scholarly journals Interplay between COVID-19 vaccines and social measures for ending the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

F1000Research ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 803
Author(s):  
Glenn Young ◽  
Pengcheng Xiao ◽  
Ken Newcomb ◽  
Edwin Michael
Keyword(s):  
Practical Importance ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Social Intervention ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
The Face ◽  
Reduced Adherence

Background: The development and authorization of COVID-19 vaccines has provided the clearest path forward to eliminate community spread and thus end the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the limited pace at which the vaccine can be administered motivates the question, to what extent must we continue to adhere to social intervention measures such as mask wearing and social distancing? Methods: We develop a mathematical model of COVID-19 spread incorporating both vaccine dynamics and socio-epidemiological parameters. We use this model to study two important measures of disease control and eradication, the effective reproductive number Rt and the peak intensive care unit (ICU) caseload, over three key parameters: social measure adherence, vaccination rate, and vaccination coverage. Results: Our results suggest that, due to the slow pace of vaccine administration, social measures must be maintained by a large proportion of the population until a sufficient proportion of the population becomes vaccinated for the pandemic to be eradicated. By contrast, with reduced adherence to social measures, hospital ICU cases will greatly exceed capacity, resulting in increased avoidable loss of life. We then investigate the threat of localized outbreaks in low-vaccinated populations that have removed all social intervention mandates, and show that such populations could remain highly susceptible to major outbreaks particularly in the face of more easily transmissible variants.  Conclusions: These findings highlight the complex interplay involved between vaccination and social protective measures, and indicate the practical importance of continuing with extant social measures while vaccines are scaled up to allow the development of the herd immunity needed to end or control SARS-CoV-2 sustainably.

scholarly journals Will the Large-scale Vaccination Succeed in Containing the COVID-19 Epidemic and How Soon?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shilei Zhao ◽  
Tong Sha ◽  
Yongbiao Xue ◽  
Chung-I Wu ◽  
Hua Chen
Keyword(s):  
United States Of America ◽  
Vaccine Efficacy ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
Vaccination Scheme ◽  
Mutant Strains ◽  
Promising Solution

The availability of vaccines provides a promising solution to containing the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we develop an epidemiological model to quantitatively analyze and predict the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 under vaccination. The model is applied to the daily released numbers of confirmed cases of Israel and United States of America to explore and predict the trend under vaccination based on their current epidemic status and intervention measures. For Israel, of which 53.83% of the population was fully vaccinated, under the current intensity of NPIs and vaccination scheme, the pandemic is predicted to end between May 14, 2021 to May 16, 2021 depending on an immunity duration between 180 days and 365 days; Assuming no NPIs after March 24, 2021, the pandemic will ends later, between July 4, 2021 to August 26, 2021. For USA, if we assume the current vaccination rate (0.268% per day) and intensity of NPIs, the pandemic will end between February 3, 2022 and August 17, 2029 depending on an immunity duration between 180 days and 365 days. However, assuming an immunity duration of 180 days and with no NPIs, the pandemic will not end, and instead reach an equilibrium state with a proportion of the population remaining actively infected. Overall the daily vaccination rate should be chosen according to the vaccine efficacy and the immunity duration to achieve herd immunity. In some situations, vaccination alone cannot stop the pandemic, and NPIs are necessary both to supplement vaccination and accelerate the end of the pandemic. Considering that vaccine efficacy and duration of immunity may be reduced for new mutant strains, it is necessary to remain cautiously optimistic about the prospect of the pandemic under vaccination.

scholarly journals The Utilization of Protective Face Masks among Polish Healthcare Workers during COVID-19 Pandemic: Do We Pass the Exam?

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 841
Author(s):  
Radomir Reszke ◽  
Łukasz Matusiak ◽  
Piotr K. Krajewski ◽  
Marta Szepietowska ◽  
Rafał Białynicki-Birula ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
Medical Profession ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Internet Survey ◽  
World Health ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
Who Criteria ◽  
The Face ◽  
Health Organization

Relevant personal protective measures during the COVID-19 pandemic include face masks, possibly decreasing the risk of infection among the general population and healthcare workers (HCW) if utilized properly. The aim of the study was to assess whether different Polish HCW utilize face masks according to the 2020 World Health Organization guidance (WHO) criteria. This cross-sectional study included 1156 respondents who participated in an internet survey evaluating mask-related behaviors. All the WHO criteria were complied with by 1.4% of participants, regardless of medical profession, specialty or place of employment. HCW mostly adhered to criterion 1 (C1; strict covering of the face and mouth with the mask; 90.8%), C4 (washing/disinfecting the hands after touching/taking off the mask; 49%) and C3 (taking off the mask properly without touching the anterior surface; 43.4%), whereas C2 (avoidance of touching the mask with hands) was complied with least commonly (6.8%). HCW with mask-induced itch (31.6%) complied to C2 less often (odds ratio 0.53; p = 0.01). The study reveals that Polish HCW rarely adhere to all the 2020 WHO guidance criteria on the use of masks, whereas the adherence to particular criteria is variable and may be associated with the presence of skin-related conditions and other factors. Better compliance with the recommendations in the future is necessary to increase personal safety of HCW and prevent the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

scholarly journals The Effect of Vaccination Rates on the Infection of COVID-19 under the Vaccination Rate below the Herd Immunity Threshold

