scholarly journals Are the well-known economic hypotheses about the effects of inflation and devaluation suitable for Ukraine?

Ekonomika ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 94 (3) ◽  
pp. 46-69
Author(s):  
Yuri V. Vasylenko
Keyword(s):  
Positive Result ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Price Increase ◽  
Traditional Theory ◽  
The Real ◽  
Keynesian Theory ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
The Government

In Ukraine, the well-known position of the Keynesian theory of the utility of moderate inflation is not confirmed. There is no such a level of price increase which would cause the improvement of the economy. Any inflation reduces the real GDP. If inflation falls short of the devaluation, the real GDP index increases the more the more is the lag. If no lagging, the GDP decreases. Devaluation is not always beneficial for exporters and for the country on the whole as claimed by the traditional theory of foreign trade. If devaluation has been done, exporters must lobby curb domestic prices. Emission may give a positive result only if the government will manage to keep inflation. The most effective direction of emission is to invest in companies and to cover the budget deficit. Additional emissions as a support of banks destroys the economy at any inflation. The IMF, providing loans or help to Ukraine, should prohibit this action because it is one of the powerful ways of thefts.

scholarly journals Determinants of Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy on Output: The Case of Bulgaria

2009 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Vladimirov ◽  
Maria Neycheva
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Currency Board ◽  
Main Determinant ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Linear Effects ◽  
Policy Impacts ◽  
The Government

Determinants of Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy on Output: The Case of BulgariaThe paper illuminates the non-linear effects of the government budget on short-run economic activity. The study shows that in the Bulgarian economy under a Currency Board Arrangement the tax policy impacts the real growth in the standard Keynesian manner. On the other hand, the expenditure policy exhibits non-Keynesian behavior on the short-run output: cuts in government spending accelerate the real GDP growth. The main determinant of this outcome is the size of the discretionary budgetary changes. The results imply that the balanced budget rule improves the sustainability of public finances without assuring a growth-enhancing effect.

scholarly journals Cotton Imports and GDP of Indonesia- Cointegration Analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 149-154
Author(s):  
P. Soumya ◽  
R. A. Yeledhalli
Keyword(s):  
High Speed ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Use Of Technology ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The study examines the impact of cotton imports on the real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of Indonesia for a period from 1992 to 2018 using ARDL approach and Granger causality analysis. Results of the study indicated that cotton imports have negative effect on economic growth. For every 1% increase in cotton imports the real GDP decreased by 0.107% in the long run. Any disequilibrium in the model is adjusted with a high speed of adjustment of 107.7% in less than a year. Shocks and the trend are adjusted in less than one year. There is no causality between imports of cotton and the real GDP. The study suggested effort should be taken by the government to increase yield of cotton by the use of technology and also a need to initiate farmers to take up cotton farming. 

Trade Deficit in Nepal: Relationship between Trade Deficit and Budget Deficits

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 95-108
Author(s):  
Khom Raj Karel ◽  
Suman Kharel
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Simple Linear Regression ◽  
Huge Amount ◽  
Growth Trend ◽  
Strong Positive Relationship ◽  
The Government ◽  
India And China

Nepal has bitter experiences of trade deficit; it has become the tradition of the country. The trade deficit of Nepal has been widening since the decades. The statistical data shows that around 80 percent of imports are from India and China. The growth trend of foreign trade has been increasing in different years after year with a huge amount of trade deficit. As the size of foreign trade increased the trade deficit of Nepal has-been increasing as well. The government of Nepal has been announcing the deficit budget. This study focused to analyze the trends of trade deficit of Nepal and observing the relations of trade deficit and budget deficit. Simple statistical tools are applied to analyze the trend and growth of foreign trade of Nepal and correlation and simple linear regression model has been used to examine the linkages between trade deficit and budget deficit of Nepal. The study has found a strong positive relationship between trade deficit and budget deficit of Nepal. As result, there is a significant impact of budget deficit on trade deficit. The finding of the regression analysis indicates that budget deficit is a significant predictor of trade deficit.

scholarly journals Impacts Of The Aggregate Economic And Financial Conditions On Output In An Emerging Economy

2012 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 261
Author(s):  
Yu Hsing ◽  
Susan M. L. Zee ◽  
Michael C. Budden ◽  
Robert F. Cope III
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Market Equilibrium ◽  
Seasonal Effects ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Financial Conditions ◽  
Goods Market ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
The Government

This study formulates the theoretical model based on the money market equilibrium, the goods market equilibrium, and an augmented aggregate supply function. The sample ranges from 1996.Q1 to 2009.Q3 and has 55 observations. Applying the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, this paper finds that Brazils real GDP is positively impacted by real M2 money supply, the real stock price, world output and the expected inflation rate and is negatively influenced by the government deficit as a percent of GDP, the real BRL/USD exchange rate and the U.S. Treasury bill rate. The first and third quarters exhibit seasonal effects. Therefore, expansionary monetary policy is more effective than deficit-financed expansionary fiscal policy, and pursuing real appreciation, promoting a robust stock market, and maintaining a strong world economy will benefit the Brazilian economy.

