Impact of the Economic and Financial Crisis on Pension Systems in Central and Eastern Europe: Hungary

2011 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 287-298 ◽  
Author(s):  
András Simonovits
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Public Expenditures ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Government ◽  
Pension Benefits ◽  
Economic And Financial Crisis

By 2008, the Hungarian pension system had grown too generous (with the average pension to average net wage ratio equaling 70%) and the implied contribution rate (32%) was hindering growth (dropping to 1% in 2007). When the international economic and financial crisis deprived Hungary of normal credits, the country’s government turned to international organizations for help. The most spectacular element of the conditions attached to the bailout package was the short and long-term reduction of pension benefits. Within months, the Hungarian government eliminated the unsustainable 13th month benefit, reduced health-insurance contribution rates, replaced wage-price indexation with price indexation and drastically increased the normal retirement age in the medium-run. The newly elected conservative party practically shut down the second pillar and used up the released capital not only to reduce the government deficit and debt but also to finance public expenditures.

scholarly journals Strengthening Indonesia's Economic Growth with Islamic and non-Islamic Macroeconomic Variable

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 107-128
Author(s):  
Eba Ismi Alifah ◽  
Anton Bawono
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Islamic Bank ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Government ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

Abstract: This research was conducted to determine the effect of taxes, Sukuk, grants, inflation, foreign debt, total financing, and the network of Islamic bank offices on Indonesia's economic growth. Research data for each variable is monthly from 2009-2018. Data analysis variables use Error Correction Model (ECM) Test and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) Test with Eviews ver.10. The results showed that in the short and long term, variables taxes, Sukuk, inflation, foreign debt, total financing, and office networks of Islamic banks) affected the Indonesian economic growth. At the same time, grants have no significant effect on economic growth. For variable predictions in the next year (2019), only economic growth, grants, inflation, foreign debt, and network of Islamic bank offices can be predicted. Meanwhile, taxes, Sukuk, and total financing cannot be identified in 2019 because the variables are not significant in the ARCH analysis, so it cannot be diagnosed about future values. This result implies that the government and the community must continue to work together to manage state revenues used to fund productive projects to stimulate economic growth.Abstrak: Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui pengaruh pajak, sukuk negara, hibah, inflasi, utang luar negeri, jumlah pembiayaan dan jaringan kantor bank syariah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Data penelitian setiap variabel berupa bulanan dari tahun 2009-2018. Uji variabel penelitian menggunakan Uji Error Correction Model (ECM) dan Uji ARCH menggunakan Eviews ver.10. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang, variabel pajak, sukuk negara, inflasi, utang luar negeri, jumlah pembiayaan dan jaringan kantor bank syariah berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Sedangkan variabel hibah tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Untuk prediksi variabel di tahun berikutnya (tahun 2019), hanya variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi, hibah, inflasi, utang luar negeri dan jumlah jaringan kantor bank syariah yang dapat diprediksi, sedangkan pajak, sukuk negara, dan jumlah pembiayaan tidak dapat diketahui nilai perkembangannya di tahun 2019 karena variabel tersebut tidak signifikan pada analisis ARCH. Sehingga tidak dapat di diagnosa dalam bentuk ARCH untuk dilakukan forecast data agar diketahui tentang nilai di masa yang akan datang. Implikasi dari temuan ini adalah diperlukan upaya yang berkesinambungan dari pemerintah dan masyarakat dalam mengelola penerimaan negara yang dimanfaatkan untuk mendanai proyek yang produktif sehingga dapat mempercepat pertumbuhan ekonomi. 

scholarly journals Challenges for the Romanian Public Pensions System in the Current Economic and Financial Crisis

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anca Sava
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Aging Population ◽  
Public Pension ◽  
Public Pensions ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Public Pension System ◽  
Economic And Financial Crisis

This paper aims to address the challenges for the Romanian public pensions system in the current economic and financial crisis. Firstly, are presented the defining indicators of the Romanian public pension system, such as number of pensioners, the number of taxpayers, the dependency ratio pensioners/contributors, public pension expenditure as a percentage of GDP, etc. The article illustrates the challenges regarding the sustainability of the pension system to the aging population and the main predictions of specialized financial institutions on public pension expenditure for the next period. It also presents the current abuses of public pension system and the measures taken by the Romanian<br />authorities to reform it.

