scholarly journals Climate change in Brazil: perspective on the biogeochemistry of inland waters

2012 ◽  
Vol 72 (3 suppl) ◽  
pp. 709-722 ◽  
Author(s):  
F Roland ◽  
VLM Huszar ◽  
VF Farjalla ◽  
A Enrich-Prast ◽  
AM Amado ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Landscape Fragmentation ◽  
Water Bodies ◽  
Inland Waters ◽  
Running Waters ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Natural Lakes

Although only a small amount of the Earth's water exists as continental surface water bodies, this compartment plays an important role in the biogeochemical cycles connecting the land to the atmosphere. The territory of Brazil encompasses a dense river net and enormous number of shallow lakes. Human actions have been heavily influenced by the inland waters across the country. Both biodiversity and processes in the water are strongly driven by seasonal fluvial forces and/or precipitation. These macro drivers are sensitive to climate changes. In addition to their crucial importance to humans, inland waters are extremely rich ecosystems, harboring high biodiversity, promoting landscape equilibrium (connecting ecosystems, maintaining animal and plant flows in the landscape, and transferring mass, nutrients and inocula), and controlling regional climates through hydrological-cycle feedback. In this contribution, we describe the aquatic ecological responses to climate change in a conceptual perspective, and we then analyze the possible climate-change scenarios in different regions in Brazil. We also indentify some potential biogeochemical signals in running waters, natural lakes and man-made impoundments. The possible future changes in climate and aquatic ecosystems in Brazil are highly uncertain. Inland waters are pressured by local environmental changes because of land uses, landscape fragmentation, damming and diversion of water bodies, urbanization, wastewater load, and level of pollutants can alter biogeochemical patterns in inland waters over a shorter term than can climate changes. In fact, many intense environmental changes may enhance the effects of changes in climate. Therefore, the maintenance of key elements within the landscape and avoiding extreme perturbation in the systems are urgent to maintain the sustainability of Brazilian inland waters, in order to prevent more catastrophic future events.

scholarly journals Mapping current and potential future distributions of the oak tree (Quercus aegilops) in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabaz R. Khwarahm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Oak Tree

Abstract Background The oak tree (Quercus aegilops) comprises ~ 70% of the oak forests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Besides its ecological importance as the residence for various endemic and migratory species, Q. aegilops forest also has socio-economic values—for example, as fodder for livestock, building material, medicine, charcoal, and firewood. In the KRI, Q. aegilops has been degrading due to anthropogenic threats (e.g., shifting cultivation, land use/land cover changes, civil war, and inadequate forest management policy) and these threats could increase as climate changes. In the KRI and Iraq as a whole, information on current and potential future geographical distributions of Q. aegilops is minimal or not existent. The objectives of this study were to (i) predict the current and future habitat suitability distributions of the species in relation to environmental variables and future climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070); and (ii) determine the most important environmental variables controlling the distribution of the species in the KRI. The objectives were achieved by using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) algorithm, available records of Q. aegilops, and environmental variables. Results The model demonstrated that, under the RCP2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the distribution ranges of Q. aegilops would be reduced by 3.6% (1849.7 km2) and 3.16% (1627.1 km2), respectively. By contrast, the species ranges would expand by 1.5% (777.0 km2) and 1.7% (848.0 km2), respectively. The distribution of the species was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the distribution would shift toward higher altitudes. Conclusions The results suggest (i) a significant suitable habitat range of the species will be lost in the KRI due to climate change by 2070 and (ii) the preference of the species for cooler areas (high altitude) with high annual precipitation. Conservation actions should focus on the mountainous areas (e.g., by establishment of national parks and protected areas) of the KRI as climate changes. These findings provide useful benchmarking guidance for the future investigation of the ecology of the oak forest, and the categorical current and potential habitat suitability maps can effectively be used to improve biodiversity conservation plans and management actions in the KRI and Iraq as a whole.

scholarly journals Temperature alters the physiological response of spiny lobsters under predation risk

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Felipe A Briceño ◽  
Quinn P Fitzgibbon ◽  
Elias T Polymeropoulos ◽  
Iván A Hinojosa ◽  
Gretta T Pecl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Predation Risk ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Metabolic Rates ◽  
Energetic Costs ◽  
Predator Prey ◽  
Predator Prey Model ◽  
Spiny Lobsters

