scholarly journals Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming

2007 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 481-500 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamsin L. Edwards ◽  
Michel Crucifix ◽  
Sandy P. Harrison
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Equilibrium Temperature ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Simple Measure ◽  
Geological Past ◽  
Instrumental Period ◽  
Global Mean

Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5—4.5°C, has changed little subsequently, including the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The persistence of such large uncertainties in this simple measure casts doubt on our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change and our ability to predict the response of the climate system to future perturbations. This has motivated continued attempts to constrain the range with climate data, alone or in conjunction with models. The majority of studies use data from the instrumental period (post-1850), but recent work has made use of information about the large climate changes experienced in the geological past. In this review, we first outline approaches that estimate climate sensitivity using instrumental climate observations and then summarize attempts to use the record of climate change on geological timescales. We examine the limitations of these studies and suggest ways in which the power of the palaeoclimate record could be better used to reduce uncertainties in our predictions of climate sensitivity.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Scientific “Consensus” on Global Warming

1996 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 333-348 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick J. Michaels ◽  
Paul C. Knappenberger
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
United Nations ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Sulfate Aerosols ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Consensus Process ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Extreme Scenario

Climate data support the “moderate” prediction of climate change (l-1.5°C) rather than the more extreme scenario (4°C or more). The moderate point of view was originally marginalized in the IPCC “consensus” process in both the 1990 First Assessment on Climate Change and in the 1992 Update prepared specifically for the Earth Summit and to provide backing for the Rio Framework Convention on Climate Change. It is now accepted, based on ground-based data, that the errors in those models are currently between 160% and 360%. If one compares them to the satellite data combined with the land record, the error rises to a maximum of 720%. In some recognition of this massive error, the 1995 IPCC “consensus” is that warming has been mitigated by sulfate aerosols. However, when that hypothesis is specifically tested, it fails. Further, data required to test the validity of the sulfate enhanced greenhouse models was withheld by the IPCC. despite repeated requests.

scholarly journals ATTRICI 1.0 – counterfactual climate for impact attribution

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Mengel ◽  
Simon Treu ◽  
Stefan Lange ◽  
Katja Frieler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Impact Events ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Climate has changed over the past century due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. In parallel, societies and their environment have evolved rapidly. To identify the impacts of historical climate change on human or natural systems, it is therefore necessary to separate the effect of different drivers. By definition this is done by comparing the observed situation to a counterfactual one in which climate change is absent and other drivers change according to observations. As such a counterfactual baseline cannot be observed it has to be estimated by process-based or empirical models. We here present ATTRICI (ATTRIbuting Climate Impacts), an approach to remove the signal of global warming from observational climate data to generate forcing data for the simulation of a counterfactual baseline of impact indicators. Our method identifies the interannual and annual cycle shifts that are correlated to global mean temperature change. We use quantile mapping to a baseline distribution that removes the global mean temperature related shifts to find counterfactual values for the observed daily climate data. Applied to each variable of two climate datasets, we produce two counterfactual datasets that are made available through the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) along with the original datasets. Our method preserves the internal variability of the observed data in the sense that observed (factual) and counterfactual data for a given day remain in the same quantile in their respective statistical distribution. That makes it possible to compare observed impact events and counterfactual impact events. Our approach adjusts for the long-term trends associated with global warming but does not address the attribution of climate change to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

Advances in the data rescue and digitization of historical wind speed observations in Sweden: the WINDGUST project

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Engström ◽  
Cesar Azorin-Molina ◽  
Lennart Wern ◽  
Sverker Hellström ◽  
Christophe Sturm ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Staff Members ◽  
The 1960S

