scholarly journals Modeling the COVID-19 Outbreak in India — with an Analysis of the Socio-Economic Scenario

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Debashis Saikia ◽  
Kalpana Bora ◽  
Madhurjya P Bora
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Incubation Period ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Transmission Time ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Modeling And Analysis ◽  
Federal States ◽  
The Past ◽  
Past Data

Abstract We present a modeling and analysis of the COVID-19 outbreak in India with an emphasis on the socio-economic composition, based on the progress of the pandemic in 11 federal states where the outbreak is the largest in terms of total number of infectives. Our model is based on the susceptible-exposed-infectives-removed (SEIR) model, including an asymptomatic transmission, time dependent incubation period and time dependent transmission rate. We carry out the analysis with the available disease data up to the end of August 2020, with a projection of 54 days into the months of September and October 2020, based on the past data. Overall, we have presented a projection up to 400 days (till April 18, 2021) for India. We also find the existence of a critical day, signifying a sudden shift in the transmission pattern of the disease, with interesting relation of the behavior of the pandemic with demographic and socio-economic parameters. The results of this work can be used as a future guidance to follow in case of similar pandemics in the developing countries.

scholarly journals Toward the Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions and Vaccination on the COVID-19 Pandemic With Time-Dependent SEIR Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuexin Li ◽  
Linqiang Ge ◽  
Yang Zhou ◽  
Xuan Cao ◽  
Jingyi Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
National Level ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
World Health ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

The outbreak of COVID-19, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) in March, 2020 and rapidly spread to over 210 countries and territories around the world. By December 24, there are over 77M cumulative confirmed cases with more than 1.72M deaths worldwide. To mathematically describe the dynamic of the COVID-19 pandemic, we propose a time-dependent SEIR model considering the incubation period. Furthermore, we take immunity, reinfection, and vaccination into account and propose the SEVIS model. Unlike the classic SIR based models with constant parameters, our dynamic models not only predicts the number of cases, but also monitors the trajectories of changing parameters, such as transmission rate, recovery rate, and the basic reproduction number. Tracking these parameters, we observe the significant decrease in the transmission rate in the U.S. after the authority announced a series of orders aiming to prevent the spread of the virus, such as closing non-essential businesses and lockdown restrictions. Months later, as restrictions being gradually lifted, we notice a new surge of infection emerges as the transmission rates show increasing trends in some states. Using our epidemiology models, people can track, timely monitor, and predict the COVID-19 pandemic with precision. To illustrate and validate our model, we use the national level data (the U.S.) and the state level data (New York and North Dakota), and the resulting relative prediction errors for the infected group and recovered group are mostly lower than 0.5%. We also simulate the long-term development of the pandemic based on our proposed models to explore when the crisis will end under certain conditions.

E-Projects Challenges in India – Role of Human Resource Management and Technology

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (8) ◽  
pp. 263
Author(s):  
Ramnik Kaur
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Public Administration ◽  
Paradigm Shift ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
The Public ◽  
Government Services ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Government ◽  
Traditional Approaches

E-governance is a paradigm shift over the traditional approaches in Public Administration which means rendering of government services and information to the public by using electronic means. In the past decades, service quality and responsiveness of the government towards the citizens were least important but with the approach of E-Government the government activities are now well dealt. This paper withdraws experiences from various studies from different countries and projects facing similar challenges which need to be consigned for the successful implementation of e-governance projects. Developing countries like India face poverty and illiteracy as a major obstacle in any form of development which makes it difficult for its government to provide e-services to its people conveniently and fast. It also suggests few suggestions to cope up with the challenges faced while implementing e-projects in India.

Overseas Development Administration. A Guide to Social Analysis for Projects in Developing Countries. London: HMSO. 1995. viii+248 pages. Hardbound. £18.95.

