scholarly journals Trends in Arctic seasonal and extreme precipitation in recent decades

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lejiang Yu ◽  
Shiyuan Zhong
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Ice Melt ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Water Vapor Feedback ◽  
Daily Precipitation Data ◽  
Autumn And Winter ◽  
Thermodynamic Processes

Abstract Daily precipitation data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-Interim) from 1979 to 2016 are analyzed to determine the trends in seasonal and extreme precipitation across the pan-Arctic and estimate the contributions to the trends from the dynamic (e.g. changes in circulation patterns) and thermodynamic processes (e.g., sea ice melt – water vapor feedback) and their interactions. The trends in the seasonal total precipitation are generally consistent with the trends in the occurrence of seasonal extreme precipitation. Although the trends vary considerably in direction and magnitude across the pan-Arctic and the seasons, more regions experience a statistically significant positive trend than negative trend, particularly in autumn and winter seasons and over areas of the Arctic Ocean and the northern North Atlantic. Statistically significant negative trends are mostly found in areas of northern Eurasian and North America. The thermodynamic processes account for more than 85% of the total trends, with the rest of the trends explained by the dynamic processes (e.g., changes in circulation patterns) and the interaction between dynamic and thermodynamic processes.

scholarly journals Features of Extreme Precipitation at Progress Station, Antarctica

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (22) ◽  
pp. 9087-9105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lejiang Yu ◽  
Qinghua Yang ◽  
Timo Vihma ◽  
Svetlana Jagovkina ◽  
Jiping Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Dynamic Processes ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Dipole Structure ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Daily Precipitation Data ◽  
Precipitation Events

Observed daily precipitation data were used to investigate the characteristics of precipitation at Antarctic Progress Station and synoptic patterns associated with extreme precipitation events during the period 2003–16. The annual precipitation, annual number of extreme precipitation events, and amount of precipitation during the extreme events have positive trends. The distribution of precipitation at Progress Station is heavily skewed with a long tail of extreme dry days and a high peak of extreme wet days. The synoptic pattern associated with extreme precipitation events is a dipole structure of negative and positive height anomalies to the west and east of Progress Station, respectively, resulting in water vapor advection to the station. For the first time, we apply self-organizing maps (SOMs) to examine thermodynamic and dynamic perspectives of trends in the frequency of occurrence of Antarctic extreme precipitation events. The changes in thermodynamic (noncirculation) processes explain 80% of the trend, followed by the changes in the interaction between thermodynamic and dynamic processes, which account for nearly 25% of the trend. The changes in dynamic processes make a negative (less than 5%) contribution to the trend. The positive trend in total column water vapor over the Southern Ocean explains the change of thermodynamic term.

scholarly journals The Nexus between Sea Ice and Polar Emissions of Marine Biogenic Aerosols

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert Gabric ◽  
Patricia Matrai ◽  
Graham Jones ◽  
Julia Middleton
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Marine Ecosystem ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Radiative Energy ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Ice Melt ◽  
Decadal Scale

AbstractAccurate estimation of the climate sensitivity requires a better understanding of the nexus between polar marine ecosystem responses to warming, changes in sea ice extent, and emissions of marine biogenic aerosol (MBA). Sea ice brine channels contain very high concentrations of MBA precursors that, once ventilated, have the potential to alter cloud microphysical properties, such as cloud droplet number, and the regional radiative energy balance. In contrast to temperate latitudes, where the pelagic phytoplankton are major sources of MBAs, the seasonal sea ice dynamic plays a key role in determining MBA concentration in both the Arctic and Antarctic. We review the current knowledge of MBA sources and the link between ice melt and emissions of aerosol precursors in the polar oceans. We illustrate the processes by examining decadal-scale time series in various satellite-derived parameters such as aerosol optical depth (AOD), sea ice extent, and phytoplankton biomass in the sea ice zones of both hemispheres. The sharpest gradients in aerosol indicators occur during the spring period of ice melt. In sea ice–covered waters, the peak in AOD occurs well before the annual maximum in biomass in both hemispheres. The results provide strong evidence that suggests seasonal changes in sea ice and ocean biology are key drivers of the polar aerosol cycle. The positive trend in annual-mean Antarctic sea ice extent is now almost one-third of the magnitude of the annual-mean decrease in Arctic sea ice, suggesting the potential for different patterns of aerosol emissions in the future.