<p>Here we present the progress of the first work package (WP1) of the project “Assessing centennial wind speed variability from a historical weather data rescue project in Sweden” (WINDGUST), funded by FORMAS – A Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (ref. 2019-00509); previously introduced in EGU2019-17792-1 and EGU2020-3491. In a global climate change, one of the major uncertainties on the causes driving the climate variability of winds (i.e., the “stilling” phenomenon and the recent “recovery” since the 2010s) is mainly due to short availability (i.e., since the 1960s) and low quality of observed wind records as stated by the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).</p><p>The WINDGUST is a joint initiative between the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) and the University of Gothenburg aimed at filling the key gap of short availability and low quality of wind datasets, and improve the limited knowledge on the causes driving wind speed variability in a changing climate across Sweden.</p><p>During 2020, we worked in WP1 to rescue historical wind speed series available in the old weather archives at SMHI for the 1920s-1930s. In the process we followed the “Guidelines on Best Practices for Climate Data Rescue” of the World Meteorological Organization. Our protocol consisted on: (i) designing a template for digitization; (ii) digitizing papers by an imaging process based on scanning and photographs; and (iii) typing numbers of wind speed data into the template. We will report the advances and current status, challenges and experiences learned during the development of WP1. Until new year 2020/2021 eight out of thirteen selected stations spanning over the years 1925 to 1948 have been scanned and digitized by three staff members of SMHI during 1,660 manhours.</p>

scholarly journals Simulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. e56026
Author(s):  
Gabriela Leite Neves ◽  
Jorim Sousa das Virgens Filho ◽  
Maysa de Lima Leite ◽  
Frederico Fabio Mauad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Impact

Water is an essential natural resource that is being impacted by climate change. Thus, knowledge of future water availability conditions around the globe becomes necessary. Based on that, this study aimed to simulate future climate scenarios and evaluate the impact on water balance in southern Brazil. Daily data of rainfall and air temperature (maximum and minimum) were used. The meteorological data were collected in 28 locations over 30 years (1980-2009). For the data simulation, we used the climate data stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R. It was considered two scenarios of the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a scenario with the historical data trend. The water balance estimates were performed for the current data and the simulated data, through the methodology of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). The moisture indexes were spatialized by the kriging method. These indexes were chosen as the parameters to represent the water conditions in different situations. The region assessed presented a high variability in water availability among locations; however, it did not present high water deficiency values, even with climate change. Overall, it was observed a reduction of moisture index in most sites and in all scenarios assessed, especially in the northern region when compared to the other regions. The second scenario of the IPCC (the worst situation) promoting higher reductions and dry conditions for the 2099 year. The impacts of climate change on water availability, identified in this study, can affect the general society, therefore, they must be considered in the planning and management of water resources, especially in the regional context

scholarly journals Community Adaptation Model of Food Security Due to Global Warming in Kulon Progo

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sri Rum Giyarsih
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Survey Methods ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
The Impact

Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s surface. According to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) average temperature of the Earth’s surface was global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the 0.74 ± 0.18 0C (1.33 ± 0.32 F) over the last hundred years. The impact of rising temperatures is the climate change effect on agricultural production. If the community does not craft made adaptation to global warming will have an impact on food security. This research aims to know the society’s adaptation to food security as a result of global warming and to know the influence of global warming on food security. The research was carried out based on survey methods. The influence of global warming on food security is identified with a share of household food expenditure and the identification of rainfall. Sampling was done by random sampling. The Data used are the primary and secondary data. Primary Data obtained through structured interviews and depth interview using a questionnaire while the secondary data retrieved from publication data of the Central Bureau Statistics B(BPS), Department of Agriculture and Climatology Meteorology and Geophysics (BMKG). The expected results of the study is to know variations of food security due to global warming in Kulon Progo Regency. Comprehensive knowledge through community participation and related Government increased food security that is used as the basis for drafting the model society’s adaptation to the impacts of global warming.

scholarly journals Estimates of climate system properties incorporating recent climate change

