scholarly journals Exposure-lag Response of Air Temperature on COVID-19 Incidence in Italy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fang Chyi Fong ◽  
Michaela Louise Goodson ◽  
Daniel Robert Smith
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Cumulative Exposure ◽  
Optimum Temperature ◽  
Response Curves ◽  
Lag Effects ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Exposure Response ◽  
Outdoor Transmission ◽  
Linear Modelling

Abstract The exposure-lag response of air temperature on COVID-19 incidence is unclear and there have been concerns regarding the robustness of previous studies. Here we present an analysis of high spatial and temporal resolution using the distributed lag non-linear modelling (DLNM) framework. We first fit statistical models to select Italian cities, accounting for lag effects up to 10 days and several categories of potential confounders (policy, mobility, meteorological, and pollution variables). Estimates from these models are then synthesised using random effects meta-analysis to yield pooled estimates of the exposure-lag response presented as the relative risk (RR) and cumulative RR (RRcum). Though there was variation in the lag-specific exposure-response curves, the cumulative exposure response was approximately bell shaped, with highest risk at 19.8 °C, 2.39 [95% CI: 1.13; 2.94] times that at 4.7 °C which represented the lowest risk. Our work is in agreement with studies suggesting “lower” and “higher” temperatures might reduce covid-19 transmission, though our results suggest the optimum temperature for outdoor transmission might be higher than previously thought. Due to this uncertainty, our work underscores the need for facemasks and social distancing even in warm temperatures.

scholarly journals Delayed positive association between air temperature and covid-19 incidence in Italy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fang Chyi Fong ◽  
Michaela Louise Goodson ◽  
Daniel Robert Smith
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Latent Variables ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Response Curves ◽  
High Resolution Data ◽  
Lag Effects ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Relative Risks ◽  
Populations At Risk

Abstract The association between air temperature and covid-19 incidence is unclear, particularly regarding lag effects. Here we address this research gap using high resolution data from Italy. We obtained daily covid-19 cases, populations at risk, and mean daily air temperature from 97 Italian cities for the period 24 February through 21 September 2020. We fitted a mixed-effects distributed lag non-linear model, presenting the effects as relative risks (RR) and cumulative relative risks (RRcum).Negative increments in mean daily temperature produced approximately inverted U- shaped lag-responses, though for large positive increments in temperature, the peak RR occurred at the maximal lag of 14 days. The temperature exposure response curves generally showed an increased RR with increasing temperature, though the shape varied according to the lag period. Positive and negative increments in temperature caused increases and decreases in the RRcum respectively, though the plateau effect for negative increments was not observed above small positive increments in temperature.We postulate that latent variables correlated with temperature, such as frequency and duration of social activities, are the underlying cause of our observed trends. Nonetheless, our statistical model can be utilised to forecast cumulative covid-19 incidence rates assuming specified air temperature increments at the city level.

scholarly journals Climate factors driven typhus group rickettsiosis incidence dynamics in Xishuangbanna Dai autonomous prefecture of Yunnan province in China, 2005–2017

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuan Gao ◽  
Yanlin Niu ◽  
Wanwan Sun ◽  
Keke Liu ◽  
Xiaobo Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Cumulative Exposure ◽  
Lag Effects ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Epidemic Typhus ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Nonlinear Association

Abstract Background Typhus group rickettsiosis (TGR), which is a neglected vector-borne infectious disease, including epidemic typhus and endemic typhus. We explored the lag effects and nonlinear association between meteorological factors and TGR incidence in Xishuangbanna Dai autonomous prefecture from 2005 to 2017, China. Methods A Poisson regression with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was utilized to analyze TGR cases data and the contemporaneous meteorological data. Results A J-shaped nonlinear association between weekly mean temperature and TGR incidence was found. The cumulative exposure to weekly mean temperature indicated that the RR increased with the increment of temperature. Taking the median value as the reference, lower temperatures could decrease the risk of TGR incidence, while higher temperatures could increase the risk of TGR incidence and last for 21 weeks. We also found a reversed U-shaped nonlinear association between weekly mean precipitation and TGR incidence. Precipitation between 5 mm and 13 mm could increase the risk of TGR incidence. Taking the median value as the reference, no precipitation and lower precipitation could decrease the risk of TGR incidence, while higher precipitation could increase the risk of TGR incidence and last for 18 weeks. Conclusions The prevention and control measures of TGR should be implemented according to climatic conditions by the local government and health departments in order to improve the efficiency.

scholarly journals Increased coronary heart disease and stroke hospitalisations from ambient temperatures in Ontario

Heart ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 104 (8) ◽  
pp. 673-679 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Bai ◽  
Qiongsi Li ◽  
Jun Wang ◽  
Eric Lavigne ◽  
Antonio Gasparrini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Coronary Heart Disease ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Extreme Temperatures ◽  
Optimum Temperature ◽  
Optimal Temperature ◽  
Ambient Temperatures ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Heat Effects

