The Logic of the Punisher: Retrospective Voting and Hyper-Accountability in Lithuania

2021 ◽  
pp. 088832542110644
Author(s):  
Mažvydas Jastramskis
Keyword(s):  
Strong Predictor ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Political Factors ◽  
New Parties ◽  
Satisfaction With Democracy ◽  
Retrospective Voting ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
Subsequent Choice ◽  
The Government ◽  
Objective Indicators

This article explores the roots of electoral hyper-accountability in Central and Eastern Europe. I focus on Lithuania: a country that is a stable liberal democracy, but has re-elected none of its governments (in the same party composition) since the restoration of independence. Survey data from the Lithuanian National Election Study reveal that Lithuanian voters are constantly dissatisfied with the economy and retrospectively evaluate it worse than the objective indicators would suggest. This partially explains why the Lithuanian voters constantly turn away from the government parties at parliamentary elections. However, their subsequent choice between parliamentary and new (previously marginal) parties is another puzzle. Using the 2016 Lithuanian post-election survey, I test how retrospective voting (economic and corruption issues) and political factors (trust and satisfaction with democracy) explain vote choice between the three types of parties (governmental, oppositional, and successful new party). It appears that new parties in Lithuania capitalize on double dissatisfaction, as the logic of the punisher comprises two steps. First, due to economic discontent, she turns away from the incumbent. Second, due to political mistrust, she often turns not to the parliamentary opposition, but to new parties. An analysis of retrospective economic evaluations hints at the political roots of hyper-accountability: these two steps are connected, as dissatisfaction with democracy is a strong predictor of negative retrospective evaluations of economy. Additional analysis of the 2019 post-election survey corroborates the results and reveals that a similar logic also applies in direct presidential elections.

The rotating Presidency of the Council of the EU – Still an agenda-setter?

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 497-518
Author(s):  
Austė Vaznonytė
Keyword(s):  
Institutional Changes ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Issue Salience ◽  
Political Factors ◽  
Agenda Setter ◽  
Panel Model ◽  
The Government ◽  
Council Presidency ◽  
Over Time ◽  
The Eu

What role does the rotating Council Presidency maintain a decade after Lisbon? This article argues that, regardless of institutional changes, the rotating Presidency still shapes the Council agenda to a large extent. Based on an original hand-coded dataset of rotating Presidency programmes between 1997 and 2017, I show that some policies are ‘stickier’ on the Council agenda, while the others exhibit significant changes in salience over time. Since the magnitude of these shifts varies from Presidency to Presidency, the analysis focuses on domestic political factors and the country positioning vis-à-vis the European Union to determine their relationship with agenda volatility. By means of a panel model, the examination demonstrates that the government issue salience can best explain the levels of issue salience in the Presidency programmes.

scholarly journals The Effect of Partisan Representation at Different Levels of Government on Satisfaction with Democracy in the United States

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julie VanDusky-Allen ◽  
Stephen M. Utych
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
State Government ◽  
The United States ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Satisfaction With Democracy ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
American National Election Study ◽  
Respective State ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
Analyze Data

AbstractIn this paper, we analyze how variations in partisan representation across different levels of government influence Americans’ satisfaction with the democracy in the United States. We conduct two survey experiments and analyze data from the 2016 American National Election Study postelection survey. We find that Americans are the most satisfied with democracy when their most preferred party controls both the federal and their respective state governments. However, we also find that even if an individual’s least preferred party only controls one level of government, they are still more satisfied with democracy than if their most preferred party controls no levels of government. These findings suggest that competition in elections across both the national and state government, where winning and losing alternates between the two parties, may have positive outcomes for attitudes toward democracy.

