Oil supercycle and fiscal policy

2015 ◽  
pp. 5-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Gurvich ◽  
I. Belyakov ◽  
I. Prilepskiy
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Large Amplitude ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Reserve Fund ◽  
The Government

Long-term trends in oil price are discussed in the article. We find out that both short- and long-term projections mainly extrapolate into the future current developments in hydrocarbon prices. Meanwhile both historical data and analysis of fundamental economic mechanisms reveal supercycles - price waves with large amplitude and length amounting to several decades. Implications for fiscal policy from oil price swings are considered. We demonstrate in particular that these swings ensure high returns on the oil fund operations due to substantial gap between exchange rates at the periods of fund replenishment and withdrawal. This makes the oil Reserve fund mechanism by far more profitable for the government than other potential investment tools.

Market Challenges, Risks, and Policy

2018 ◽  
pp. 163-188
Author(s):  
Adam Christopher Wood
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
International Perspective ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Wall Street ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Government ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy

This chapter first examines what caused the need to regain global stability after the financial crisis. The author provides a brief refresher of how the market crash in 2008, and subsequent Great Recession, was initially fueled while honing in on the allocation of “the fuel” coupled with the repeals of bicentennial-long legislation and the associated dangers of these economic policy changes. Notations from Nobel laureates and interagency economists from the IMF and World Bank aid in identifying the consequences of these policy decisions while simultaneously illustrating the enhanced risk within a variety of markets. Next, the author discusses the current state and relative stability of the financial markets, economic policy, and the risks associated therein. Lastly, this chapter provides recommendations for the future of monetary and fiscal policy, globalization, and what the government (and Wall Street) must consider should they seek to attain long-term financial stability from an international perspective. Monetary and fiscal policy decisions implemented and in-progress by the Federal Reserve are fastidiously examined throughout this chapter.

scholarly journals Strengthening Indonesia's Economic Growth with Islamic and non-Islamic Macroeconomic Variable

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 107-128
Author(s):  
Eba Ismi Alifah ◽  
Anton Bawono
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Islamic Bank ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Government ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

Abstract: This research was conducted to determine the effect of taxes, Sukuk, grants, inflation, foreign debt, total financing, and the network of Islamic bank offices on Indonesia's economic growth. Research data for each variable is monthly from 2009-2018. Data analysis variables use Error Correction Model (ECM) Test and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) Test with Eviews ver.10. The results showed that in the short and long term, variables taxes, Sukuk, inflation, foreign debt, total financing, and office networks of Islamic banks) affected the Indonesian economic growth. At the same time, grants have no significant effect on economic growth. For variable predictions in the next year (2019), only economic growth, grants, inflation, foreign debt, and network of Islamic bank offices can be predicted. Meanwhile, taxes, Sukuk, and total financing cannot be identified in 2019 because the variables are not significant in the ARCH analysis, so it cannot be diagnosed about future values. This result implies that the government and the community must continue to work together to manage state revenues used to fund productive projects to stimulate economic growth.Abstrak: Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui pengaruh pajak, sukuk negara, hibah, inflasi, utang luar negeri, jumlah pembiayaan dan jaringan kantor bank syariah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Data penelitian setiap variabel berupa bulanan dari tahun 2009-2018. Uji variabel penelitian menggunakan Uji Error Correction Model (ECM) dan Uji ARCH menggunakan Eviews ver.10. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang, variabel pajak, sukuk negara, inflasi, utang luar negeri, jumlah pembiayaan dan jaringan kantor bank syariah berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Sedangkan variabel hibah tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Untuk prediksi variabel di tahun berikutnya (tahun 2019), hanya variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi, hibah, inflasi, utang luar negeri dan jumlah jaringan kantor bank syariah yang dapat diprediksi, sedangkan pajak, sukuk negara, dan jumlah pembiayaan tidak dapat diketahui nilai perkembangannya di tahun 2019 karena variabel tersebut tidak signifikan pada analisis ARCH. Sehingga tidak dapat di diagnosa dalam bentuk ARCH untuk dilakukan forecast data agar diketahui tentang nilai di masa yang akan datang. Implikasi dari temuan ini adalah diperlukan upaya yang berkesinambungan dari pemerintah dan masyarakat dalam mengelola penerimaan negara yang dimanfaatkan untuk mendanai proyek yang produktif sehingga dapat mempercepat pertumbuhan ekonomi. 

scholarly journals Fiscal Sustainability in Poland: How Did the Public Policy Shift of 2016–2019 Impact the Country’s Long-Term Sustainability?