scholarly journals Arctic sea ice melt onset favored by an atmospheric pressure pattern reminiscent of the North American-Eurasian Arctic pattern

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean Horvath ◽  
Julienne Stroeve ◽  
Balaji Rajagopalan ◽  
Alexandra Jahn
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
North American ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Melt ◽  
The North ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Downwelling Longwave Radiation

AbstractThe timing of melt onset in the Arctic plays a key role in the evolution of sea ice throughout Spring, Summer and Autumn. A major catalyst of early melt onset is increased downwelling longwave radiation, associated with increased levels of moisture in the atmosphere. Determining the atmospheric moisture pathways that are tied to increased downwelling longwave radiation and melt onset is therefore of keen interest. We employed Self Organizing Maps (SOM) on the daily sea level pressure for the period 1979–2018 over the Arctic during the melt season (April–July) and identified distinct circulation patterns. Melt onset dates were mapped on to these SOM patterns. The dominant moisture transport to much of the Arctic is enabled by a broad low pressure region stretching over Siberia and a high pressure over northern North America and Greenland. This configuration, which is reminiscent of the North American-Eurasian Arctic dipole pattern, funnels moisture from lower latitudes and through the Bering and Chukchi Seas. Other leading patterns are variations of this which transport moisture from North America and the Atlantic to the Central Arctic and Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Our analysis further indicates that most of the early and late melt onset timings in the Arctic are strongly related to the strong and weak emergence of these preferred circulation patterns, respectively.

scholarly journals Recent Arctic Ocean Surface Air Temperatures in Atmospheric Reanalyses and Numerical Simulations

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (10) ◽  
pp. 4347-4367
Author(s):  
Allison B. Marquardt Collow ◽  
Richard I. Cullather ◽  
Michael G. Bosilovich
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Central Arctic Ocean ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Autumn And Winter

AbstractSurface air temperatures have recently increased more rapidly in the Arctic than elsewhere in the world, but large uncertainty remains in the time series and trend. Over the data-sparse sea ice zone, the retrospective assimilation of observations in numerical reanalyses has been thought to offer a possible, but challenging, avenue for adequately reproducing the historical time series. Focusing on the central Arctic Ocean, output is analyzed from 12 reanalyses with a specific consideration of two widely used products: the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim, hereafter ERA-I). Among the reanalyses considered, a trend of 0.9 K decade−1 is indicated but with an uncertainty of 6%, and a large spread in mean values. There is a partitioning among those reanalyses that use fractional sea ice cover and those that employ a threshold, which are colder in winter by an average of 2 K but agree more closely with in situ observations. For reanalyses using fractional sea ice cover, discrepancies in the ice fraction in autumn and winter explain most of the differences in air temperature values. A set of experiments using the MERRA-2 background model using MERRA-2 and ERA-I sea ice and sea surface temperature indicates significant effects of boundary condition differences on air temperatures, and a preferential warm bias inherent in the MERRA-2 model sea ice representation. Differences between experiments and reanalyses suggest the available observations apply a significant constraint on reanalysis mean temperatures.

scholarly journals The Connection between Extreme Precipitation Variability over Monsoon Asia and Large-Scale Circulation Patterns

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1492
Author(s):  
Sunilkumar Khadgarai ◽  
Vinay Kumar ◽  
Prabodha Kumar Pradhan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Monsoon Asia ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Circulation Patterns