ObjectiveTo assess the associations between ambient temperatures and hospitalisations for coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke.MethodsOur study comprised all residents living in Ontario, Canada, 1996–2013. For each of 14 health regions, we fitted a distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the cold and heat effects on hospitalisations from CHD, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke and ischaemic stroke, respectively. These effects were pooled using a multivariate meta-analysis. We computed attributable hospitalisations for cold and heat, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature (corresponding to the temperature of minimum morbidity) and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cut-offs at the 2.5th and 97.5th temperature percentiles.ResultsBetween 1996 and 2013, we identified 1.4 million hospitalisations from CHD and 355 837 from stroke across Ontario. On cold days with temperature corresponding to the 1st percentile of temperature distribution, we found a 9% increase in daily hospitalisations for CHD (95% CI 1% to 16%), 29% increase for AMI (95% CI 15% to 45%) and 11% increase for stroke (95% CI 1% to 22%) relative to days with an optimal temperature. High temperatures (the 99th percentile) also increased CHD hospitalisations by 6% (95% CI 1% to 11%) relative to the optimal temperature. These estimates translate into 2.49% of CHD hospitalisations attributable to cold and 1.20% from heat. Additionally, 1.71% of stroke hospitalisations were attributable to cold. Importantly, moderate temperatures, rather than extreme temperatures, yielded the most of the cardiovascular burdens from temperatures.ConclusionsAmbient temperatures, especially in moderate ranges, may be an important risk factor for cardiovascular-related hospitalisations.

scholarly journals The effect of air temperature on hospital admission of adults with community acquired pneumonia in Baotou, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenfang Guo ◽  
Letai Yi ◽  
Peng Wang ◽  
Baojun Wang ◽  
Minhui Li
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Admission ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Community Acquired Pneumonia ◽  
Adult Patients ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Specific Effects ◽  
Lower Temperature Range ◽  
Lower Temperature ◽  
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

AbstractThe relationship between air temperature and the hospital admission of adult patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) was analyzed. The hospitalization data pertaining to adult CAP patients (age ≥ 18 years) in two tertiary comprehensive hospitals in Baotou, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China from 2014 to 2018 and meteorological data there in the corresponding period were collected. The exposure–response relationship between the daily average temperature and the hospital admission of adult CAP patients was quantified by using a distributed lag non-linear model. A total of 4466 cases of adult patients with CAP were admitted. After eliminating some confounding factors such as relative humidity, wind speed, air pressure, long-term trend, and seasonal trend, a lower temperature was found to be associated with a higher risk of adult CAP. Compared to 21 °C, lower temperature range of 4 to –12 °C was associated with a greater number of CAP hospitalizations among those aged ≥ 65 years, and the highest relative risk (RR) was 2.80 (95% CI 1.15–6.80) at a temperature of − 10 °C. For those < 65 years, lower temperature was not related to CAP hospitalizations. Cumulative lag RRs of low temperature with CAP hospitalizations indicate that the risk associated with colder temperatures appeared at a lag of 0–7 days. For those ≥ 65 years, the cumulative RR of CAP hospitalizations over lagging days 0–5 was 1.89 (95% CI 1.01–3. 56). In brief, the lower temperature had age-specific effects on CAP hospitalizations in Baotou, China, especially among those aged ≥ 65 years.

Ambient temperatures, heatwaves and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Brisbane, Australia

2021 ◽  
pp. oemed-2020-107018
Author(s):  
Tan N Doan ◽  
Daniel Wilson ◽  
Stephen Rashford ◽  
Emma Bosley
Keyword(s):  
Cardiac Arrest ◽  
Temperature Distribution ◽  
Low Temperatures ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Reference Temperature ◽  
Ambient Temperatures ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Exposure Response ◽  
Heat Threshold ◽  
Hospital Cardiac Arrest

BackgroundThe health impacts of temperatures are gaining attention in Australia and worldwide. While a number of studies have investigated the association of temperatures with the risk of cardiovascular diseases, few examined out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and none have done so in Australia. This study examined the exposure–response relationship between temperatures, including heatwaves and OHCA in Brisbane, Australia.MethodsA quasi-Poisson regression model coupled with a distributed lag non-linear model was employed, using OHCA and meteorological data between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2019. Reference temperature was chosen to be the temperature of minimum risk (21.4°C). Heatwaves were defined as daily average temperatures at or above a heat threshold (90th, 95th, 98th, 99th percentile of the yearly temperature distribution) for at least two consecutive days.ResultsThe effect of any temperature above the reference temperature was not statistically significant; whereas low temperatures (below reference temperature) increased OHCA risk. The effect of low temperatures was delayed for 1 day, sustained up to 3 days, peaking at 2 days following exposures. Heatwaves significantly increased OHCA risk across the operational definitions. When a threshold of 95th percentile of yearly temperature distribution was used to define heatwaves, OHCA risk increased 1.25 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.50) times. When the heat threshold for defining heatwaves increased to 99th percentile, the relative risk increased to 1.48 (1.11 to 1.96).ConclusionsLow temperatures and defined heatwaves increase OHCA risk. The findings of this study have important public health implications for mitigating strategies aimed at minimising temperature-related OHCA.