Ekonomista ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maciej WYSOCKI ◽  
Cezary WÓJCIK
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Social Programs ◽  
Social Expenditure ◽  
Significant Deterioration ◽  
The Public ◽  
Policy Shift ◽  
The Government

In 2016–2019 Poland experienced a major social and fiscal policy shift: new government decreased the statutory retirement age and launched several new social programs, including the sweeping Family 500+ program under which social expenditure on family and children support increased suddenly from 1.5% to nearly 3% of GDP. Moreover, VAT gap reduction policies have been implemented swiftly. The new policy move became highly controversial. Many economists argued that overall it would lead to a significant deterioration of long-term fiscal sustainability. The government argued in turn that the new program was well financed by a complementary policy of VAT gap reduction and saw no risk to country’s fiscal sustainability. This paper provides one of the first evidence of the adverse effect of the policy shift on long-term fiscal sustainability. The analysis reveals that fiscal sustainability parameters have deteriorated significantly after 2016. Overall, the estimations presented in the paper show that in the period of 2016–2019 fiscal sustainability parameters may have been the lowest since Poland joined the EU in 2004. While these results should be treated with caution as they draw on very recent time series, the deterioration of Poland’s fiscal sustainability raises a pertinent policy question related to country’s capacity to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic, in particular in terms of the ability to use standard and non-standard fiscal policy instruments and monetary policy tools in response to the shock.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Ekonomi Global dan Domestik Terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 64
Author(s):  
Dini Hariyanti ◽  
Soeharjoto Soekapdjo
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Local Resources ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Determine Effect

One of the biggest obstacles for countries economic growth compound is inflation. Government attempted to have lower and stable inflation.  Purpose of this research is to determine effect of the global and domestic economy to inflation in Indonesia. Using quarterly time series data from 2009-2018 derived from the Indonesian Economic and Financial Statistics (SEKI), International Financial Statistics (IFS), and Investing. ECM regression model used for this research. For short term, interest rate and exchange rates have positive and significant effect to inflation. But money supply, GDP and oil price not significant, while in long term, interest rate and oil price have positive and significant to inflation, while money supply, GDP and exchange rates are not significant. Government policies are monitoring and anticipating global and domestic fluctuation, by  maintaining  the stability of interest rate and exchange rates, and also using environmentally friendly alternatives resources, in order to reducing dependence on oil. Besides that, government needs to undertake increasing of GDP to maintain people purchasing power and money supply distribution for productive sector which have biggest adding value by utilizing local resources.

scholarly journals Unrestricted Vector Autoregressive Modelling of the Interaction among Oil Price, Exchange Rate and Inflation in Nigeria (1981–2017)

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
G. L. Tuaneh ◽  
L. Wiri
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
National Income ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The Government

The interdependence among oil prices, exchange rates and inflation rates, and their response to shocks, was a cause of concern. Unrestricted Vector Autoregression (UVAR) was employed to analyse this interactions as well as to investigate the pattern of causality among the study variable. Annual data spanning from 1981 to 2017 was sourced from the Statistical Bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria. Pre-estimation analysis showed that all variables were integrated of order one 1(1), and there no cointegrating relationship. The inverse root of AR characteristic polynomial showed a stable VAR model. All lag length selection criteria chose a lag length of 1. The UVAR estimates and the test of significance particularly the granger causality test indicated significant influence and uni-directional effect from oil price to exchange rates. The Wald statistics, showed significant own shocks, and the impulse response showed that all variables were instantaneously affected by own shocks. Exchange rate was instantaneously affected by oil price; however, it ruled out the response in inflation rate to contemporaneous shocks in oil price. The variance decomposition further showed that at least 93.1%, 97.1% and 92.4% of the impulse response in oil price, exchange rate, and inflation rate respectively were from own shocks in the long run. The post estimation analysis showed that the VAR model was multivariate normal, the residual was homoscedastic, and there was no serial autocorrelation. It was recommended that the government should diversify the national income stream and consider policies that will control inflation.

scholarly journals Policy Forum: Newfoundland and Labrador's Debt Strategy—Waiting for a Saviour or Godot?

