Prospects for the UK Economy

2004 ◽  
Vol 189 ◽  
pp. 37-56
Author(s):  
Simon Kirby ◽  
Robert Metz ◽  
Rebecca Riley
Keyword(s):  
Average Rate ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
The Uk

The economy continued to grow faster than its trend rate in the first half of 2004. Preliminary estimates show GDP rising by 0.9 per cent in the second quarter of the year. Measured on an annualised basis, this brings the average rate of growth since the middle of last year to 3.6 per cent. It is our view that this brings the economy very close to capacity. We expect the output gap to average 0.1 per cent of trend GDP this year (see chart 1).

Prospects for the UK Economy

2007 ◽  
Vol 202 ◽  
pp. 42-60
Author(s):  
Ehsan Khoman ◽  
Simon Kirby
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Preliminary Estimate ◽  
The Third ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Domestic Impact

GDP growth in the second quarter of this year remained robust at a quarterly rate of growth of 0.8 per cent. With revisions to previous quarters, economic growth has been maintained at this rate since the end of 2006. NIESR's monthly estimate of GDP showed this robust growth continuing into the third quarter of this year. The official preliminary estimate confirms the pattern of robust growth continuing into the third quarter of this year (figure 1). In light of this we have revised our forecast for GDP growth this year up from 2.8 per cent to 3.1 per cent. We have revised down our forecast for GDP growth in 2008 from 2.6 to 2.2 per cent. This reflects weaker net trade, with the recent financial turmoil having only a small domestic impact.

Real time representation of the UK output gap in the presence of model uncertainty

2009 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Garratt ◽  
Kevin Lee ◽  
Emi Mise ◽  
Kalvinder Shields
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Time Representation ◽  
The Uk

Prospects for the UK economy

2008 ◽  
Vol 205 ◽  
pp. 39-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Kirby
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Volume Growth ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Sales Volume ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Retail Sales ◽  
Sales Data ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
The Uk

The economy is slowing as expected. NIESR's estimate of monthly GDP suggests that the rate of economic growth slowed from 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of this year to 0.2 per cent in the second quarter of this year (figure 1), the weakest rate of growth since the second quarter of 2001. Recent data on the state of the economy is mixed. Retail sales volume growth surged to 1.8 per cent per quarter in the three months to May 2008, up from a rate of growth of 1.2 per cent in the preceding three months. The index of production, however, recorded a fall of 0.5 per cent in the three months to May 2008. The index of services suggests services output growth has continued to be relatively subdued. The quarterly rate of growth in the three months to April was 0.3 per cent, half the rate of growth in the final quarter of 2007. While the retail sales data are not yet consistent with a consumer led slowdown, the decline of hotel and restaurant output in the three months to April suggests that other components of consumer spending are slowing.

Growth rate of secondary hydatid cysts of the brain

1985 ◽  
Vol 62 (5) ◽  
pp. 781-782 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Sierra ◽  
Jorge Oviedo ◽  
Marcelo Berthier ◽  
Ramon Leiguarda
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Young Patients ◽  
Hydatid Cysts ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
The Brain ◽  
Fine Print

✓ Bilateral intracerebral hydatid cysts developed in a 14-year-old patient after an infarct of presumed embolic origin in the left frontotemporoparietal region. The average rate of growth of these cysts was about 5 cm per year. This suggests that the growth rate is far from uniform and indeed, particularly in young patients, may be much faster than originally estimated.

The Volatility of the Output Gap in the G7

2004 ◽  
Vol 188 ◽  
pp. 100-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barell ◽  
Sylvia Gottschalk
Keyword(s):  
Significant Role ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Output Volatility ◽  
Financial Wealth ◽  
Inflation Volatility ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Over Time

We investigate declining output volatility in the G7 since 1970 in a panel context, seeking to explain the causes of the decline. We show that there is a significant role for both net financial wealth and trade openness as well as inflation volatility, even though previous studies have ignored the fact that it may be endogenous and its role therefore spurious. However, its importance clearly varies over time and across countries, and it appears less important as an explanation of declining volatility in the US than it does in the UK. Changes in openness appear to be at least as important in explaining the decline in US output volatility.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1991 ◽  
Vol 135 ◽  
pp. 27-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Andrew Gurney ◽  
Jan Willem In't Veld
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Bank Failures ◽  
Capacity Utilisation ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Uk

The start of hostilities in the Gulf in January appears to have removed some of the uncertainties surrounding the oil market, and oil prices have dropped to around 20 dollars per barrel. This development should help sustain growth and reduce inflation over the next two years. Box A sets out some calculations of the effects of the change in our oil price assumptions on our forecast. The appreciation of the D-Mark bloc and the emergence of a recession in the US driven by a wave of bank failures has persuaded us to be less optimistic then we were in our last forecast. Table 1 summarises the outlook. We are forecasting a slowdown in the rate of growth in the major economies in 1991, with some recovery in 1992 and thereafter. The slowdown has already taken place in the US, the UK and Canada, whereas in 1990 Japanese and German growth was at historically high levels. Chart 1 plots levels of capacity utilisation in the major economies. Only in the US has output clearly fallen below capacity, but record levels of utilisation in Japan, Germany and France inevitably imply some slowdown in growth from recent levels.

The influence of vaccination with Fecundin and supplementation with lupin grain on the reproductive performance of Merino ewes in Western Australia

1990 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 469
Author(s):  
KP Croker ◽  
MA Johns ◽  
SH Bell ◽  
GA Brown ◽  
JF Wallace
Keyword(s):  
Western Australia ◽  
Reproductive Performance ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Multiple Pregnancies ◽  
Wool Production ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
Nutritional Conditions ◽  
Average Quantity

The reproductive performances of groups of 4-6-year-old medium wool Merino ewes that were vaccinated with Fecundin and/or fed sweet lupin grain prior to and during the early part of the joining period were compared with untreated ewes over 2 years. The rams were joined with the ewes in early January of each year. In both years the Fecundin and lupin treatments increased ovulation rates (between 0.13 and 0.56) and the incidence of multiple pregnancies (between 1 and 36%). The proportions of lambs born following treatment with Fecundin were larger than those from the ewes fed only lupins. When the treatments were combined, there were no increases in lambs born above that of Fecundin alone. Pregnancy significantly depressed wool production from individual ewes, while those with more than 1 lamb produced less wool than those with only 1 lamb. However, the average quantity (4.6 kg greasy) and quality of wool produced by the ewes each year was similar for all groups, indicating that the variation in the incidence of multiple pregnancies had not affected flock wool production. The average rate of growth of the progeny from marking to weaning was also similar for each group (191 and 238 g/head.day for years 1 and 2, respectively) even though there were more multiple-born lambs in the Fecundin-treated groups. On a flock basis, it would appear that the nutritional conditions experienced during this study were adequate to avoid significant penalties associated with multiple pregnancies.

Using Real-Time Output Gaps to Examine Past and Future Policy Choices

2009 ◽  
Vol 210 ◽  
pp. 98-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Adam ◽  
David Cobham
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Reaction Functions ◽  
Other Information ◽  
Alternative Measures ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Future Policy ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Output Gaps

Alternative measures of the UK output gap are considered for 1984–2007. The real-time series is strongly affected by the rolling-time estimation of the trend, and produces a picture of the business cycle which is not consistent with contemporary perceptions of the large fluctuations of the late 1980s and early 1990s. A new, ‘nearly-real’, measure developed here may be better for estimating historical reaction functions. In the context of the current recession, none of these mechanically derived measures of the output gap are useful. Policymakers should make careful estimates of the likely fall in potential output on the basis of other information.

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