Explaining Public-Private Partnership Projects through Political Factors: An Assessment of Developing Countries

2021 ◽  
pp. 003232172110403
Author(s):  
Noemí Peña-Miguel ◽  
Beatriz Cuadrado-Ballesteros
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Political Ideology ◽  
Political Competition ◽  
Public Private Partnership ◽  
Public Private Partnerships ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Political Factors ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Private Partnership ◽  
The Government

This article analyses the effect of political factors on the use of Public Private Partnerships in developing countries. According to a sample of 80 low- and middle-income countries over the period 1995–2017, our findings suggest that Public Private Partnership projects are affected by political ideology, the strength of the government and electoral cycles. Concretely, they tend to be used by left-wing governments to a greater extent than governments with other ideologies. Public Private Partnerships also tend to be more frequently used by fragmented governments and when there is greater political competition. There is also some evidence (although slight) on the relevance of the proximity of elections in explaining Public Private Partnerships in developing countries.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THINK TANKS IN THE U.S. IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY: THE POLITICAL AND SOCIOECONOMIC CONTEXT

2020 ◽  
pp. 99-109
Author(s):  
Iana V. Shchetinskaia ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Relations ◽  
The United States ◽  
Think Tanks ◽  
Rand Corporation ◽  
The Political ◽  
International Crises ◽  
Political Factors ◽  
The Government ◽  
The U.S

Research institutions and specifically think tanks have existed and developed in the United States for more than 100 years. Since their inception, they have changed and evolved in many ways, while expanding their research foci and political impact. Since the 2010s, a few experts in the field have observed that the U.S. policy expertise is now in crisis. To understand current challenges of policy analysis institutions it is important to study them in a historical retrospective. This article explores the political and socioeconomic contexts in which think tanks emerged and developed from 1910 to the 1950-s. It particularly examines the role of international crises, as well as domestic political factors, such as the role of philanthropy organizations, institutional changes in the government, and others. It discusses how these domestic and foreign policy aspects affected the early development of the Carnegie Endowment for the International Peace (1910), the Council on Foreign Relations (1921) and the RAND Corporation (1948).

scholarly journals Retrospective Voting and the Polarization of Available Alternatives

2019 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dieter Stiers ◽  
Ruth Dassonneville
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Study ◽  
Electoral Systems ◽  
Performance Evaluations ◽  
Retrospective Voting ◽  
Theoretical Perspectives ◽  
Ideological Polarization ◽  
Clarity Of Responsibility ◽  
Ideological Differences ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Comparative Study

AbstractGovernment cohesiveness is known to moderate retrospective voting. While previous work on this topic has focused on characteristics of the government, we build on the literature on clarity of responsibility and the literature on valence to argue that the extent to which government and opposition are ideologically distinct also moderates retrospective voting. Two alternative expectations follow from these two theoretical perspectives. While the clarity of responsibility framework leads to the expectation that a larger difference between government and opposition will strengthen retrospective voting, the valence literature presumes that retrospective voting is stronger when ideological differences are small. Using the data of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) project, we find evidence that is in line with the clarity of responsibility framework: the higher the degree of ideological polarization between government and opposition, the larger the effect of retrospective performance evaluations on the vote.

The Religious Divide in Voting Preferences and Attitudes in the 2019 Election

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shreyas Sardesai
Keyword(s):  
Sufficient Evidence ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Large Measure ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Election Result ◽  
The Core ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Government

This article attempts to empirically test the claims made by several commentators that religious polarization was at the core of the 2019 Lok Sabha election verdict. Relying heavily on the National Election Study (NES) data sets, it finds that the election result was in large measure an outcome of massive vote consolidation on religious lines, with the majority Hindu community preferring the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in unprecedented proportion and the main religious minorities largely staying away from it, although there were some exceptions. It shows that, for two national elections in a row, the Narendra Modi- and Amit Shah-led BJP has been able to overcome the caste hierarchies among Hindus and systematically construct a Hindu category of voters versus others. This chasm between Hindus and the minorities is also seen with respect to their attitudes regarding the government, its leadership and contentious issues like the Ayodhya dispute. This article, however, does not find sufficient evidence with regard to the claims that a large part of the Hindu support for the BJP-led alliance may have been on account of anti-minority sentiments.