Abstract Predation risk can strongly shape prey ecological traits, with specific anti-predator responses displayed to reduce encounters with predators. Key environmental drivers, such as temperature, can profoundly modulate prey energetic costs in ectotherms, although we currently lack knowledge of how both temperature and predation risk can challenge prey physiology and ecology. Such uncertainties in predator–prey interactions are particularly relevant for marine regions experiencing rapid environmental changes due to climate change. Using the octopus (Octopus maorum)–spiny lobster (Jasus edwardsii) interaction as a predator–prey model, we examined different metabolic traits of sub adult spiny lobsters under predation risk in combination with two thermal scenarios: ‘current’ (20°C) and ‘warming’ (23°C), based on projections of sea-surface temperature under climate change. We examined lobster standard metabolic rates to define the energetic requirements at specific temperatures. Routine metabolic rates (RMRs) within a respirometer were used as a proxy of lobster activity during night and day time, and active metabolic rates, aerobic scope and excess post-exercise oxygen consumption were used to assess the energetic costs associated with escape responses (i.e. tail-flipping) in both thermal scenarios. Lobster standard metabolic rate increased at 23°C, suggesting an elevated energetic requirement (39%) compared to 20°C. Unthreatened lobsters displayed a strong circadian pattern in RMR with higher rates during the night compared with the day, which were strongly magnified at 23°C. Once exposed to predation risk, lobsters at 20°C quickly reduced their RMR by ~29%, suggesting an immobility or ‘freezing’ response to avoid predators. Conversely, lobsters acclimated to 23°C did not display such an anti-predator response. These findings suggest that warmer temperatures may induce a change to the typical immobility predation risk response of lobsters. It is hypothesized that heightened energetic maintenance requirements at higher temperatures may act to override the normal predator-risk responses under climate-change scenarios.

scholarly journals Coupled Wave-2D Hydrodynamics Modeling at the Reno River Mouth (Italy) under Climate Change Scenarios

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Gabriella Gaeta ◽  
Davide Bonaldo ◽  
Achilleas G. Samaras ◽  
Sandro Carniel ◽  
Renata Archetti
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Open Source ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Adriatic Sea ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
River Mouth ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Coupled Wave

This work presents the results of the numerical study implemented for the natural area of Lido di Spina, a touristic site along the Italian coast of the North Adriatic Sea, close to the mouth of River Reno. High-resolution simulations of nearshore dynamics are carried out under climate change conditions estimated for the site. The adopted modeling chain is based on the implementation of multiple-nested, open-source numerical models. More specifically, the coupled wave-2D hydrodynamics runs, using the open-source TELEMAC suite, are forced at the offshore boundary by waves resulting from the wave model (SWAN) simulations for the Adriatic Sea, and sea levels computed following a joint probability analysis approach. The system simulates present-day scenarios, as well as conditions reflecting the high IPCC greenhouse concentration trajectory named RCP8.5 under predicted climate changes. Selection of sea storms directed from SE (Sirocco events) and E–NE (Bora events) is performed together with Gumbel analysis, in order to define ordinary and extreme sea conditions. The numerical results are here presented in terms of local parameters such as wave breaking position, alongshore currents intensity and direction and flooded area, aiming to provide insights on how climate changes may impact hydrodynamics at a site scale. Although the wave energy intensity predicted for Sirocco events is expected to increase only slightly, modifications of the wave dynamics, current patterns, and inland flooding induced by climate changes are expected to be significant for extreme conditions, especially during Sirocco winds, with an increase in the maximum alongshore currents and in the inundated area compared to past conditions.

scholarly journals Evaluation of future hydrological cycle under climate change scenarios in a mesoscale Alpine watershed of Italy

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1769-1785 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Groppelli ◽  
A. Soncini ◽  
D. Bocchiola ◽  
R. Rosso
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Precipitation Patterns ◽  
Alpine Watershed ◽  
Flow Variables

Abstract. We investigate future (2045–2054) hydrological cycle of the snow fed Oglio (≈1800 km2) Alpine watershed in Northern Italy. A Stochastic Space Random Cascade (SSRC) approach is used to downscale future precipitation from three general circulation models, GCMs (PCM, CCSM3, and HadCM3) available within the IPCC's data base and chosen for this purpose based upon previous studies. We then downscale temperature output from the GCMs to obtain temperature fields for the area. We also consider a projected scenario based upon trends locally observed in former studies, LOC scenario. Then, we feed the downscaled fields to a minimal hydrological model to build future hydrological scenarios. We provide projected flow duration curves and selected flow descriptors, giving indication of expected modified (against control run for 1990–1999) regime of low flows and droughts and flood hazard, and thus evaluate modified peak floods regime through indexed flood. We then assess the degree of uncertainty, or spread, of the projected water resources scenarios by feeding the hydrological model with ensembles projections consistent with our deterministic (GCMs + LOC) scenarios, and we evaluate the significance of the projected flow variables against those observed in the control run. The climate scenarios from the adopted GCMs differ greatly from one another with respect to projected precipitation amount and temperature regimes, and so do the projected hydrological scenarios. A relatively good agreement is found upon prospective shrinkage and shorter duration of the seasonal snow cover due to increased temperature patterns, and upon prospective increase of hydrological losses, i.e. evapotranspiration, for the same reason. However, precipitation patterns are less consistent, because HadCM3 and PCM models project noticeably increased precipitation for 2045–2054, whereas CCSM3 provides decreased precipitation patterns therein. The LOC scenario instead displays unchanged precipitation. The ensemble simulations indicate that several projected flow variables under the considered scenarios are significantly different from their control run counterparts, and also that snow cover seems to significantly decrease in duration and depth. The proposed hydrological scenarios eventually provide a what-if analysis, giving a broad view of the possible expected impacts of climate change within the Italian Alps, necessary to trigger the discussion about future adaptation strategies.

