scholarly journals Marriage Intentions Among Cohabiters in Lithuania

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
pp. 26-40
Author(s):  
Irma Dirsytė
Keyword(s):  
Family Formation ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
Education Level ◽  
Research Literature ◽  
Multinomial Regression ◽  
Major Life ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Living Together ◽  
The Future ◽  
Negative Effect

Living together in one household without being married in modern society is one of the defining features characterizing the transformations of the modern family, mentioned alongside late-age marriage, late-age childbearing, or frequent divorces. Marriage is still a major life transformation, but the pressure to marry today is lighter than ever before and many young couples in Europe start family life from living together in one household and not being married. However, cohabitation has not a universal meaning and role in family formation process and couples cohabit for different reasons and motives. Existing research proves, that union formation pattern depends on socioeconomical and sociodemographic characteristics, it varies by country and changes by time. In the research literature, cohabitation diffusion process is mainly based on the two arguments: cultural value changes which leads to “less marriage” and economic restrains which leads to postponed marriage until economic stability. The aim of this article is to investigate the intentions of cohabitors to marry and the factors modelling these intentions in Lithuania. The empirical analysis is based on the current Family and Inequality Survey (2019) data set about 1970-1984 birth cohort who lived in an extramarital partnership at the time of the research. The data consists rich information on the partnership and fertility, but also social and economic standing. Analysis of the data shows that, most of the cohabiting individuals in the analyzed cohort in Lithuania still undecided about marriage and could not name their intentions in the future. Descriptive statistics suggests that more man than women plan to marry their partner in the future. In addition, cohabitors with the lowest education level do not intend to marry their partner more than any another education level group. The multinomial regression results suggest that factors predicting marriage in the future are sex, partnership satisfaction and education. That leads to assume that in Lithuania cohabitation is only a prelude to marriage and individuals satisfied with the quality of their relationship intends to marry rather than continuing cohabitation as an alternative to marriage. Cohabitation can be chosen as a prelude to marriage to check the strength of a relationship and to accumulate economic and social resources. On another hand, having one child has a negative effect on the marriage intentions among cohabitors.

Collective Memory: Between Values and Historical Knowledge

2020 ◽  
pp. 124-142
Author(s):  
VICTOR BURLACHUK
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
Collective Memory ◽  
Rapid Change ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
The State ◽  
Main Element ◽  
Rapid Decline ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future

At the end of the twentieth century, questions of a secondary nature suddenly became topical: what do we remember and who owns the memory? Memory as one of the mental characteristics of an individual’s activity is complemented by the concept of collective memory, which requires a different method of analysis than the activity of a separate individual. In the 1970s, a situation arose that gave rise to the so-called "historical politics" or "memory politics." If philosophical studies of memory problems of the 30’s and 40’s of the twentieth century were focused mainly on the peculiarities of perception of the past in the individual and collective consciousness and did not go beyond scientific discussions, then half a century later the situation has changed dramatically. The problem of memory has found its political sound: historians and sociologists, politicians and representatives of the media have entered the discourse on memory. Modern society, including all social, ethnic and family groups, has undergone a profound change in the traditional attitude towards the past, which has been associated with changes in the structure of government. In connection with the discrediting of the Soviet Union, the rapid decline of the Communist Party and its ideology, there was a collapse of Marxism, which provided for a certain model of time and history. The end of the revolutionary idea, a powerful vector that indicated the direction of historical time into the future, inevitably led to a rapid change in perception of the past. Three models of the future, which, according to Pierre Nora, defined the face of the past (the future as a restoration of the past, the future as progress and the future as a revolution) that existed until recently, have now lost their relevance. Today, absolute uncertainty hangs over the future. The inability to predict the future poses certain challenges to the present. The end of any teleology of history imposes on the present a debt of memory. Features of the life of memory, the specifics of its state and functioning directly affect the state of identity, both personal and collective. Distortion of memory, its incorrect work, and its ideological manipulation can give rise to an identity crisis. The memorial phenomenon is a certain political resource in a situation of severe socio-political breaks and changes. In the conditions of the economic crisis and in the absence of a real and clear program for future development, the state often seeks to turn memory into the main element of national consolidation.

