scholarly journals Universal risk phenotype of US counties for flu-like transmission to improve county-specific COVID-19 incidence forecasts

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (10) ◽  
pp. e1009363
Author(s):  
Yi Huang ◽  
Ishanu Chattopadhyay
Keyword(s):  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Risk Process ◽  
Host Population ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Incidence Trends ◽  
Transmission Mechanisms ◽  
Case Count ◽  
Us Counties

The spread of a communicable disease is a complex spatio-temporal process shaped by the specific transmission mechanism, and diverse factors including the behavior, socio-economic and demographic properties of the host population. While the key factors shaping transmission of influenza and COVID-19 are beginning to be broadly understood, making precise forecasts on case count and mortality is still difficult. In this study we introduce the concept of a universal geospatial risk phenotype of individual US counties facilitating flu-like transmission mechanisms. We call this the Universal Influenza-like Transmission (UnIT) score, which is computed as an information-theoretic divergence of the local incidence time series from an high-risk process of epidemic initiation, inferred from almost a decade of flu season incidence data gleaned from the diagnostic history of nearly a third of the US population. Despite being computed from the past seasonal flu incidence records, the UnIT score emerges as the dominant factor explaining incidence trends for the COVID-19 pandemic over putative demographic and socio-economic factors. The predictive ability of the UnIT score is further demonstrated via county-specific weekly case count forecasts which consistently outperform the state of the art models throughout the time-line of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study demonstrates that knowledge of past epidemics may be used to chart the course of future ones, if transmission mechanisms are broadly similar, despite distinct disease processes and causative pathogens.

scholarly journals Universal Risk Phenotype Of US Counties For Flu-like Transmission To Improve County-specific COVID-19 Incidence Forecasts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ishanu Chattopadhyay ◽  
Yi Huang
Keyword(s):  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Risk Measure ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Population Characteristics ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Incidence Trends ◽  
Transmission Mechanisms ◽  
Spatial Risk ◽  
Case Count ◽  
Us Counties

Abstract The spread of a communicable disease is a complex spatio-temporal process shaped by the specific transmission mechanism, the survivability of the pathogen outside the host under harsh environmental conditions, and access to new viable hosts broadly determined by the local population characteristics, and its compliance to social distancing policies. While the key factors shaping transmission of influenza and COVID-19 are beginning to be broadly understood, making precise forecasts on case count and mortality is still difficult. Despite a diversity of approaches being used to model the COVID-19 pandemic, a single best model is yet to coalesce. In this study we introduce the concept of a universal geo-spatial risk measure, denoted as the Universal Influenza-like Transmission (UnIT) score, to quantify the risk phenotype of US counties facilitating flu-like transmission mechanisms. The UnIT score is computed as a purely information-theoretic function of past incidence data for seasonal flu epidemics, yet emerges as the dominant factor explaining observed county-specific incidence trends over a range of putative demographic and socio-economic factors for the COV-19 pandemic. The predictive ability of the UnIT score is further demonstrated via county-specific weekly case count forecasts which consistently outperform the best models in the current literature. This study demonstrates that knowledge of past epidemics may be used to chart the course of future ones, if transmission mechanisms are broadly similar, despite distinct disease processes and causative pathogens.

Vulvar cancer in Germany: Increase of incidence and change of tumor-biological characteristics in the period 1974-2013.

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e17031-e17031
Author(s):  
Jana Barinoff ◽  
Jalid Sehouli ◽  
Bernd Holleczek
Keyword(s):  
Squamous Cell ◽  
Vulvar Cancer ◽  
Advanced Disease ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Tumor Characteristics ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Incidence Trends ◽  
The Past ◽  
Icd 10

e17031 Background: Incidence of vulvar cancer in Germany is increasing. Gynecological oncologists reported to observe increasing numbers of women presenting with small tumors. The aim of the presented study is to validate this observation on a population level and to extend available incidence data. Methods: Data from the population-based Saarland Cancer Registry (CR) were used and included 1,136 female patients diagnosed with invasive vulvar cancer (ICD-10 code: C51) between 1974 and 2013. Multiple imputation methodology was used to overcome loss of precision and potential bias. Incidence trends were investigated with regard to patient and tumor characteristics. Results: During the study period, the age standardized rate of incidence increased from 1.6 to 7.9 cases per 100,000 women per year (+390%). Since 1989, the incidence of squamous cell carcinoma increased from 1.7 to 7.1 (+320%), whereas no increase was observed in other morphologic types. Simultaneously, the incidence of small vulvar tumors <= 2 cm (T1) increased from 0.8 in 1989-93 to 6.6 in 2009-13 (the proportion of T1 tumors increased from 34% to 79%, respectively). Patients aged >= 75 years suffered from more advanced disease at the time of diagnosis. Conclusions: The detailed analyses revealed that the observed increase in vulvar cancer in the past 15 years mainly resulted from newly incident squamous cell carcinomas. Furthermore, the analyses showed an almost exclusive increase of T1 tumors. An increase in vulvar cancer incidence as shown for Germany could not be observed for any other European country.