Spatial and temporal variability in precipitation has been dramatically changed due to climate variability and climate change over the global domain. Increasing in extreme precipitation events are pronounced in various regions, including monsoon Asia (MA) in recent decades. The present study evaluated precipitation variability in light of intensity, duration, and frequency with several extreme precipitation climate change indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI) over the MA region. This study uses an improved version (APHRO_V1901) of the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observation Data Integration Towards Evaluation of extreme events (APHRODITE-2) gridded rainfall product. Results showed that the spatial variability of the extreme precipitation climate change indices is reflected in the annual mean rainfall distribution in MA. Maximum one-day precipitation (R × 1) and precipitation contributed from extremes (R95) depict a peak in decadal mean rainfall values over topography regions. A significant positive trend in R × 1 (with a slope of 0.3 mm/yr) and precipitation greater than the 95th percentile (R95: with a slope of 0.5 mm/yr) are predominantly observed in decadal trends in regional average extreme precipitation climate change indices over MA. Maritime continental countries exhibit an inclined trend in R10, whereas central Asian arid regions show a decreasing tendency in continuous dry days (CDD). The positive trend in R95 is observed over central India, the monsoon region in China, countries that reside over the equator and some parts of Japan, and the Philippines. When comparing the influence of surface temperature (T) and total column water vapor (TCW) on precipitation climate change indices, TCW seems to be a crucial attributor to climate change indices meridional variability. The mutual correlation analysis depicts that precipitation contributed from extremes (R95) strongly correlates in terms of temporal variability with all extreme precipitation indices. Among various global circulation patterns, the prevalent conditions of sea surface temperature (SST) over the equatorial Pacific Ocean have a significant influence on decadal variability in extreme precipitation climate change indices. R10 and R95 possess a relatively significant correlation (0.86 and 0.91) with the Southern Oscillation Index. The maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) shows an increasing trend with a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index.

scholarly journals A warm jet in a cold ocean

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer A. MacKinnon ◽  
Harper L. Simmons ◽  
John Hargrove ◽  
Jim Thomson ◽  
Thomas Peacock ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The Arctic ◽  
Bering Strait ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Ice Melt ◽  
Beaufort Gyre ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Initial Evolution ◽  
Forecast Models

AbstractUnprecedented quantities of heat are entering the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean through Bering Strait, particularly during summer months. Though some heat is lost to the atmosphere during autumn cooling, a significant fraction of the incoming warm, salty water subducts (dives beneath) below a cooler fresher layer of near-surface water, subsequently extending hundreds of kilometers into the Beaufort Gyre. Upward turbulent mixing of these sub-surface pockets of heat is likely accelerating sea ice melt in the region. This Pacific-origin water brings both heat and unique biogeochemical properties, contributing to a changing Arctic ecosystem. However, our ability to understand or forecast the role of this incoming water mass has been hampered by lack of understanding of the physical processes controlling subduction and evolution of this this warm water. Crucially, the processes seen here occur at small horizontal scales not resolved by regional forecast models or climate simulations; new parameterizations must be developed that accurately represent the physics. Here we present novel high resolution observations showing the detailed process of subduction and initial evolution of warm Pacific-origin water in the southern Beaufort Gyre.

scholarly journals Attribution of the Recent Winter Sea Ice Decline over the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic Ocean*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (10) ◽  
pp. 4027-4033 ◽  
Author(s):  
Doo-Sun R. Park ◽  
Sukyoung Lee ◽  
Steven B. Feldstein
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Ir Radiation ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Sea Ice Decline ◽  
The Arctic Ocean

Abstract Wintertime Arctic sea ice extent has been declining since the late twentieth century, particularly over the Atlantic sector that encompasses the Barents–Kara Seas and Baffin Bay. This sea ice decline is attributable to various Arctic environmental changes, such as enhanced downward infrared (IR) radiation, preseason sea ice reduction, enhanced inflow of warm Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean, and sea ice export. However, their relative contributions are uncertain. Utilizing ERA-Interim and satellite-based data, it is shown here that a positive trend of downward IR radiation accounts for nearly half of the sea ice concentration (SIC) decline during the 1979–2011 winter over the Atlantic sector. Furthermore, the study shows that the Arctic downward IR radiation increase is driven by horizontal atmospheric water flux and warm air advection into the Arctic, not by evaporation from the Arctic Ocean. These findings suggest that most of the winter SIC trends can be attributed to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulations.