scholarly journals Are children more vulnerable to mesothelioma than adults? A comparison of mesothelioma risk among children and adults exposed non-occupationally to blue asbestos at Wittenoom

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (12) ◽  
pp. 898-903 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alison Reid ◽  
Peter Franklin ◽  
Geoffrey Berry ◽  
Susan Peters ◽  
Nita Sodhi-Berry ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Asbestos Exposure ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Cumulative Exposure ◽  
Survival Models ◽  
Response Relationship ◽  
Exposure Response ◽  
Long Latency

ObjectivesThe presence of asbestos in public buildings is a legacy of past asbestos use in many developed countries. Of particular concern is the amount and current condition in schools and the vulnerability of children to mesothelioma. Our aim was to compare the risk of mesothelioma between those exposed to blue asbestos as children and as adults at Wittenoom.MethodsPublic sources were used to establish the Wittenoom residents’ cohort. Mesothelioma incidence rates per 100 000 person-years at risk were derived for those first exposed to asbestos at Wittenoom as children (<15 years) or adults separately. Proportional hazards survival models examined the slope of the exposure-response relationship between asbestos exposure and incidence of mesothelioma in different sex and age groups.ResultsThe mesothelioma rate was lower among those first exposed as children (76.8 per 100 000) than those first exposed as adults (121.3 per 100 000). Adjusting for cumulative exposure to asbestos and sex, those exposed as adults had a greater risk of mesothelioma (adjusted HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.7 to 3.7). The slope of the exposure-response relationship did not differ between those exposed as children and those exposed as adults.ConclusionWe found no greater susceptibility to mesothelioma among those first exposed to asbestos as children than those first exposed as adults. However, given the long latency of mesothelioma, and the greater years of life yet to be lived by the Wittenoom children, it is likely that there will be more cases of mesothelioma in the future among those first exposed as children.

scholarly journals Exposure–Response Relationship and Doubling Risk Doses—A Systematic Review of Occupational Workload and Osteoarthritis of the Hip

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (19) ◽  
pp. 3681 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Sun ◽  
Annette Nold ◽  
Ulrich Glitsch ◽  
Frank Bochmann
Keyword(s):  
Hip Osteoarthritis ◽  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
Cumulative Exposure ◽  
Quality Level ◽  
Response Relationship ◽  
Inclusion Criteria ◽  
Osteoarthritis Of The Hip ◽  
Workplace Interventions ◽  
Exposure Response ◽  
Occupational Workload

In this review, we critically evaluated the evidence of exposure–response relationships between occupational workload and the risk of hip osteoarthritis. The existing evidence was evaluated in order for us to extrapolate possible doubling risk doses for hip osteoarthritis. Comprehensive searches for epidemiological studies of hip osteoarthritis and occupational workload were performed in literature databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Work and Google Scholar) and recent reviews up to February 2019. In total, 85 papers met the preliminary inclusion criteria, and 10 studies indicating an exposure-response relationship between occupational workload and hip osteoarthritis were identified. All studies were assessed on the basis of their study design, defined quality scores and relevant confounders considered. An exposure–response relationship between heavy lifting and the risk of hip osteoarthritis is consistently observed among the male populations but not among the female populations. We quantified the doubling risk doses in two studies in which both an exposure–response relationship and cumulative exposure doses were stated. These two studies provided the highest quality level of all studies published to date. The estimated doubling risk doses in these two studies lie between 14,761 and 18,550 tons (daily lifting 2.2–2.8 tons, 220 days/year for 30 years). These results can be used for workplace interventions to prevent hip osteoarthritis.

scholarly journals Effects of Motorcycle Noise on Annoyance—A Cross-Sectional Study in the Alps

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 1580
Author(s):  
Christoph Lechner ◽  
David Schnaiter ◽  
Uwe Siebert ◽  
Stephan Böse-O’Reilly
Keyword(s):  
State Government ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Traffic Noise ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Road Traffic Noise ◽  
Response Curves ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Exposure Response ◽  
Background Exposure ◽  
Noise Assessment

Motorcycle noise is an increasing noise problem, especially in Alpine valleys with winding roads and low environmental noise. The annoyance response to motorcycle engine noise is extraordinarily high in comparison to other traffic noise and cannot be explained by standard noise assessment curves. Therefore, the Tyrolean state government decided to initiate a multi-purpose study. Exposures were calculated based on sound-measurements taken across the entire district of Reutte in the western part of the State of Tyrol and a telephone survey (n = 545) was conducted with regional participants. The influence of demographic characteristics; sensitivity to noise; attitudes towards motorcycles and background noise on the annoyance was examined using bivariate analyses. In addition; exposure-response curves and their 95% confidence intervals with cut-off points of 60% and 72% for “highly annoyed” were created. The exposure annoyance response curves for motorcycle noise show a shift of more than 30 dB in annoyance reaction compared to other road traffic noise. The annoyance response to motorcycle noise in this Alpine region is concentrated on summer Sundays and Saturdays and is independent of the background exposure caused by other road traffic

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