Meteorological Drought Analysis Using Global Climate Model and Drought Indicators in West of Iran
Abstract Climate change and global warming impact the frequency of droughts and supply systems. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct appropriate studies to evaluate the impact of climate change on weather patterns and drought. For this purpose, data from 6 synoptic stations located in the wet and temperate areas in the Zagros region in western Iran were used to construct four general atmospheric models including BCC-CSM1, CANESM2, HADGEM2-ES, NORESM1-M under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, for three future periods (2010-2039), (2040-2069) and (2070-2099). Then, spatio-temporal variations of drought severity and frequency were studied in the study area using SPI and SPEI indices in different periods up to 2100. The results showed the spatial extent of areas classified as extremely dry will increase by 47.9% in the first period compared to the base period. In the second and third periods, however, the severely dry class covers more area. Analysis of SPEI showed that drought will be more severe in all future periods. According to SPEI, drought frequency will increase by 2% according to the first period (2010-2039) relative to the base period (1984-2013), and by 0.3% in the second and third periods by 2099. The results of this study indicate that the severity, frequency, and impacts of drought will increase in the study area until the end of the century. Therefore, appropriate measures should be taken to control and reduce its potential effects in the future.