Oil supercycle and fiscal policy

2015 ◽  
pp. 5-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Gurvich ◽  
I. Belyakov ◽  
I. Prilepskiy
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Large Amplitude ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Reserve Fund ◽  
The Government

Long-term trends in oil price are discussed in the article. We find out that both short- and long-term projections mainly extrapolate into the future current developments in hydrocarbon prices. Meanwhile both historical data and analysis of fundamental economic mechanisms reveal supercycles - price waves with large amplitude and length amounting to several decades. Implications for fiscal policy from oil price swings are considered. We demonstrate in particular that these swings ensure high returns on the oil fund operations due to substantial gap between exchange rates at the periods of fund replenishment and withdrawal. This makes the oil Reserve fund mechanism by far more profitable for the government than other potential investment tools.

It's Our Environment: Two Terms of SNP Environmental Policy

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominic Hinde
Keyword(s):  
Conservative Party ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
Policy Agenda ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
Governance Strategies ◽  
Food And Drink ◽  
Scottish Government ◽  
The Government

Under the SNP, Scotland has sought to develop a reputation for itself as a renewables powerhouse and a counterweight to the perceived anti-green Conservative party in Westminster. From the ‘Saudi Arabia of Renewables’ to ‘the land of food and drink’, the last eight years have seen the development of a self-consciously Scottish environmental framework. This article is intended as a brief critique of the SNP's environmental record in government in both rhetorical and policy terms, looking not only at policy outcomes but the discursive limitations within which the Scottish Government has constrained itself. It argues that nationalist governance strategies are limited in their ability to fully deal with both local and global environmental challenges. It concludes that, although the SNP have a fair record on ‘shallow’ environmentalism, there is still no policy agenda present within the government to radically modernise Scotland in the way that is necessary to protect the environment and guarantee higher quality of life for its people in the long term.

scholarly journals Impact of demographic ageing on sustainability of public finance in Serbia

Stanovnistvo ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksandar Zdravkovic ◽  
Ivana Domazet ◽  
Vladimir Nikitovic
Keyword(s):  
Public Finance ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Public Pension ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Demographic Ageing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government

Population ageing is a global phenomenon without precedent in the history of humanity having implications in all facets of life. From an economic point of view, population ageing is certainly one of the biggest challenges of modern time. A consequence of these global demographic tendencies reflected in growing number of pensioners which negatively affects sustainability of public pension systems financed by the principle of intergenerational solidarity (Pay-As-You-Go) - widely represented in public pension schemes of European countries. In this paper, impact of demographic ageing on pension systems is analyzed in the context of sustainability of public finance in Serbia in the period 2010-2050. Although the comparative analysis of the pension expenditure share in gross domestic product (GDP) does not point to significant differences between Serbia and the countries in the neighborhood and the European Union, the growth trend of subsidizing the Pension Fund from the government budget endangers medium-term sustainability of the public pension system in Serbia, bearing in mind that the implementation of measures proposed in pension reforms can be valorized only in the long run. The main objective of the analysis is projecting long-term pension expenditure as a share of GDP. The projections were formed indirectly by modeling the average pension expenditure, because this variable incorporates both growth in the total pension expenditure and growth in the number of pensioners as a result of demographic trends, and better reflects the actual growth of pension expenditure. For the purposes of the analysis, in addition to the projection of real GDP growth, size of the inactive population aged 65 and over, as the main contingent of the pension system users and the total number of pensioners, was projected by means of stochastic cohort component methodology. Based on these projections and assumptions about the growth rate of average pension expenditure (three scenarios), the projections of total pension expenditure (as a percentage of GDP) are produced for the period 2010-2050. The results indicate that the growth rate of pension expenditure over the past few years is unsustainable in the long run. However, there is fiscal space for continuous real growth of pensions that does not jeopardize the budget deficit on the medium term, and leads to long-term reduction of the share of pension expenditures in GDP. The proposed change would not affect sustainability of the pension system and consequently public finance in Serbia, even in completely certain circumstances of significant increase in the number of elderly and their pressure on the workforce. In this context, critical review of the current government approach to the pension growth dynamics was given from the perspective of medium-term sustainability of pension system, which resulted in appropriate recommendations. Generally, the intent of the Government of the Republic of Serbia on the indexation of pensions represent a good solution long term, but the premise of increasing pensions for a part of real GDP growth, if it is higher than 4%, is subject to criticism from the point of view of medium-term sustainability. The crisis cycle of the Serbian economy, similarly to that on a global level, has its maximum and minimum phase. After a maximum of the crisis is reached, there should be a few years of economic stagnation followed by gradual, and then by faster economic growth. Due to the projection of a relatively higher rate of economic growth and GDP in a future economic recovery, there is an increased risk that such a growth could be followed by sudden jumps in the growth of pensions, which could result in unsustainable funding of pension system. Therefore, the Government should impose some limitations in terms of the maximum increase in pension per annum in case of intensive and high economic growth.

scholarly journals The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis, Does It Sustain?

