The Future Ambiguity Effect: How Narrow Payoff Ranges Increase Future Payoff Appeal

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (8) ◽  
pp. 3754-3770
Author(s):  
Yuanyuan Liu ◽  
Timothy B. Heath ◽  
Ayse Onculer
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Condition ◽  
Psychological Distance ◽  
Emergent Property ◽  
Judgment And Decision Making ◽  
Choice Sets ◽  
The Future ◽  
One Year ◽  
Ambiguity Effect ◽  
Underlying Processes ◽  
A Current

Increasing a current payoff’s ambiguity from a precise value (e.g., $150) to a range (e.g., $140–$160) generally reduces the payoff’s appeal, as does delaying the payoff from, for example, now to one year from now. However, we report five studies in which adding small ranges to future payoffs increases future payoff appeal, an emergent property designated the future ambiguity effect. This effect generalizes across various choice sets, payoff levels, and delays, and it prevails even when a future smaller ambiguous payoff is preferred more than a future larger precise payoff. Two underlying processes are proposed and supported: (1) the payoff ambiguity’s explicit risk of receiving a smaller payoff distracts people from the future’s larger implicit risk of receiving nothing, and (2) payoff ambiguity restores some of the excitement lost to the future’s psychological distance. Nonetheless, the future ambiguity effect is not universal, given that larger ranges can reduce and even eliminate it (boundary condition). This paper was accepted by Yuval Rottenstreich, judgment and decision making.

Post-Soviet economy development: From the past to the future

2017 ◽  
pp. 5-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Yasin
Keyword(s):  
Present Situation ◽  
Soviet Economy ◽  
Market Reforms ◽  
Democratic Development ◽  
The Past ◽  
Current Period ◽  
The Future ◽  
History Of ◽  
Working Out ◽  
A Current

The article is devoted to major events in the history of the post-Soviet economy, their influence on forming and development of modern Russia. The author considers stages of restructuring, market reforms, transformational crisis, and recovery growth (1999-2011), as well as a current period which started in2011 and is experiencing serious problems. The present situation is analyzed, four possible scenarios are put forward for Russia: “inertia”, “mobilization”, “decisive leap”, “gradual democratic development”. More than 30 experts were questioned in the process of working out the scenarios.

An archaeological analysis to trace the emergence and transformation of qualified physical education teachers in Singapore primary schools

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 69-84
Author(s):  
Ho Jin Chung ◽  
Muhammad Sufri ◽  
Chee Keng John Wang
Keyword(s):  
Physical Education ◽  
Primary Schools ◽  
Physical Education Teachers ◽  
National Archives ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Status ◽  
Archaeology Of Knowledge ◽  
Archaeological Analysis ◽  
Key Events ◽  
Underlying Processes

This study explored the underlying processes associated with the policy of increasing qualified physical education teachers (QPETs) in Singapore primary schools. Data were collected from the National Archives of Singapore, Newslink, NewpaperSG and documents. An ‘archaeological analysis’ by Foucault (1972) was used to trace the discursive conditions which enabled and facilitated the policy. Three distinct elements were borrowed from ‘The Archaeology of Knowledge and the Discourse on Language’, namely: the status – as reflected in the positions of individuals influencing the PE policies and initiatives; the institutional sites – as in the locations of the decisions being exercised, and; the situation – identified by the key events leading to the decision to increase QPETs in primary schools. The conclusions based on the analysis of these elements offer a clearer understanding of the various contributions to the adoption of the policy and serve to provide an insightful lens to policymakers who might seek to redesign the future shape of Physical Education.

