

Thermal Assessment Tool: A climate service to visualize trends of risk events related to cold snaps and heatwaves

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Blas Lajarín ◽  
Nieves Peña ◽  
Jorge Paz ◽  
Edward P. Morris ◽  
Greta C. Vega ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts

<p>The Thermal Assessment Tool has been developed within the framework of a Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) contract, titled Climate Change Dashboards for Decision Makers, to provide an interactive and informative dashboard to allow users to visualize the frequency and severity of risk events related to cold snaps and heatwaves. The tool is based on historical, seasonal forecast and long-term projections datasets, available through C3S Climate Data Store (CDS). It reduces the need for repetitive complex climate data analysis, thereby saving time and effort in the decision-making process.</p><p>Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and humans, and it is foreseeing that will lead to an increase in the number and intensity of extreme weather events, including heatwaves and cold snaps. These may bring temperatures that are significantly warmer or colder than average that may cause impacts such as thermal discomfort, lack of productivity, more energy consumption and/or health problems. To reduce or at least mitigate these impacts added-value information regarding the risks of extreme temperatures is needed to make proper decisions to prepare, protect and prevent the city and citizens.</p><p>For this purpose, the Thermal Assessment Tool provides a customized dashboard that allows users to visualize heatwaves, cold snaps and thermal comfort based on long-term projections and seasonal forecasts. The tool also presents an interactive map and a time series visualization identifying the magnitude of these three variables. This reduces the need for repetitive complex climate data analysis, thereby saving time and effort in the decision-making processes. Information on the frequency and severity of future extreme temperature events can also assist with planning.</p><p>The tool showcases how to analyze, process and simplify large volumes of data through different maps and plots that make it easier to understand climate indicators (about the past, present or future). Local governments and other decision-makers, as well as actors in housing development and management, urban planning, and insurance can refer to the tool to complement their usual information systems with additional quality-assured insights that they can act on.</p><p>Acknowledgments: We would like to thank the C3S for funding this project and the participants in the various workshops mentioned below: Ayuntamiento de Bilbao, Ihobe y la Oficina Española de Cambio Climático.</p>

scholarly journals Application of SWAT in Hydrological Simulation of Complex Mountainous River Basin (Part II: Climate Change Impact Assessment)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1548
Author(s):  
Suresh Marahatta ◽  
Deepak Aryal ◽  
Laxmi Prasad Devkota ◽  
Utsav Bhattarai ◽  
Dibesh Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mountainous River

This study aims at analysing the impact of climate change (CC) on the river hydrology of a complex mountainous river basin—the Budhigandaki River Basin (BRB)—using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model that was calibrated and validated in Part I of this research. A relatively new approach of selecting global climate models (GCMs) for each of the two selected RCPs, 4.5 (stabilization scenario) and 8.5 (high emission scenario), representing four extreme cases (warm-wet, cold-wet, warm-dry, and cold-dry conditions), was applied. Future climate data was bias corrected using a quantile mapping method. The bias-corrected GCM data were forced into the SWAT model one at a time to simulate the future flows of BRB for three 30-year time windows: Immediate Future (2021–2050), Mid Future (2046–2075), and Far Future (2070–2099). The projected flows were compared with the corresponding monthly, seasonal, annual, and fractional differences of extreme flows of the simulated baseline period (1983–2012). The results showed that future long-term average annual flows are expected to increase in all climatic conditions for both RCPs compared to the baseline. The range of predicted changes in future monthly, seasonal, and annual flows shows high uncertainty. The comparative frequency analysis of the annual one-day-maximum and -minimum flows shows increased high flows and decreased low flows in the future. These results imply the necessity for design modifications in hydraulic structures as well as the preference of storage over run-of-river water resources development projects in the study basin from the perspective of climate resilience.

scholarly journals How Do We Assess Patient Skills in a Competence-Based Program? Assessment of Patient Competences Using the Spanish Version of the Prolapse and Incontinence Knowledge Questionnaire and Real Practical Cases in Women with Pelvic Floor Disorders