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (14) ◽  
pp. 7491
Author(s):  
Yi-Tui Chen
Keyword(s):  
Infection Rate ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The World ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact

Although vaccination is carried out worldwide, the vaccination rate varies greatly. As of 24 May 2021, in some countries, the proportion of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19 has exceeded 50%, but in many countries, this proportion is still very low, less than 1%. This article aims to explore the impact of vaccination on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. As the herd immunity of almost all countries in the world has not been reached, several countries were selected as sample cases by employing the following criteria: more than 60 vaccine doses per 100 people and a population of more than one million people. In the end, a total of eight countries/regions were selected, including Israel, the UAE, Chile, the United Kingdom, the United States, Hungary, and Qatar. The results find that vaccination has a major impact on reducing infection rates in all countries. However, the infection rate after vaccination showed two trends. One is an inverted U-shaped trend, and the other is an L-shaped trend. For those countries with an inverted U-shaped trend, the infection rate begins to decline when the vaccination rate reaches 1.46–50.91 doses per 100 people.

scholarly journals Herd immunity drives the epidemic fadeout of avian cholera in Arctic-nesting seabirds

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacintha G. B. van Dijk ◽  
Samuel A. Iverson ◽  
H. Grant Gilchrist ◽  
N. Jane Harms ◽  
Holly L. Hennin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colony Size ◽  
Pasteurella Multocida ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Somateria Mollissima ◽  
Common Eiders ◽  
Serological Status ◽  
Antibody Titers ◽  
Avian Cholera

AbstractAvian cholera, caused by the bacterium Pasteurella multocida, is a common and important infectious disease of wild birds in North America. Between 2005 and 2012, avian cholera caused annual mortality of widely varying magnitudes in Northern common eiders (Somateria mollissima borealis) breeding at the largest colony in the Canadian Arctic, Mitivik Island, Nunavut. Although herd immunity, in which a large proportion of the population acquires immunity to the disease, has been suggested to play a role in epidemic fadeout, immunological studies exploring this hypothesis have been missing. We investigated the role of three potential drivers of fadeout of avian cholera in eiders, including immunity, prevalence of infection, and colony size. Each potential driver was examined in relation to the annual real-time reproductive number (Rt) of P. multocida, previously calculated for eiders at Mitivik Island. Each year, colony size was estimated and eiders were closely monitored, and evaluated for infection and serological status. We demonstrate that acquired immunity approximated using antibody titers to P. multocida in both sexes was likely a key driver for the epidemic fadeout. This study exemplifies the importance of herd immunity in influencing the dynamics and fadeout of epidemics in a wildlife population.

Studies on the storage of potatoes. III. The composition of the atmosphere in a potato clamp

1950 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 227-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. M. Crook ◽  
D. J. Watson
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Wind Velocity ◽  
Practical Importance ◽  
Oxygen Depletion ◽  
Unsaturated Compounds ◽  
The Face ◽  
Flow Through ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Oxygen Concentrations

The CO2 concentration in the atmosphere of a potato clamp varied between 0·06 and 0·86%. The sum of CO2 and oxygen concentrations remained approximately constant at 21%. The CO2 concentration increased with time from December to April. This was attributed to increase in the rate of respiration of the potatoes caused by rise of temperature. Wind blowing in the direction normal to the face of the clamp reduced the COa concentration, presumably by causing external air to flow through the clamp coverings. A multiple regression of CO2 concentration on temperature of the potatoes at the time of sampling, and on the mean component of wind velocity normal to the clamp face estimated over a period of 3 hr. before the time of sampling, accounted for 64% of the variance between sampling occasions.Unsaturated compounds were detected in the clamp atmosphere by absorption in bromine; the concentration of these, expressed as ethylene, varied between 0·004 and 0·025%.The magnitude of CO2 accumulation and oxygen depletion in the clamp atmosphere was too small to produce effects of practical importance on the storage behaviour of the potatoes. If the unsaturated compounds were ethylene, the concentration present was sufficient to cause appreciable retardation of sprouting.

scholarly journals Metaphysics and the Existential Problematic of Human Finitude

Lumen et Vita ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Taylor Nutter
Keyword(s):  
Human Life ◽  
Practical Importance ◽  
Human Person ◽  
Finite Horizon ◽  
The World ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Intentional Structure ◽  
Working Out ◽  
Human Finitude