Use of an optical surface scanner in assessment of outcome following rhinoplasty surgery

2008 ◽  
Vol 122 (9) ◽  
pp. 972-977 ◽  
Author(s):  
H Chau ◽  
R Dasgupta ◽  
V Sauret ◽  
G Kenyon
Keyword(s):  
Surgical Intervention ◽  
University Hospital ◽  
Facial Features ◽  
Optical Surface ◽  
Case Study Analysis ◽  
The Future ◽  
University College London ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Right

AbstractObjective:To demonstrate the use of an optical surface scanner, with associated software, in the assessment of rhinoplasty patients, and to discuss the possible clinical applications of this technology in the future.Design:Case study analysis of pre- and post-operative scans of a patient undergoing septorhinoplasty at Whipps Cross University Hospital, London, UK.Subject:A 21-year-old man undergoing septorhinoplasty underwent pre-operative optical surface scanning of his face. The scans were repeated at one week and one year post-operatively. Software developed at University College London was then used to analyse the scans.Results:The scans clearly showed that the man's dorsal hump had been well reduced and the nose straightened, with a resulting 1600 mm3 gain on the right side and a 1000 mm3 loss on the left side of the nose. Tip projection had also been achieved.Conclusion:This technique allowed objective quantification of facial features and analysis of change. It may well prove useful in the future in predicting change following surgical intervention.

scholarly journals Shifting Gears: The Future of Polymyxin Antibiotics

Antibiotics ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lenhard ◽  
Bulman ◽  
Tsuji ◽  
Kaye
Keyword(s):  
Treatment Options ◽  
Multidrug Resistant ◽  
Drug Resistant ◽  
Carbapenem Resistant ◽  
The Future ◽  
Important Addition ◽  
Future Strategy ◽  
Future Utility ◽  
A Current

The manuscripts contained in this special edition of Antibiotics represent a current review of the polymyxins as well as highlights from the 3rd International Polymyxin Conference, which was held in Madrid, Spain, April 25 to 26, 2018. The role of the polymyxin antibiotics has evolved over time based on the availability of alternative agents. After high rates of nephrotoxicity caused the drug class to fall out of favor, polymyxins were once against utilized in the 21st century to combat drug-resistant pathogens. However, the introduction of safer agents with activity against drug-resistant organisms has brought the future utility of polymyxins into question. The present review investigates the future niche of polymyxins by evaluating currently available and future treatment options for difficult-to-treat pathogens. The introduction of ceftazidime-avibactam, meropenem-vaborbactam and plazomicin are likely to decrease polymyxin utilization for infections caused by Enterobacteriaceae. Similarly, the availability of ceftolozane-tazobactam will reduce the use of polymyxins to counter multidrug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa. In contrast, polymyxins will likely continue be an important option for combatting carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii until better options become commercially available. Measuring polymyxin concentrations in patients and individualizing therapy may be a future strategy to optimize clinical outcomes while minimizing nephrotoxicity. Inhaled polymyxins will continue to be an adjunctive option for pulmonary infections but further clinical trials are needed to clarify the efficacy of inhaled polymyxins. Lastly, safer polymyxin analogs will potentially be an important addition to the antimicrobial armamentarium.

scholarly journals Unravelling the Photoprotective Mechanisms of Nature-Inspired Ultraviolet Filters Using Ultrafast Spectroscopy

Molecules ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (17) ◽  
pp. 3945
Author(s):  
Temitope T. Abiola ◽  
Abigail L. Whittock ◽  
Vasilios G. Stavros
Keyword(s):  
Uv Radiation ◽  
Computational Methods ◽  
Ultrafast Spectroscopy ◽  
Relaxation Mechanism ◽  
Research Interest ◽  
Uv Filters ◽  
Future Design ◽  
The Future ◽  
Current Research Interest ◽  
A Current

There are several drawbacks with the current commercially available ultraviolet (UV) filters used in sunscreen formulations, namely deleterious human and ecotoxic effects. As a result of the drawbacks, a current research interest is in identifying and designing new UV filters. One approach that has been explored in recent years is to use nature as inspiration, which is the focus of this review. Both plants and microorganisms have adapted to synthesize their own photoprotective molecules to guard their DNA from potentially harmful UV radiation. The relaxation mechanism of a molecule after it has been photoexcited can be unravelled by several techniques, the ones of most interest for this review being ultrafast spectroscopy and computational methods. Within the literature, both techniques have been implemented on plant-, and microbial-inspired UV filters to better understand their photoprotective roles in nature. This review aims to explore these findings for both families of nature-inspired UV filters in the hope of guiding the future design of sunscreens.