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 2377
Author(s):  
Beatriz Sánchez-Sánchez ◽  
Beatriz Arranz-Martín ◽  
Beatriz Navarro-Brazález ◽  
Fernando Vergara-Pérez ◽  
Javier Bailón-Cerezo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Pelvic Floor ◽  
Discriminant Validity ◽  
Pelvic Floor Disorders ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Pelvic Organ ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Measurement Properties ◽  
Competence Assessment ◽  
Knowledge Questionnaire

Therapeutic patient education programs must assess the competences that patients achieve. Evaluation in the pedagogical domain ensures that learning has taken place among patients. The Prolapse and Incontinence Knowledge Questionnaire (PIKQ) is a tool for assessing patient knowledge about urinary (UI) and pelvic organ prolapse (POP) conditions. The aim of this study was to translate the Prolapse and Incontinence Knowledge Questionnaire (PIKQ) into Spanish and test its measurement properties, as well as propose real practical cases as a competence assessment tool. The cross-cultural adaptation was conducted by a standardized translation/back-translation method. Measurement properties analysis was performed by assessing the validity, reliability, responsiveness, and interpretability. A total of 275 women were recruited. The discriminant validity showed statistically significant differences in the PIKQ scores between patients and expert groups. Cronbach’s alpha revealed good internal consistency. The test–retest reliability showed excellent correlation with UI and POP scales. Regarding responsiveness, the effect size, and standardized response mean demonstrated excellent values. No floor or ceiling effects were shown. In addition, three “real practical cases” evaluating skills in identifying and analyzing, decision making, and problem-solving were developed and tested. The Spanish PIKQ is a comprehensible, valid, reliable, and responsive tool for the Spanish population. Real practical cases are useful competence assessment tools that are well accepted by women with pelvic floor disorders (PFD), improving their understanding and their decision-making regarding PFD.

A preliminary study of gray matter volume differences related to context-dependent and independent decision-making

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhang Jinbo
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Gray Matter ◽  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Gray Matter Volume ◽  
Neural Basis ◽  
Matter Volume ◽  
Decision Styles ◽  
Context Dependent ◽  
Independent Decision

Facing the high degree of uncertainty of the environment, we have evolved two kinds of decision-making styles: context-dependent and context-independent decision. However, the underlying neural basis of these two kinds of decision styles was mostly unknown. Here, the cognitive bias task was applied to split participants into the context-independent decision-maker and context-dependent decision-maker based on the cognitive bias task scores. Then, we used voxel-based morphometry to directly investigate its underlying differences in gray matter volume. We found that the gray matter volume of the prefrontal cortex and parietal regions, such as inferior parietal lobule, was larger in context-dependent decision-makers than that of the context-independent decision-maker.

Modeling the response of non-perennial streams to climate change impact: The Bouregreg watershed in Morocco

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Maria De Girolamo ◽  
Youssef Brouziyne ◽  
Lahcen Benaabidate ◽  
Aziz Aboubdillah ◽  
Ali El Bilali ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hybrid Modeling ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Stream Network ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Modeling Approach

<p>The non-perennial streams and rivers are predominant in the Mediterranean region and play an important ecological role in the ecosystem diversity in this region. This class of streams is particularly vulnerable to climate change effects that are expected to amplify further under most climatic projections. Understanding the potential response of the hydrologic regime attributes to climatic stress helps in planning better conservation and management strategies. Bouregreg watershed (BW) in Morocco, is a strategic watershed for the region with a developed non-perennial stream network, and with typical assets and challenges of most Mediterranean watersheds. In this study, a hybrid modeling approach, based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and Indicator of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) program, was used to simulate the response of BW's stream network to climate change during the period: 2035-2050. Downscaled daily climate data from the global circulation model CNRM-CM5 were used to force the hybrid modeling framework over the study area. Results showed that, under the changing climate, the magnitude of the alteration will be different across the stream network; however, almost the entire flow regime attributes will be affected. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the average number of zero-flow days will rise up from 3 to 17.5 days per year in some streams, the timing of the maximum flow was calculated to occur earlier by 17 days than in baseline, and the timing of the minimal flow should occur later by 170 days in some streams. The used modeling approach in this study contributed in identifying the most vulnerable streams in the BW to climate change for potential prioritization in conservation plans.</p>

scholarly journals Cancer Patients: Their Desire for Information and Participation in Treatment Decisions