Comparative Analysis or Precipitation Variation Characteristics between Subtropical Monsoon Climate and Temperate Monsoon Climate-Take Changsha and Chengde for Example

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 1113-1122
Author(s):  
Bo Chen ◽  
Shi-jun Xu ◽  
Xin-ping Zhang ◽  
Yi Xie
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Average Precipitation ◽  
Autumn And Winter ◽  
Average Annual Precipitation

Using the methods of literature review, regression analysis and moving average, this paper selects the daily precipitation of Changsha and Chengde from 1951 to 1986 as samples, and analyzes the average precipitation, precipitation frequency, precipitation intensity, extreme precipitation time and other indicators of Changsha and Chengde from the perspective of interannual and seasonal changes Trends. The researches show that: the average precipitation of Changsha in the 36 years is 1151.2mm, spring is the wet season, autumn and winter are the dry seasons, and the maximum average precipitation is in spring; the average annual precipitation, precipitation frequency in spring, summer and winter, annual precipitation frequency, annual precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation events show a decreasing trend. The average annual precipitation of Chengde city is 454.1 mm, wet season in summer and dry season in spring, autumn and winter; the average annual precipitation, precipitation in four seasons, annual precipitation frequency, precipitation frequency in spring, autumn and winter, annual precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation events show a decreasing trend, while the precipitation frequency in summer shows an increasing trend. The study of regional climate change based on the time series data of this stage is of great significance to comprehensively understand the law of regional climate change and predict the future trend of climate change.

scholarly journals Diversity of Arctic pelagic <i>Bacteria</i> with an emphasis on photoheterotrophs: a review

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3309-3322 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Boeuf ◽  
F. Humily ◽  
C. Jeanthon
Keyword(s):  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Heterotrophic Bacteria ◽  
Euphotic Zone ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Major Influence ◽  
Distinctive Features ◽  
Ice Melt ◽  
Energy Needs ◽  
Continental Shelves ◽  
The Arctic Ocean

Abstract. The Arctic Ocean is a unique marine environment with respect to seasonality of light, temperature, perennial ice cover, and strong stratification. Other important distinctive features are the influence of extensive continental shelves and its interactions with Atlantic and Pacific water masses and freshwater from sea ice melt and rivers. These characteristics have major influence on the biological and biogeochemical processes occurring in this complex natural system. Heterotrophic bacteria are crucial components of marine food webs and have key roles in controlling carbon fluxes in the oceans. Although it was previously thought that these organisms relied on the organic carbon in seawater for all of their energy needs, several recent discoveries now suggest that pelagic bacteria can depart from a strictly heterotrophic lifestyle by obtaining energy through unconventional mechanisms that are linked to the penetration of sunlight into surface waters. These photoheterotrophic mechanisms may play a significant role in the energy budget in the euphotic zone of marine environments. Modifications of light and carbon availability triggered by climate change may favor the photoheterotrophic lifestyle. Here we review advances in our knowledge of the diversity of marine photoheterotrophic bacteria and discuss their significance in the Arctic Ocean gained in the framework of the Malina cruise.

scholarly journals Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Precipitation in Yungui Plateau during 1961-2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 ◽  
pp. 01021
Author(s):  
Wu Jianfeng ◽  
Yu Luqin ◽  
Cao Guangjie ◽  
Li Wei
Keyword(s):  
Linear Trend ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Guizhou Province ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Four Seasons ◽  
Daily Precipitation Data ◽  
Distribution Point ◽  
Autumn And Winter ◽  
Spatial Analysis Method

In this paper, the daily precipitation data of 19 meteorological stations in Guizhou Province from 1961 to 2015 are used. Using GIS spatial analysis method and linear trend analysis method, the distribution characteristics of annual and seasonal precipitation in Guizhou province were analyzed from space and time. The results show that: (1) From the perspective of spatial distribution, annual precipitation is generally less in the south and north and less in the east and west. The precipitation in winter and spring is east-west distribution and decreases from east to west in the four seasons. The precipitation in summer is roughly north-south and south-north less. The precipitation in autumn is mainly concentrated in southwest Guizhou and Chishui valley. (2) From the time distribution point of view, the precipitation in Guizhou Province showed a general downward trend, of which the precipitation in spring, autumn and winter showed a decreasing trend, the downward trend in autumn was more obvious, and the precipitation in summer increased but not obviously.

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