scholarly journals Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicole Nova ◽  
Ethan R. Deyle ◽  
Marta S. Shocket ◽  
Andrew J. MacDonald ◽  
Marissa L. Childs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Host Population ◽  
Interactive Effects ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Susceptible Host ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Dengue Transmission

AbstractExperiments and models suggest that climate affects mosquito-borne disease transmission. However, disease transmission involves complex nonlinear interactions between climate and population dynamics, which makes detecting climate drivers at the population level challenging. By analyzing incidence data, estimated susceptible population size, and climate data with methods based on nonlinear time series analysis (collectively referred to as empirical dynamic modeling), we identified drivers and their interactive effects on dengue dynamics in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Climatic forcing arose only when susceptible availability was high: temperature and rainfall had net positive and negative effects, respectively. By capturing mechanistic, nonlinear, and context-dependent effects of population susceptibility, temperature, and rainfall on dengue transmission empirically, our model improves forecast skill over recent, state-of-the-art models for dengue incidence. Together, these results provide empirical evidence that the interdependence of host population susceptibility and climate drive dengue dynamics in a nonlinear and complex, yet predictable way.

scholarly journals Epidemiology of surgery in a protracted humanitarian setting: a 20-year retrospective study of Nyarugusu Refugee Camp, Kigoma, Western Tanzania

BMC Surgery ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Rapaport ◽  
Hilary Ngude ◽  
Amber Lekey ◽  
Mohamed Abbas ◽  
Peter J. Winch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Host Population ◽  
Health Needs ◽  
Refugee Camps ◽  
Surgical Services ◽  
Procedural Volume ◽  
Consistent Increase ◽  
Humanitarian Setting ◽  
Non Communicable Disease

Abstract Background There are 80 million forcibly displaced persons worldwide, 26.3 million of whom are refugees. Many refugees live in camps and have complex health needs, including a high burden of non-communicable disease. It is estimated that 3 million procedures are needed for refugees worldwide, yet very few studies exist on surgery in refugee camps, particularly protracted refugee settings. This study utilizes a 20-year dataset, the longest dataset of surgery in a refugee setting to be published to date, to assess surgical output in a setting of protracted displacement. Methods A retrospective review of surgeries performed in Nyarugusu Camp was conducted using paper logbooks containing entries between November 2000 and September 2020 inclusive. Abstracted data were digitized into standard electronic form and included date, patient nationality, sex, age, indication, procedure performed, and anesthesia used. A second reviewer checked 10% of entries for accuracy. Entries illegible to both reviewers were excluded. Demographics, indication for surgery, procedures performed, and type of anesthesia were standardized for descriptive analysis, which was performed in STATA. Results There were 10,799 operations performed over the 20-year period. Tanzanians underwent a quarter of the operations while refugees underwent the remaining 75%. Ninety percent of patients were female and 88% were 18 years of age or older. Caesarean sections were the most common performed procedure followed by herniorrhaphies, tubal ligations, exploratory laparotomies, hysterectomies, appendectomies, and repairs. The most common indications for laparotomy procedures were ectopic pregnancy, uterine rupture, and acute abdomen. Spinal anesthesia was the most common anesthesia type used. Although there was a consistent increase in procedural volume over the study period, this is largely explained by an increase in overall camp population and an increase in caesarean sections rather than increases in other, specific surgical procedures. Conclusion There is significant surgical volume in Nyarugusu Camp, performed by staff physicians and visiting surgeons. Both refugees and the host population utilize these surgical services. This work provides context to the surgical training these settings require, but further study is needed to assess the burden of surgical disease and the extent to which it is met in this setting and others.

scholarly journals Incidence of myeloid neoplasms in Spain (2002–2013): a population-based study of the Spanish network of cancer registries

