scholarly journals The Global Transmission of Real Economic Uncertainty

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1315) ◽  
pp. 1-41
Author(s):  
Juan M. Londono ◽  
◽  
Sai Ma ◽  
Beth Anne Wilson ◽  
◽  
...  

Using a sample of 30 countries representing about 65% of the global GDP, we find that real economic uncertainty (REU) has negative long-lasting domestic economic effects and transmits across countries. The international spillover effects of REU are (i) additional to those of domestic REUs, (ii) statistically significant, and (iii) economically meaningful. Trade ties play a key role in explaining why uncertainty generated in one country can affect economic outcomes in other countries. Based on this evidence, we construct a novel index for global REU as the trade-weighted average of all countries' REUs. We disentangle the effects of the domestic and foreign components of global REU and find that, on average, innovations to the foreign component can contribute up to 28% of the future variation in domestic industrial production, with the effect being disproportionately larger on its manufacturing component, the component contributing the most to the tradable goods sector, than on its retail sales component.

2020 ◽  
pp. 79-92
Author(s):  
Burhanettin Duran

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the domestic and foreign policy agendas of all countries have been turned upside down. The pandemic has brought new problems and competition areas to states and to the international system. While the pandemic politically calls to mind the post-World War II era, it can also be compared with the 2008 crisis due to its economic effects such as unemployment and the disruption of global supply chains. A debate immediately began for a new international system; however, it seems that the current international system will be affected, but will not experience a radical change. That is, a new international order is not expected, while disorder is most likely in the post-pandemic period. In an atmosphere of global instability where debates on the U.S.-led international system have been worn for a while, in the post-pandemic period states will invest in self-sufficiency and redefine their strategic areas, especially in health security. The decline of U.S. leadership, the challenging policies of China, the effects of Chinese policies on the U.S.-China relations and the EU’s deepening crisis are going to be the main discussion topics that will determine the future of the international system.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3017
Author(s):  
Elias Dörre ◽  
Sebastian Pfaffel ◽  
Alexander Dreher ◽  
Pedro Girón ◽  
Svenja Heising ◽  
...  

Energy generation and consumption in the power grid must be balanced at every single moment. Within the synchronous area of continental Europe, flexible generators and loads can provide Frequency Containment Reserve and Frequency Restoration Reserve marketed through the balancing markets. The Transmission System Operators use these flexibilities to maintain or restore the grid frequency when there are deviations. This paper shows the future flexibility potential of Germany’s household sector, in particular for single-family and twin homes in 2025 and 2030 with the assumption that households primarily optimize their self-consumption. The primary focus is directed to the flexibility potential of Electric Vehicles, Heat Pumps, Photovoltaics and Battery Storage Systems. A total of 10 different household system configurations were considered and combined in a weighted average based on the scenario framework of the German Grid Development Plan. The household generation, consumption and storage units were simulated in a mixed-integer linear programming model to create the time series for the self-consumption optimized households. This solved the unit commitment problem for each of the decentralized households in their individual configurations. Finally, the individual household flexibilities were evaluated and then aggregated to a Germany-wide flexibility profile for single-family and twin homes. The results indicate that the household sector can contribute significantly to system stabilization with an average potential of 30 negative and 3 positive flexibility in 2025. In 2030, the corresponding flexibilities potentially increase to 90 and 30 , respectively. This underlines that considerable flexibility reserves could be provided by single-family and twin homes in the future.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 2815
Author(s):  
Francesca Varia ◽  
Dario Macaluso ◽  
Ida Agosta ◽  
Francesco Spatafora ◽  
Giovanni Dara Guccione

In recent years, after the publication of Regulation (EU) 2018/848 on organic production and the labelling of organic products, all stakeholders have been considering threats and opportunities in the development of the organic food and beverage sector. The aim of the study outlined in this paper was to analyse the development prospects of the Italian organic wine sector in light of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) environmental and climate objectives. Specifically, the study focussed on applying a System Dynamics Approach (SDA) and a Network Analysis in order to explain how the most relevant social–economic determinants of the national organic wine sector are in all likelihood influencing the hoped-for shift from conventional to organic production. Such conversion appeared to be worth exploring because, despite the increasing global demand for organic wine, the economic effects on the entire system are still somewhat unclear from a dynamic perspective. The results of the study clearly demonstrated that public policies and regulatory actions at the national and European level will continue to be very influential for the future of the national organic wine system. Different development pathways, such as groups of operators and the adoption of the new national certification system for the sustainability of the entire wine supply chain, should be undertaken by Italian “small wine operators” in order to gain international markets.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Erhan Mugaloglu ◽  
Ali Yavuz Polat ◽  
Hasan Tekin ◽  
Edanur Kılıç

