scholarly journals Private-Public Opinion Discrepancy

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. e0242148
Author(s):  
Ren Manfredi ◽  
Andrea Guazzini ◽  
Carla Anne Roos ◽  
Tom Postmes ◽  
Namkje Koudenburg
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Good Representation ◽  
Social Psychological ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Good Reputation ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Over Time

In many Western societies there are rising concerns about increasing polarization in public debate. However, statistics on private attitudes paint a different picture: the average attitudes in societies are more moderate and remain rather stable over time. The present paper presents an agent-based model of how such discrepancies between public opinion and private attitudes develop at the scale of micro-societies. Based on social psychological theorizing, the model distinguishes between two types of agents: a) those seeking to gain or maintain a good reputation and status, and b) those seeking to promote group harmony by reaching consensus. We characterized these different types of agents by different decision rules for either voicing their opinion or remaining silent, based on the behavior of their proximal network. Results of the model simulations show that even when the private attitudes of the agents are held constant, publicly expressed opinions can oscillate and (depending on the reputational concerns of individual actors) situations can occur in which minorities as well as majorities are silenced. We conclude that the macro-level consequences of micro-level decisions to either voice an opinion or remain silent provide a foundation for better understanding how public opinions are shaped. Moreover, we discuss the conditions under which public opinion could be considered a good representation of private attitudes in a society.

Engaging with Public Opinion at the Micro-Level: Citizen Dialogue and Participation in German Foreign Policy

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Opitz ◽  
Hanna Pfeifer ◽  
Anna Geis
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
German Foreign Policy ◽  
Minor Importance ◽  
Foreign Office ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Auswärtiges Amt ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Western Democracies

Abstract This article analyzes how and why foreign policy (FP)-makers use dialogue and participation processes (DPPs) with (groups of) individual citizens as a source of public opinion. Taking Germany as a case study and drawing on DPP initiatives by the Federal Foreign Office (Auswärtiges Amt, AA) since 2014, we analyze the officials’ motivation for establishing such processes and find four different sets of motivation: (1) image campaigning, (2) educating citizens, (3) listening to citizens, and (4) changing the citizens’ role in FP. Our article makes three contributions. First, we provide a novel typology of the sources of public opinion upon which FP-makers can draw. Second, our study points to the importance of, and provides a framework for, analyzing how officials engage with public opinion at the micro-level, which has so far been understudied in FP analysis. Finally, our empirical analysis suggests that both carefully assessing and influencing public opinion feature prominently in motivation, whereas PR purposes are of minor importance. Recasting the citizens’ role in FP gains in importance over time and may mirror the increased need to legitimize FP in Western democracies vis-à-vis their publics.

A CONNECTIONIST ABM OF SOCIAL CATEGORIZATION PROCESSES

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (06) ◽  
pp. 1250077 ◽  
Author(s):  
DIRK VAN ROOY
Keyword(s):  
Social Influence ◽  
Network Structure ◽  
Social Adaptation ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Extensive Research Program ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Over Time

This paper introduces a connectionist Agent-Based Model (cABM) that incorporates detailed, micro-level understanding of social influence processes derived from laboratory studies and that aims to contextualize these processes in such a way that it becomes possible to model multidirectional, dynamic influences in extended social networks. At the micro-level, agent processes are simulated by recurrent auto-associative networks, an architecture that has a proven ability to simulate a variety of individual psychological and memory processes [D. Van Rooy, F. Van Overwalle, T. Vanhoomissen, C. Labiouse and R. French, Psychol. Rev. 110, 536 (2003)]. At the macro-level, these individual networks are combined into a "community of networks" so that they can exchange their individual information with each other by transmitting information on the same concepts from one net to another. This essentially creates a network structure that reflects a social system in which (a collection of) nodes represent individual agents and the links between agents the mutual social influences that connect them [B. Hazlehurst, and E. Hutchins, Lang. Cogn. Process. 13, 373 (1998)]. The network structure itself is dynamic and shaped by the interactions between the individual agents through simple processes of social adaptation. Through simulations, the cABM generates a number of novel predictions that broadly address three main issues: (1) the consequences of the interaction between multiple sources and targets of social influence (2) the dynamic development of social influence over time and (3) collective and individual opinion trajectories over time. Some of the predictions regarding individual level processes have been tested and confirmed in laboratory experiments. In a extensive research program, data is currently being collected from real groups that will allow validating the predictions of cABM regarding aggregate outcomes.