One Year Later: A Great Debate in Israel

Worldview ◽  
1974 ◽  
Vol 17 (10) ◽  
pp. 34-40
Author(s):  
Barry Rubin
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Arab World ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Great Debate ◽  
Newspaper Editor ◽  
The Future ◽  
One Year ◽  
Democratic Life ◽  
Palestinian Question ◽  
Political Settlement

The debate now going on in Israel over government policies, attitudes toward a political settlement, and the Palestinian question is bound to have an important effect on the future of Israel and on the Arab-Israeli conflict in general. It is politically important to understand that there has been a tendency within some Arab circles to mistake Israel's situation. The Arabs have understandably come to value unity very highly, although they have so often found it elusive, and they therefore view the deep splits in Israeli politics as a sign of weakness. After all, even in Beirut—the freest city for ideas in the Arab world—a newspaper editor was indicted on charges of attacking the King of Saudi Arabia and another kidnapped for displeasing a political faction. But Israelis view their disagreements in print and in parliament (the Knesset) as a sign of nealthy democratic life and a welcome change from the stifling consensus of the Meir years.

Joint venture survival in China: the importance of tangible and intangible trust

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 173-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bradley James Koch ◽  
Pamela L.T. Koch
Keyword(s):  
Trust Management ◽  
Joint Venture ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Performance Measure ◽  
Management Control ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
A Current

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship among joint venture survival in Sichuan and two types of trust: intangible trust and tangible trust. Intangible trust encapsulates the internal affective aspects of trust, whereas tangible trust captures the external and more easily visible willingness to commit resources to the partnership. Design/methodology/approach The primary data used in this research are based on surveys conducted in 2002-2003 of 274 foreign invested firms in Sichuan province and are from a follow-up investigation of firm survival in 2009. Findings The results show that both intangible trust and tangible trust are significant in predicting survival in joint ventures seven years into the future. In addition, the authors explore determinates of intangible and tangible trust. Management control had no impact on intangible trust, but it had a significant positive impact on tangible trust via the presence of a foreign general manager. Cultural distance had the expected negative effect on intangible trust, but an unanticipated positive influence on tangible trust. Originality/value The main contribution of this research is establishing a link between measures of trust taken in 2002 with a performance measure from 2009. Trust today, whether it is tangible or intangible, predicts performance in the future. The majority of prior research linked a current measure of trust with a current measure of performance, which blurs the trust and performance relationship, as it is likely that the relationship is reciprocal and higher levels of trust may be the result of good performance just as much as good performance is a result of higher levels of trust.

Managing Conflict and Resistance to Change in a Minor Hockey System

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (S1) ◽  
pp. S15-S20
Author(s):  
Daniel Wigfield ◽  
Ryan Snelgrove
Keyword(s):  
Resistance To Change ◽  
Development Program ◽  
Intergroup Conflict ◽  
Spatial Awareness ◽  
Sport Organizations ◽  
Entry Level ◽  
The Future ◽  
Foundational Skills ◽  
One Year ◽  
A Minor

In March 2017, responding to a pressure to improve athlete development and enjoyment, Hockey Canada moved to change how youth are introduced to hockey by mandating the implementation of a cross-ice development program for its entry-level participants. The mandate of cross-ice programming was to ensure that all 75,000 entry-level participants received increased touches of the puck on an appropriately sized playing surface; thus, heightening their spatial awareness and foundational skills necessary to enjoyably move forward in hockey. As is common for many sport organizations, the proposed programming changes were met with resistance by some stakeholders. Surprisingly, the resistance to the programming changes evolved into a much-publicized intergroup conflict within Hockey Canada’s largest market. The dispute could not be resolved in time for the beginning of the 2017–2018 season. As a result, the defiant local leagues were granted a one-year reprieve from implementing cross-ice programming. With only a one-year reprieve granted, Hockey Canada must now determine the appropriate steps to fully implement their desired programming change and ensure that resistance-based conflicts are limited in the future.

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