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Solans ◽  
Arantza Sanvisens ◽  
Alberto Ameijide ◽  
Susana Merino ◽  
Dolores Rojas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myeloproliferative Neoplasms ◽  
Cancer Registries ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Incidence Trends ◽  
Myeloid Neoplasms ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Hematological Cancers ◽  
Public Health Authorities

AbstractComprehensive population-based data on myeloid neoplasms (MNs) are limited, mainly because some subtypes were not recognized as hematological cancers prior to the WHO publication in 2001, and others are too rare to allow robust estimates within regional studies. Herein, we provide incidence data of the whole spectrum of MNs in Spain during 2002–2013 using harmonized data from 13 population-based cancer registries. Cases (n = 17,522) were grouped following the HAEMACARE groupings and 2013-European standardized incidence rates (ASRE), incidence trends, and estimates for 2021 were calculated. ASRE per 100,000 inhabitants was 5.14 (95% CI: 5.00–5.27) for myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN), 4.71 (95% CI: 4.59–4.84) for myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), 3.91 (95% CI: 3.79–4.02) for acute myeloid leukemia, 0.83 (95% CI: 0.78–0.88) for MDS/MPN, 0.35 (95% CI: 0.32–0.39) for acute leukemia of ambiguous lineage, and 0.58 (95% CI: 0.53–0.62) for not-otherwise specified (NOS) cases. This study highlights some useful points for public health authorities, such as the remarkable variability in incidence rates among Spanish provinces, the increasing incidence of MPN, MDS, and MDS/MPN during the period of study, in contrast to a drop in NOS cases, and the number of cases expected in 2021 based on these data (8446 new MNs).

scholarly journals The Heterogenous Effect of COVID-19 on Liver Transplantation Activity and Waitlist Mortality in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing Yuan ◽  
Omar Haque ◽  
Taylor M. Coe ◽  
James F. Markmann
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
Liver Transplantation ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
New York Times ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Case Count ◽  
Waitlist Mortality

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic curtailed the practice of liver transplantation (LT), which lacks a temporizing life-saving measure for candidates on the waitlist.Aims/Objectives: The objective of this research was to (1) determine the effect of decreased LT activity on waitlist mortality in the United States and (2) assess if this effect was homogenous across the country.Methods: We conducted a retrospective, cross-sectional analysis utilizing United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) data assessing 3,600 liver transplants from January 1, 2020 to June 2, 2020. COVID-19 incidence data was taken directly from the New York Times case count.Results: During weeks 10 to 15 of 2020, there was a 38% reduction in the number of LTs performed nationally, which was temporally associated with a transient 97% increase in waitlist mortality. When stratified by UNOS region, waitlist mortality was inversely correlated with the number of LTs performed in all 11 regions. However, the range of the association strength (r) was large (Pearson correlation coefficient range: −0.73 to −0.01).Conclusion: Interruptions in LT activity due to COVID-19 were associated with rapid increases in waitlist mortality, and these effects were unevenly distributed among candidates across the United States. The transplant community can utilize these results to mitigate inequalities in transplant allocation between UNOS regions and advocate for the uninterrupted practice of LT should another pandemic surge or COVID-19 variant arise.

scholarly journals Delivering a primary-level non-communicable disease programme for Syrian refugees and the host population in Jordan: a descriptive costing study

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (8) ◽  
pp. 931-940
Author(s):  
Éimhín Ansbro ◽  
Sylvia Garry ◽  
Veena Karir ◽  
Amulya Reddy ◽  
Kiran Jobanputra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Care Delivery ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Host Population ◽  
Syrian Refugees ◽  
Task Sharing ◽  
Primary Level ◽  
Costing Study ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Non Communicable Disease