1989 ◽  
Vol 82 (5) ◽  
pp. 260-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
H J Sutherland ◽  
H A Llewellyn-Thomas ◽  
G A Lockwood ◽  
D L Tritchler ◽  
J E Till
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Treatment Decisions ◽  
Autonomous Decision ◽  
Disclosure Of Information ◽  
Participation In Decision Making ◽  
Psychological Autonomy ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between cancer patients’ desire for information and their preference for participation in decision making has been examined. Approximately 77% of the 52 patients reported that they had participated in decision making to the extent that they wished, while most of the remaining 23% would have preferred an opportunity to have greater input. Although many of the patients actively sought information, a majority preferred the physician to assume the role of the primary decision maker. Ethically, the disclosure of information has been assumed to be necessary for autonomous decision making. Nevertheless, the results of this study indicate that patients may actively seek information to satisfy an as yet unidentified aspect of psychological autonomy that does not necessarily include participation in decision making.

Novel Video-Based Assessment Tool for Laparoscopic Intraoperative Decision-Making

2014 ◽  
Vol 219 (3) ◽  
pp. S119-S120
Author(s):  
Isabelle Raiche ◽  
Matthew G. Mutch ◽  
Stanley J. Hamstra ◽  
Matthew L. Silviera ◽  
Steven R. Hunt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Assessment Tool

scholarly journals Multi-Criteria Performance Evaluation of Gridded Precipitation and Temperature Products in Data-Sparse Regions

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1597
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Mohammed Lawal ◽  
Douglas Bertram ◽  
Christopher John White ◽  
Ahmad Hussaini Jagaba ◽  
Ibrahim Hassan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Research Unit ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Meteorological Forcing ◽  
Lake Chad ◽  
Climate Research ◽  
Princeton University ◽  
Lake Chad Basin ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Inadequate climate data stations often make hydrological modelling a rather challenging task in data-sparse regions. Gridded climate data can be used as an alternative; however, their accuracy in replicating the climatology of the region of interest with low levels of uncertainty is important to water resource planning. This study utilised several performance metrics and multi-criteria decision making to assess the performance of the widely used gridded precipitation and temperature data against quality-controlled observed station records in the Lake Chad basin. The study’s findings reveal that the products differ in their quality across the selected performance metrics, although they are especially promising with regards to temperature. However, there are some inherent weaknesses in replicating the observed station data. Princeton University Global Meteorological Forcing precipitation showed the worst performance, with Kling–Gupta efficiency of 0.13–0.50, a mean modified index of agreement of 0.68, and a similarity coefficient SU = 0.365, relative to other products with satisfactory performance across all stations. There were varying degrees of mismatch in unidirectional precipitation and temperature trends, although they were satisfactory in replicating the hydro-climatic information with a low level of uncertainty. Assessment based on multi-criteria decision making revealed that the Climate Research Unit, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, and Climate Prediction Centre precipitation data and the Climate Research Unit and Princeton University Global Meteorological Forcing temperature data exhibit better performance in terms of similarity, and are recommended for application in hydrological impact studies—especially in the quantification of projected climate hazards and vulnerabilities for better water policy decision making in the Lake Chad basin.

scholarly journals VERBAL DECISION MAKING ANALYSIS

2004 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-39
Author(s):  
Dmitry Kochin ◽  
Leonas Ustinovičius
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Mathematical Proof ◽  
Preference Elicitation ◽  
Qualitative Approach ◽  
Analysis Methods ◽  
Verbal Decision Analysis ◽  
Quantitative Approaches

The paper presents the ideology of a qualitative approach to decision making ‐ verbal decision analysis. The authors have analyzed existing quantitative approaches and pointed out their main disadvantages. They formulated the requirements for decision‐making methods taking into account these disadvantages: psychological correctness of a dialog with decision maker (DM), strict mathematical proof of the methods and checking of DM information for consistency. The authors present the results of research on psychological correctness of operations of preference elicitation from DM. Several existing verbal decision analysis methods are briefly mentioned.

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