PurposeThis study aims to measure economic uncertainty in Turkey by a novel economic uncertainty index (EUI) employing principal component analysis (PCA). We assess the impact of Covid-19 pandemic in Turkey with our constructed uncertainty index.Design/methodology/approachIn order to obtain the EUI, this study employs a dimension reduction method of PCA using 14 macroeconomic indicators that spans from January 2011 to July 2020. The first principal component is picked as a proxy for the economic uncertainty in Turkey which explains 52% of total variation in entire sample. In the second part of our analysis, with our constructed EUI we conduct a structural vector autoregressions (SVAR) analysis simulating the Covid-19-induced uncertainty shock to the real economy.FindingsOur EUI sensitively detects important economic/political events in Turkey as well as Covid-19-induced uncertainty rising to extremely high levels during the outbreak. Our SVAR results imply a significant decline in economic activity and in the sub-indices as well. Namely, industrial production drops immediately by 8.2% and cumulative loss over 8 months will be 15% on average. The losses in the capital and intermediate goods are estimated to be 18 and 25% respectively. Forecast error variance decomposition results imply that uncertainty shocks preserve its explanatory power in the long run, and intermediate goods production is more vulnerable to uncertainty shocks than overall industrial production and capital goods production.Practical implicationsThe results indicate that monetary and fiscal policy should aim to decrease uncertainty during Covid-19. Moreover, since investment expenditures are affected severely during the outbreak, policymakers should impose investment subsidies.Originality/valueThis is the first study constructing a novel EUI which sensitively captures the critical economic/political events in Turkey. Moreover, we assess the impact of Covid-19-driven uncertainty on Turkish Economy with a SVAR model.


2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (24) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarmo Pikner

Artikkel mõtestab kogemuspõhiste lugude kaudu kahaneva linna olemust, mida sageli määratletakse eelkõige majanduspoliitiliste katkestuste ja kahaneva rahvaarvu kaudu. Kahte autobiograafilist jutustust kõrvutav temaatiline sisuanalüüs toob esile Detroiti ja Narvaga seonduvad linnalisuse-kogemused, mis ilmestavad postindustriaalseid muutusi. Struktuurse kriisi kontekstualiseerimine linnade kahanemises näitab omakorda mitmeid linnaruumilisi kestvusi ja alternatiive otsivad kultuuripraktikaid. Linnalisuse ümbermõtestamine avaldub siin ruraalsete omaduste ja piiride esitamisega linnamaastikes. Ilukirjanduslike jutustuste ja nende kaudu esitatud lugude põimimine kahanevate linnade uurimusse võimaldab märgata kriisi mõjude ambivalentsust ning seejuures uurida kompleksset mitmesuunalist linnastumist.   The article analyses the characteristics and appearances of shrinking cities, which are too often framed in terms of structural economic ruptures and population decline. The notion of “structural crisis” needs to be contextualised in opening up diverse experiences of transformation in postindustrial urbanity. The study includes the literary stories represented in two books about the cities of Narva and Detroit:  Katri Raik’s Minu Narva (2013) and Francesca Berardi’s Detour in Detroit (2015). These autobiographical narratives were brought together along with qualitative content analysis, which focused on the emergent qualities of postindustrial cities: rurality, social change, political boundaries and trajectories of the future.      The books analysed represent the shrinking of cities as part of their story of evolution, although the focus is on contemporary situations.  This way of seeing adds the time dimension to changes of urban landscapes, working to observe possible trajectories of the future in on-going events. These autobiographical narratives about the cities’ sudden transformations articulate diverse experiences and practices connected to living together, with shrinking infrastructures and economic turbulence.  The shrinking city appears as an ambivalent assemblage, because wasteland and unlit silence generate affective fears for one person, but somebody else will associate these conditions with freedom of practice and of interpretation. The decline of industry as a marker of structural crisis flickers in the narrated landscapes. Beside this, lively initiatives are represented, which associate industrial decline with the potential for emergent new beginnings. Some possible solutions to the postindustrial crisis become entangled with changes in everyday streetscapes. The narratives indicate that there is no reason to view the cities’ shrinkage as a total crisis extending into all spheres of urban life.        Comparing these narratives about Detroit and Narva revealed similarities in the changes and in the experiences of the landscapes of the shrinking cities. The large-scale end of industrial production, the rapid decline of inhabitants and ethnic segregation – these are shared aspects of the shrinkage and in Narva, post-socialist transformation is a further factor. Therefore, the context and crisis of post-industrial urbanity evolve through diverse glocal interactions. The narratives show that global change and crisis inhabits particular places, and the search for solutions can lead to shifting urban characteristics. Reductions in municipal infrastructure made the cities more rural, so that such characteristics of dispersed settlements as silence, less lighting and growth of edible plants became widespread in them. Therefore, the framings of ‘nature’ and ‘rural’ in processes of post-industrial urbanity require more attention in future research. The (temporary) shrinkage renders visible coexistences between urbanity and nature-based practices, which problematize both the city as a form and the assumption that trends of global urbanisation are linear. The boundaries and borders that appear in different scales can be approached as spatial spheres of coexistence, which transform in the crisis and simultaneously try to reproduce social integrity. Geopolitical territories appear side by side with the shifting of meaningful boundaries in the streetscapes. In Narva, the nearness of the frontier came, through events, into the everyday lives of people, affecting situations and indicating possible alternatives. Border-making entanglements with geopolitical neighbours were not so important in Detroit’s narrative, but changes in the city were presented as a sensitive barometer offering understanding of wider post-industrial transformations. The experience-based and comparative approach to tendencies in the shrinking city indicated a slowness and temporal shift which exist in the middle of turbulence. This spatiotemporal shift exists with fragmentary infrastructures, which accumulate certain cultural practices and simultaneously push to find alternatives for the future.             These texts, with their diverse narratives, enrich the spectre of experience in approaching the tendencies displayed by shrinking cities. The situations and emotional affects represented in the stories can give important hints towards new methods for analysing and rethinking the tendencies summed up as the “shrinking city”. A contextual approach is needed to explain settings experiencing structural crisis, which often becomes to frame the shrinking cities. In the narratives analysed, the flickering post-industrial crisis appears alongside a combination of shifting cultural and economic tendencies, which as well as disturbances also generate spatial conditions and publics for re-inscription of political alternatives. Declining industrial production in cities is combined with diverse processes of shrinkage, change-seeking initiatives and durations of urban spaces, helping people cope with sudden turbulences and create meaningful places.    