The Meanings of Life and Value Priorities of the Post-Soviet Society in the Republic of Belarus

2020 ◽  
Vol 63 (10) ◽  
pp. 25-37
Author(s):  
Alexander N. Danilov
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Role Model ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
Modern Technology ◽  
Soviet Society ◽  
The World ◽  
Value Priorities ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Republic

The article discusses the meanings of life and value priorities of the post- Soviet society. The author argues that, at present, there are symptoms of a global ideological crisis in the world, that the West does not have its own vision of where and how to move on and has no understanding of the future. Unfortunately, most of the post-Soviet countries do not have such vision as well. In these conditions, there are mistrust, confusion, paradoxical manifestation of human consciousness. The main meanings that determine our life-world are: the desire of citizens for social justice and social security, the desire to figure out and understand the basic values of modern society, how honestly and equally the authorities act toward their fellow citizens, and to what extent they reflect their interests. The meanings of life, which are the answers to the challenges of the time, are embodied in the cultural code of each nation, state. The growth points of new values, which will become the basis for the future sustainable development of a new civilization, have yet to be discovered in the systemic transformative changes of the culture. In this process, the emergence of a new system of values that governs human life is inevitable. However, modern technology brings new troubles to humans. It has provided wide opportunities for informational violence and public consciousness manipulation. Nowadays, the scenario that is implemented in Western consumer societies claims to be the dominant scenario. Meanwhile, today there is no country in the world that is a role model, there is no ideal that others would like to borrow. Most post-Soviet states failed to advance their societies to more decent levels of economic development, to meet the challenges of the modern information age, and to provide the population with new high living standards. Therefore, in conditions of growing confrontation, we should realistically understand the world and be ready to implement changes that will ensure sustainable development of the state and society without losing our national identity.

Procurement Analytics: Enabling Data Architectures in the Age of Big Data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Goul ◽  
T. S. Raghu ◽  
Ziru Li
Keyword(s):  
Big Data ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Research Literature ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Data Space ◽  
Prescriptive Analytics ◽  
Data Architecture ◽  
The Future ◽  
High Level ◽  
Area Data

As procurement organizations increasingly move from a cost-and-efficiency emphasis to a profit-and-growth emphasis, flexible data architecture will become an integral part of a procurement analytics strategy. It is therefore imperative for procurement leaders to understand and address digitization trends in supply chains and to develop strategies to create robust data architecture and analytics strategies for the future. This chapter assesses and examines the ways companies can organize their procurement data architectures in the big data space to mitigate current limitations and to lay foundations for the discovery of new insights. It sets out to understand and define the levels of maturity in procurement organizations as they pertain to the capture, curation, exploitation, and management of procurement data. The chapter then develops a framework for articulating the value proposition of moving between maturity levels and examines what the future entails for companies with mature data architectures. In addition to surveying the practitioner and academic research literature on procurement data analytics, the chapter presents detailed and structured interviews with over fifteen procurement experts from companies around the globe. The chapter finds several important and useful strategies that have helped procurement organizations design strategic roadmaps for the development of robust data architectures. It then further identifies four archetype procurement area data architecture contexts. In addition, this chapter details exemplary high-level mature data architecture for each archetype and examines the critical assumptions underlying each one. Data architectures built for the future need a design approach that supports both descriptive and real-time, prescriptive analytics.

scholarly journals Consistent satellite XCO<sub>2</sub> retrievals from SCIAMACHY and GOSAT using the BESD algorithm

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 1787-1832 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Heymann ◽  
M. Reuter ◽  
M. Hilker ◽  
M. Buchwitz ◽  
O. Schneising ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Detailed Comparison ◽  
Mean Difference ◽  
Total Carbon ◽  
Retrieval Algorithm ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Comparison Results ◽  
The Future