scholarly journals Towards Spatially Explicit Agent-based Model for Simulation of Informal Transport Infrastructure Indirect Growth Dynamic in Informal Settlements

2014 ◽  
Vol XL-2/W3 ◽  
pp. 273-279
Author(s):  
H. Vahidi ◽  
W. Yan
Keyword(s):  
Informal Settlement ◽  
Informal Settlements ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Construction Process ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Growth Phenomenon ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Settlement Growth

The informal construction of dwellings (housing) and the informal growth of transport infrastructure are two main dynamics of an informal settlement growth phenomenon that may influence each other over time. Some studies have been done to understand the growth mechanisms of informal settlements, but not enough attention has been paid to study the informal growth of transport infrastructure dynamic. In this study, the morphology and spatial pattern of different types of informal settlements have been reviewed and categorized to clearly define and formulate the mechanisms of informal transport infrastructure formation in the context of informal settlement. To this end, two different dynamics have been suggested in this study for modelling of the growth of informal transport infrastructure. In the first suggested dynamic, the infrastructure is extended directly as the result of consolidation of the physical signs of dwellers’ movement (foot prints) on the environment over time. In the second proposed dynamic that is the main focus of this study, the informal infrastructure growth could be considered as the function of dwelling construction (housing) dynamic in the settlement. In this context, informal transport infrastructure is extended based on an indirect dynamic by consideration of the void spaces by dwellers as the accessibility corridors in the settlement during the construction process of the settlement. Finally, to study the validity of the second proposed dynamic for modelling of the indirect growth of informal transport infrastructure, a simple conceptual model was developed and tested and the results were evaluated and discussed.

Are We Preaching to the Same Choir? A Mixed-Methods Comparison of Audiences at Animal-Themed Interpretive Facilities

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 5-29
Author(s):  
Susan Caplow
Keyword(s):  
Free Choice ◽  
Environmental Behavior ◽  
Institutional Mission ◽  
Social Psychological ◽  
Program Outcomes ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Free Choice Learning ◽  
Value Belief Norm Theory ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Time Animal

Interpretive programs can encourage the development of pro-environmental behavior, but visitors do not arrive as blank slates. Instead, their previous experiences interact with new programs to produce iterative change over time. Animal ambassadors can help facilitate these changes, but animal specialty organizations have largely been excluded from research exploring audiences and programs in free-choice learning settings. This study fills that gap by exploring differences between audiences at organizations with different types of missions. Using survey and interview data and value-belief-norm theory as a framework, I compare learners across three animal-themed interpretive facilities. Visitors were similar on some sociodemographic/social-psychological metrics, but they also differed in ways that reflect the institutional mission at each organization. Most notably, specialty organizations reach audiences who are sensitive to animal/ environmental welfare but are uncomfortable with zoos. Interpreters can replicate these methods at their own organizations or consider how the visitors in this study can help them better understand their own context. More knowledge about their visitors helps interpreters better design programs to achieve desired program outcomes and facilitate pro-environmental behavior.

Measuring Agency Change Across the Domain of Hypnosis

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vince Polito ◽  
Amanda Barnier ◽  
Erik Woody
Keyword(s):  
Rating Scale ◽  
Sense Of Agency ◽  
Pass Rates ◽  
Current Experiment ◽  
Multidimensional Construct ◽  
Time Points ◽  
Hypnotic Induction ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Postexperimental Inquiry

Building on Hilgard’s (1965) classic work, the domain of hypnosis has been conceptualised by Barnier, Dienes, and Mitchell (2008) as comprising three levels: (1) classic hypnotic items, (2) responding between and within items, and (3) state and trait. The current experiment investigates sense of agency across each of these three levels. Forty-six high hypnotisable participants completed an ideomotor (arm levitation), a challenge (arm rigidity) and a cognitive (anosmia) item either following a hypnotic induction (hypnosis condition) or without a hypnotic induction (wake condition). In a postexperimental inquiry, participants rated their feelings of control at three time points for each item: during the suggestion, test and cancellation phases. They also completed the Sense of Agency Rating Scale (Polito, Barnier, & Woody, 2013) for each item. Pass rates, control ratings, and agency scores fluctuated across the different types of items and for the three phases of each item; also, control ratings and agency scores often differed across participants who passed versus failed each item. Interestingly, whereas a hypnotic induction influenced the likelihood of passing items, it had no direct effect on agentive experiences. These results suggest that altered sense of agency is not a unidimensional or static quality “switched on” by hypnotic induction, but a dynamic multidimensional construct that varies across items, over time and according to whether individuals pass or fail suggestions.