Abstract The Syrian conflict has caused enormous displacement of a population with a high non-communicable disease (NCD) burden into surrounding countries, overwhelming health systems’ NCD care capacity. Médecins sans Frontières (MSF) developed a primary-level NCD programme, serving Syrian refugees and the host population in Irbid, Jordan, to assist the response. Cost data, which are currently lacking, may support programme adaptation and system scale up of such NCD services. This descriptive costing study from the provider perspective explored financial costs of the MSF NCD programme. We estimated annual total, per patient and per consultation costs for 2015–17 using a combined ingredients-based and step-down allocation approach. Data were collected via programme budgets, facility records, direct observation and informal interviews. Scenario analyses explored the impact of varying procurement processes, consultation frequency and task sharing. Total annual programme cost ranged from 4 to 6 million International Dollars (INT$), increasing annually from INT$4 206 481 (2015) to INT$6 739 438 (2017), with costs driven mainly by human resources and drugs. Per patient per year cost increased 23% from INT$1424 (2015) to 1751 (2016), and by 9% to 1904 (2017), while cost per consultation increased from INT$209 to 253 (2015–17). Annual cost increases reflected growing patient load and increasing service complexity throughout 2015–17. A scenario importing all medications cut total costs by 31%, while negotiating importation of high-cost items offered 13% savings. Leveraging pooled procurement for local purchasing could save 20%. Staff costs were more sensitive to reducing clinical review frequency than to task sharing review to nurses. Over 1000 extra patients could be enrolled without additional staffing cost if care delivery was restructured. Total costs significantly exceeded costs reported for NCD care in low-income humanitarian contexts. Efficiencies gained by revising procurement and/or restructuring consultation models could confer cost savings or facilitate cohort expansion. Cost effectiveness studies of adapted models are recommended.

scholarly journals Estimated and Observed Cancer Incidence in Italy: A Validation Study

2007 ◽  
Vol 93 (4) ◽  
pp. 387-391 ◽  
Author(s):  
Riccardo Capocaccia ◽  
Carlotta Buzzoni ◽  
Enrico Grande ◽  
Riccardo Inghelmann ◽  
Francesco Bellù ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cancer Registries ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Italian Population ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Crude Incidence ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Incidence Trends ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Italian Regions

Aims and background The study aimed to validate model-based incidence estimates by means of observed incidence rates provided by Italian cancer registries, for five major cancer sites (stomach, colon and rectum, lung, breast and prostate cancers) and for all cancers together. Methods Recent incidence rates observed by Italian population-based cancer registries were extracted from the data base of the Italian Association of Cancer Registries. Regional estimates of incidence rates for the same cancers were obtained by the MIAMOD method. Observed and estimated crude incidence rates and incidence trends were compared for the period of diagnosis 1985-2000. Eight Italian cancer registries and seven regions were selected for the analysis since they had incidence data available during the entire selected period. Results and conclusions An excellent agreement between estimated and observed crude incidence rates was found for all single cancer sites, regarding absolute incidence levels and time trends. A partial exception was breast, where empirical data showed a sudden increase in the last three years of observation, perhaps due to organized screenings in some Italian regions, and not captured by statistical models. Substantial underestimation of model-based incidence rates was found for all cancers combined, where the difference tended to increase with calendar year, up to a maximum of 20% in recent years. The greatest part of the discrepancy can be attributed to multiple cancers, which were included in cancer registries statistics but were not accounted for in MIAMOD estimates.

DETERMINAN OF ADOLESCENT SMOKING BEHAVIOR IN PONTIANAK CITY

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-98
Author(s):  
Abduh Ridha ◽  
Andri Dwi Hernawan
Keyword(s):  
High School ◽  
High School Students ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Smoking Behavior ◽  
Adolescent Smoking ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
School Students ◽  
Cigarette Advertising

Non-communicable diseases cause 60% of deaths in Indonesia. Non-communicable disease risk groups getting younger. One reason is the age of new smokers become younger from year to year. School proved to be an effective setting for smoking reduction program in adolescents group. Schools is one of Free Smoking Area that regulated by the Government of Pontianak by Perda 10 tahun 2010. The main objective of this research is develop a model of relationship between health education, the influence of interpersonal (family and friends), advertising exposure, and knowledge with smoking cessation among high school students in Pontianak. The study was designed with cross-sectional. The study was conducted on high school students in Pontianak, West Kalimantan, in the period May 2013-April 2014. Data were analyzed by multivariate analysis using logistic regression to get the model. From multivariable analysis is known if the teens which have a family of smokers, smoker friends, exposure to cigarette advertising in the high category, has a habit of watching tv on mid night as well as having the knowledge that it has a low probability of smoking behavior by 99.3%. Based on the same formula, of the five factors that influence smoking behavior variables knowledge is the dominant factor. Cigarette advertising is the smallest triger. Model of adolescent smoking behavior of high school in Pontianak is mathematically capable of predicting the behavior of smoking to 99.3%, with the calibration of 0939 and 0777 amounted to discrimination.

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