Abstract. Consistent and accurate long-term data sets of global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) are required for carbon cycle and climate related research. However, global data sets based on satellite observations may suffer from inconsistencies originating from the use of products derived from different satellites as needed to cover a long enough time period. One reason for inconsistencies can be the use of different retrieval algorithms. We address this potential issue by applying the same algorithm, the Bremen Optimal Estimation DOAS (BESD) algorithm, to different satellite instruments, SCIAMACHY onboard ENVISAT (March 2002–April 2012) and TANSO-FTS onboard GOSAT (launched in January 2009), to retrieve XCO2, the column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of CO2. BESD has been initially developed for SCIAMACHY XCO2 retrievals. Here, we present the first detailed assessment of the new GOSAT BESD XCO2 product. GOSAT BESD XCO2 is a product generated and delivered to the MACC project for assimilation into ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). We describe the modifications of the BESD algorithm needed in order to retrieve XCO2 from GOSAT and present detailed comparisons with ground-based observations of XCO2 from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). We discuss detailed comparison results between all three XCO2 data sets (SCIAMACHY, GOSAT and TCCON). The comparison results demonstrate the good consistency between the SCIAMACHY and the GOSAT XCO2. For example, we found a mean difference for daily averages of −0.60 ± 1.56 ppm (mean difference ± standard deviation) for GOSAT-SCIAMACHY (linear correlation coefficient r = 0.82), −0.34 ± 1.37 ppm (r = 0.86) for GOSAT-TCCON and 0.10 ± 1.79 ppm (r = 0.75) for SCIAMACHY-TCCON. The remaining differences between GOSAT and SCIAMACHY are likely due to non-perfect collocation (±2 h, 10° × 10° around TCCON sites), i.e., the observed air masses are not exactly identical, but likely also due to a still non-perfect BESD retrieval algorithm, which will be continuously improved in the future. Our overarching goal is to generate a satellite-derived XCO2 data set appropriate for climate and carbon cycle research covering the longest possible time period. We therefore also plan to extend the existing SCIAMACHY and GOSAT data set discussed here by using also data from other missions (e.g., OCO-2, GOSAT-2, CarbonSat) in the future.

Political and Institutional Checks on Corruption

2009 ◽  
Vol 42 (9) ◽  
pp. 1217-1244 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcus André Melo ◽  
Carlos Pereira ◽  
Carlos Mauricio Figueiredo
Keyword(s):  
Political Competition ◽  
New Democracies ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Electoral Connection ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Institutional Activism ◽  
Accountability Mechanism ◽  
Empirical Tests ◽  
Performance Determinants ◽  
Positive Direct

This article investigates the performance determinants of accountability institutions in new democracies. Current scholarship on accountability has identified a distinct mechanism through which the introduction of political competition may affect such institutions: the electoral connection or vertical accountability mechanism. This connection is not expected to be effective in new democracies, because political competition is found to be volatile and nonprogrammatic. Another strand of the literature focuses on the effect of power alternation. Government turnover is expected to generate incentives for the creation and strengthening of autonomous institutions. By exploring a unique data set on 33 state audit institutions, the authors bring together these distinct claims and provide systematic empirical tests for them. They find a negative effect of volatility on their institutional activism and a positive (direct and indirect) influence of power alternation on their levels of autonomy and sanctioning patterns.

Religion and aggregate support for redistribution

2018 ◽  
Vol 62 (3) ◽  
pp. 251-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mads Meier Jæger
Keyword(s):  
Church Attendance ◽  
Religious Denomination ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Social Survey ◽  
Aggregated Data ◽  
International Social Survey Programme ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
High Share ◽  
International Social

Aggregated data on regions within countries have been used to analyze the effect of religion and religiosity on aggregate support for redistribution. The data are from the International Social Survey Programme and a panel data set was constructed at the level of regions that were observed several times over the period 1985–2010. Empirical analyses show that a higher share of Catholics within a region has a positive effect on aggregate support for redistribution; a higher share of Protestants has a negative effect; religiosity (measured by church attendance) has no effect; and the effect of a religious denomination is non-linear and depends on whether or not it has a weak or a strong presence in a region. It was also found that Scandinavia is unusual in combining a high share of Protestants with high aggregate support for redistribution.

Impact of cancer- and patient-level factors on provider risk in the Oncology Care Model.

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e18852-e18852
Author(s):  
Basit Iqbal Chaudhry ◽  
Andrew Yue ◽  
Shuchita Kaila ◽  
Kay Sadik ◽  
Lisa Tran ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Domain Knowledge ◽  
Research Literature ◽  
Risk Exposure ◽  
Progression Rate ◽  
Cell Transplant ◽  
Care Model ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Patient Level ◽  
Oncology Care ◽  
The Impact