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1/2) ◽  
pp. 19-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex G. Libardoni ◽  
Chris E. Forest ◽  
Andrei P. Sokolov ◽  
Erwan Monier
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Temperature Rise ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Historical time series of surface temperature and ocean heat content changes are commonly used metrics to diagnose climate change and estimate properties of the climate system. We show that recent trends, namely the slowing of surface temperature rise at the beginning of the 21st century and the acceleration of heat stored in the deep ocean, have a substantial impact on these estimates. Using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Earth System Model (MESM), we vary three model parameters that influence the behavior of the climate system: effective climate sensitivity (ECS), the effective ocean diffusivity of heat anomalies by all mixing processes (Kv), and the net anthropogenic aerosol forcing scaling factor. Each model run is compared to observed changes in decadal mean surface temperature anomalies and the trend in global mean ocean heat content change to derive a joint probability distribution function for the model parameters. Marginal distributions for individual parameters are found by integrating over the other two parameters. To investigate how the inclusion of recent temperature changes affects our estimates, we systematically include additional data by choosing periods that end in 1990, 2000, and 2010. We find that estimates of ECS increase in response to rising global surface temperatures when data beyond 1990 are included, but due to the slowdown of surface temperature rise in the early 21st century, estimates when using data up to 2000 are greater than when data up to 2010 are used. We also show that estimates of Kv increase in response to the acceleration of heat stored in the ocean as data beyond 1990 are included. Further, we highlight how including spatial patterns of surface temperature change modifies the estimates. We show that including latitudinal structure in the climate change signal impacts properties with spatial dependence, namely the aerosol forcing pattern, more than properties defined for the global mean, climate sensitivity, and ocean diffusivity.

Introduction

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
David W. Orr
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Political Leader ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Assessment Report ◽  
Cambridge University ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The Media ◽  
Political Trauma ◽  
E Mail

In our final hour (2003), cambridge university astronomer Martin Rees concluded that the odds of global civilization surviving to the year 2100 are no better than one in two. His assessment of threats to humankind ranging from climate change to a collision of Earth with an asteroid received good reviews in the science press, but not a peep from any political leader and scant notice from the media. Compare that nonresponse to a hypothetical story reporting, say, that the president had had an affair. The blow-dried electronic pundits, along with politicians of all kinds, would have spared no effort to expose and analyze the situation down to parts per million. But Rees’s was only one of many credible and well-documented warnings from scientists going back decades, including the Fourth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007). All were greeted with varying levels of denial, indifference, and misinterpretation, or were simply ignored altogether. It is said to be a crime to cause panic in a crowded theater by yelling “fire” without cause, but is it less criminal not to warn people when the theater is indeed burning? My starting point is the oddly tepid response by U.S. leaders at virtually all levels to global warming, more accurately described as “global destabilization.” I will be as optimistic as a careful reading of the evidence permits and assume that leaders will rouse themselves to act in time to stabilize and then reduce concentrations of greenhouse gases below the level at which we lose control of the climate altogether by the effects of what scientists call “positive carbon cycle feedbacks.” Even so, with a warming approaching or above 2°C we will not escape severe social, economic, and political trauma. In an e-mail to the author on November 19, 2007, ecologist and founder of the Woods Hole Research Center George Woodwell puts it this way: . . . There is an unfortunate fiction abroad that if we can hold the temperature rise to 2 or 3 degrees C we can accommodate the changes. The proposition is the worst of wishful thinking.

scholarly journals Climate change impact – residential unit

2019 ◽  
Vol 279 ◽  
pp. 03007
Author(s):  
Ján Hollý ◽  
Adela Palková
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Residential Unit ◽  
Data Application ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Selection Of

The issue of climate change is undeniably demonstrating its presence. Consequently, there is a rising need to be prepared for upcoming threats by any means possible. One of the precautions includes obtaining the information characterizing the expected impact of global warming. This will allow authorities and other stakeholders to act accordingly in time. The article presents the assessment of the extent of impact of energy-related construction solutions in dwelling type unit situated in Central Europe region under the 21st century climate conditions. The findings represent eventual demands of energy for cooling and heating and its prospective savings. This is conducted by consecutively and automatically changing the parameters in individual simulation runs. As a basis for simulations, regionally scaled weather data of three different climate areas are used. These data are based on the emission scenarios by IPCC and are reaching to the year 2100. The selection of assessed parameters and climate data application are briefly explained in the article. The results of simulations are evaluated and recommended solutions are stated in regard to the specific energy-related construction changes. The aim is to successfully mitigate and adapt to the climate change phenomenon.