Rather than being of little practical importance, the metaphysical underpinnings of a given horizon determine the character of its existential problematic. With the breakdown of classical metaphysics concomitant with the modern turn to the subjective, the existential problematic of finitude as ultimate horizon arose. According to this subjective turn, the human person can no longer engage the world as though it were in itself constituted by transcendently grounded meaning and value. Standing within this genealogical lineage, Martin Heidegger undertook a phenomenological investigation into the existential constitution of the human person which defines authenticity in terms of finitude. For the early Heidegger, human life is essentially ‘guilty’. This guilt, however, is not the traditional cognizance of one’s sinfulness, but the foundational Nichtigkeit (‘nullity’) of life and its attendant possibilities in the light of the ultimate finality of death. Authenticity, then, consists of a resolute working out of one’s life in the face of such inevitable finality. For the later Heidegger, the finite horizon of a particular epochal disclosure gifts Being to thought and determines it thereby. Authenticity in this case consists of giving oneself over to be appropriated by an event of Being. In contrast, Lonergan understands authenticity as being true to that primordial love which beckons us to intellectual probity and responsibility in working out life’s possibilities. This essay will illustrate how Lonergan’s analysis of the intentional structure of human conscious operations stands as a corrective to Heidegger’s early existential analysis of human being-in-the-world and later thought about Being. While Lonergan defines authenticity as loving openness to transcendent Being, Heidegger, because of his forgetfulness of the subject in her conscious operations, does not allow for a transcendence which stands beyond any finite horizon. 

scholarly journals COVID-19 Vaccination Rates by Global Universal Health Care Coverage Status

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-36
Author(s):  
Deepa Dongarwar ◽  
Hamisu M. Salihu
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Universal Health Care ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
Creative Commons ◽  
Universal Health Care Coverage ◽  
Universal Health ◽  
Open Access Article ◽  
Better Than

Healthcare coverage and the type of insurance have always played huge roles in public health outcomes. With coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) vaccination now available across the world, we sought to determine vaccination rates across countries with Universal Health Care (UHC) coverage versus those without. We utilized the vaccination information from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations website, and calculated early vaccination rate for each country as of January, 13, 2021 by dividing the total number of vaccinations given to the total population of the country. We observed that the average early vaccination rate for countries with UHC was 1.55%, whereas that for countries without UHC was 0.51%. Countries with UHC are performing much better than those without UHC in this initial race for providing herd immunity across the globe.   Copyright © 2021 Dongarwar and Salihu. Published by Global Health and Education Projects, Inc. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License CC BY 4.0.

Apathy and Ignorance: False Prophets of Autism and the Anti-Vaccine Movement

2020 ◽  
pp. 389-398
Author(s):  
Michael B. A. Oldstone
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Workers ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Personal Beliefs ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
False Reporting ◽  
The Face ◽  
Public Health Workers ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Brain

This chapter highlights the story of autism, the widespread acceptance of its incorrect cause, and the impact on use of vaccines, all stemming directly from deliberate, false reporting. The basic conflict is twofold. First, involvement of a scientific method that must be reproducible, be reliable, and possess substantial proof is in conflict with common/personal beliefs. Second, doctors, scientists, and public health workers, despite their mandate to listen to parents and patients concerning their opinions, must base medical conclusions on evidence that validates the outcome of each patient’s health issue. It is in this milieu that autism and the anti-vaccine groups still do battle. In 1998, Lancet, a usually respectable and reputable English journal, published Dr. Andrew Wakefield’s opinion that the measles, mumps, rubella (German measles) vaccine injected into the arms of children caused inflammation, leading to harmful chemicals entering the bloodstream through the gut (intestine). These factors, he said, traveled to the brain, where the harmful chemicals/toxins caused autism. In the face of this “fake news” about the source of autism and measles, the vaccination rate for measles dropped in the United Kingdom and Ireland.

scholarly journals Constructive basis for the development of the extreme zones of Siberia and the Russian arctic

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2.13) ◽  
pp. 75
Author(s):  
Tat'yana Sarvut
Keyword(s):  
Structural Changes ◽  
Irreversible Process ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Russian Arctic ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
New Approach ◽  
The World ◽  
The Face ◽  
New Type

The paper describes the constructive basis for building and structure designing in the difficult regions of Siberia and the Russian Arctic and development of a new approach to the design of buildings and structures in the Russian Arctic in the face of climate change. Severe climate and weather conditions of the northwestern territories of Russia are rapidly changing due to the global warming. The structural changes in development and construction, following this irreversible process, are highlighted and discussed in relation to the foundations and constructive systems. The paper provides an overview of methods and technological approaches to the extreme zone construction. The application of modern methods of design and construction with the involvement of competent "practitioners" increases the pace of construction and reduces its cost; Architectural and constructive solutions should focus on the developing areas of business and tourism. We suggest the possible protective measures against the transgression of the World Ocean and thawing of the permafrost. The term “special Arctic bases”, denoting the new type of settlements in the Russian Arctic, is introduced. The introduction of constructive solutions and the development of planning solutions for the bases will help to ensure a stable activity in the region.  

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document