e18852 Background: Transferring financial risk from payers to providers to align incentives is central to value-based payment (VBP) reform, including Medicare’s Oncology Care Model (OCM). We simulated the impact of selected cancer- and patient-level factors on providers’ risk in OCM for multiple myeloma (MM), due to its clinical complexity. We hypothesize that risk exposure is sensitive to factors extrinsic to the OCM methodology, including clinical phenotype, disease state and progression rate. Methods: Simulation was used to address omitted variable bias in payer data. We developed 9 key clinical MM scenarios to examine provider risk, based on conceptual frameworks that included patient- and cancer-level factors. The model was parameterized using the Medicare limited data set, research literature and domain knowledge. Twenty factors were varied for each model, e.g. age, autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT). Results: Simulations results showed MM risk for providers depended highly on cancer and patient level factors (see table). For example, high-risk patients were on average $21.5K over target while undergoing ASCT (despite risk adjustment for ASCT) and $18-28K under target for follow on maintenance (maint.) episodes. Conclusions: Provider exposure to risk in OCM is highly sensitive to factors at the cancer and patient level. The distribution of clinical phenotypes, state of disease, and rate of disease progression can significantly impact risk exposure for providers in OCM. New methodologies that model risk in more clinically granular ways are needed to improve VBP in oncology. [Table: see text]

On Universals

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Etienne Balibar
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
Multiple Modernities ◽  
Contemporary Politics ◽  
Revolutionary Politics ◽  
The Future ◽  
Within Subjects ◽  
The Common ◽  
Performative Contradiction

Many on the Left have looked upon “universal” as a dirty word, one that signals liberalism's failure to recognize the masculinist and Eurocentric assumptions from which it proceeds. In rejecting universalism, we have learned to reorient politics around particulars, positionalities, identities, immanence, and multiple modernities. This book builds on these critiques of the tacit exclusions of Enlightenment thought, while at the same time working to rescue and reinvent what universal claims can offer for a revolutionary politics answerable to the common. In the contemporary quarrel of universals, the book shows, the stakes are no less than the future of our democracies. The book investigates the paradoxical processes by which the universal is constructed and deconstructed, instituted and challenged, in modern society. It shows that every statement and institution of the universal—such as declarations of human rights—carry an exclusionary, particularizing principle within themselves and that every universalism immediately falls prey to countervailing universalisms. Always equivocal and plural, the universal is thus a persistent site of conflict within societies and within subjects themselves. And yet, the book suggests, the very conflict of the universal—constituted as an ever-unfolding performative contradiction—also provides the emancipatory force needed to reinvigorate and reimagine contemporary politics and philosophy. In conversation with a range of thinkers from Marx, Freud, and Benjamin through Foucault, Derrida, and Scott, the book shows the power that resides not in the adoption of a single universalism but in harnessing the energies made available by claims to universality in order to establish a common answerable to difference.

Forecast of the efficiency confidence interval of decision-making units in data envelopment analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (02) ◽  
pp. 431-445
Author(s):  
Azarnoosh Kafi ◽  
Behrouz Daneshian ◽  
Mohsen Rostamy-Malkhalifeh ◽  
Mohsen Rostamy-Malkhalifeh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Data Envelopment Analysis ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Data Envelopment ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Interval Model ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Future ◽  
Decision Making Units

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a well-known method for calculating the efficiency of Decision-Making Units (DMUs) based on their inputs and outputs. When the data is known and in the form of an interval in a given time period, this method can calculate the efficiency interval. Unfortunately, DEA is not capable of forecasting and estimating the efficiency confidence interval of the units in the future. This article, proposes a efficiency forecasting algorithm along with 95% confidence interval to generate interval data set for the next time period. What’s more, the manager’s opinion inserts and plays its role in the proposed forecasting model. Equipped with forecasted data set and with respect to data set from previous periods, the efficiency for the future period can be forecasted. This is done by proposing a proposed model and solving it by the confidence interval method. The proposed method is then implemented on the data of an automotive industry and, it is compared with the Monte Carlo simulation methods and the interval model. Using the results, it is shown that the proposed method works better to forecast the efficiency confidence interval. Finally, the efficiency and confidence interval of 95% is calculated for the upcoming period using the proposed model.

Records of the World Tourism Conference (English version)

1985 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Modern Society ◽  
Working Time ◽  
Free Time ◽  
English Version ◽  
Human Community ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Travel Industry ◽  
The Way

The World Tourism Conference, held in Manila from 27 September to 10 October 1980, proved that the human community is still able to think generously and clearly, and to hold a courageous vision of the future. The Conference was convened to examine a subject which would lead to modification of outmoded concepts and practices, and would induce governments as well as the travel industry to reconsider all of their activities in the tourism sector. The Manila conference was able to show the way to build for the future in a field – that of free time and leisure – which is becoming one of the important responsibilities of governments, as non-working time increases in relation to working time because of the transformations that modern society is undergoing.

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