Is Real Depreciation or Rising Government Debt Contractionary in India? A Simultaneous-Equation Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 20170010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Hsing ◽  
Wen-jen Hsieh
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Simultaneous Equation ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
The Government

Based on a sample during 1978–2014, this paper finds that India’s real GDP has a positive relationship with real depreciation during 1978–2002, the government debt/GDP ratio, the real stock price, the growth rate of U.S. real GDP, and a negative relationship with real depreciation during 2003–2014, the real lending rate and the expected inflation rate. Therefore, the stage of economic development may play an important role in deciding whether real depreciation or real appreciation may promote economic growth.

scholarly journals What Determines Balance of Payments: A Case of Pakistan

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Syeda Azra Batool ◽  
Tahir Memood ◽  
Atif Khan Jadoon
Keyword(s):  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Positive Direction ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
Bound Test

Distortion in balance of payments is one of the dominant causes for the sluggish economic condition of Pakistan. The present article has focused to scrutinize the relationship of the balance of payments to its certain determinants that are actually blamable or not for its distortion. The robust ARDL structure has been utilized to develop the bound testing approach to co-integration and error correction models on data set for 1972-2013.The bound test declares that there exists stable long run relationship of balance of payments to its determinants. The upshots indicate that real exchange rate inversely influences the balance of payments not only in the long run but also in the short run. Interest rate inversely affects the balance of payment in the long run but positively affects in the short run .Fiscal balance affects the BOP negatively in the long and short run simultaneously. As regards the real GDP, it moves the BOP in the positive direction in both long and short run. The money supply cast a positive influence on the BOP in the short run but negative effect in the long run. So the need of the hour is that the real GDP of Pakistan should be increased by the deliberate policy of the government. Because it is the GDP that can increase our savings consumption and government expenditures and exports and can improve balance of balance of payment.

Crisis Reactions and Their Consequences for the Real Sector of the Russian Economy

2011 ◽  
pp. 39-50
Author(s):  
V. Lushin
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Acute Phase ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
The Real ◽  
Balanced Development ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Modernization

The author analyzes factors that led to a deeper fall in output and profitability in the real sector of the Russian economy in comparison with other segments during the acute phase of the financial crisis. It is argued that some contradictions in the government anti-recession policy, activities of the financial sector and natural monopolies lead to pumping out added value created in manufacturing and agriculture, increase symptoms of the «Dutch disease», etc. It is shown that it may threaten the balanced development of the Russian economy, and a set of measures is suggested to minimize these tendencies and create a basis for the state modernization policy.

Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: India. By Jagdish N. Bhagwati and T.N. Sirinivasan. New York Columbia University Press (Published by the National Bureau of Economic Research 1975) 261 pages.

1977 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 112-114
Author(s):  
Abdur Razzaq Shahid
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Columbia University ◽  
The Government ◽  
Exchange Control

This volume on India is one of a series of research projects on exchange control, liberalization, and economic development, undertaken for many less developed countries. The study deals with three major topics: exchange control, liberalization, and growth. First, under 'The Anatomy of Exchange Control', the methods of allocation and intervention in the foreign trade and payments practised by the government during the restrictive period 1956-66 and their economic impact are discussed. Then, a detailed analysis of the 'Liberalization Episode' which covers the policies in the period 1966-68, including the June 1966 devaluation, and the episode's effect on price level, economic activity, and exports is given. Finally, the overall growth effects of the foreign trade regime (broadly defined as exchange rate policy plus the frame-work of relevant domestic policies such as industrial licensing), and their possible contribution to India's rather unsatisfactory economic performance are examined.

A Macroeconomic Analysis of Agricultural Sector in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-25
Author(s):  
Isah Funtua Abubakar ◽  
Umar Bambale Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Value Chain ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Size Analysis ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
The Impact

This paper attempts to study the Nigerian agriculture industry as a panacea to growth as well as an anchor to the diversification agenda of the present government. To do this, the time series data of the four agriculture subsectors of crop production, livestock, forestry and fishery were analysed as stimulus to the Real GDP from 1981-2016 in order to explicate the individual contributions of the subsectors to the RGDP in order to guide the policy thrust on diversification. Using the Johansen approach to cointegration, all the variables were found to be cointegrated. With the exception of the forestry subsector, all the three subsectors were seen to have impacted on the real GDP at varying degrees during the time under review. The crop production subsector has the highest impact, however, taking size-by-size analysis, the livestock subsector could be of much importance due to its ability to retain its value chain and high investment returns particularly in poultry. Therefore, it is recommended that, the government should intensify efforts to retain the value chain in the crop production subsector, in order to harness its potentials optimally through the encouragement of the establishment of agriculture cottage industries. Secondly, the livestock subsector is found to be the most rapidly growing and commercialized subsector. Therefore, it should be the prime subsector to hinge the diversification agenda naturally. Lastly, the tourism industry which is a source through which the impact of the subsector is channeled to the GDP should be developed, in order to improve the impact of such channel to GDP with the sole objective to resuscitate the forestry subsector.

Coalitions and Government Formation: An Empirically Relevant Theory

1978 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 459-477 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Budge ◽  
Valentine Herman
Keyword(s):  
Game Theory ◽  
Real World ◽  
Coalition Formation ◽  
Government Formation ◽  
The Real ◽  
Relevant Theory ◽  
The Government ◽  
Number Of Parties ◽  
Government Coalition

Traditional theories of government coalition formation concentrate on formal criteria inspired by – if not directly drawn from – game theory. One such criterion is that the coalition which forms must be winning; another is that it should have no surplus members without whom it would still be winning, i.e. it should be minimal; and a third is that the number of parties should be as few as possible. The closest that such theories come to considering the substantive issues affecting the formation of coalitions in the real world is their focus on reducing the ideological diversity of parties within the government. On many occasions, however, such ideological considerations receive negligible attention from politicians, who often ignore size factors altogether.

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