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bashar Al-Zu'bi ◽  
Hussein Salameh ◽  
Qasim Mousa Abu Eid
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

<p>This paper studies the short and long term relationship between S&amp;P500 USA stock market index and the stock market indices of 30 countries around the world over the period June 2010-April 2015. We implement OLS regression and use error correction model to examine the short and long term relationship between the variables. Empirically, we find that there is a relationship on the short and long term between S&amp;P500 and the indices of 27 countries from East Asia, Europe, Latin America, Middle East as well as the countries of Australia and Canada. These results conclude that the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 significantly and lengthy increased the already high level of co-movement between the USA financial market and the observed stock market for 27 countries around the world. The findings from our research are important; however, we believe that further research based on our findings is necessary.</p>

scholarly journals Exogenous shocks and citizens’ satisfaction with governmental policies: can empirical evidence from the 2008 financial crisis help us understand better the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takis Venetoklis
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
European Social Survey ◽  
Term Effect ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Exogenous Shocks ◽  
The 2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
The Government ◽  
Term Performance

AbstractI examine to what extend the financial crisis of 2008 affected levels of individual satisfaction with governments in general and three policy areas in particular; the economy, health services and education. I use data from the European Social Survey (9 rounds, 2002-2018, 14 countries, approx.195000 observations). Running Interrupted Time Series regressions I find that, on aggregate, there was a decrease of satisfaction with the government and the economy immediately after the crisis, but an increase for health and educational services. Longer term, satisfaction gradually increased for all the four indicators examined. In separate regressions for each country, a consistent pattern of behavior emerges. Where the short-term effect on satisfaction was negative, the long-term effect was positive, and vice versa. The switch, from short-term negative to long-term positive effect, could be attributed to the successful efforts of governments to correct the immediate adverse effects of the crisis. On the contrary, some individuals seeing the problems other countries faced, applauded their own government’s short term performance in handling the crisis. With the passing of time however, they gradually became more critical. The COVID-19 pandemic has forced governments to implement policies reviving the economy and improving services in health and the education sectors, amongst others. Results of this study may be used when measuring and evaluating the effects of the current pandemic.

scholarly journals UPAYA POLISI AIRUD DALAM PENANGGULANGAN TERJADINYA TINDAK PIDANA ILLEGAL FISHING DI WILAYAH PERAIRAN TANJUNGBALAI

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
Lamhot Gurning ◽  
Mangasa Manurung ◽  
H. Bachtiar Simatupang
Keyword(s):  
Deterrent Effect ◽  
The Public ◽  
Illegal Fishing ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Analytical Research ◽  
The Government ◽  
Decisive Action ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Laws And Regulations

Illegal fishing is an act that is very detrimental to a nation and state. The impact will be seen in the short and long term. The government makes handling illegal fishing crimes a very serious concern. This study aims to determine the forms of illegal fishing, AIRUD Police efforts in overcoming and knowing the inhibiting factors of illegal fishing in Tanjungbalai waters. Descriptive analytical research means trying to collect, study, analyze, and describe the illegal fishing countermeasures. The results showed the forms of illegal fishing in Tanjungbalai, namely the use of fishing gear that is in conflict with the laws and regulations (trawl pull). The efforts of AIRUD Police in tackling the occurrence of illegal fishing in the waters of Tanjungbalai are preventive and repressive efforts. Preventive efforts aimed at increasing the intensity of the socialization of laws and regulations to the public, and increasing patrols in waters according to the scope of duties of the Air Force Police Tanjungbalai. Refressive efforts, namely describing decisive action against illegal fishing perpetrators so that it provides a deterrent effect and then provides direction so as not to do the same thing over and over again. The obstacles of AIRUD Police in tackling illegal fishing are the lack of personnel, and the fishermen's HR which are still relatively low, the completeness of facilities and supporting facilities that are still limited in increasing routine patrols in carrying out the tasks of supervision, protection and protecting the special community of fishermen in the waters.

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