scholarly journals Global Warming: The Balance of Evidence and Its Policy Implications

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 357-411 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Keller
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Societal Implications ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Controversial Issues ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
New Information ◽  
Third Assessment Report ◽  
Made In

Global warming and attendant climate change have been controversial for at least a decade. This is largely because of its societal implications. With the recent publication of the Third Assessment Report of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change there has been renewed interest and controversy about how certain the scientific community is of its conclusions: that humans are influencing the climate and that global temperatures will continue to rise rapidly in this century. This review attempts to update what is known and in particular what advances have been made in the past 5 years or so. It does not attempt to be comprehensive. Rather it focuses on the most controversial issues, which are actually few in number. They are: 1-Is the surface temperature record accurate or is it biased by heat from cities, etc.? 2-Is that record significantly different from past warmings such as the Medieval Warming Period? 3-Is not the sun’s increasing activity the cause of most of the warming? 4-Can we model climate and predict its future, or is it just too complex and chaotic? 5-Are there any other changes in climate other than warming, and can they be attributed to the warming?Despite continued uncertainties, the review finds affirmative answers to these questions. Of particular interest are advances that seem to explain why satellites do not see as much warming as surface instruments, how we are getting a good idea of recent paleoclimates, and why the 20thcentury temperature record was so complex. It makes the point that in each area new information could come to light that would change our thinking on the quantitative magnitude and timing of anthropogenic warming, but it is unlikely to alter the basic conclusions.Finally, there is a very brief discussion of the societal policy response to the scientific message, and the author comments on his 2-year email discussions with many of the world’s most outspoken critics of the anthropogenic warming hypothesis.

Agro-ecological field vulnerability evaluation and climate change impacts in Souma area (Iran), using MicroLEIS DSS

Biologia ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Farzin Shahbazi ◽  
Ali Jafarzadeh ◽  
Mohammad Shahbazi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heavy Metal Contamination ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Environmental Change ◽  
Agricultural Practices ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
North West ◽  
Evaluation Approach

AbstractSoil erosion and contamination are two main desertification indices or land degradation agents in agricultural areas. Global climate change consequence is a priority to predict global environmental change impacts on these degradation risks. This agro-ecological approach can be especially useful when formulating soil specific agricultural practices based on the spatial variability of soils and related resources to reverse environmental degradation. Raizal and Pantanal models within the new MicroLEIS framework, the Ero&Con package, are database/expert system evaluation approach for assessing limitations to land use, or vulnerability of the land to specified agricultural degradation risks. This study was performed in Souma area with approximately 4100 ha extension in the North-West of Iran (west Azarbaijan). Based on 35 sampling soils, Typic Xerofluvents, Typic Calcixerepts, Fluventic Haploxerepts and Fluventic Endaquepts were classified as main subgroups. Climatological data, referred to temperature and precipitation of more than 36 consecutive years were collected from Urmieh station reports and stored in monthly Climate Database CDBm, as a major component of MicroLEIS DSS (CDBm) program. Climate data for a hypothetical future scenario were collected from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports for the 2080s period. The evaluation approach predicts that attainable water erosion vulnerability classes were none (V1) very low (V2) and moderately low (V4) in the total of 72%, 13% and 15% of the Souma area, respectively and they will not affected by climate change. On contrary, attainable wind erosion vulnerability classes will increase. Also, phosphorous and heavy metal contamination vulnerability risks will not differ in two compared scenarios while nitrogen and pesticides vulnerability classes will be improved.

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