scholarly journals Groundwater Nitrate Contamination Integrated Modeling for Climate and Water Resources Scenarios: The Case of Lake Karla Over-Exploited Aquifer

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pantelis Sidiropoulos ◽  
Georgios Tziatzios ◽  
Lampros Vasiliades ◽  
Nikitas Mylopoulos ◽  
Athanasios Loukas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Modeling Tools

Groundwater quantity and quality degradation by agricultural practices is recorded as one of the most critical issues worldwide. This is explained by the fact that groundwater is an important component of the hydrological cycle, since it is a source of natural enrichment for rivers, lakes, and wetlands and constitutes the main source of potable water. The need of aquifers simulation, taking into account water resources components at watershed level, is imperative for the choice of appropriate restoration management practices. An integrated water resources modeling approach, using hydrological modeling tools, is presented for assessing the nitrate fate and transport on an over-exploited aquifer with intensive and extensive agricultural activity under various operational strategies and future climate change scenarios. The results indicate that climate change affects nitrates concentration in groundwater, which is likely to be increased due to the depletion of the groundwater table and the decrease of groundwater enrichment in the future water balance. Application of operational agricultural management practices with the construction and use of water storage infrastructure tend to compensate the groundwater resources degradation due to climate change impacts.

Emerging climate changes and the risks to the operation of building assets in the UK

2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullah Alzahrani ◽  
Halim Boussabaine ◽  
Ali Nasser Alzaed
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Climate Change Risks ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to report results from a survey on emerging climate changes and the risks to the operation of building assets in the UK. The property sector is facing major challenges as a result of projected climate change scenarios. Predictions concerning future climate change and the subsequent impact on building operations are still subject to a high degree of uncertainty. However, it is important that building stockholders consider a range of possible future risks that may influence the operation of their assets. Design/methodology/approach – The literature review and questionnaire are used to elicit and assess the likelihood of occurrence of climate change risks impacting building operations. The survey was carried out among building stockowners and professionals in the UK. Statistical methods were used to rank and compare the findings. Findings – The majority of the respondents strongly agreed that the list of risks that were elicited from the literature will have an impact on their building assets within a 0-5 years’ time horizon. It was found that the professionals were most concerned about higher energy prices and an increase in operation costs in general; they were least concerned about an electricity blackout. Research limitations/implications – This paper is limited to the UK, and regional variations are not explored. Nevertheless, the buildings’ operation risk study provides a starting point for further investigations into the emerging risks from climate change, and their impact on the operation of building stock. Future work could investigate direct mapping between climate risks and the financial value of properties. Originality/value – Findings of this paper can help professionals and building stockowners improve their understanding of climate change risks and the impact on their assets. This paper could also help these individuals to formulate appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies.

The response of Bonis Catchment in Calabria –Southern Italy to different management options under climate change scenarios.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mouna Feki ◽  
Giovanni Ravazzani ◽  
Tommaso Caloiero ◽  
Gaetano Pellicone
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Mountain Area ◽  
Small Catchment

<p>Forests ecosystems provide several ecosystem services among which the regulation of the hydrological cycle. These ecosystems are exposed to different forms of disturbances induced by human activities, management strategies, and climate change. The objective of INNOMED project, for the Italian case study, is to understand the response of forest to different silvicultural practices under climate change conditions. The study site is the the Bonis catchment located in the mountain area of Sila Greca (39°25’15’’N, 16°12’38’’W), in the Calabria region (southern Italy). This small catchment has a surface of 1.39 km<sup>2</sup> and a mean elevation of 1131 m above sea level. Almost 93% of the total area is covered by forest stand, dominated by about 50-year-old Calabrian pine (Pinus laricio Poiret) forests. In order to simulate the response of the catchment to different climate and management scenarios, FEST-WB distributed hydrological model was used. Within the framework of this project, FEST-FOREST module has been implemented in order to consider vegetation dynamics interactions with the hydrological response of the watershed. Since 1986, the basin was monitored through the installation of different instruments. Rainfall was measured by three rain gauges (with a tipping bucket) together with temperature that were measured at three different meteorological stations. In May 2003, a tower for measurement of eddy fluxes was installed at an altitude of 1100 m a.s.l, on a 54 years old plantation of Laricio pine which allowed monitoring of other parameters. Runoff was measured at the outlet of the catchment using a gauging structure. These data were used for the calibration and validation of the model before being implemented for future scenarios simulations. The results of these simulations delivered the potential impacts and the vulnerability of the Bonis catchment to different scenarios. These outcomes provide for the stakeholders a scientifically based and solid information for a sustainable management of the catchment.</p>