1996 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-190
Author(s):  
Mir Annice Mahmood
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Social Change ◽  
Practical Experience ◽  
Development Projects ◽  
Social Analysis ◽  
Economic Perspective ◽  
Human Environment ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Overseas Development

This book, hereinafter referred to as the Guide, has been developed for those social analysts (e.g., anthropologists, sociologists, and human geographers) who have had little or no practical experience in applying their knowledge as development practitioners. In the past, development projects would be analysed from a narrow financial and economic perspective. But with the evolution of thinking on development, this narrow financial and economic aspect has now been broadened to include the impact on society as the very meaning of development has now come to symbolise social change. Thus, development is not restricted only to plans and figures; the human environment in its entirety is now considered for analysis while designing and implementing development projects.

The Competitiveness of Capital-Goods Industries in Developing Countries

1968 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 226-239
Author(s):  
Barend A. De Vries
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Capital Goods ◽  
The Past ◽  
Special Relevance

In the past two decades developing countries have invested an increasing proportion of their resources in new industries and the infrastructure needed to support them. Many of the new industries have been light, simple and con¬sumer-oriented. But a significant number of LDC's, mostly the larger or richer ones, have established heavy, more complex capital-goods industries. Both sectors of industry have been largely domestic-oriented, although there are some LDC's which have succeeded in sharply increasing their industrial exports, mostly of light and simple products. The absence of export success may, in itself, cast a doubt on the effici¬ency and competitiveness of the new industries. The question has been raised in several quarters whether, in fact, the resources spent on industrialization have been well spent or whether the LDC's could have achieved more growth—in domestic product or export earnings—by a different design of industrialization or by more emphasis on other sectors. These questions are of special relevance for the newly-established capital-goods industries, because:

Diversification propaganda work with foreign audiences

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (4(13)) ◽  
pp. 31-50
Author(s):  
Shiyu Zhang ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Strategic Partnership ◽  
The Past ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Relationship

Over the past decade, bilateral relations between China and Russia have attracted the attention of the whole world. As neighbors and rapidly developing countries, China and Russia are becoming increasingly important in the international arena. The strategic partnership and interaction between China and Russia occupy a significant place in the politics of both countries. Cooperation is developing dynamically in various fields, primarily in politics. After 2012, a change of government took place in China and Russia, which brought new changes to international relations. Studying the involvement of the media in this process can clarify their impact on international relations, in particular, their role in the relationship between China and Russia.

COVID-19 Italian and Europe Epidemic Evolution: A SEIR Model with Lockdown-Dependent Transmission Rate Based on Chinese Data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola Picchiotti ◽  
Monica Salvioli ◽  
Elena Zanardini ◽  
Francesco Missale
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Seir Model

scholarly journals Fractional SIR-Model for Estimating Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in India

J ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 86-100
Author(s):  
Nita H. Shah ◽  
Ankush H. Suthar ◽  
Ekta N. Jayswal ◽  
Ankit Sikarwar
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Contact Rate ◽  
Distribution Maps ◽  
Fundamental Parameters ◽  
Different Order ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

In this article, a time-dependent susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model is constructed to investigate the transmission rate of COVID-19 in various regions of India. The model included the fundamental parameters on which the transmission rate of the infection is dependent, like the population density, contact rate, recovery rate, and intensity of the infection in the respective region. Looking at the great diversity in different geographic locations in India, we determined to calculate the basic reproduction number for all Indian districts based on the COVID-19 data till 7 July 2020. By preparing district-wise spatial distribution maps with the help of ArcGIS 10.2, the model was employed to show the effect of complete lockdown on the transmission rate of the COVID-19 infection in Indian districts. Moreover, with the model's transformation to the fractional ordered dynamical system, we found that the nature of the proposed SIR model is different for the different order of the systems. The sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number is done graphically which forecasts the change in the transmission rate of COVID-19 infection with change in different parameters. In the numerical simulation section, oscillations and variations in the model compartments are shown for two different situations, with and without lockdown.