In or Out?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catherine E. De Vries
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Alternative State ◽  
Empirical Measurement ◽  
The Status ◽  
People’S Attitudes ◽  
Over Time ◽  
The Eu

This chapter introduces a benchmark theory of public opinion towards European integration. Rather than relying on generic labels like support or scepticism, the chapter suggests that public opinion towards the EU is both multidimensional and multilevel in nature. People’s attitudes towards Europe are essentially based on a comparison between the benefits of the status quo of membership and those associated with an alternative state, namely one’s country being outside the EU. This comparison is coined the ‘EU differential’. When comparing these benefits, people rely on both their evaluations of the outcomes (policy evaluations) and the system that produces them (regime evaluations). This chapter presents a fine-grained conceptualization of what it means to be an EU supporter or Eurosceptic; it also designs a careful empirical measurement strategy to capture variation, both cross-nationally and over time. The chapter cross-validates these measures against a variety of existing and newly developed data sources.

Imagery in the Book of Revelation

2020 ◽  
pp. 52-67
Author(s):  
Konrad Huber
Keyword(s):  
Reception History ◽  
Book Of Revelation ◽  
Imperial Cult ◽  
Emotional Effect ◽  
Greco Roman ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Figurative Speech ◽  
Theological Message ◽  
Over Time ◽  
The Way

The chapter first surveys different types of figurative speech in Revelation, including simile, metaphor, symbol, and narrative image. Second, it considers the way images are interrelated in the narrative world of the book. Third, it notes how the images draw associations from various backgrounds, including biblical and later Jewish sources, Greco-Roman myths, and the imperial cult, and how this enriches the understanding of the text. Fourth, the chapter looks at the rhetorical impact of the imagery on readers and stresses in particular its evocative, persuasive, and parenetic function together with its emotional effect. And fifth, it looks briefly at the way reception history shows how the imagery has engaged readers over time. Thus, illustrated by numerous examples, it becomes clear how essentially the imagery of the book of Revelation constitutes and determines its theological message.

The process of transfer: The micro-influences of power, time and learning

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 445-464 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Peter Dolowitz ◽  
Rodica Plugaru ◽  
Sabine Saurugger
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Study ◽  
Transfer Process ◽  
Policy Transfer ◽  
Interactive Effects ◽  
Dynamic Effects ◽  
Governance Framework ◽  
Theoretical Assumptions ◽  
Hospital Construction ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Over Time

To date, there have been a number of studies that have examined how policies move from one jurisdiction to another. However, few of these studies have examined the micro-interactive effects of actors. This is necessary to understand how actors shape outcomes over time. The aim of this paper is to engage with this micro-level literature through an empirical study of policy transfer in the field of architectural norms in hospital construction in post-Soviet states. To do this, we generate several theoretical assumptions to link the transfer literature to wider debates in the governance framework. The goal is to discover how the power of actors interacts in the policymaking processes to influence outcomes over time and in light of learning. What we hope to do is bring the interactive and dynamic effects that occur between agents attempting to shape the transfer process back into the transfer picture. The aim is to show that power flows and that these flows alter the shape and outcome of the transfer process.

Double, triple or quadruple hits? Exploring the impact of cybercrime on victims in the Netherlands

2021 ◽  
pp. 026975802110106
Author(s):  
Raoul Notté ◽  
E.R. Leukfeldt ◽  
Marijke Malsch
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
Moral Judgments ◽  
Victim Blaming ◽  
High Prevalence ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insight Into

This article explores the impact of online crime victimisation. A literature review and 41 interviews – 19 with victims and 22 with experts – were carried out to gain insight into this. The interviews show that most impacts of online offences correspond to the impacts of traditional offline offences. There are also differences with offline crime victimisation. Several forms of impact seem to be specific to victims of online crime: the substantial scale and visibility of victimhood, victimisation that does not stop in time, the interwovenness of online and offline, and victim blaming. Victims suffer from double, triple or even quadruple hits; it is the accumulation of different types of impact, enforced by the limitlessness in time and space, which makes online crime victimisation so extremely invasive. Furthermore, the characteristics of online crime victimisation greatly complicate the fight against and prevention of online crime. Finally, the high prevalence of cybercrime victimisation combined with the severe impact of these crimes seems contradictory with public opinion – and associated moral judgments – on victims. Further research into the dominant public discourse on victimisation and how this affects the functioning of the police and victim support would be valuable.

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