Impacts of the climate change on runoff and diffuse phosphorus load to Lake Balaton (Hungary)

2009 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 417-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Á. Kovács ◽  
A. Clement
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Urban Runoff ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Phosphorus Concentration ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Lake Balaton ◽  
Phosphorus Load ◽  
The Impact

The paper outlines a multi-component assessment of the impacts of the climate change on runoff and total phosphorus loads to the large shallow Lake Balaton in Hungary. Present hydrological cycle of the lake catchment has been examined using the rainfall-runoff model WetSpa. Particular phosphorus concentration in runoff was estimated on the basis of the simulated streamflow using an empirical power equation. Dissolved phosphorus concentrations were determined as a function of landuse and soil type of the corresponding sub-catchment. The model was calibrated and validated against daily observations manually at monitoring sites of sixteen inflowing streams around the lake. Runoff stemming from shoreline urban developments was calculated by the urban runoff simulation model SWMM. Phosphorus concentrations in urban runoff were calculated by an empirical relationship derived from field measurements. The model was henceforward run for climate change scenario analysis. Present weather data were modified by the climate change scenarios imported from the results of the CLIME project. The results indicate that the impact of the climate change on runoff and phosphorus load appears in the change of the distribution within a time period rather than in the total volume. However, due to the high uncertainties in climate models, the presented calculations are possible assumptions rather than established statements.

scholarly journals Reservoir yield intercomparison of large dams in Jaguaribe Basin-CE in climate change scenarios

RBRH ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Renato de Oliveira Fernandes ◽  
Cleiton da Silva Silveira ◽  
Ticiana Marinho de Carvalho Studart ◽  
Francisco de Assis de Souza Filho
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Great Divergence ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Reservoir Yield

ABSTRACT Climate changes can have different impacts on water resources. Strategies to adapt to climate changes depend on impact studies. In this context, this study aimed to estimate the impact that changes in precipitation, projected by Global Circulation Models (GCMs) in the fifth report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5) may cause on reservoir yield (Q90) of large reservoirs (Castanhão and Banabuiú), located in the Jaguaribe River Basin, Ceará. The rainfall data are from 20 GCMs using two greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The precipitation projections were used as input data for the rainfall-runoff model (SMAP) and, after the reservoirs’ inflow generation, the reservoir yields were simulated in the AcquaNet model, for the time periods of 2040-2069 and 2070-2099. The results were analyzed and presented a great divergence, in sign (increase or decrease) and in the magnitude of change of Q90. However, most Q90 projections indicated reduction in both reservoirs, for the two periods, especially at the end of the 21th century.

scholarly journals Macrofaunal diversity gradients in Antarctic rocky benthic communities: Effects of glaciers and depth

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis Miguel Pardo ◽  
Ignacio Garrido ◽  
Paulina Bruning ◽  
Charlotte Carrier ◽  
Rossana Reveco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Diversity ◽  
Salinity Tolerance ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Anthropogenic Impacts ◽  
Benthic Communities ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rocky Subtidal ◽  
Diversity Gradients

Western Antarctic shows one of the fastest responses to climate change on Earth. Glacier meltdown and freshening are perhaps the most conspicuous evidence of anthropogenic impacts, that together with ice scouring can strongly modify benthic communities. The spatial extension of these impacts has been rarely explored in rocky subtidal environments. This study describes changes in benthic communities across glacier and bathymetric gradient in Fildes Bay, Antarctica. Suction samples were taken from four sites at increasing distance from the Collin glacier (0 - 2.5 – 5 - 7 km) and three depths (5 – 10 - 15 m). Macrofaunal diversity increased with depth across all distances from the glacier; these changes were associated with the increase in diversity of amphipods and echinoderms. The lowest and highest species diversity occurred at zero and two km from the glacier, indicating a strong, but localized, glacier effect. Variation in salinity tolerance and the abundance of key habitat forming algae could explain the spatial variation in these communities. This result remarks the importance of facilitation as a structuring force in Antarctic benthic communities. We suggest that the fate of communities in future climate-change scenarios will depend on how habitat-forming species respond to these environmental changes.

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