scholarly journals Impact of public health interventions to curb SARS-CoV-2 spread assessed by an evidence-educated Delphi panel and tailored SEIR model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernd Brüggenjürgen ◽  
Hans-Peter Stricker ◽  
Lilian Krist ◽  
Miriam Ortiz ◽  
Thomas Reinhold ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Latency Period ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Delphi Panel ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Health Policy Decision ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Aim To use a Delphi-panel-based assessment of the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) in order to retrospectively approximate and to prospectively predict the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic progression via a SEIR model (susceptible, exposed, infectious, removed). Methods We applied an evidence-educated Delphi-panel approach to elicit the impact of NPIs on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate R0 in Germany. Effectiveness was defined as the product of efficacy and compliance. A discrete, deterministic SEIR model with time step of 1 day, a latency period of 1.8 days, duration of infectiousness of 5 days, and a share of the total population of 15% assumed to be protected by immunity was developed in order to estimate the impact of selected NPI measures on the course of the pandemic. The model was populated with the Delphi-panel results and varied in sensitivity analyses. Results Efficacy and compliance estimates for the three most effective NPIs were as follows: test and isolate 49% (efficacy)/78% (compliance), keeping distance 42%/74%, personal protection masks (cloth masks or other face masks) 33%/79%. Applying all NPI effectiveness estimates to the SEIR model resulted in a valid replication of reported occurrence of the German SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. A combination of four NPIs at consented compliance rates might curb the CoViD-19 pandemic. Conclusion Employing an evidence-educated Delphi-panel approach can support SARS-CoV-2 modelling. Future curbing scenarios require a combination of NPIs. A Delphi-panel-based NPI assessment and modelling might support public health policy decision making by informing sequence and number of needed public health measures.

scholarly journals A modified SEIR model to predict the behavior of the early stage in coronavirus and coronavirus-like outbreaks

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilfredo Angulo ◽  
José M. Ramírez ◽  
Dany De Cecchis ◽  
Juan Primera ◽  
Henry Pacheco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Molecular Structure ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Probable Site ◽  
Adjusted Model ◽  
The Impact

AbstractCOVID-19 is a highly infectious disease that emerged in China at the end of 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic is the first known pandemic caused by a coronavirus, namely, the new and emerging SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. In the present work, we present simulations of the initial outbreak of this new coronavirus using a modified transmission rate SEIR model that takes into account the impact of government actions and the perception of risk by individuals in reaction to the proportion of fatal cases. The parameters related to these effects were fitted to the number of infected cases in the 33 provinces of China. The data for Hubei Province, the probable site of origin of the current pandemic, were considered as a particular case for the simulation and showed that the theoretical model reproduces the behavior of the data, thus indicating the importance of combining government actions and individual risk perceptions when the proportion of fatal cases is greater than $$4\%$$ 4 % . The results show that the adjusted model reproduces the behavior of the data quite well for some provinces, suggesting that the spread of the disease differs when different actions are evaluated. The proposed model could help to predict outbreaks of viruses with a biological and molecular structure similar to that of SARS-CoV-2.

scholarly journals Modifying the network-based stochastic SEIR model to account for quarantine: an application to COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (s1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Groendyke ◽  
Adam Combs
Keyword(s):  
Network Model ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Contact Network ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Disease States ◽  
Potential Contact ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Infectious State

Abstract Objectives: Diseases such as SARS-CoV-2 have novel features that require modifications to the standard network-based stochastic SEIR model. In particular, we introduce modifications to this model to account for the potential changes in behavior patterns of individuals upon becoming symptomatic, as well as the tendency of a substantial proportion of those infected to remain asymptomatic. Methods: Using a generic network model where every potential contact exists with the same common probability, we conduct a simulation study in which we vary four key model parameters (transmission rate, probability of remaining asymptomatic, and the mean lengths of time spent in the exposed and infectious disease states) and examine the resulting impacts on various metrics of epidemic severity, including the effective reproduction number. We then consider the effects of a more complex network model. Results: We find that the mean length of time spent in the infectious state and the transmission rate are the most important model parameters, while the mean length of time spent in the exposed state and the probability of remaining asymptomatic are less important. We also find that the network structure has a significant impact on the dynamics of the disease spread. Conclusions: In this article, we present a modification to the network-based stochastic SEIR epidemic model which allows for modifications to the underlying contact network to account for the effects of quarantine. We also discuss the changes needed to the model to incorporate situations where some proportion of the individuals who are infected remain asymptomatic throughout the course of the disease.

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