The post-crisis Irish voter

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
New Parties ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
University Courses ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
History Of ◽  
Established Democracies ◽  
Unique Dataset ◽  
Cross National

This is the definitive study of the Irish general election of 2016 – the most dramatic election in a generation, which among other things resulted in the worst electoral outcome for Ireland’s established parties, the most fractionalized party system in the history of the state, and the emergence of new parties and groups, some of these of a ‘populist’ hue. This was one of the most volatile elections in Ireland (and among one of the most volatile elections in Europe), with among the lowest of election turnouts in the state’s history. These outcomes follow a pattern seen across a number of Western Europe’s established democracies in which the ‘deep crisis’ of the Great Recession has wreaked havoc on party systems. The objective of this book is to assess this most extraordinary of Irish elections both in its Irish and wider cross-national context. With contributions from leading scholars on Irish elections and parties, and using a unique dataset – the Irish National Election Study (INES) 2016 – this volume explores voting patterns at Ireland’s first post crisis election and it considers the implications for the electoral landscape and politics in Ireland. This book will be of interest to scholars of parties and elections. It should provide important supplementary reading to any university courses on Irish politics. And it should also be of interest to general readers interested in contemporary Irish affairs.

Immigrant Resentment and Voter Fraud Beliefs in the U.S. Electorate

2017 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 402-433 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adriano Udani ◽  
David C. Kimball
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Strong Predictor ◽  
The United States ◽  
Congressional Election ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Public Beliefs ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
American National Election Study ◽  
Immigration Politics ◽  
Voter Fraud

Public beliefs about the frequency of voter fraud are frequently cited to support restrictive voting laws in the United States. However, some sources of public beliefs about voter fraud have received little attention. We identify two conditions that combine to make anti-immigrant attitudes a strong predictor of voter fraud beliefs. First, the recent growth and dispersion of the immigrant population makes immigration a salient consideration for many Americans. Second, an immigrant threat narrative in political discourse linking immigration to crime and political dysfunction has been extended to the voting domain. Using new data from a survey module in the 2014 Cooperative Congressional Election Study and the 2012 American National Election Study, we show that immigrant resentment is strongly associated with voter fraud beliefs. Widespread hostility toward immigrants helps nourish public beliefs about voter fraud and support for voting restrictions in the United States. The conditions generating this relationship in public opinion likely exist in other nations roiled by immigration politics. The topic of fraudulent electoral practices will likely continue to provoke voters to call to mind groups that are politically constructed as “un-American.”

scholarly journals The Great Recession and new class voting in Iceland

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 159-182
Author(s):  
Agnar Freyr Helgason
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Multinomial Logistic Regression ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Occupational Class ◽  
New Parties ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
New Class ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
Class Voting ◽  
New Type

Conventional wisdom suggests that occupational class plays a limited role in explaining vote choice in Iceland. In this paper, we argue that the death of class in Icelandic politics may be premature and that it still plays a role in structuring political preferences and party choice. While the importance of the traditional class cleavage may have declined to the point of irrelevance, we suggest that there is a new type of class voting in Iceland, containing both a vertical and a horizontal component. Furthermore, we argue that the Great Recession played a critical role in increasing the strength of class voting around this new class schema, both because of the conflict around economic issues it generated, but also because of its facilitation of the formation and success of new parties. We test our main hypotheses using multinomial logistic regression on data from the Icelandic National Election Study from 1999 to 2016 and apply a modified measure of cleavage strength, which we refer to as “Full Kappa”. Our results suggest that class voting is alive and well in Iceland and that its strength has increased following the Great Recession.

scholarly journals The Day After the Bomb: Well-Being Effects of Terrorist Attacks in Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emilio Colombo ◽  
Valentina Rotondi ◽  
Luca Stanca
Keyword(s):  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Well Being ◽  
European Social Survey ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Negative Attitudes ◽  
Social Survey ◽  
Satisfaction With Democracy ◽  
Muslim Immigrants ◽  
The Government

AbstractWe study the non-monetary costs of terrorist attacks in France, Belgium and Germany between 2010 and 2017. Using four waves of the European Social Survey, we find that individual well-being is significantly reduced in the aftermath of a terrorist attack. We explore possible mechanisms, finding that terrorist attacks are negatively correlated with generalized trust, institutional trust, satisfaction with democracy and satisfaction with the government. Terrorist attacks are also found to be positively correlated with negative attitudes towards migrants and perceived discrimination. Contrary to expectations, the negative relationship between terrorism and well-being is less strong for Muslim immigrants. We interpret this finding as an indication that immigrants benefit more than natives from the institutional reaction following terrorist attacks.

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