2019 ◽  
Vol 67 (4) ◽  
pp. 983-1010
Author(s):  
Wade Locke ◽  
Douglas May
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Newfoundland And Labrador ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Debt Problem ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Government ◽  
Policy Forum

When the government of Newfoundland and Labrador assumed office in late 2015, it declared that the expected deficit for the current fiscal year would be almost double that which was budgeted for by the predecessor government. The new government then adopted a very aggressive fiscal-policy stance in its first budget, tabled in April 2016. However, following the finance minister's resignation in July 2017, the government seemed to dramatically change its strategy, adopting a passive policy response to the worsening deficit situation. While in subsequent years Newfoundland and Labrador's annual deficit has fallen, its net and gross debt per capita have ballooned and reached new heights relative to Canada's other provinces. This article presents an in-depth investigation of this expansion and examines the probabilities of success, in the medium and long term, of the government's current fiscal strategy as a response to its deepening debt problem.

The Effects of Exchange Rate on Export Performance in Tanzania

2020 ◽  
pp. 47-67
Author(s):  
Haroub Hamad Omar ◽  
Nildag Basak Ceylan ◽  
Ayhan Kapusuzoglu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Foreign Demand ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Exchange Rate Level

The chapter analyzes the effects of exchange rate of Tanzanian shilling on the country's exports performance applying Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model covering the sample period from 1993:Q1 to 2016:Q4. Cointegration and causality tests are performed to investigate the short- and long-term relationships between the variables to evaluate the financial competition. The results show that; there is no long-term relationship (cointegration) between exchange rates and exports and between foreign demand and exports. Moreover, the results of causality test show no short-term relationship (causality) between exchange rates and exports and between foreign demand and exports. As the findings suggest, the exchange rate level of Tanzanian shilling (in nominal terms) does not statistic-significantly affect the country's exports performance.

scholarly journals Optimal Time-Consistent Government Debt Maturity*

2016 ◽  
Vol 132 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide Debortoli ◽  
Ricardo Nunes ◽  
Pierre Yared
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Debt Maturity ◽  
Optimal Time ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Maturity Structure ◽  
The Government ◽  
Lack Of Commitment ◽  
The Cost

Abstract This article develops a model of optimal government debt maturity in which the government cannot issue state-contingent bonds and cannot commit to fiscal policy. If the government can perfectly commit, it fully insulates the economy against government spending shocks by purchasing short-term assets and issuing long-term debt. These positions are quantitatively very large relative to GDP and do not need to be actively managed by the government. Our main result is that these conclusions are not robust to the introduction of lack of commitment. Under lack of commitment, large and tilted debt positions are very expensive to finance ex ante since they exacerbate the problem of lack of commitment ex post. In contrast, a flat maturity structure minimizes the cost of lack of commitment, though it also limits insurance and increases the volatility of fiscal policy distortions. We show that the optimal time-consistent maturity structure is nearly flat because reducing average borrowing costs is quantitatively more important for welfare than reducing fiscal policy volatility. Thus, under lack of commitment, the government actively manages its debt positions and can approximate optimal policy by confining its debt instruments to consols.

scholarly journals Infrared Light Curves of Carbon-Rich Variables

2000 ◽  
Vol 177 ◽  
pp. 179-190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patricia Whitelock
Keyword(s):  
Large Amplitude ◽  
Light Curves ◽  
Infrared Light ◽  
Dust Shells ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
Long Term Trends

Long-term trends in the infrared (JHKL) light curves of various carbon variables are described. Some stars, e.g. the semi-regular variables R Scl and GM CMa, show multiple periodicities; others, particularly the Miras with moderately thick dust-shells, show more erratic long-term changes. The light curves for R For, which have been intensively monitored over 20 years, show a pattern which is reminiscent of that seen for R CrB stars. This pattern is superimposed on regular large-amplitude Mira pulsations. The multi-periodic and erratic behaviour of these stars is compared with the predictions from various models.

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