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2910
Author(s):  
Yu Sang Chang ◽  
Byong-Jin You ◽  
Hann Earl Kim

Despite the fact that fine particulate matter (PM2.5) causes serious health issues, few studies have investigated the level and annual rate of PM2.5 change across a large number of countries. For a better understanding of the global trend of PM2.5, this study classified 190 countries into groups showing different trends of PM2.5 change during the 2000–2014 period by estimating the progress ratio (PR) from the experience curve (EC), with PM2.5 exposure (PME)–the population-weighted average annual concentration of PM2.5 to which a person is exposed—as the dependent variable and the cumulative energy consumption as the independent variable. The results showed a wide variation of PRs across countries: While the average PR for 190 countries was 96.5%, indicating only a moderate decreasing PME trend of 3.5% for each doubling of the cumulative energy consumption, a majority of 118 countries experienced a decreasing trend of PME with an average PR of 88.1%, and the remaining 72 countries displayed an increasing trend with an average PR of 110.4%. When two different types of EC, classical and kinked, were applied, the chances of possible improvement in the future PME could be suggested in the descending order as follows: (1) the 60 countries with an increasing classical slope; (2) the 12 countries with an increasing kinked slope; (3) the 75 countries with a decreasing classical slope; and (4) the 43 countries with a decreasing kinked slope. The reason is that both increasing classical and kinked slopes are more likely to be replaced by decreasing kinked slopes, while decreasing classical and kinked slopes are less likely to change in the future. Population size seems to play a role: A majority of 52%, or 38 out of the 72 countries with an increasing slope, had a population size of bigger than 10 million inhabitants. Many of these countries came from SSA, EAP, and LAC regions. By identifying different patterns of past trends based on the analysis of PME for individual countries, this study suggests a possible change of the future slope for different groups of countries.


2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (02) ◽  
pp. 203-235
Author(s):  
Shalini Talwar ◽  
Anmol Garg

OCV was seeking to improve its processes and enhance the skills of its analysts so as to provide valuable solutions for their clients in terms of the issues related to the profitability and risk of their existing business portfolios as well as the proposed new projects. A team was formed to evaluate if breaking down the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) to the divisional level could improve the quality of investment decisions by multi-division firms. ITC was chosen to analyse the entire process of breaking down WACC to the divisional level. The team had three distinct tasks to undertake. The first was the calculation of the divisional WACC for different business segments of ITC, the second was an extensive discussion on the issues that could arise in the complex computations, and the third was to take a final call on whether the breaking down of WACC to the divisional level would really add value to the future investment decisions.


2010 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 76-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marianne Babal

Abstract Public historians have long been putting history to work in meaningful ways, cultivating collaborative opportunities, building partnerships, and engaging with the public. In times of economic uncertainty, communicating the relevance of history and the work of historians is more important than ever. This article suggests ways to apply marketing communication principles to connect public historians with their audience. This article is a revised version of the presidential address delivered March 13, 2010 at the National Council on Public History's annual meeting in Portland, Oregon. Marking the thirtieth anniversary of the incorporation of NCPH, it recaps the origins and evolution of the organization over three decades, and proposes an action plan for its growth into the future.


2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 25-32
Author(s):  
Lauri Rapeli ◽  
Inga Saikkonen

In this commentary, we discuss some possible effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in both established and newer democracies. We expect that the pandemic will not have grave long-term effects on established democracies. We assess the future of democracy after COVID-19 in terms of immediate effects on current democratic leaders, and speculate on the long-term effects on support for democratic institutions and principles. We also discuss possible implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global trends in democratic backsliding. We predict that, in the short term, the repercussions of the pandemic can aggravate the situation in countries that are already experiencing democratic erosion. However, the long term economic effects of the pandemic may be more detrimental to non-democratic governance.


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